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Which horse film is your favorite?
This poll is closed.
Black Beauty 2 1.06%
A Talking Pony!?! 4 2.13%
Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor 117 62.23%
War Horse 11 5.85%
Mr. Hands 54 28.72%
Total: 188 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

The most hypervocal anti-lockdown people in my local subreddit were all into gyms as a lifestyle so I'm sure you can read some stuff into that. One guy would PM people lists of gyms violating safety restrictions like we were in Prohibition.

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enki42
Jun 11, 2001
#ATMLIVESMATTER

Put this Nazi-lover on ignore immediately!
I think a lot of it is Joe Rogan fans, and a fair amount of the old-school "I won't put anything unnatural in my body" anti-vaxx types.

My gym (which I've paused my membership on since March 2020) sent out an e-mail basically amounting to saying they were not complying with the vaccination passport order and would let you in if you did a rapid test every 2 weeks. Was definitely a good incentive to cancel my membership.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

And what's up with jogging trails, why bother when you can run laps around your bedroom.

Why go to a pool or the lake with a bunch of strangers I mean you have a bathtub right there?

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Phigs posted:

Our government decided to ignore Pfizer in favor of AZ largely because of connections aka corruption.

No it was because we have the capacity to manufacture AZ and home brewing was back in vogue after the pandemic supply chain shocks left us with very scarce levels of critical materials, notably fuel, which at one point we had less than a month's reserve of, but everybody was too busy fighting over toilet paper to notice.

Arc Hammer
Mar 4, 2013

Got any deathsticks?

Rhodo Dendron posted:

What is this obsession with gyms? What is the irresistible allure that requires you to pay a hefty subscription fee to embarass yourself in a building full of smelly, judgemental strangers for something you could do in the comfort of your own home or neighborhood? There's a reason why the stereotype of "has a gym subscription even though they only went once and makes up excuses to not cancel it" exists.

I mean, is $16/week really a "hefty subscription fee"? Adult gyms aren't really the same as high school fitness rooms. Most people won't give two shits about you because they're working on themselves. Sure you'll get narcissists and assholes on occasion but even then they're more interested in their instagram selfies than they are bullying other people minding their own business.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth
I started going to the gym again back at the beginning of the summer, pre-delta. It was really wonderful. We live in a ~700 square foot apartment with multiple cats and so indoor exercise is pretty lovely. Outdoor is ok but you're limited by weather and there's no equipment. Going back to the gym was so, so nice both in terms of physical health and mental health.

Haven't been for the last 2 months, but delta is slowly receding in my state and more so in my region so I expect we'll be able to go back within a few weeks. I'm really looking forward to it.

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!
fwiw, from the USDA mailing list I'm on

quote:

Confirmation of COVID-19 in Ferret in Florida

Contact:
APHISpress@usda.gov

Washington, D.C., September 24, 2021 -- The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) today announced confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) in a ferret in Florida. This is the first ferret confirmed with the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the United States. A ferret was previously reported with the virus in Slovenia.

Samples from the ferret were taken after it showed clinical signs including sneezing and coughing. It is suspected that the ferret acquired the infection from a person with COVID-19.

Samples from the ferret tested presumptive positive at Florida’s Bronson Animal Disease Diagnostic Laboratory and the case was confirmed at NVSL. NVSL serves as an international reference laboratory and provides expertise and guidance on diagnostic techniques, as well as confirmatory testing for foreign and emerging animal diseases. Such testing is required for certain animal diseases in the United States in order to comply with national and international reporting procedures. The World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) considers SARS-CoV-2 an emerging disease, and therefore USDA must report confirmed U.S. animal infections to the OIE.

SARS-CoV-2 infections have been reported in a small number of animal species worldwide, mostly in animals that had close contact with a person with COVID-19. At this time, routine testing of animals is not recommended. State, Tribal, local and territorial animal health and public health officials will work with USDA and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to make determinations about whether animals should be tested for SARS-CoV-2, using a One Health approach.

USDA will announce cases of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 in animals each time the virus is found in a new species. Confirmed cases in animals are posted at https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/sa_one_health/sars-cov-2-animals-us.

While additional animals may test positive as infections continue in people, it is important to note that performing this animal testing does not reduce the availability of tests for humans.

We are still learning about SARS-CoV-2 in animals. Based on the information available, the risk of animals spreading the virus to people is considered to be low.

People with COVID-19 can spread the virus to animals during close contact. It is important for people with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 to avoid contact with pets and other animals to protect them from possible infection.

