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(Thread IKs: fart simpson)
 
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gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
Marching on Hanoi wasn't the objective. They wanted to gently caress up some VPA formations, then peace out, which is what they did.

At best one could argue that it took the PLA longer, and with more casualties, than they had originally planned for, but the long-run objective of getting Vietnam to back-off from Cambodia was still accomplished in the end.

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stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020
China's strategic goal was to remind Vietnam Soviet wasn't going to meaningfully help Cietnam when poo poo hits the fans, and also remind the rest of the Indochina peninsula the geopolitic reality.

Pretty similar to the strategic goal of the recent Sino-India conflict IMO.

Grapplejack
Nov 27, 2007

gradenko_2000 posted:

Marching on Hanoi wasn't the objective. They wanted to gently caress up some VPA formations, then peace out, which is what they did.

At best one could argue that it took the PLA longer, and with more casualties, than they had originally planned for, but the long-run objective of getting Vietnam to back-off from Cambodia was still accomplished in the end.

I mean, it didn't though, Vietnam stayed in Cambodia until the late 80s.

Judakel
Jul 29, 2004
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
gentlemen please i think we can all agree that the only modern great armies are viet cong and the taliban and everyone else is bitchmade

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

Grapplejack posted:

I mean, it didn't though, Vietnam stayed in Cambodia until the late 80s.

... which is when the conflict ended, with Vietnam conceding to all of China's demands with regards Cambodia

Maximo Roboto
Feb 4, 2012

just say it’s a War of 1812 situation and call it a day

Some Guy TT
Aug 30, 2011
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!
https://mobile.twitter.com/SahilBloom/status/1444702393892024321

Rutibex
Sep 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

Judakel posted:

gentlemen please i think we can all agree that the only modern great armies are viet cong and the taliban and everyone else is bitchmade

:hmmyes:

Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin

gradenko_2000 posted:

Marching on Hanoi wasn't the objective. They wanted to gently caress up some VPA formations, then peace out, which is what they did.

At best one could argue that it took the PLA longer, and with more casualties, than they had originally planned for, but the long-run objective of getting Vietnam to back-off from Cambodia was still accomplished in the end.

A lot of people seem to think Vietnam is some tiny insignificant backwater country. In 1979 Vietnam has about the same population as France and almost certainly one of, if not the largest, most well equipped and experienced army outside of the 5 security council permanent members, it was a far more formidable military power than Iraq was in 1990 and could easily have outright conquered at least Laos and Cambodia and probably Thailand as well.

At the end of the offensive phase of the war the PLA had a clear path to Hanoi and could have marched on it if they wanted. As it was the destruction of large swathes of industrial infrastructure in the north alone pretty much crippled Vietnam's ability to wage offensive wars for most of the next decade.

Buck Wildman
Mar 30, 2010

I am Metango, Galactic Governor



T H E C O A L T H O

Some Guy TT
Aug 30, 2011
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

Throatwarbler posted:

A lot of people seem to think Vietnam is some tiny insignificant backwater country. In 1979 Vietnam has about the same population as France and almost certainly one of, if not the largest, most well equipped and experienced army outside of the 5 security council permanent members, it was a far more formidable military power than Iraq was in 1990 and could easily have outright conquered at least Laos and Cambodia and probably Thailand as well.

my favorite worldbuilding in the watchmen tv show is that vietnam is just a state now a full fifth of the countries population and congressional representatives just live on the opposite side of the planet no we dont need to get into details on how this is supposed to work

the best part is it was in the comic too but as a complete throwaway line no one even remembered lol

indigi
Jul 20, 2004

how can we not talk about family
when family's all that we got?

gradenko_2000 posted:

... which is when the conflict ended, with Vietnam conceding to all of China's demands with regards Cambodia

it took them ten years and it ended well after Pol Pot had been ousted. China’s aim was to keep Pol Pot/PDK in power and they ultimately failed

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

indigi posted:

it took them ten years and it ended well after Pol Pot had been ousted. China’s aim was to keep Pol Pot/PDK in power and they ultimately failed

The Khmer Rouge was allowed to be part of the coalition government of Cambodia as part of China's demands

indigi
Jul 20, 2004

how can we not talk about family
when family's all that we got?
yes peace treaties often involve compromises from the losing parties

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

indigi posted:

yes peace treaties often involve compromises from the losing parties

It's not a compromise because Vietnam didn't get to water down China's demand with a counteroffer that they met in the middle with

China got to dictate what Cambodia would look like after Vietnam left

indigi
Jul 20, 2004

how can we not talk about family
when family's all that we got?
China’s initial offer that they went to war over was “leave pol pot alone” idk how the end result isn’t a compromise

Cao Ni Ma
May 25, 2010



As with many Deng related issue, the more time passes the more he's proven right. That includes the war with vietnam.

