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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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Rhodo Dendron posted:Uh, holy poo poo, yes!? That's $64/month and $832/annually, that's insane. I don't spend that much on cat supplies or internet or cell phone access. Phylodox posted:I’m from Quebec and I pay $20 a month and my wife can accompany me for free. This is getting off-topic but in American cities some of the trendier (e.g. Crossfit) gyms cost $300/month, so yeah, $64 a month is not out of range for here. I paid $50/m to use my university employer gym, but then last April I spent probably $1000 on lumber and hardware to build a rack for myself that I thought I'd use for 3 months and have now been using for well over 18... e: can't risk being off-topic *and* no pet tax 
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Sep 28, 2021 00:17
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Professor Beetus posted:Just my thoughts as a poster, and your feelings are absolutely valid, I just hope maybe you can pull up a little from the bleak hopelessness. There's a point at which the validity of feelings is irrelevant when we're talking about people who have consistently demonstrated that not only do they not understand virology or history, they are reluctant to teaching and aggressively smug about their ignorance. We are discussing reality here, not a game of Plague, Inc. COVID isn't special, it's the latest cross-over event in our species who has dealt with cross-over events for it's entire existence. Viruses are prevalent not only in humans, but non-human primates, mammals, reptiles, fish, insects, plants... just about every living thing on this planet has a host of viruses that can infect it. We've lived with viruses for thousands of years, we will likely live with them for thousands more (assuming no complete civilization destruction which obviously is not guaranteed due to gestures wildly). "Artificial" protection has me  as well - we're protecting ourselves against the very thing that allows COVID to infect us. Without the spike protein in its general configuration... COVID would need to have an entirely different binding mechanism. There are only so many ways one can design the lock and key mechanism of protein/enzyme configurations. A comment like that also demonstrates a lack of understanding about virology and viral evolution.
HelloSailorSign fucked around with this message at 00:37 on Sep 28, 2021 |
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Sep 28, 2021 00:19
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mod sassinator posted:Dude what the gently caress? I'm saying COVID is not an organism. It doesn't stop attacking us because it's tired or wants to show some mercy. I think you need to take a break. quote:You can't outsmart COVID. You can't outrun it. You can't bargain with it--i.e. you can't shake some magic totem of 'look we're outside!' or 'it's fine, we're 6 foot distance apart'. It is a lifeless fragment of RNA that if it gets into the right cells in your body and your immune systems roll the dice the wrong way, it can kill you. No different from nerve gas, a bullet, or anything else modern man has invented to end life without a second thought. This is doomer horseshit, it doesn't kill indiscriminately, worse outcomes are commonly predicted by age or confounding risk factors. It does kill everyone! You are correct on that, but not "indiscriminately." And being outside, six feet apart, wearing masks, etc, all of these do in fact help prevent transmission and slow the spread. I don't think restaurants or bars or many other non-essential things should be open, but unfortunately mammon needs it's sacrifices, and none of us are able to choose from good choices, just a number of bad and imperfect ones. Given that you admit this in your post: quote:Luckily it's only killing people at about a 1-2% CFR right now and there's no indication that will radically increase or change. BUT, look at what that 1-2% rate has already done--700k dead Americans and climbing. This is nothing to downplay or ignore. I want to point out that pretty much everyone in this thread agrees with you on the need for a better governmental response to covid pretty much anywhere but parts of Australia, NZ, and China. No one is "downplaying" deaths, and many of us have had close calls or lost one or multiple family members. It's a terrible thing. But you are consistently overstating the risk factors for people already taking precautions that can keep them safe and possibly distressing people who are in some bad places. We're all coming from different places here, and when you have a shared space with others you have a responsibility to either try to participate in a non-toxic fashion or you can choose to leave. People come here for good info and constantly blasting your worst fears about covid doesn't help anyone. If you can't handle that I will ask that you step away from the thread or your break won't be optional. It's not "armchair psychology," I'm just trying to do my best to appeal to folks here as fellow human beings with their own lives and problems, and dealing with an awful pandemic on top of that. A little bit of love and some doses of realism can go a long way, and if you choose to tell me to gently caress off, well, that's your right, but you are not guaranteed a platform to shout about doomsday scenarios.
