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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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Is vaccine uptake in 12-15 still abysmally low in the US?
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Oct 20, 2021 01:50
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| # ? May 25, 2024 11:51 |
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I'm incredibly wary of the term "herd immunity" these days even knowing that you guys mean with vaccine, because of how many people have butchered that phrase in the past 2 years
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Oct 20, 2021 01:58
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brugroffil posted:Is vaccine uptake in 12-15 still abysmally low in the US? 46.1% fully vaccinated.
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Oct 20, 2021 01:59
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fosborb posted:I wish there was accountability for predictions like this. other OHSU predictions Yeah I was gonna say, how many times in the past year did we hear "oh infections are down from the peak, we're approaching herd immunity" only for them to surge back up. Even if we really do hit the threshold this time (doubtful given the track record of assumptions about undetected cases), immune people die every day and non-immune people are born every day. If you're not vaccinating new people at herd immunity rates you drop below the threshold and outbreaks can spread again. That's just basic math, that's why diseases always came in waves and were never just "over" one day before mass vaccination. Herd immunity has never been achieved for any disease in human history with natural infection or even a combination of vaccines and natural infection.
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Oct 20, 2021 02:08
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and just to be clear how past the peak Oregon deaths are
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Oct 20, 2021 02:12
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VitalSigns posted:
Smallpox and Rinderpest
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Oct 20, 2021 03:05
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I thought I read in this thread that Moderna boosters and under-12 vaccines were gonna be discussed this month. Where are we at on those? I had my second Moderna shot in April, so I'd like to get a booster soon. I also want to get my almost-5-year-old vaccinated ASAP. I have a feeling I'm going to have to see family this Thanksgiving >_<
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Oct 20, 2021 03:20
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Illuminti posted:Smallpox and Rinderpest Smallpox was entirely a vaccination campaign, "natural immunity" had nothing to do with it. The UN had teams that would go in anywhere a smallpox case was detected and vaccinate whole villages for miles around to snuff it out. They weren't like "well vaccinate some people then once enough other people get infected it will go away on its own" because that wouldn't have worked. Rinderpest isn't a human disease, but I'm pretty sure the solution was mass vaccination and culling. I mean come on, livestock don't need to consent to vaccines in the first place, they just vaccinated them all, there weren't resistors. VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 03:23 on Oct 20, 2021 |
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Oct 20, 2021 03:21
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Unless you're talking about globally, we have herd immunity for all kinds of diseases. There's a reason why if you live in the first world you never think about or worry about catching measles or polio or whatever.
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Oct 20, 2021 04:09
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freebooter posted:Unless you're talking about globally, we have herd immunity for all kinds of diseases. There's a reason why if you live in the first world you never think about or worry about catching measles or polio or whatever. Again those thresholds were achieved by vaccination, and maintained by vaccinating enough new kids every year. Not by vaccinating halfway up to the threshold and then going "ehhhh once everyone else gets measles mission accomplished" There have been multiple measles outbreaks specifically in areas that stopped vaccinating enough kids because their parents were morons. "Natural immunity" has never cleared a disease, you vaccinate enough people and you keep vaccinating, or the disease comes back every year. E: like this is a middle school algebra problem. If the herd immunity threshold is 90%, and you vaccinate 45% of the population and the other 45% get sick and get antibodies you hit herd immunity. Is the disease over now? Well what happens the next day? Old people with immunity die of old age, new babies are born without immunity, kids without immunity have birthdays and age up into vaccination age. How many of those kids do you have to vaccinate to maintain herd immunity? 90%. What happens if you only vaccinate 45% of them? You're not at herd immunity anymore. VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 04:27 on Oct 20, 2021 |
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Oct 20, 2021 04:22
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Just got my 3rd pfizer shot tonight, seems like in Washington as long as your second dose was at least six months ago they're happy to give you a third one, no 65+ or vulnerability requirements. Not sure if that's the case anywhere you go or if only some pharmacies are allowing it, but I figured I'd share my experience.