For more information about COVID-19 and animals and recommendations for pet owners and people who work around animals, visit https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/animals/pets-other-animals.html

For more information about how and when to test animals, visit https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/animals/animal-testing.html and https://www.aphis.usda.gov/animal_health/one_health/downloads/faq-public-on-companion-animal-testing.pdf

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

Fritz the Horse posted:

fwiw, from the USDA mailing list I'm on

This does not surprise me, as ferrets are especially vulnerable to human colds already, and they can get really hosed up by them.

Sub Par
Jul 18, 2001


Dinosaur Gum

Professor Beetus posted:

This does not surprise me, as ferrets are especially vulnerable to human colds already, and they can get really hosed up by them.

Yeah in Denmark they killed 17 million mink this time last year because of possible COVID infection.

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

Sub Par posted:

Yeah in Denmark they killed 17 million mink this time last year because of possible COVID infection.

Oh poo poo yeah I remember that. Poor critters.

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010
This happened in my area just last week:



https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/09/24/animals-national-zoo-covid/

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Professor Beetus posted:

Oh poo poo yeah I remember that. Poor critters.

They were fur mink so were gonna die horribly anyway.

Rhodo Dendron
Sep 20, 2021

by sebmojo

Arc Hammer posted:

I mean, is $16/week really a "hefty subscription fee"?

Uh, holy poo poo, yes!? That's $64/month and $832/annually, that's insane. I don't spend that much on cat supplies or internet or cell phone access.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth
Huh looks like The View hosts who 'tested positive' the other day did not, in fact, test positive.

https://jezebel.com/so-it-turns-out-the-view-hosts-did-not-test-positive-fo-1847752891

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

Being in a gym is one of my happiest places.

HelloSailorSign
Jan 27, 2011

Fritz the Horse posted:

fwiw, from the USDA mailing list I'm on

Yeah mustelids are part of the group of animals who've been known to be capable of regularly being coming infected with COVID, demonstrating clinical signs, and passing it on. I'm actually surprised this is the first in the states, though I'd wager it's more an issue that people simply haven't gotten their ferrets tested.

Also 450 posts since I last read, wtf have you all been doing.

Arc Hammer
Mar 4, 2013

Got any deathsticks?

Rhodo Dendron posted:

Uh, holy poo poo, yes!? That's $64/month and $832/annually, that's insane. I don't spend that much on cat supplies or internet or cell phone access.

What would you consider affordable then? Canada funny money only goes so far.

Arc Hammer fucked around with this message at 20:15 on Sep 27, 2021

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

My LA Fitness membership is 29 dollars a month and is a huge bargain if you actually use it. Telling yourself that the reason you don't use your gym membership is because of some kind of perceived gym culture is a pretty sorry excuse for not going in my opinion.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Wrong thread… but I think I might be getting sick! :cry:

mawarannahr fucked around with this message at 20:32 on Sep 27, 2021

Tacier
Jul 22, 2003

Apologies if this has been covered, but based on this article it sounds like our best data so far suggests that 100% of Covid cases, mild or severe, result in some amount of persistent brain damage of unknown duration.

https://theconversation.com/prelimi...it-lasts-166145

Not trying to fearmonger, but is there something I’m missing or is this horrifying news? The sample size is huge and they have baseline scans for everyone involved in the study.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Tacier posted:

Apologies if this has been covered, but based on this article it sounds like our best data so far suggests that 100% of Covid cases, mild or severe, result in some amount of persistent brain damage of unknown duration.

https://theconversation.com/prelimi...it-lasts-166145

Not trying to fearmonger, but is there something I’m missing or is this horrifying news? The sample size is huge and they have baseline scans for everyone involved in the study.

Yikes! Yeah, that is horrifying. We should take some steps to avoid this, I think!

Phylodox
Mar 30, 2006



College Slice

Arc Hammer posted:

What would you consider affordable then? Canada funny money only goes so far.

I’m from Quebec and I pay $20 a month and my wife can accompany me for free.

StrangeThing
Aug 23, 2021

by Hand Knit

Tacier posted:

Apologies if this has been covered, but based on this article it sounds like our best data so far suggests that 100% of Covid cases, mild or severe, result in some amount of persistent brain damage of unknown duration.

https://theconversation.com/prelimi...it-lasts-166145

Not trying to fearmonger, but is there something I’m missing or is this horrifying news? The sample size is huge and they have baseline scans for everyone involved in the study.

Did you actually read this article? It’s filled with qualifiers like needing further study and not knowing whether this is permanent. It is concerning though.

