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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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OK but what about the predictions we keep seeing that "X country" or "X state" will reach herd immunity in the near future thanks to a mix of vaccination and 'naturally acquired immunity'? Are they at all accurate or reliable?
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Oct 20, 2021 15:43
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VitalSigns posted:At last yes this is nearly correct. Herd immunity is not "the idea that as more people get a disease it's harder for it to spread more" but it is a logical consequence of that fact. The herd immunity threshold is the tipping point where outbreaks die out instead of spreading. Literally the fact you think of polio as something that "comes to town" and "rips through the population" shows you understand that each outbreak would eventually peter out and then years would pass where there was few or no cases of polio in a community. That is all herd immunity is. It the point in that outbreak the disease could not infect enough new people and the outbreak declined. That's all.
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Oct 20, 2021 15:44
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poll plane variant posted:Do you think this is a desirable state of being with a disease like covid? I doubt that very many people on the planet Earth believe that we are better off with an endemic disease like covid. There are probably some misanthropic unibomber type people out there who do, though.
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Oct 20, 2021 15:44
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VitalSigns posted:That is something that has only been achieved in the 20th century through vaccination. The term herd immunity was coined to describe how measles stopped spreading once a sufficient number of people were infected in the 1930s, like 20+ years before a vaccine existed. It's reasonable to say that you can't eradicate viruses without vaccination, or that herd immunity is not achievable given a large enough population without vaccination, but it absolutely can exist for populations, since it's literally based on an observation in an unvaccinated population. 'Populations' could mean a town, or a state, it doesn't need to be global, and herd immunity isn't permanent (practically by definition, although with certain viruses immunity persists long enough that it might as well be provided children build immunity). enki42 fucked around with this message at 15:55 on Oct 20, 2021 |
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Oct 20, 2021 15:50
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The more pertinent question everyone seems to not be talking about: Will we achieve herd immunity with Covid? If so, when and how do you think it will be achieved?
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Oct 20, 2021 15:52
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brugroffil posted:OK but what about the predictions we keep seeing that "X country" or "X state" will reach herd immunity in the near future thanks to a mix of vaccination and 'naturally acquired immunity'? Are they at all accurate or reliable? Yeah, this.
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Oct 20, 2021 15:55
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Gio posted:The more pertinent question everyone seems to not be talking about : Will we achieve herd immunity with Covid? If so, when and how do you think it will be achieved? I think it's best to work from the assumption that there will be not enough protection from the vaccinated for the unvaccinated from vaccinations to have herd immunity in the classical sense. Delta has shown to be quick enough to result in many cases in a shorter but still present contagious presymptomatic period for an infected vaccinated person. That vaccinated person will then usually beat the disease and have some weeks to months of increased resistance to infection from antibodies until those fade away and you are again in a state where infection can happen as frequently as anyone. The big question is if the second, third or fourth Delta infection after vaccination is dealt with more swiftly by the immune system to not get to a contagious stage. If this is the case then eventually herd immunity may be a thing but there will be few people willing to wait that long.
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Oct 20, 2021 16:20
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My impression, and what I've been saying for months and months, is that we reach herd immunity through a combination clawing our way to a 90%+ vaccination rate combined with covid tearing through the unvaccinated over and over again until they either die or naturally develop their own. It'll take years, and I'm setting my expectations accordingly.
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Oct 20, 2021 16:22
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Literally the fact you think of polio as something that "comes to town" and "rips through the population" shows you understand that each outbreak would eventually peter out and then years would pass where there was few or no cases of polio in a community. That is all herd immunity is. It the point in that outbreak the disease could not infect enough new people and the outbreak declined. That's all. The herd immunity threshold for polio is 80%. Did 80% of kids catch polio in every outbreak before vaccination? No, because people did poo poo like closing swimming pools so 80% of the kids wouldn't have to get loving polio for it to go away. That's why outbreaks reoccurred over and over. That's why they didn't end until we could just vaccinate 80+% of the population. I am begging you to learn what herd immunity is, it is not "cases declined". Just read something, anything, a wiki page even.