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Oct 20, 2021 04:23
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I got a 3rd shot today too. Good news goons, you just have to be obese.
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Oct 20, 2021 04:31
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You can also go online at CVS and say that you have a pre-existing condition (it doesnt ask you to specify). When I showed up to my appointment all that was asked was if I filled out the online questionnaire, then gave me the shot. I am fairly certain the nurse knew, but she seemed happy enough to administer it.
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Oct 20, 2021 04:40
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VitalSigns posted:Again those thresholds were achieved by vaccination, and maintained by vaccinating enough new kids every year. Not by vaccinating halfway up to the threshold and then going "ehhhh once everyone else gets measles mission accomplished" We're going to be vaccinating young kids soon enough.
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Oct 20, 2021 05:17
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fosborb posted:I wish there was accountability for predictions like this. other OHSU predictions Accountability is un-American. That said, I'm not personally invested in OHSU's modeling; what would you consider a more plausible prediction?
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Oct 20, 2021 05:34
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There's hope for other countries but at this time I don't see America ever getting out from under COVID. Just locked into a couple hundred thousand+ deaths a year plus hospitalizations and long-term complications from now on.
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Oct 20, 2021 07:38
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Phigs posted:There's hope for other countries but at this time I don't see America ever getting out from under COVID. Just locked into a couple hundred thousand+ deaths a year plus hospitalizations and long-term complications from now on. Every year the brain-damage effects of Covid will compound in the US until the whole country is like that tribe in the book Hyperion. e- Serious post — if the US doesn't get out of it, then the rest of the world probably doesn't either, because with few exceptions they're not going to cut off the US.
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Oct 20, 2021 08:19
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VitalSigns posted:Herd immunity has never been achieved for any disease in human history with natural infection or even a combination of vaccines and natural infection. And even if you mean full eradication, we have done that with vaccines before.
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Oct 20, 2021 08:28
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Inferior Third Season posted:"Herd immunity" does not mean the complete eradication of a disease. It means that if a disease is introduced into the environment, it will tend to not spread widely. We've achieved this for many, many diseases. Before modern medicine, this was how all diseases were "managed". Humanity would have never been able to build cities if every deadly disease since caveman times was simultaneously running rampant through the population all the time. :shh: its to hard for him to understand things that arent explained in the first paragraph of wikipedia. Herd immunity exists, and we have experienced it with and without vaccines. Namely its been seen in the fact that we have controlled many pathogens to some extant even before modern times. However discounting it all as being vaccine driven ignores several aspects that have gone into this. Alongside this Vaccines are largely modern technology, with only smallpox being known as the most common early vaccine (hell vaccines come from the drat viral name) and actively the use of an attenuated virus was used in Arabic cultures probably back the the 1700s in order to immunize people, with it taking an actual massive fight for the European powers to consider that the arab savages (as they termed them) actually were correct and that the method of draining blood and pus from a patient was dumb. Chicken pox largely was the same way, most of us remember growing up and getting it, and it was common knowledge for who knows how long that having your kids get chicken pox early was beneficial in order to prevent deadly infections in the teens or adult ages. Measles largely was herd immunity until the vaccine, because it spread like goddamn wild fire and still does, more so then covid does because its an actual legit airborne virus that can and will spread to anyone that doesn't have some level of protection. Herd immunity was a thing, and we normally associate it with viruses for a specific reason, vaccines made it so that it was much much easier, and more likely that people could safely and effectively be protected increasing the ability to protect an entire population instead of pockets of it around areas that had an outbreak prior. Again though, none of that matters to someone that is screaming doomerism from twitter to be an rear end in a top hat, and doesn't understand basic epidemiology because it cant be cut down to the information from a cracker jack prize toy
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Oct 20, 2021 09:13
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UCS Hellmaker posted:
Close — vaccine comes from the Latin word for cow because the first vaccine (used against smallpox) used the cowpox virus. Vaca is the word for cow in a lot of Romance languages.