Why do doomers on SA take the slightest bit of bad news and extrapolate the findings?

Arc Hammer
Mar 4, 2013

Got any deathsticks?

Phylodox posted:

I’m from Quebec and I pay $20 a month and my wife can accompany me for free.

Local gym or a franchise? I'm going to Goodlife, so it's $33 bi-weekly.

Phylodox
Mar 30, 2006



College Slice

Arc Hammer posted:

Local gym or a franchise? I'm going to Goodlife, so it's $33 bi-weekly.

Both? It’s a local franchise gym. It only exists in my surrounding area, but there are many locations.

-Blackadder-
Jan 2, 2007

Game....Blouses.

Tacier posted:

Apologies if this has been covered, but based on this article it sounds like our best data so far suggests that 100% of Covid cases, mild or severe, result in some amount of persistent brain damage of unknown duration.

https://theconversation.com/prelimi...it-lasts-166145

Not trying to fearmonger, but is there something I’m missing or is this horrifying news? The sample size is huge and they have baseline scans for everyone involved in the study.

PostNouveau posted:

Yikes! Yeah, that is horrifying. We should take some steps to avoid this, I think!

....And on that note....

https://twitter.com/MonicaGandhi9/status/1440698563051196425?s=20
I've been wondering what Conservatives next big COVID related stance would be after going from anti-mask to anti-vaccine to pro-ivermectin to hyperfocusing on monoclonal antibodies, in their tireless efforts to take the opposite side of whatever the Liberal stance is. I guessed that their next pivot was going to be literally just Pro-COVID, but it looks like the Emily Oster gang tag crew has beat them to it.

-Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 20:57 on Sep 27, 2021

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

-Blackadder- posted:

....And on that note....

https://twitter.com/MonicaGandhi9/status/1440698563051196425?s=20
I've been wondering what Conservatives next big COVID related stance would be after going from anti-mask to anti-vaccine to pro-ivermectin to hyperfocusing on monoclonal antibodies, in their tireless efforts to take the opposite side of whatever the Liberal stance is. I guessed that their next pivot was going to be literally just Pro-COVID, but it looks like the Emily Oster gang tag crew has beat them to it.

Tbh considering that anti-intellectualism is such a big conservative plank, if it does turn out that covid does permanent brain damage, they might just consider it another thing to do to own the libs, although tbh I thought getting covid to own the libs was already a thing that was happening.

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!

Tacier posted:

Apologies if this has been covered, but based on this article it sounds like our best data so far suggests that 100% of Covid cases, mild or severe, result in some amount of persistent brain damage of unknown duration.

https://theconversation.com/prelimi...it-lasts-166145

Not trying to fearmonger, but is there something I’m missing or is this horrifying news? The sample size is huge and they have baseline scans for everyone involved in the study.

(bolding mine)

That's not what the preprint actually says, and it's a preprint.

In particular the "100% of cases" and "persistent" parts of your statement don't appear correct. The r-values are lowish but I believe that's typical for health sciences. It doesn't mean that literally everyone who catches COVID has brain damage, it means that a similar frequency of brain damage is seen in the "hospitalized with severe COVID" population and the mild cases.

Also, the abstract of the preprint concludes:

quote:

These brain imaging results may be the in vivo hallmarks of a degenerative spread of the disease — or of the virus itself — via olfactory pathways (a possible entry point of the virus to the central nervous system being via the olfactory mucosa), or of neuroinflammatory events due to the infection, or of the loss of sensory input due to anosmia. Whether this deleterious impact can be partially reversed, for instance after improvement of the hyposmic symptoms, or whether these are effects that will persist in the long term, remains to be investigated with additional follow up.

It might even be loss of sensory input from anosmia and it's unknown whether the observed changes in the brain persist long-term.

edit: I'm sure I'm missing some nuances here because that type of stuff is not at all my field but I don't think your conclusion follows from the data.

Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 21:10 on Sep 27, 2021

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
#ATMLIVESMATTER

Put this Nazi-lover on ignore immediately!

-Blackadder- posted:

I've been wondering what Conservatives next big COVID related stance would be after going from anti-mask to anti-vaccine to pro-ivermectin to hyperfocusing on monoclonal antibodies, in their tireless efforts to take the opposite side of whatever the Liberal stance is. I guessed that their next pivot was going to be literally just Pro-COVID, but it looks like the Emily Oster gang tag crew has beat them to it.