Deng didnt care for Pol Pot, and Pol pot didnt care for him. China didn't want an uppity Vietnam being their personal Cuba, an offensive buffer from the soviets. The entire incursions were to test the limits of the soviets defense pacts with Vietnam, how hard they could hit before they would clamp down. The clamping down never came, the soviets started to lose ground thanks in part to plucky Afghanistan and without the cover they provided they had cease to all aggressions. Thanks to chinas growing economic power they had to genuflect to them to restore their battered economy and now Vietnam is pretty much the embodiment of China's desire policies for the rest of the region. Complete dealignment/neutrality, they know that if they can achieve this the US cant isolate them and if you cant isolate them then victory is pretty much assured with a bit of time.

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020
Considering Cambodia is most friendly country toward China out of the mainland SEA four countries, and will vote whatever China want in ASEAN summits, I would say China's military interference in SEA worked out pretty well.

Centrist Committee
Aug 6, 2019
I would have simply unified the continent into a single socialist superpower and wiped Westphalian capitalism off the map

Ignorant Hick
Mar 26, 2010

Cao Ni Ma posted:

As with many Deng related issue, the more time passes the more he's proven right. That includes the war with vietnam.

Deng didnt care for Pol Pot, and Pol pot didnt care for him. China didn't want an uppity Vietnam being their personal Cuba, an offensive buffer from the soviets. The entire incursions were to test the limits of the soviets defense pacts with Vietnam, how hard they could hit before they would clamp down. The clamping down never came, the soviets started to lose ground thanks in part to plucky Afghanistan and without the cover they provided they had cease to all aggressions. Thanks to chinas growing economic power they had to genuflect to them to restore their battered economy and now Vietnam is pretty much the embodiment of China's desire policies for the rest of the region. Complete dealignment/neutrality, they know that if they can achieve this the US cant isolate them and if you cant isolate them then victory is pretty much assured with a bit of time.

I'll say I'm still cautiously optimistic that the economic poo poo was the right call in the end but buddying up with the great satan to help gently caress over the USSR was probably Not Good

Grapplejack
Nov 27, 2007

Some Guy TT posted:

my favorite worldbuilding in the watchmen tv show is that vietnam is just a state now a full fifth of the countries population and congressional representatives just live on the opposite side of the planet no we dont need to get into details on how this is supposed to work

the best part is it was in the comic too but as a complete throwaway line no one even remembered lol

I mean that's almost what happened to the Philippines but America was too racist for it so they split them off into their own country instead

Ignorant Hick posted:

I'll say I'm still cautiously optimistic that the economic poo poo was the right call in the end but buddying up with the great satan to help gently caress over the USSR was probably Not Good

A war of aggression in order to support an unpopular murderous dictator that also managed to spite the Soviets? I can't imagine anyone doing that

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

indigi posted:

China’s initial offer that they went to war over was “leave pol pot alone” idk how the end result isn’t a compromise

Pol Pot was already ousted by the time China invaded Vietnam. China wanted Vietnam to leave Cambodia entirely, from the very first peace talks in October 1979, and refused to entertain any negotiation that did not begin with full concession on that point. They got everything they wanted.



stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020
Deng thought Gorbachev doing political reform before economic reform was "idiotic". How was Deng going to stop Soviet slowly entering collapse, he can't.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
A big part of it was that the Soviets were attempting their own "containment strategy" versus China with Mongolia as a satellite, an alliance with the Vietnamese, a friendship with India and eventually a friendly government in Afganistan (that cost the Soviets dearly). The issue was obviously this strategy was eating resources the Soviets didn't have and beyond the war in Afganistan, the Soviets were often having to still devote resources to its border with China and efforts to keep their alliance up.

In all honesty, by the 1970s, the Soviets should have figured out that the game was about resources and trade, and that the Union simply even with higher energy prices didn't have the resources to compete with the US breathing down their necks. Also, a lot of the defense spending during the 1980s (including the Buran and a bunch of other high profile projects) were indefensible. They had put themselves in a pretty vulnerable position by the mid-1980s. It seemed logical at the time...except for the budgetary side of things.

I think the narratives surrounding the Sino-Vietnamese War are played up a bit due to the fact 1. while the Chinese army underperformed, they clearly hadn't been defeated in the frame of the conflict (it did put Vietnam on the backfoot in Cambodia) and 2. it was really no way comparable as something like the Indochine war or the American invasion... or even the Vietnamese occupation of Cambodia.
----

As for Gorbachev's union treaty, it would have killed in the Soviet Union (including in name) and only pretty much left the army. It would have left open the door for economic experimentation and in all honestly would have fallen apart in a few years since there wouldn't have been much holding the structure together (in a way comparable to Yugoslavia) when put under pressure since republics could just leave it when they felt like it.