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Oct 20, 2021 16:28
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I think for at least a couple more years the best case scenario we can hope for is far more stunted waves of the virus, sort of like the flu (standard disclaimer: i'm absolutely not saying COVID is currently like the flu, or even that it wouldn't be more severe than the flu when it has a similar caseload). I think the best reasonable outcome is the world gets used to adopting reasonably minor NPIs during those periods (mask wearing, capacity limitations, vaccine requirements for businesses) and we keep caseloads minor and healthcare systems functioning more or less normally.
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Oct 20, 2021 16:37
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enki42 posted:The term herd immunity was coined to describe how measles stopped spreading once a sufficient number of people were infected in the 1930s, like 20+ years before a vaccine existed. It's reasonable to say that you can't eradicate viruses without vaccination, or that herd immunity is not achievable given a large enough population without vaccination, but it absolutely can exist for populations, since it's literally based on an observation in an unvaccinated population. Yeah this is what I'm saying. Obviously you can achieve herd immunity without vaccines if you look at small enough populations (if I am a hakimori who only ever interacted with my parents and they got covid and recovered our house would achieve herd immunity and I would be protected), however the specific claim that I'm skeptical of is the claim that the state of Oregon is almost there thanks to "natural immunity" among antivaxxers That's the population scale we're talking about and no we never achieved that for measles before vaccination. E: enki42 posted:I think for at least a couple more years the best case scenario we can hope for is far more stunted waves of the virus, sort of like the flu (standard disclaimer: i'm absolutely not saying COVID is currently like the flu, or even that it wouldn't be more severe than the flu when it has a similar caseload). VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 16:41 on Oct 20, 2021 |
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Oct 20, 2021 16:37
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Having just stumbled upon some NMS smallpox pics for the first time in a while, I am reminded that the world would have taken this Covid poo poo a lot more seriously and stamped it out quickly if it left us covered in horrific boils, even if it didn't kill anyone. "It's just the chickenpox bro" I say as I turn into an emaciated version of Ben Grimm.
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Oct 20, 2021 16:39
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How many posts until we achieve herd immunity from this argument?Gio posted:The more pertinent question everyone seems to not be talking about : Will we achieve herd immunity with Covid? If so, when and how do you think it will be achieved? I mean, no one here is qualified to do anything other than make guesses afaik. It's also important to ask what spatial/temporal scales you're talking about. The posters in Aus/NZ commented on rapid vaccination there, we might well get a test soon of the extent herd immunity is possible in cities/regions over there. As to the "how," I asked about how public school mandates for vaccines work in the US. Requiring public K12 students to get COVID shots as they do other vaccines would help immensely, but it seems like those are state/local decisions.
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Oct 20, 2021 16:41
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How are u posted:My impression, and what I've been saying for months and months, is that we reach herd immunity through a combination clawing our way to a 90%+ vaccination rate combined with covid tearing through the unvaccinated over and over again until they either die or naturally develop their own. Yeah I think this is correct, although it's so infectious that I don't see how herd immunity, even if reached, can possibly be maintained if vaccination rates hover around 50%. New people are born and old people die every day. I think it's going to have to be like the measles resurgence, where it keeps hitting unvaccinated people and their kids until finally enough of them wise up and/or mandates get strong enough that we're finally vaccinating enough people. Like how every time there's a measles outbreak among the kids of antivax morons, the ones who actually know kids with measles finally loving vaccinate their own kids.
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Oct 20, 2021 16:47
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Unless you have some relevant data to point out to the thread, let's put a pin in the herd immunity discussion for now. Barely educated guesses are not all that helpful and the bottom line is we aren't there yet, chief. So keep masking up and doing your part to stop the spread and continue gazing in horror at the masses of dumbfucks still not getting vaccinated, at least if you live in the US/UK.