Oh, this is nothing new, they've been doing the "we have to learn to live with it" thing for ages at this point. In a sense I think they're right, I think full on elimination worldwide is a pipe dream given how easily COVID spreads, and there's no obvious path to herd immunity anywhere right now, even places with high vaccine uptake, but they act like endemicity is like Michael Scott declaring bankruptcy and they can just declare that covid is endemic.

Eventually it's inevitable that we find an equilibrium, whether it's the virus becoming less severe (anyone counting on this is insane, but it could happen), vaccine uptake combined with natural immunity keeps transmission / severe outcomes low enough that it's less of a pressing concern, improving our healthcare systems so they're not overwhelmed with COVID cases whenever there's a wave (lol at this actually happening).

mod sassinator
Dec 13, 2006
I came here to Kick Ass and Chew Bubblegum,
and I'm All out of Ass

enki42 posted:

Eventually it's inevitable that we find an equilibrium, whether it's the virus becoming less severe (anyone counting on this is insane, but it could happen), vaccine uptake combined with natural immunity keeps transmission / severe outcomes low enough that it's less of a pressing concern, improving our healthcare systems so they're not overwhelmed with COVID cases whenever there's a wave (lol at this actually happening).

None of this guaranteed, and if we're just making pie in the sky fantasy fiction about COVID's future then you have to also add, "a vaccine resistant variant emerges and we are back to March 2020 for everyone again". Two thirds of epidemiologists polled about their opinion on vaccine evading variants expect one to emerge in a year...

Our life expectancy has dropped about two years already (https://nypost.com/2021/09/27/life-expectancy-of-american-men-fell-2-years-amid-pandemic-study/). How much worse do you think it's going to get if we go for more years of this bungled response attempting to 'live' with the virus? Will your children be lucky to see age 60? The current COVID strategy of voluntary vaccination, voluntary NPI usage, no lockdowns or social distancing mandates that actually drive down Rt is a disaster.

Epicurius
Apr 10, 2010
College Slice

-Blackadder- posted:

....And on that note....

https://twitter.com/MonicaGandhi9/status/1440698563051196425?s=20
I've been wondering what Conservatives next big COVID related stance would be after going from anti-mask to anti-vaccine to pro-ivermectin to hyperfocusing on monoclonal antibodies, in their tireless efforts to take the opposite side of whatever the Liberal stance is. I guessed that their next pivot was going to be literally just Pro-COVID, but it looks like the Emily Oster gang tag crew has beat them to it.

She's probably right. It's very difficult to actually wipe out diseases, especially ones that have animal reservoirs. I mean, the bubonic plague is still a thing.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
#ATMLIVESMATTER

Put this Nazi-lover on ignore immediately!

mod sassinator posted:

None of this guaranteed, and if we're just making pie in the sky fantasy fiction about COVID's future then you have to also add, "a vaccine resistant variant emerges and we are back to March 2020 for everyone again". Two thirds of epidemiologists polled about their opinion on vaccine evading variants expect one to emerge in a year...

I'd say at a minimum there will inevitably be solutions to overwhelmed healthcare systems, that's the one aspect that is going to be increasingly unacceptable to "live with". Even most restriction-adverse governments (unless you're Florida or other extreme examples) will impose restrictions to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. Eventually their hand is going to be forced if surgery backlogs continue to grow and failure to respond to COVID has measurable, obvious impacts beyond just COVID patients (which is already happening but there's not a lot of data on now).

quote:

Our life expectancy has dropped about two years already (https://nypost.com/2021/09/27/life-expectancy-of-american-men-fell-2-years-amid-pandemic-study/). How much worse do you think it's going to get if we go for more years of this bungled response attempting to 'live' with the virus? Will your children be lucky to see age 60? The current COVID strategy of voluntary vaccination, voluntary NPI usage, no lockdowns or social distancing mandates that actually drive down Rt is a disaster.

Remember not everyone is in the states, many of us are in environments where while they're far from zero covid, aren't leaving everything 100% up to the individual like most of the U.S. is. No one is going to disagree with you that doing what the country that has the literal worst COVID response in the developed world (likely the whole world, I just don't know enough to say that) is a horrible strategy to pick.

mod sassinator
Dec 13, 2006
I came here to Kick Ass and Chew Bubblegum,
and I'm All out of Ass

enki42 posted:

Remember not everyone is in the states, many of us are in environments where while they're far from zero covid, aren't leaving everything 100% up to the individual like most of the U.S. is. No one is going to disagree with you that doing what the country that has the literal worst COVID response in the developed world (likely the whole world, I just don't know enough to say that) is a horrible strategy to pick.