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Sep 28, 2021 00:20
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HelloSailorSign posted:There's a point at which the validity of feelings is irrelevant when we're talking about people who have consistently demonstrated that not only do they not understand virology or history, they are reluctant to teaching and aggressively smug about their ignorance. I see where you're coming from, and I absolutely know this is going to sound incredibly naive coming from an 07 reg date, but I really wanted to let people have a little more space because we are all coming from different places and all have to deal with it in our own way. But the space can't be unmoderated and I'm just doing my best to treat everyone with respect and decency in the hopes that this can be a helpful place for people rather than a hurtful one. I will not be giving infinite chances and EHF and I are pretty much on the same page here so I don't feel uncomfortable pushing the button when need be. Petey posted:e: can't risk being off-topic *and* no pet tax Wonder if that pupper would play Sea of Thieves with me...
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Sep 28, 2021 00:30
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I remember school discussion. So it might be useful to bring up that major school districts were never, ever even serious about remote schooling this year. https://ktla.com/news/local-news/surge-in-demand-for-remote-learning-overwhelms-l-a-public-schools/ It wasn't real and nobody had any plan.
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Sep 28, 2021 01:18
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https://twitter.com/BarryHunt008/status/1442478024449011712
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Sep 28, 2021 01:35
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There's no shortage of American failures but the prison system is so loving heinous and this is yet another example to throw on the pile. Abolish prisons.
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Sep 28, 2021 01:46
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mod sassinator posted:People really need to think of this thing as a totally unemotional and determined killing maching, like a Terminator. Ironically, if the US's response to the Coronavirus had been something more akin to the bugs in Starship Troopers, complete with Trump cheering young kids as they stomped on whatever cockroach stand-in they could come up with to represent microscopic protein-coated RNA, things probably would've turned out a lot better here. The one time Republican's hyper-patriotic Red Dawn fantasies might've actually paid off but ofc they choose to side with the North Koreans. Watching people gathering together to burn their masks during a pandemic was surreal. It's darkly ironic that Conservatives always preached survivalism and preparedness, many even spending decades stocking up on extra resources, prepping for the next big global disaster, and when it finally hits they go out and basically do cartwheels in the radiation zones. Rather than pulling together and gearing up for a fight, prepping for some sacrifice and hardship like we usually do in a crisis, a lot of the country has just had this blase attitude about it. And that includes the people who thought that restaurants were magically safe to eat inside again just because the capacity restrictions had been lifted. Like, it still blows my mind that most schools were closed last year but even the ones that were open did more NPI than wer're doing now AND we're facing a more transmissible and deadlier strain. I don't know what the hell Biden was thinking with that. So yeah, watching how things have played out here, I'm not at all surprised that normal people are starting to burn out. I lost my cousin to the virus last summer and all I can say is get some nature, go for a walk in the woods, stay in touch with your people, set up zoom parties if you have to. It actually really does suck that the gyms are closed because it can't be overemphasized how much exercise benefits mental health. But you can still do a lot with a few dumbbells, that's what I've been doing, and it's working. Maintaining self-care is critical, just do what you gotta do.
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Sep 28, 2021 01:52
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mod sassinator posted:You can't bargain with it--i.e. you can't shake some magic totem of 'look we're outside!' or 'it's fine, we're 6 foot distance apart'. Yes you can.
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Sep 28, 2021 02:01
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freebooter posted:Speaking of "outside" I think you need to go there for a bit yeah cant believe this guy is shouting alarm over and over again about a virus that does a 9/11 a day every day. like calm down its not gonna kill you
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Sep 28, 2021 02:10
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StrangeThing posted:Yes you can. Do you, like, shake it's spike protein?
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Sep 28, 2021 02:10
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A big flaming stink posted:yeah cant believe this guy is shouting alarm over and over again about a virus that does a 9/11 a day every day. like calm down its not gonna kill you The fact the virus is real is exactly why there is plenty to talk about without fanciful fanfiction making up fake news to talk about
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Sep 28, 2021 02:13
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StrangeThing posted:Yes you can. the 6 feet thing is absolutely not something you should rely on for any sort of protection. covid doesnt have an aggro radius of exactly 6 feet. you are playing a game of numbers every time you engage in social activity, and if we end up having to "live with it", eventually you are going to lose Owlofcreamcheese posted:The fact the virus is real is exactly why there is plenty to talk about without fanciful fanfiction making up fake news to talk about it is extremely lmao that you of all people think you have any ground to stand on when it comes to posting quality in this thread
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Sep 28, 2021 02:13
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Like it looks like Pfizer is down to uh, a rounding error of efficacy against infection in 4 months. That's no bueno given the fact that it can leave you no brain-o symptoms or not
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Sep 28, 2021 02:17
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poll plane variant posted:Like it looks like Pfizer is down to uh, a rounding error of efficacy against infection in 4 months. That's no bueno given the fact that it can leave you no brain-o symptoms or not A rounding error of efficacy? Are you basing this on the prison out break tweet you linked? ...do you know what an attack rate is?