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Oct 20, 2021 16:54
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Well I had a pointless visit to CVS today. Signed up last night for a booster since it's been 6 month since my 2nd Pfizer. I get there this morning, the lady goes "well you don't look 65 so why are you eligible?" I respond that I didn't know there was eligibility. She asks if I'm immunocompromised or have a disability, I say no, she cancels. Like, wtf? We're still doing this? I go on the site after leaving and the only thing that says anything is "if you meet the CDC eligibility requirements", which I assumed was anyone. Upon clicking it, I realized my retail job would've probably qualified me. What the actual gently caress.
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Oct 20, 2021 17:12
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Endymion FRS MK1 posted:Well I had a pointless visit to CVS today. Signed up last night for a booster since it's been 6 month since my 2nd Pfizer. I get there this morning, the lady goes "well you don't look 65 so why are you eligible?" I respond that I didn't know there was eligibility. She asks if I'm immunocompromised or have a disability, I say no, she cancels. It's pretty stupid OP.
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Oct 20, 2021 17:20
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Endymion FRS MK1 posted:Well I had a pointless visit to CVS today. Signed up last night for a booster since it's been 6 month since my 2nd Pfizer. I get there this morning, the lady goes "well you don't look 65 so why are you eligible?" I respond that I didn't know there was eligibility. She asks if I'm immunocompromised or have a disability, I say no, she cancels. This is particularly stupid given the widely available nature of the vaccines in the US, I really can't fathom the reasoning here.
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Oct 20, 2021 17:30
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Professor Beetus posted:This is particularly stupid given the widely available nature of the vaccines in the US, I really can't fathom the reasoning here. She claimed short supply. I'm in Ohio if that matters
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Oct 20, 2021 17:47
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Are there any good sites/visuals out there showing vaccine %'s and states with vaccine mandates? Deadlines, effective rates, that sort of thing? I ask because WA just had a state wide mandate go into place Monday, large employers are starting to establish mandates and so on. I'm really interested to see how many people these mandates can potentially cover and how effective they actually are at raising the overall vaccination rate.
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Oct 20, 2021 18:15
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Endymion FRS MK1 posted:She claimed short supply. I'm in Ohio if that matters I'm not an authority or anything, just surprised when every pharmacy has FREE COVID VACCINES NO WAIT signs up and a national vaccination rate of 47%. Short supply or anticipated short supply? I would go back (to a different one if you feel like it's worth it) and tell them you're a retail worker, since it sounds like that's the truth and it does qualify you per CDC guidelines.
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Oct 20, 2021 18:19
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Based on the CDC guidelines, anyone whose BMI is in the 'overweight' range or above is eligible for a booster. Even if you don't fall into that category, it's not like they're going to measure you at the pharmacy to confirm.
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Oct 20, 2021 18:58
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VitalSigns posted:E: like this is a middle school algebra problem. If the herd immunity threshold is 90%, and you vaccinate 45% of the population and the other 45% get sick and get antibodies you hit herd immunity. Is the disease over now? Well what happens the next day? Old people with immunity die of old age, new babies are born without immunity, kids without immunity have birthdays and age up into vaccination age. How many of those kids do you have to vaccinate to maintain herd immunity? 90%. What happens if you only vaccinate 45% of them? You're not at herd immunity anymore. This is a textbook endemic disease. The news media has more or less been describing the state of endemicity as having “herd immunity”. “Endemic” is, in turn, something like “not a big deal”. It should go without saying that endemic diseases can be a big deal. Tuberculosis and malaria have killed billions in endemic states. Owlofcreamcheese posted:How do you think disease worked before 1900? Just every disease grew exponentially in all places forever? Long‐term Reff of unity is the defining characteristic of endemic disease. The disease is continually spreading, but the number of active cases is constant. Herd immunity, in contrast, is when a disease cannot sustain itself in a population because infected hosts introduced to that population do not encounter enough susceptible hosts. Influenza is endemic everywhere. The U.S. general population has herd immunity to measles. The population of Pakistan does not yet have herd immunity to measles; it is endemic there. Post scriptum: I drafted this before loading the new page and reading Beetus’ pronouncement and if he wants to punish me, so be it. I don’t think people in this topic disagree nearly as much on what COVID is going to look like in the medium future as they do on what terms are appropriate to describe such a situation. The news media has been using terms very wrongly for two years, and some of it rubs off. I don’t claim that my understanding is perfect. My intent is not to get the last word in, but being that the IK dictate is in effect, if you think I’m wrong, you are welcome to PM me as to why I’m wrong (politely).