It doesn't matter--the vaccine evading variant will come from Florida / Mississippi / Ohio / New York / etc. and spread around the world in months, just like the alpha variant and delta variant. You can kid yourself that your country is special or somehow safe but it will eventually reach you without strict quarantine and travel restrictions like China is implementing.

Every country that decides to 'live' with the virus is going to be as vulnerable and eventually as bad as the worst hit one--the virus is a bit of RNA and has no concept or care about geographic borders. People really need to think of this thing as a totally unemotional and determined killing maching, like a Terminator. It will kill children, unvaccinated, vaccinated, etc. alike if we give it the opportunity. It will stop at nothing to hunt them down to the ends of the earth where planes travel and restrictions are lax.

HelloSailorSign
Jan 27, 2011

Fritz the Horse posted:

In particular the "100% of cases" and "persistent" parts of your statement don't appear correct. The r-values are lowish but I believe that's typical for health sciences. It doesn't mean that literally everyone who catches COVID has brain damage, it means that a similar frequency of brain damage is seen in the "hospitalized with severe COVID" population and the mild cases.

Also, the abstract of the preprint concludes:

It might even be loss of sensory input from anosmia and it's unknown whether the observed changes in the brain persist long-term.

Right, this study should be taken with a large grain of salt in regards to it being a new and scary thing that COVID is capable of. There are a lot of diseases out there we are all exposed to regularly that could do similar.

Their observations are correct between their two groups (even if their overlaps are a bit ehhh), but the big thing here that's missing is the comparison to other illnesses and other conditions (that aren't infectious or neurodegenerative conditions) that could impact how the brain functions.

We all know that loss of smell/taste is a significant symptom of COVID, whether mild or severe. The brain is not a slow moving organ, it's constantly and frequently changing and altering itself in response to stimulation... or importantly here, lack thereof. Neuroplasticity is a very large area of research.

In the non-illness side, the brain can change fairly rapidly when amputation or transection of nerves occurs. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19737843/ The question that I've not seen answered yet regarding COVID and anosmia is - is it the nerve getting toasted, or the sensory cells? Given the majority of people who lose sense of taste/smell get it back and get it back similar to before, could this suggest it may be the peripheral nerve being impacted if the linked study discussed transection of nerves and how later they're not as good as before? Or is that simply an aspect of such an important sense being essentially lost for 1-2 weeks (at least)? Remember too that smell has a huge influence on our emotional and memory states, and the loss of that sense could lead to a loss of input for those areas as well. We also have fast changes to the brain - including those visible to various brain scans - from a limb being casted https://www.cell.com/neuron/pdfExtended/S0896-6273(20)30353-6, likely because of a loss of use. Much like a muscle shrinking when not in use but capable of enlarging over time when needed, the brain may do the same. But, atrophy is not necessarily equivalent to damage.

On the illness side, influenza has been associated with neurological damage https://www.the-scientist.com/features/can-the-flu-and-other-viruses-cause-neurodegeneration--65498 that could take years to demonstrate. Could COVID be added to this list? Possibly! One feature to note though is that certain strains of influenza are noted to be able to bypass the blood brain barrier, and as of yet, COVID has not been reliably detected in brain tissue from those who've died from it https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2021/06/signs-of-inflammation-in-brains-of-people-who-died-of-covid-19.html https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2021/01/14/taking-a-closer-look-at-the-effects-of-covid-19-on-the-brain/. COVID's impacts seem to be more likely due to the issues it causes via clotting abnormalities and a severe systemic inflammatory response, which also would fit with the myocarditis issues seen in both true COVID and vaccination, that COVID simply can cause a significant inflammatory reaction and when that happens, loads of organ systems get impacted, but it's not necessarily because COVID is special, it's because we've done failingly little to research the diseases we've lived with for generations.

-Blackadder-
Jan 2, 2007

Game....Blouses.

mod sassinator posted:

None of this guaranteed, and if we're just making pie in the sky fantasy fiction about COVID's future then you have to also add, "a vaccine resistant variant emerges and we are back to March 2020 for everyone again". Two thirds of epidemiologists polled about their opinion on vaccine evading variants expect one to emerge in a year...

Our life expectancy has dropped about two years already (https://nypost.com/2021/09/27/life-expectancy-of-american-men-fell-2-years-amid-pandemic-study/). How much worse do you think it's going to get if we go for more years of this bungled response attempting to 'live' with the virus? Will your children be lucky to see age 60? The current COVID strategy of voluntary vaccination, voluntary NPI usage, no lockdowns or social distancing mandates that actually drive down Rt is a disaster.

