[Biosphere Collapse] 420 days of blazin' it

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(Thread IKs: Stereotype)

Blowdryer: Jan 25, 2008

Unless posted:

it was. whole thing was a zoom, and the event host was professor Kate booth, I sent her an email, will probably see them after this weekend

can you share if you get access

# ? Oct 21, 2021 00:56

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# ? May 23, 2024 13:07

Real hurthling!: Sep 11, 2001

actionjackson posted:

what's the best response to "people have said peak oil is coming for 20 years and we are still producing more each year?"

also they will sometimes say that methods are getting more efficient, sophisticated, whatever, so there's no way to know if/when it will happen

afaik

fracking et al. pushed the peak back

these methods are too expensive and mostly went out of business due to inefficiency

# ? Oct 21, 2021 00:56

Complications: Jun 19, 2014

actionjackson posted:

what's the best response to "people have said peak oil is coming for 20 years and we are still producing more each year?"

also they will sometimes say that methods are getting more efficient, sophisticated, whatever, so there's no way to know if/when it will happen

http://crudeoilpeak.info/latest-graphs

# ? Oct 21, 2021 00:57

hobbesmaster: Jan 28, 2008

actionjackson posted:

what's the best response to "people have said peak oil is coming for 20 years and we are still producing more each year?"

also they will sometimes say that methods are getting more efficient, sophisticated, whatever, so there's no way to know if/when it will happen

this is a good summary I think: https://transportgeography.org/contents/chapter4/transportation-and-energy/peak-oil/

it has an actually good chart that gives perspective:

peak oil was a big thing in the late 70s and you can see there was a local peak! except, it turns out that we have enough technology that we'll probably destroy the environment before we run out of oil thanks to tech advancements.

hobbesmaster has issued a correction as of 01:05 on Oct 21, 2021

# ? Oct 21, 2021 00:58

Stereotype: Apr 24, 2010; College Slice

under capitalism we will burn literally everything that can burn. burning things makes money.

# ? Oct 21, 2021 01:00

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

If Oil, as a commodity, was not absolutely vital to the maintenance of civilization and thus the perpetuation of State Control over populations, Peak Oil would have some validity. It would have already happened, and we would be living in a post-peak paradigm circa 2009.

As we have seen with the Fracking Boom, and now Coal generation, nations will do everything in their power to subsidize these industries long past their natural end of life. The entire fracking industry suffered an aggregate loss of more than $400 Billion during the course of that boom, and evaporated billions more in capital.

Viewing that through the lens of an economic "loss" is foolish, of course, what it was - was the price the US Government was willing to pay to artificially keep fuel prices low and the price of the goods and services which rely on them low as well.

"Peak Oil" will come, not when the oil runs out, but when the apparatus of the state can either no longer afford or is functional enough to subsidize it from the money printer in order to maintain the status quo.

The end result will be very abrupt and violent as a result, vs. the managed decline curve of traditional peak oil projections.

# ? Oct 21, 2021 01:12

bowser: Apr 7, 2007

The world is desolate. The last vestiges of humanity cling onto life in their brutal new reality.

Still, Joe Biden tweets.

"Our Build Back Better plan will protect the environment and create jobs."

"It's time for the wealthiest Americans to pay their fair share. I'm gonna put an end to that."

A photo of himself walking down a hallway purposefully.

# ? Oct 21, 2021 02:12

kater: Nov 16, 2010

actionjackson posted:

what's the best response to "people have said peak oil is coming for 20 years and we are still producing more each year?"

�lol�

# ? Oct 21, 2021 02:13

Cup Runneth Over: Aug 8, 2009; She said life's
Too short to worry
Life's too long to wait
It's too short
Not to love everybody
Life's too long to hate

actionjackson posted:

what's the best response to "people have said peak oil is coming for 20 years and we are still producing more each year?"

# ? Oct 21, 2021 02:21

err: Apr 11, 2005; I carry my own weight no matter how heavy this shit gets...

quote:

A huge leak of documents seen by BBC News shows how countries are trying to change a crucial scientific report on how to tackle climate change.

The leak reveals Saudi Arabia, Japan and Australia are among countries asking the UN to play down the need to move rapidly away from fossil fuels.

It also shows some wealthy nations are questioning paying more to poorer states to move to greener technologies.

This "lobbying" raises questions for the COP26 climate summit in November.

It shows countries pushing back on UN recommendations for action just days before they will be asked to make significant commitments to slow down climate change and keep global warming to 1.5 degrees.

The leaked documents consist of more than 32,000 submissions made by governments, companies and other interested parties to the team of scientists compiling a UN report designed to bring together the best scientific evidence on how to tackle climate change.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58982445

# ? Oct 21, 2021 02:52

The Protagonist: Jun 29, 2009; The average is 5.5? I thought it was 4. This is very unsettling.

metacrabs in a megabucket

# ? Oct 21, 2021 03:22

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

I shared an article about PFAS etc loving up all our endocrines the other day, it's upthread somewhere. I came across this series of blog posts recently and found this particular part fascinating. I really recommend reading (or at least skimming) the whole series, though, it's about 12 posts long.

https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2021/07/13/a-chemical-hunger-part-iii-environmental-contaminants/

quote:

We need a theory that can account for all of the mysteries we reviewed earlier. Another way to put this is to say that, based on the evidence, we�re looking for a factor that:

Changed over the last hundred years

With a major shift around 1980

And whatever it is, there is more of it every year

It doesn�t affect people living nonindustrialized lives, regardless of diet

But it does affect lab animals, wild animals, and animals living in zoos

It has something to do with palatable human snackfoods, unrelated to nutritional value

It differs in its intensity by altitude for some reason

And it appears to have nothing to do with our diets

Environmental contamination by artificial, human-synthesized compounds fits this picture very well, and no other account does.

quote:

Obesity is less common at high altitudes because of the watershed. Environmental contaminants build up as water flows downhill and are in much higher concentrations as you approach sea level.