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Oct 20, 2021 19:05
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Platystemon posted:The news media has more or less been describing the state of endemicity as having “herd immunity”. “Endemic” is, in turn, something like “not a big deal”. Could you provide some examples? I haven't seen anything like this.
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Oct 20, 2021 19:19
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Fritz the Horse posted:How many posts until we achieve herd immunity from this argument? Aus is fast heading towards 90% vaccination. My state just hit 90% first dose yesterday, NSW is at 92.5% first dose. This country will be 90% double vaxxed by Christmas. I expect we'll see a lot of benefits from that, but as to what it means for overall immunity, who knows. I will point out that NSW cases have gone down and are under 300 a day. In a city of 6 million people.
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Oct 20, 2021 22:00
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StrangeThing posted:Aus is fast heading towards 90% vaccination. My state just hit 90% first dose yesterday, NSW is at 92.5% first dose. This country will be 90% double vaxxed by Christmas. I expect we'll see a lot of benefits from that, but as to what it means for overall immunity, who knows. More than 20% of Australia's population is under the age of 16. How can you possibly be at 90% with a first dose?
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Oct 20, 2021 22:07
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Watching Vitalisigns studiously avoid responding to the person who actually studies virology in the conversation(Hellmaker) and only responding to the softer target of OOCC while spending 15 posts getting mad about a 1 line comment about Oregon reaching herd immunity that wasn't even backed up with a quote or a source. Edit: Actually I looked back and that post did have a link, but nobody's quoting that post or replying to what it said, lol vvvv didn't see the IK warning, so my bad, but Hellmaker did respond to you several times including that specific question. Jaxyon fucked around with this message at 22:36 on Oct 20, 2021 |
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Oct 20, 2021 22:11
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I did respond to Hellmaker though, all their post said on the topic was that we'd achieved herd immunity for viruses many times before, I asked for an example and they have yet to reply with one, I assume because the IK asked us to drop the topic before they got back to the thread. Not sure why you're rolling in to stir up poo poo after we were asked to drop it though, I'm not going to continue unless the IK changes their mind.
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Oct 20, 2021 22:26
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fosborb posted:More than 20% of Australia's population is under the age of 16. How can you possibly be at 90% with a first dose?
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Oct 20, 2021 22:58
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SHOTS SHOTS SHOTS SHOTS SHOTS https://twitter.com/politico/status/1450930563678867457?s=20 https://twitter.com/politico/status/1450931649030590476?s=20
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Oct 20, 2021 23:30
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The vaccine is available for age 12+ in Australia but all our targets are set for the 16+ population. We are currently at 67.5% of 12+ with 2 doses or 57.4% of total population with 2 doses Data from here https://www.covid19data.com.au/vaccines
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Oct 20, 2021 23:40
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Here's a fun update from Australia: New South Wales started bending its curve down from a high of 1,500ish a day, and by the time they hit 70% of eligible population double dosed and lifted the lockdown in the first week of October, their cases had already started falling to under 600 a day, and as of now remain under 300 a day. Victoria meanwhile hit 70% eligible population double dosed yesterday and is lifting the lockdown tonight, October 21. But our cases are still at their peak and today we recorded one of our highest ever totals: https://twitter.com/VicGovDH/status/1450948620837130247 More than 1 out of every 300 Victorians currently has COVID. Both Melbourne and Sydney were in hard lockdown for months leading up to the 70% mark. Both cities, despite their dumb rivalry, are exceptionally similar by global standards in terms of size, weather, demographics and density. I have absolutely no idea why we are seeing this disparity and after everything Melbourne has gone through over the past two months it is really, really dispiriting.