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Oct 20, 2021 09:22
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Alongside this Vaccines are largely modern technology, with only smallpox being known as the most common early vaccine (hell vaccines come from the drat viral name)
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Smeef posted:Close — vaccine comes from the Latin word for cow because the first vaccine (used against smallpox) used the cowpox virus. Vaca is the word for cow in a lot of Romance languages. My bad, I just finished reading about that in one of my virology books again and goofed. Varrila was what I was thinking of and the cowpox verson that was identified as the major reason milkmaids were immune (and one of the other types of smallpox vaccines) was vaccinea the sub species that infected cows and only caused an extreme limited infection in humans. Smallpox like polio is weird, there is no actual zoological reservoir like other viruses, it only infects humans and can't effectively cause any reaction in other species. It served as the main way we could eradicate it because once the last person was cured, that was it.
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Oct 20, 2021 09:33
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Inferior Third Season posted:"Herd immunity" does not mean the complete eradication of a disease. It means that if a disease is introduced into the environment, it will tend to not spread widely. We've achieved this for many, many diseases. Before modern medicine, this was how all diseases were "managed". So far no one has been able to do it and has just resorted to scoffing when they couldn't think of one that wasn't achieved with vaccination. I don't see a disease this infectious just going away unless we actually vaccinate 90% of the population, that's not doomerism, that's just fact (but I'm happy to be convinced otherwise).
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Oct 20, 2021 11:48
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freebooter posted:We're going to be vaccinating young kids soon enough. That's great. I was talking specifically about the latest claim that Oregon is about to reach herd immunity (for real this time! Ignore all the previous faulty predictions!) I think that claim, specifically, is bullshit. I'm sure plenty of countries will reach herd immunity though because they aren't filled with antivax morons. I just think the specific goalpost-moving everyone is doing to convince ourselves we'll reach it without vaccination is nonsense. Just like every prediction over the past year that it's "over" in Sweden or Brazil or Florida or wherever because we reached "herd immunity" turned out to be wrong.
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Oct 20, 2021 12:01
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random question: is it possible for someone to find out if they had covid before getting vaccinated? like, does having the actual infection produce antibodies that can be distinguished from vaccine-produced antibodies? i’m simply curious if i happened to have it. would one of my tests pre-vaccine have detected them?
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Oct 20, 2021 12:34
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VitalSigns posted:Name one disease that went away because of "herd immunity" without vaccination. How do you think disease worked before 1900? Just every disease grew exponentially in all places forever?
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Oct 20, 2021 12:51
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VitalSigns posted:Name one disease that went away because of "herd immunity" without vaccination. Off the top of my head, bubonic plague, but I'm not sure why you're arguing this strawman about "without vaccination" Owlofcreamcheese posted:How do you think disease worked before 1900? Just every disease grew exponentially in all places forever? None of this is real, we all died in the Antonine Plague and are cursed to post forever in hell
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Oct 20, 2021 12:59
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VitalSigns posted:Name one disease that went away because of "herd immunity" without vaccination. Smallpox literally was in the middle east in many communities because of the intentional spread of mild forms of it, but that apparently doesn't fit with your mindset of having to be right and scream about how everyone's wrong. Alongside that Chicken pox again had no vaccine until the 1990s, and in many areas was fairly well contained and never truly spread because people would routinely be exposed even in earlier centuries to help prevent the deadly infections as people got older. Chickenpox is like measles and is an airborne pathogen, and spreads faster and more aggressively then covid, yet you never heard of entire regions suddenly coming down with it because of intentional spread by parents. You literally do not understand a word of what you are trying to spout, herd immunity is much more then just an entire population of a country, or even state. Going back centuries you did not have vaccines, but instead an entire city or town would be immunized because of an infection or intentional infections, allowing those areas to be considered immune. Largely what your screeching is wrong, and is based on new age ideas that largely are due to the fact that we have GLOBAL TRAVEL, which makes it so that one person being sick can suddenly infect an area where no one has exposure, much like the Washington measles outbreaks where antivax morons ended up getting it due to an infection from someone not vaccinated and from an area it was present. It however did not end up spreading throughout the state, but instead stayed inside that community, because the surrounding areas were immunized. I don't know why I am bothering though, you don't understand or want to understand epidemiology, or understand how it worked in past circumstances. You want to scream that we are all wrong and that you are right the world is ending. Take your cracker jack bullshit back to people that want to read it. Edit: don't try to start spouting poo poo related to past plagues like typhoid or cholera, those were bacterial and the actual mechanisms of infection, spread, and evolution of bacteria are drastically different compared to viral pathogens. Even the bubonic plague wasn't a herd immunity, it instead slowly became less deadly because it actively and rapidly killed people off, along with other circumstances that are fairly specific to the hell of the dark ages. UCS Hellmaker fucked around with this message at 13:21 on Oct 20, 2021 |
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Oct 20, 2021 13:18
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Will Oregon reach herd immunity soon, though?