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020
The US/global capitalist has the ability to manipulate the commodity price/oil price and oil price dropped more than half in the last 5 years before the Soviet collapse. Kind of weird that the Russians policy makers never developed supplemental theory dealing with common price "warfare".

XMNN
Apr 26, 2008
I am incredibly stupid
the Chinese have invaded Taiwanese airspace again

https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1444744954786557953?s=19

disgraceful

https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1444998286197231617?s=19

Rutibex
Sep 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy
how can you invade your own airspace

Palladium
May 8, 2012

Very Good
✔️✔️✔️✔️
Gotta the love the comments in the TERF media tweet never mention the very obscure fact that the TW ADIZ is so large it extends all the way into Anhui province.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

stephenthinkpad posted:

The US/global capitalist has the ability to manipulate the commodity price/oil price and oil price dropped more than half in the last 5 years before the Soviet collapse. Kind of weird that the Russians policy makers never developed supplemental theory dealing with common price "warfare".

They did later, notice the alliance between the Russians and OPEC more recently. It is just during the 1980s, they clearly didn't really have a picture of what is going on and also honestly I wonder about Gorbachev, who honestly seemed to take a very passive role in terms of trade.

...

Also, yeah those flights look like they are closer to the mainland than Taiwan itself.

lobster shirt
Jun 14, 2021

in other news, some protesting indian farmers were killed in uttar pradesh under (to me) unclear circumstances, it looks like a government convoy might have just straight up rammed a crowd of farmers though: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/04/india-at-least-eight-dead-after-farm-protesters-attack-ministers-convoy https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/3/eight-including-four-farmers-killed-in-uttar-pradesh. some BJP (ruling party at the federal level and also in uttar pradesh where this happened) members were also killed. i suspect that one of the ramming vehicles was swarmed and its occupants killed after the ramming, but who knows!

police have also arrested a general secretary from the opposition indian national congress party, specifically the secretary general for uttar pradesh, who also happens to be the sister of the current leader of the congress party and the daughter of the party's president. she was on her way to investigate the violence when police got her. https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/priyanka-gandhi-detained-at-sitapur-en-route-to-lakhimpur-kheri/ar-AAP7apx. i am sure everyone involved in this is having a good time.

Tankbuster
Oct 1, 2021
Love how the media response to this has been running a story about an actor's kid smoking some pot. 60 whole grams of it.

----------------
This thread brought to you by a tremendous dickhead!

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020

lobster shirt posted:

in other news, some protesting indian farmers were killed in uttar pradesh under (to me) unclear circumstances, it looks like a government convoy might have just straight up rammed a crowd of farmers though: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/04/india-at-least-eight-dead-after-farm-protesters-attack-ministers-convoy https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/3/eight-including-four-farmers-killed-in-uttar-pradesh. some BJP (ruling party at the federal level and also in uttar pradesh where this happened) members were also killed. i suspect that one of the ramming vehicles was swarmed and its occupants killed after the ramming, but who knows!

police have also arrested a general secretary from the opposition indian national congress party, specifically the secretary general for uttar pradesh, who also happens to be the sister of the current leader of the congress party and the daughter of the party's president. she was on her way to investigate the violence when police got her. https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/priyanka-gandhi-detained-at-sitapur-en-route-to-lakhimpur-kheri/ar-AAP7apx. i am sure everyone involved in this is having a good time.

Not really related to this news. Road rage is serious business in India. Since India has severe lacking of toilet facilities, kids like to poo poo on the side of the road. If a truck driver run over a kid in a remote village, he usually doesn't stop and drive straight to the nearby police station. Because if you stop, you have a high chance to be killed by the villagers on the spot and the truck torched. A distinct detail I remember from Steve Coll's Grand Trunk Road.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

XMNN posted:

the Chinese have invaded Taiwanese airspace again

https://twitter.com/justcurious1313/status/1445019592015810564

ADIZ nuts

Amp
Sep 10, 2010

:11tea::bubblewoop::agesilaus::megaman::yoshi::squawk::supaburn::iit::spooky::axe::honked::shroom::smugdog::sg::pkmnwhy::parrot::screamy::tubular::corsair::sanix::yeeclaw::hayter::flip::redflag:
Confused as to which Soviets are doing air shows, recently.

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

Don't these videos usually end up being a remote controled model plane?

They do look cool though, so I can see why they get shared.

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020
Is that plane full size or model size? I legit can't tell.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

ShallNoiseUpon posted:

Confused as to which Soviets are doing air shows, recently.

https://twitter.com/YEASTY_COMMIE/status/1291298519568048128

Cao Ni Ma
May 25, 2010



I had to explain to my coworkers what the ADIZ and told them not to worry about it unless china comes within like 50 miles of taiwan or whatever.

Grapplejack
Nov 27, 2007


2SSR

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Buck Wildman
Mar 30, 2010

I am Metango, Galactic Governor



USSR 2: The Curse of Trotsky's Gold

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