Yeah, I've been reading about Evolutionary Selection Pressure in Viruses and everyone seems to agree that Sars-CoV-2 is getting plenty of practice coming up with a version of itself that can escape our artificial defenses and will do so, if not soon, then almost inevitably on a long enough timeline. Unfortunately, as mentioned a few pages back there doesn't seem to be as large a consensus on if it will evolve to be less deadly.

Here's an interesting article...

scientific american posted:

How will the Coronavirus evolve?

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-will-the-coronavirus-evolve/

With declining rates of new infections and the rollout of vaccines, some are beginning to speak of an end to COVID-19. But that rhetoric, in my opinion, is ill-considered and premature. Based on what we know now of SARS-CoV-2, it may no longer be a question of months before an end to the pandemic but a question of years, if not decades. We should plan for it.

Viruses exist to thrive. Those that infect humans are faced with an impressive array of defensive weaponry, not just our natural adaptive immunity but also our intelligently designed defenses—vaccines, drugs and social controls. For a virus to survive, it must be adapted to its chosen ecological niche—in this case, us—and capable of further intricate adaptation to overcome our best efforts at prevention and treatment.

Initially, many assumed that coronaviruses in general and SARS-CoV-2 in particular were more stable and less prone to adaptation than other RNA viruses because of their error-proofing mechanisms. But we have since been proven wrong. Last summer, a researcher in Texas noticed that a mutated SARS-CoV-2 virus with a substitution in the spike protein had overtaken previous forms to become the dominant strain. Since then, multiple new variants have emerged with mutations that can make the virus more transmissible, more lethal and more able to evade our immune defenses.

These variants have seemingly been forged in fires of our own making. In Boston, a middle-aged man struggled with a COVID-19 infection for five months before succumbing to the disease. He was undergoing treatment with immunosuppressive drugs when he fell ill, and, during his illness, he received multiple rounds of additional treatment, with remdesivir nonimmune gamma globulin, and with monoclonal antibodies. Under this intense immune pressure, key mutations in the virus emerged. The doctors and scientists who witnessed their birth called it “accelerated viral evolution.”

Other viruses, like influenza, have shown themselves similarly capable of rapid evolution when faced with our best defenses. Indeed, based on what we’ve seen of SARS-CoV-2 and its capacity for variation, I’d say this virus is much more like influenza than any other virus known to date.

Which means influenza’s evolutionary pathway may hold important clues about the road COVID-19 will follow.

Influenza, as we know, comes and goes in seasonal waves in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. In the tropics it occurs throughout the year, with only shallow peaks. This pattern mimics what we know of cold-causing coronaviruses, which, ever since their discovery in the 1960s, have returned annually to infect us. For the flu, antigenic drift—the accumulation of small genetic changes in the virus—has been the primary explanation for recurrent seasonal epidemics. Dominant flu strains evolve from year to year, and the immunity we develop in response to a previous strain has only a muted effect on the new strain. We’ve learned more recently that immunity to influenza also fades, often disappearing within a year, which also makes us susceptible to reinfection.

We used to believe that the cold-causing coronaviruses were stable—meaning no antigenic drift—but returned yearly because of faded immune protection. But over the past year, our understanding of coronaviruses has improved and we now know that at least one of the cold-causing coronaviruses, designated 229E, undergoes antigenic drift similar to that of influenza.

SARS-CoV-2, like 229E, has already shown that it can drift. But, like influenza, it has also shown itself capable of much more abrupt and substantial changes. One way these major changes happen occurs when a virus jumps to a new population, for example from animals to humans or back again. When a virus makes this jump, big things—and often bad things—materialize. Both influenza and SARS-CoV-2 have huge animal reservoirs. Coronaviruses have infected every type of vertebrate, from whales and bats to salamanders and snakes. Influenza is similar. This means they both have the potential to evolve to become much more damaging to our population. The two previous coronavirus outbreaks both started when coronaviruses jumped from animals to humans, from civet cats in 2003 with SARS and from camels with MERS in 2012. The 1918 influenza pandemic likely started with a jump from animals too.

If we’re lucky, SARS-CoV-2 will evolve, like the 1918 virus dubbed the “Spanish flu,” to become less lethal. After infecting an estimated 500 million worldwide and killing at least 50 million, the 1918 flu virus receded. But hope that this coronavirus will attenuate over time is no guarantee that it will. We already know that coronaviruses can become much more lethal; we need look no further than SARS-CoV-1, which killed 50 percent of those aged 65 and older, and MERS, which killed one out of three infected.