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Oct 20, 2021 13:25
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I think that fundamentally what people want from herd immunity is really variable. To epidemiologists, herd immunity is simply a natural function of disease resistance eventually driving the r to <1.0, and it's no real guarantee that any vulnerable populations will be protected. In the media it's a finish line where anti-vaxxers and immunodeficient people can go out as normal without assuming a level of risk. The former is quite viable and indeed is unavoidable, while the latter is unprecedented and very unlikely.
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Oct 20, 2021 13:26
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:How do you think disease worked before 1900? Just every disease grew exponentially in all places forever? No. There are many factors that affect the course of epidemic (which is why NPIs are a thing). Herd immunity has a specific meaning, it is not a catch-all term for "things got better". Since you handwaved "every disease" I'll help you out with a counterexample: cholera. It didn't go away because everyone got cholera and got natural immunity. It went away thanks to NPIs (specifically someone finally figured out you shouldn't poo poo in your own drinking water supply) freebooter posted:Off the top of my head, bubonic plague, I beg of you guys to learn the definition of terms like "herd immunity", it's been terribly misused and abused in the media so I get it. quote:but I'm not sure why you're arguing this strawman about "without vaccination" I obviously think you can get to herd immunity for covid, through vaccination. VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 13:45 on Oct 20, 2021 |
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Oct 20, 2021 13:36
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Cholera is a bacterial disease you can't really compare it to viruses like smallpox and measles.
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Oct 20, 2021 13:55
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Charles 2 of Spain posted:Cholera is a bacterial disease you can't really compare it to viruses like smallpox and measles. OoCC handwaved that "every disease ever" was solved with natural herd immunity before 1900. I just picked one example for why that was a ridiculous thing to say, I'm not comparing cholera with covid
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Oct 20, 2021 13:58
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UCS Hellmaker posted:Alongside that Chicken pox again had no vaccine until the 1990s, and in many areas was fairly well contained and never truly spread because people would routinely be exposed even in earlier centuries to help prevent the deadly infections as people got older. Chickenpox is like measles and is an airborne pathogen, and spreads faster and more aggressively then covid, yet you never heard of entire regions suddenly coming down with it because of intentional spread by parents. This isn't herd immunity this is just how endemic pathogens work. Almost all kids ended up catching chicken pox and new children would continually be exposed to it. That's not herd immunity at all since the population isn't able to protect the vulnerable group from infection. Covid will likely be similar since it seems like delta would require well over 90% of the population to be immune.
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Oct 20, 2021 14:07
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VitalSigns posted:OoCC handwaved that "every disease ever" was solved with natural herd immunity before 1900. Yeah, but that is literally the mechanism that stopped everyone on earth from having cholera 24/7 from birth and why cholera "outbreaks" are a thing instead of a constant steady state of everyone having cholera over and over perpetually. It feels like you are treating "herd immunity' as the point a disease becomes extinct, instead of the mechanism by which recoverable diseases slowly find it harder and harder to find new hosts and eventually have the trend line of a disease point negative. Like if a cold gets in your house everyone in your house gets that cold, it's inevitable, but then you don't all simply circulate that cold round robin forever until you all die. The population of your house reaches herd immunity, the household outbreak ends. Colds still exist, and another cold will surely eventually strike your home, but for that outbreak, you achieved herd immunity, the virus had no were left to spread and died out in that house. That is all it means.