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Sep 28, 2021 02:22
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Fritz the Horse posted:A rounding error of efficacy? Are you basing this on the prison out break tweet you linked? Yeah it's the percentage of people exposed who got covid, if you compare 93% to 89% I'm not seeing much of a difference.
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Sep 28, 2021 02:24
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poll plane variant posted:Yeah it's the percentage of people exposed who got covid, if you compare 93% to 89% I'm not seeing much of a difference. What was the period of time they were exposed? edit: dude go skim the publication, it's linked in the tweet.
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Sep 28, 2021 02:27
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poll plane variant posted:Yeah it's the percentage of people exposed who got covid, if you compare 93% to 89% I'm not seeing much of a difference. i think using the victims of the carceral state as a rubric for anything is highly inadvisable, there are plenty of obvious circumstances that make prisoners uniquely vulnerable to covid
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Sep 28, 2021 02:28
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A big flaming stink posted:i think using the victims of the carceral state as a rubric for anything is highly inadvisable, there are plenty of obvious circumstances that make prisoners uniquely vulnerable to covid It removes the weird partisan confounding effect of pro-vax people being more likely to WFH, mask, and avoid risks though. It shows us what vax-only accomplishes with true zero NPI
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Sep 28, 2021 02:29
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quote:Among 233 incarcerated persons, 185 (79%) of whom were fully vaccinated, 172 (74%) received positive SARS-CoV-2 test results during July 12–August 14 (Supplementary Figure, https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/109901). Among a subset of 70 symptomatic persons providing swabs for serial testing, no significant difference was found in the median interval between reported symptom onset and last positive RT-PCR result in vaccinated versus unvaccinated persons (9 versus 11 days, respectively; p = 0.37) (Figure). Virus was cultured from one or more specimens from five of 12 (42%) unvaccinated and 14 of 37 (38%) fully vaccinated persons for whom viral culture was attempted. Genomic sequencing confirmed the AY.3 sublineage of the Delta variant in 58 specimens from 58 persons. some snips. The attack rate is over a one-month outbreak. The takeaway here should be "prisons are loving terrible and prison guards are assholes who refuse to get vaccinated" and not "vaccines don't work" edit: poll plane variant posted:It shows us what vax-only accomplishes with true zero NPI quote:Standard COVID-19 prevention protocols that were in place among incarcerated persons included mandatory masking in common areas, cohorting of housing units for daily activities, and head-to-toe sleeping arrangements. Among staff members, prevention protocols included mandatory masking and mandatory daily COVID-19 symptom screening and temperature checks (5).¶ Before the outbreak, incarcerated persons moved freely between units A and B and were together for meals, recreation, and work; they did not have contact with incarcerated persons housed in other units. After initial identification of COVID-19 cases, unit A was designated as a quarantine unit for persons with negative test results, and unit B was designated as a medical isolation unit for COVID-19 patients. Staff members assigned to units A and B rotated between these two units and to other units on the basis of daily staffing needs. that's lovely but it's not "true zero NPI" and I have no idea how you contain a Delta outbreak in a prison. edit2: LMAO look at that last sentence of the last quote. The prison staff is two-thirds unvaccinated, they created a quarantine wing and then Staff members assigned to units A and B rotated between these two units and to other units on the basis of daily staffing needs. loving why bother with a quarantine lol Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 02:37 on Sep 28, 2021 |
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Sep 28, 2021 02:32
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Fritz the Horse posted:some snips. The attack rate is over a one-month outbreak. were the npi measures independently verified or are they self-reported by the prisons? because if its the latter i feel like you have to include a huge loving grain of salt about it
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Sep 28, 2021 02:38
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Welp, my sister, my BIL and my niece and nephew all have Covid. Southern Ohio, so unvaxxed of course. Thankfully it sounds mild; just some bad coughs and loss of taste. They think he picked it up in Louisiana while working emergency repairs on power lines after Ida.