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Oct 21, 2021 00:22
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freebooter posted:Here's a fun update from Australia: New South Wales started bending its curve down from a high of 1,500ish a day, and by the time they hit 70% of eligible population double dosed and lifted the lockdown in the first week of October, their cases had already started falling to under 600 a day, and as of now remain under 300 a day. Yeah, I find this increasingly frustrating/interesting. NSW seem to be testing more so it's not that. I'm starting to think that NSW targetting vulnerable LGA's for vaccination early has made the difference. Middle class/ wealthy area's are not only more likely to get the vaccine, they're more likely not to spread it (being easier for them to work from home, take time off, etc etc). Victoria as I understand it has more of a free for all approach, "the centres are there, go get vaccinated" compared to NSW doing vaccination drives in those vulnerable neighbourhoods.
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Oct 21, 2021 00:45
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Illuminti posted:Yeah, I find this increasingly frustrating/interesting. NSW seem to be testing more so it's not that. NSW also has a test positivity rate of around 0.5% opposed to Victoria's 2.5%. They're doing vaccination drives in vulnerable neighbourhoods now, or at least Weimar's always banging on about that at the pressers, but maybe a difference was that NSW did it earlier.
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Oct 21, 2021 00:49
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Illuminti posted:Yeah, I find this increasingly frustrating/interesting. NSW seem to be testing more so it's not that. It isn't even that complicated. NSW went through last year and most of this year without stringent lockdowns. The capacity for obeying rules is higher. Victorians cannot be hosed anymore, and we can argue about whether that's right, or whatever, but people are pretty broken.
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Oct 21, 2021 00:51
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MadJackal posted:SHOTS SHOTS SHOTS SHOTS SHOTS For what it's worth, my partner's mother is a pediatrician who has been giving out vaccines pretty full time. When she got an opportunity to mix-and-match her booster she did so, based on the promising research on heterologous vaccination. She had two Pfizer shots, and followed them with a Moderna. If I have the opportunity, I'll probably follow her lead.
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Oct 21, 2021 01:00
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StrangeThing posted:It isn't even that complicated. But NSW's cases have continued to drop despite being "opened up" for two weeks. Even if Victorians are not obeying the rules as much, the pubs and restaurants are all still closed (until tomorrow! lol) and cases continue to rise. I suspect you'd need to have access to a lot more data than we have to explain the difference.
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Oct 21, 2021 01:02
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Kaal posted:For what it's worth, my partner's mother is a pediatrician who has been giving out vaccines pretty full time. When she got an opportunity to mix-and-match her booster she did so, based on the promising research on heterologous vaccination. She had two Pfizer shots, and followed them with a Moderna. If I have the opportunity, I'll probably follow her lead. CSPAM ahead of the curve once again.
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Oct 21, 2021 01:16
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gently caress CSPAM. The amount of harmful anti-science bullshit that gets peddled in there is insane, I'm surprised it's even allowed. The fact people were encouraging other to get boosters before it was even confirmed as a good idea is reprehensible.
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Oct 21, 2021 01:29
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I think you should take that argument there if you’re so confident in it. This isn’t the thread for that kind of discussion, and I apologize for the glib remark. I don’t want to be responsible for a derail, so please direct all discussion of the topic there or to my PMs.
Gio fucked around with this message at 01:45 on Oct 21, 2021 |
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Oct 21, 2021 01:42
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