So where does that leave us?

First, we must accept the harsh truth told by this virus and its variants. We can expect it to come back—potentially for years to come—and we need to prepare ourselves for the possibility that when it does, it may be more lethal and even more transmissible than the variants that exist today. We must adjust our vaccine development pipelines and public health interventions to account for emergent and future variations. Much like what has been proposed with influenza, we must develop COVID risk assessment tools that can identify the viral properties of dominant strains—how transmissible they may be or how resistant they are to current drugs or vaccines—to help us align our public health response with the level of risk. Otherwise, we’ll be setting ourselves up for failure once more.

I have often likened SARS-CoV-2 to the mythical Proteus in Homer’s Odyssey. Like Proteus, SARS-CoV-2 is the quintessential shape-shifter, able to alter its form whenever grasped. It is only through sheer persistence that Menelaus, the great hero, is able to wrestle Proteus to a standstill. By claiming victory too soon, we risk losing our battle with this shape-shifting virus, a tragedy that would unfold this time not in words but in many more millions of lives lost.

February 19, 2021

So basically either we get serious about eventual eradication, or the whole planet makes a post on facebook asking for prayers and donations to our gofundme that the virus actually does eventually attenuate.

-Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 23:18 on Sep 27, 2021

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

mod sassinator posted:

It doesn't matter--the vaccine evading variant will come from Florida / Mississippi / Ohio / New York / etc. and spread around the world in months, just like the alpha variant and delta variant. You can kid yourself that your country is special or somehow safe but it will eventually reach you without strict quarantine and travel restrictions like China is implementing.

Every country that decides to 'live' with the virus is going to be as vulnerable and eventually as bad as the worst hit one--the virus is a bit of RNA and has no concept or care about geographic borders. People really need to think of this thing as a totally unemotional and determined killing maching, like a Terminator. It will kill children, unvaccinated, vaccinated, etc. alike if we give it the opportunity. It will stop at nothing to hunt them down to the ends of the earth where planes travel and restrictions are lax.

Bolded is a complete alarmist take that I don't think has any basis in the current science. It's a possibility and I'm not going to discount that but it's a worst case scenario and not a 100% eventuality that covid does what you are describing, because it is not in fact, a Terminator. You are free to believe whatever you want, but other posters in here are doing much more complex and nuanced breakdowns of the data and it doesn't seem like you are being receptive to any of it.

Again, I'm not discounting a worst case scenario, and I don't believe current measures are acceptable in the United States and I detest the conditions in our society that lead to this.

Regardless, if covid isn't going to be eradicated, society will either find a way to live with it, or collapse. If you're already inclined to think that we're on a sinking ship (for me personally it depends on the day of the week and if I'm up on my meds), but there is literally no reason at this point to predict or believe that the virus will just get deadlier and deadlier and more evasive and that vaccines won't be able to keep up, that's literally worst case doomsday scenario stuff. I don't see too many reasons to be optimistic about our responses to covid improving all that much, but I am not going to spend every day dwelling on the fact that this could be much worse, and I would suggest others try to do the same for themselves.

If you feel that the possibility of this getting much worse means that you take more precautions for yourself and that we need stricter NPIs to deal with the current spread, I agree with you 100%, and while the thread doesn't necessarily have a consensus, I am pretty sure most of us are well aware that the current measures are not adequate to stop the spread of the virus.

Just my thoughts as a poster, and your feelings are absolutely valid, I just hope maybe you can pull up a little from the bleak hopelessness. There are times I absolutely feel the same, but for my long term health I do try to make sure that I am not interpreting things through the worst case lens because it's seriously unhealthy to do all the time. I know it's a lot of words but I do hope you read it, because I am trying to make sure I do respond thoughtfully to everyone I reply to in here. I really do care about other people and just want to make sure we're doing our best even when our society fails us.

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


mod sassinator posted:

People really need to think of this thing as a totally unemotional and determined killing maching, like a Terminator. It will kill children, unvaccinated, vaccinated, etc. alike if we give it the opportunity. It will stop at nothing to hunt them down to the ends of the earth where planes travel and restrictions are lax.

We can't even get societies to believe climate change is real enough to warrant deep investment in mitigation measures today.