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Sep 28, 2021 02:39
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A big flaming stink posted:were the npi measures independently verified or are they self-reported by the prisons? because if its the latter i feel like you have to include a huge loving grain of salt about it Also prisons are basically unventilated so I kind of write off most NPI as theater under those circumstances
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Sep 28, 2021 02:49
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HelloSailorSign posted:"Artificial" protection has me This was a comforting argument to many in May of 2020, but the fact is that the solution space to this problem is vast and there’s no fundamental reason that SARS‐CoV‐2 can’t explore it for what is on human timescales a long time.  (source) SARS‐CoV‐2 has its spike and many variants thereof. SARS‐CoV has a distinct spike, and look at that, almost ninety percent similarity. Those virologists chose the name for a reason. They are both members of genus Betacoronavirus, subgenus sarbecovirus Also in the genus Betacoronavirus, but now subgenus embecovirus, we have OC43 and HKU1, viruses that sometimes cause “the common cold”. Their spikes aren’t all that similar to SARS‐CoV‐2’s, but they target different receptors than it, and they remain more similar than the spikes of Alphacoronaviruses 229E and NL63 (also common cold culprits). So far this makes sense. The genetic relationship works as we would expect. Now here’s the interesting thing. NL63’s receptor? It’s angiotensin‐converting enzyme 2, same as SARS‐CoV and SARS‐CoV‐2. It has less chemical similarity to their spikes, yet it opens the same lock. I’m not suggesting that SARS‐CoV‐2 is going to carbon‐copy NL63’s spike and end up with an antibody‐evading monster. I am suggesting that it is foolhardy to believe that laws of chemistry put hard limits on how much the spike can differ from its present construction and still gently caress us up.
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Sep 28, 2021 02:55
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Fritz the Horse posted:ffs look at all the NPI and quarantine measures they took. you didn't bother to even glance at the publication, you are just completely making poo poo up Fritz, your takeaway is more “doomer” than PPV’s. Eighty‐nine percent attack rate is bad and we hope to be able to say “well you only get numbers like that in orgies or penitentiaries, with non‐existent non‐pharmaceutical intervention”. It’s worse if the reality is that significant NPI were implemented yet did nothing to stop the spread of the virus to vaccinated persons. My takeaway? Leaky vaccine effect is significant; protection is not all‐or‐nothing. It is a good for vaccinated persons to minimize exposure. The May thirteenth guidance was terribly wrong.
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Sep 28, 2021 03:05
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Platystemon posted:Fritz, your takeaway is more “doomer” than PPV’s. We do have some data from orgies, in fact, from the Provincetown outbreak, and it sounds like it wasn't anywhere near this bad, but then length of exposure also matters a lot! (That also probably had wayy higher vaccination rate, too).
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Sep 28, 2021 03:10
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Platystemon posted:My takeaway? Leaky vaccine effect is significant; protection is not all‐or‐nothing. It is a good for vaccinated persons to minimize exposure. The May thirteenth guidance was terribly wrong. I think this is reasonable, but the claim that this proves that vaccines have a "rounding error of efficiency after a few months" isn't well supported. Effectiveness of a vaccine always, always depends on the circumstances of the population being tested, and "prisoner during an active outbreak" isn't even close to most people's typical lifestyle. There's plenty of data that show a much greater effectiveness (hell, Israel's most pessimistic data shows far more effectiveness than this), and relying on this one example is absolutely cherry-picking the most pessimistic possible take. This sort of study is absolutely instructive to how prisons are doing an absolute poo poo job of protecting their inmates from COVID, but it's basically not useful to most people's personal risk assessments.
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Sep 28, 2021 03:12
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Many people had the virus detectable in their body, but only one of the 129 vaccinated cases actually ended up in the hospital and none died. It’s really hard to call that a rounding error
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Sep 28, 2021 03:20
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Many people had the virus detectable in their body, but only one of the 129 vaccinated cases actually ended up in the hospital and none died. It’s really hard to call that a rounding error Versus 3 hospitalized and one dead for the unvaccinated group. There’s not some huge disparity between the groups
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Sep 28, 2021 03:30
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lil poopendorfer posted:Versus 3 hospitalized and one dead for the unvaccinated group. There’s not some huge disparity between the groups If you pretend there was the same number of each group instead of noticing there was nearly 4 times as many vaccinated people and 3 of the 4 hospitalizations and 100% of the deaths came out of a group of 39 unvaccinated people. Owlofcreamcheese fucked around with this message at 03:58 on Sep 28, 2021 |
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Sep 28, 2021 03:43
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this study of a nonrepresentative population with n=233 renders all prior knowledge moot
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Sep 28, 2021 04:28
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We are only allowed to use weak science to imperil kids. It is never O.K. to take the cautious approach when there is uncertainty.