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Oct 20, 2021 14:20
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Yeah, but that is literally the mechanism that stopped everyone on earth from having cholera 24/7 from birth and why cholera "outbreaks" are a thing instead of a constant steady state of everyone having cholera over and over perpetually. We never reached herd immunity for cholera, cholera came around over and over in the same cities until we found the cause. Getting to "herd immunity" for cholera in a city like London would mean absolutely staggering amounts of death. Owlofcreamcheese posted:It feels like you are treating "herd immunity' as the point a disease becomes extinct, instead of the mechanism by which recoverable diseases slowly find it harder and harder to find new hosts and eventually have the trend line of a disease point negative. Owlofcreamcheese posted:Like if a cold gets in your house everyone in your house gets that cold, it's inevitable, but then you don't all simply circulate that cold round robin forever until you all die. The population of your house reaches herd immunity, the household outbreak ends. Colds still exist, and another cold will surely eventually strike your home, but for that outbreak, you achieved herd immunity, the virus had no were left to spread and died out in that house. That is all it means. Please learn what herd immunity is
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Oct 20, 2021 14:57
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It really seems like you think herd immunity means the disease goes extinct. Literally it's just the statistical notion that if your whole house gets that cold and becomes immune that now your brother who you visit regularly is now less likely to get the disease because now the disease can't spread from someone to you to him. So there is one less route for it to get to him. It doesn't mean your brother is magically imbued with a mystic shield or that colds are gone forever. It's literally just the idea that as more people get a disease it's harder for the disease to spread more. Till it hits a tipping point where statistically most people can not find 2 people to infect.
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Oct 20, 2021 15:18
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Do you think this is a desirable state of being with a disease like covid?
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Oct 20, 2021 15:31
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:It really seems like you think herd immunity means the disease goes extinct. Literally it's just the statistical notion that if your whole house gets that cold and becomes immune that now your brother who you visit regularly is now less likely to get the disease because now the disease can't spread from someone to you to him. So there is one less route for it to get to him. It doesn't mean your brother is magically imbued with a mystic shield or that colds are gone forever. It's literally just the idea that as more people get a disease it's harder for the disease to spread more. Till it hits a tipping point where statistically most people can not find 2 people to infect. At last yes this is nearly correct. Herd immunity is not "the idea that as more people get a disease it's harder for it to spread more" but it is a logical consequence of that fact. The herd immunity threshold is the tipping point where outbreaks die out instead of spreading. That is something that has only been achieved in the 20th century through vaccination. There was never a point before mass vaccination that a detected polio case wasn't a threat because of herd immunity, we never infected all the kids with polio and then polio epidemics were a thing of the past, when polio came to town it ripped through and put huge numbers of kids in the hospital and we did NPI like closing swimming pools etc, not "hey once 7 in 10 kids get it problem solved". The prediction that we're going to reach herd immunity on Oregon without vaccinating to the threshold is dubious imo.
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Oct 20, 2021 15:34
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VitalSigns posted:That is not herd immunity, if you get cholera and recover and don't get it "over and over again" that's immunity, not herd immunity. BACTERIA DO NOT WORK LIKE VIRUSES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK And literally again, smallpox was almost nonexistant in the middle east because they used an early vaccination of mild disease. OOCC hit it on the head, you do not understand herd immunity and think it is akin to the disease being unable to spread period in a community.
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Oct 20, 2021 15:40
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| # ? May 25, 2024 11:51 |
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Maybe an example will make what I'm saying more clear. The trendline of new cases fell in every state in the US at the beginning of this year? Was the number of people who acquired immunity from infection a contributing factor to this decline? Yes without a doubt. Was it because we reached herd immunity? Obviously not, because the trendline went back up over the summer right?
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Oct 20, 2021 15:43
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