I for one am not holding my breath that we'll take covid, anthropogenic climate change, school shootings, racial injustice, wealth inequality, any of this poo poo seriously as a society.

mod sassinator
Dec 13, 2006
I came here to Kick Ass and Chew Bubblegum,
and I'm All out of Ass

Professor Beetus posted:

Bolded is a complete alarmist take that I don't think has any basis in the current science. It's a possibility and I'm not going to discount that but it's a worst case scenario and not a 100% eventuality that covid does what you are describing, because it is not in fact, a Terminator. You are free to believe whatever you want, but other posters in here are doing much more complex and nuanced breakdowns of the data and it doesn't seem like you are being receptive to any of it.

Again, I'm not discounting a worst case scenario, and I don't believe current measures are acceptable in the United States and I detest the conditions in our society that lead to this.

Regardless, if covid isn't going to be eradicated, society will either find a way to live with it, or collapse. If you're already inclined to think that we're on a sinking ship (for me personally it depends on the day of the week and if I'm up on my meds), but there is literally no reason at this point to predict or believe that the virus will just get deadlier and deadlier and more evasive and that vaccines won't be able to keep up, that's literally worst case doomsday scenario stuff. I don't see too many reasons to be optimistic about our responses to covid improving all that much, but I am not going to spend every day dwelling on the fact that this could be much worse, and I would suggest others try to do the same for themselves.

If you feel that the possibility of this getting much worse means that you take more precautions for yourself and that we need stricter NPIs to deal with the current spread, I agree with you 100%, and while the thread doesn't necessarily have a consensus, I am pretty sure most of us are well aware that the current measures are not adequate to stop the spread of the virus.

Just my thoughts as a poster, and your feelings are absolutely valid, I just hope maybe you can pull up a little from the bleak hopelessness. There are times I absolutely feel the same, but for my long term health I do try to make sure that I am not interpreting things through the worst case lens because it's seriously unhealthy to do all the time. I know it's a lot of words but I do hope you read it, because I am trying to make sure I do respond thoughtfully to everyone I reply to in here. I really do care about other people and just want to make sure we're doing our best even when our society fails us.

Dude what the gently caress? I'm saying COVID is not an organism. It doesn't stop attacking us because it's tired or wants to show some mercy.

I did not say COVID is going to evolve into something that kills everyone. I said it kills everyone indiscriminately, that is without any reason or care or even knowledge that it is doing so.

You can't outsmart COVID. You can't outrun it. You can't bargain with it--i.e. you can't shake some magic totem of 'look we're outside!' or 'it's fine, we're 6 foot distance apart'. It is a lifeless fragment of RNA that if it gets into the right cells in your body and your immune systems roll the dice the wrong way, it can kill you. No different from nerve gas, a bullet, or anything else modern man has invented to end life without a second thought.

Luckily it's only killing people at about a 1-2% CFR right now and there's no indication that will radically increase or change. BUT, look at what that 1-2% rate has already done--700k dead Americans and climbing. This is nothing to downplay or ignore.

What in the gently caress are you going on about trying to tell someone they're in 'bleak hopelessness'? Keep your armchair psychology to yourself, dude. I don't know if it's a maladaptive response, your own insecurity with the situation, or what... but it is not warranted or needed. You are entirely projecting your own insecurity onto my response here.

quote:

Regardless, if covid isn't going to be eradicated, society will either find a way to live with it, or collapse.

Where did you get that I said there are only two ends here, live with it or collapse? You are the one catastrophizing here and deciding this is a binary situation with only those two outcomes.

There are plenty of outcomes besides those two--IMHO we're going to probably thread the needle of half the country thriving and living like there is no pandemic, while the other half quietly suffers and their quality of life deteriorates further. The rich and powerful have access to the best treatments, boosters, etc. and will continue to get access to them. Their lives will be great, and they will exert their power and influence to force the less fortunate to throw themselves into the gears of the machine that keeps them happy and content. Society isn't going to collapse, we're just going to see more and more outrageous inequality of death and disability as the pandemic continues.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

mod sassinator posted:

You can't outsmart COVID. You can't outrun it. You can't bargain with it--i.e. you can't shake some magic totem of 'look we're outside!' or 'it's fine, we're 6 foot distance apart'. It is a lifeless fragment of RNA that if it gets into the right cells in your body and your immune systems roll the dice the wrong way, it can kill you. No different from nerve gas, a bullet, or anything else modern man has invented to end life without a second thought.

Speaking of "outside" I think you need to go there for a bit

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Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

freebooter posted:

Speaking of "outside" I think you need to go there for a bit

He’s been consistently boosting fake news and weird apocalypse fan fiction right from the start. Nothing he posts is remotely tethered to reality.

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