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Sep 28, 2021 04:57
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Platystemon posted:We are only allowed to use weak science to imperil kids. We should definitely err on the side of open 'er up, infect all the kids, everyone's getting it, it's endemic, *cough cough* must be allergies
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Sep 28, 2021 05:00
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Platystemon posted:This was a comforting argument to many in May of 2020, but the fact is that the solution space to this problem is vast and there’s no fundamental reason that SARS‐CoV‐2 can’t explore it for what is on human timescales a long time. IANAV, but I recall reading or hearing earlier in the pandemic that even just several percentage points of genetic difference in a coronavirus is enormous and that it's much more likely you'd just see an entirely new novel virus emerge than for SARS-CoV-2 to mutate to the point that it behaves like a novel virus.
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Sep 28, 2021 05:00
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PostNouveau posted:We should definitely err on the side of open 'er up, infect all the kids, everyone's getting it, it's endemic, *cough cough* must be allergies One study being used in a way you don’t like doesn’t mean you get to just throw out the validity of all studies and just believe whatever you like. Vaccines aren’t fake because you saw a Twitter once that said six feet is as safe as three feet.
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Sep 28, 2021 05:05
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:One study being used in a way you don’t like doesn’t mean you get to just throw out the validity of all studies and just believe whatever you like. Vaccines aren’t fake because you saw a Twitter once that said six feet is as safe as three feet. What do you think I'm trying to say here? We should err on the side of extreme caution (ala China) because we know so little. There's an insane argument that keeps cropping up we should continue doing what we're doing (even though everyone here knows it won't work) because we don't have enough evidence to pick another path with certainty. It's gonna take years for us to fully understand what works best against covid, and meanwhile, covid spreads and kills very fast. PostNouveau fucked around with this message at 05:12 on Sep 28, 2021 |
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Sep 28, 2021 05:09
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Stunning indictment of the CDC to put its guidance on a level with Twitter.  Anyway, this prison study has precedent in showing that in circumstances of close and/or prolonged contact, attack rates on the vaccinated can be quite high. The Provincetown study was already mentioned. Another notable one was published in MMWR a couple months ago and concerns gold miners in French Guinana versus Gamma (i.e. the other Indian variant)—again very small, n = 44. That’s not the same thing as having “a rounding error of efficacy against infection”, but we would prefer all‐or‐nothing vaccines with robust protection in all sorts of contact, and it doesn’t appear that that’s what we’ve got.
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Sep 28, 2021 05:15
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Smeef posted:IANAV, but I recall reading or hearing earlier in the pandemic that even just several percentage points of genetic difference in a coronavirus is enormous and that it's much more likely you'd just see an entirely new novel virus emerge than for SARS-CoV-2 to mutate to the point that it behaves like a novel virus. True, but that’s a very different point than “there’s only so much the key (spike protein) can change before it fails to open the lock (bind with the receptor)”. Whatever constraints exist on its evolution, they lie elsewhere.
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Sep 28, 2021 05:17
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Qatar estimated VE approching zero ~5 months out but it's an outlier. Most studies have been ~40-60% at 4-5 months v Delta (Israel, Southern California, UK, Minnesota). It's entirely reasonable for a average 40-60% VE to end up with a 90% attack rate in a prison under constant exposure, though (or outside of a prison under similar aggregate exposure over a longer period of time). E: Even a 90% effective vaccine will ultimately have very high cumulative breakthrough rates if measures are insufficient to control outbreaks. Stickman fucked around with this message at 05:27 on Sep 28, 2021 |
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Sep 28, 2021 05:20
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Nobody is saying vaccines are worthless, they're saying they're grossly insufficient to stop infection and spread, especially after a few months without a booster. The prison example is perfect for showing the point that NPIs are necessary to control the spread of COVID and that vaccines alone are not the answer. It's the extreme end of the scale, we now know what happens when you hotbox a bunch of people with COVID, and it shows that vaccines in that scenario do very little to prevent infection. So presumably, and here we have to do something without heaps of peer reviewed data to guide the way, but presumably the further along the scale we get away from the COVID hotbox the better our results. I'm going to assume that the less you are exposed to COVID the more effective vaccines are in further reducing your chances of getting COVID because the protection they provide is less likely to be overcome by viral load. And I think that's a safe assumption, not because it's definitely right, but because if it's wrong then at least anything we did to act on that assumption wouldn't have made the pandemic worse.
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Sep 28, 2021 05:21
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