For example, take a look at this map of by-state obesity levels from the CDC:

The Mississippi watershed is America�s largest drainage basin, covering 41% of the country. If you compare this map of state-level obesity to a map of the Mississippi watershed (below), you�ll see that every single state with obesity rates of >35% borders on a river from this watershed system. Also informative is that the three states at the mouth of the river, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Louisiana, are #1, #3, and #4 in the nation in terms of obesity rate (39.5%, 37.1%, and 36.8%, respectively).

Obesity rates are high everywhere in America, but we can see that they are higher in states where the groundwater has covered more distance, and had more time to accumulate contaminants (see continental watershed map below). States where groundwater comes from shorter river systems have a clear tendency towards lower (though still in the range of 25%-30%) rates of obesity.

If this is the case, we should also see similar patterns in other countries.

It�s hard to find good province-level maps of obesity for China, but most of them look something like this:

China has two major rivers, the Yangzi and the Yellow river. Comparing our map of obesity to a map of China�s rivers, we see that Shandong Province, with the highest rate of obesity, is at the mouth of the Yellow River. Shanghai, at the mouth of the Yangzi, is not quite as obese, but still more obese than the neighboring provinces. And in general we see that provinces at lower elevations are more obese.

There are always a few confusing outliers, of course. Why are Maine, North Dakota, and Alabama so obese? In China, why are Xinjiang and Heilongjian provinces so obese? The answer is that watersheds play a role in the distribution of contaminants, but are not the whole story.

In some cases, though, the answer may come back to watersheds after all. For example, Xinjiang province�s main watershed is the Tarim Basin, an endorheic basin that captures water and has no outlet. Rain that falls in the Tarim Basin flows to Lop Nur and stays there. The water might evaporate, but any contaminants it carried will stay in the basin.

We see similar trends in data from Iran. In the map of Iran shown below, you can see that many of the most obese provinces are near the Caspian Sea, another endorheic basin. We weren�t able to find similar maps for Russia or for Kazakhstan, two other large countries bordering on the Caspian, but we would expect them to look similar.

There are obvious and often extreme differences in obesity between people at 0 ft of altitude and 500 ft of altitude, both in the US and in other countries. The changes in CO2 aren�t enough to make any difference, but water runoff could.

It�s important to note that altitude itself doesn�t affect obesity directly. Instead, altitude is a proxy for how high an area is in the watershed, which is itself a proxy for how badly the local water supply is contaminated. This is why Mississippi is more obese than low-lying areas of California. In California the water supply hasn�t traveled nearly as far in its path to the ocean, and has traveled past fewer farms, highways, cities, and factories.

# ? Oct 21, 2021 03:29

Cup Runneth Over: Aug 8, 2009; She said life's
Too short to worry
Life's too long to wait
It's too short
Not to love everybody
Life's too long to hate

So... does it ruin your metabolism or something? What does having your endocrine system hosed with actually do to you?

# ? Oct 21, 2021 03:39

Mayor Dave: Feb 20, 2009; Bernie the Snow Clown

SKULL.GIF posted:

I shared an article about PFAS etc loving up all our endocrines the other day, it's upthread somewhere. I came across this series of blog posts recently and found this particular part fascinating. I really recommend reading (or at least skimming) the whole series, though, it's about 12 posts long.

https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2021/07/13/a-chemical-hunger-part-iii-environmental-contaminants/

Lol that owns, getting fat from drinking water lmao

# ? Oct 21, 2021 03:41

hobbesmaster: Jan 28, 2008

Cup Runneth Over posted:

So... does it ruin your metabolism or something? What does having your endocrine system hosed with actually do to you?

Well, for one thing the signals that tell you you've had enough to eat are gone.

# ? Oct 21, 2021 03:43

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

Cup Runneth Over posted:

So... does it ruin your metabolism or something? What does having your endocrine system hosed with actually do to you?

tldr: it makes you fat, stupid, infertile, and highly prone to diabetes and cancer.

Basically the living organism is a finely balanced mess regulated by hormones produced by the endocrine system. When that gets hosed with, the endocrine system makes something that's not 100% right. You ever open a bag of candy and see a piece that didn't come out the mold quite right and it's this shapeless blob that's probably rock hard or of slimy consistency?

# ? Oct 21, 2021 03:43

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

Ever notice how all the ~~heavily plasticked~~ advanced and Westernized regions are the ones becoming very fat and also having plummeting birthrates?

# ? Oct 21, 2021 03:45

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

There's a sociological elephant in the room which exploded onto the scene in recent decades, and I am not going to be the one to say it until I see an article which attempts to map it similarly to further confirm.

# ? Oct 21, 2021 03:55

hobbesmaster: Jan 28, 2008

is it capitalism

# ? Oct 21, 2021 03:59

Slavvy: Dec 11, 2012

Rime posted:

There's a sociological elephant in the room which exploded onto the scene in recent decades, and I am not going to be the one to say it until I see an article which attempts to map it similarly to further confirm.

? We already know the internet makes you stupid, not a stretch that it makes you fat and impotent as well

# ? Oct 21, 2021 04:11

Stereotype: Apr 24, 2010; College Slice

it's actually capitalism

# ? Oct 21, 2021 04:12

Xaris: Jul 25, 2006; Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

hobbesmaster posted:

is it capitalism

nominally yes a not-minor component is socioeconomic capitalism, but wild animals and animals kept in captivity on strict diets aren't capitalists. neither are ovaries and testicles which are dying (good)

# ? Oct 21, 2021 04:21

Koirhor: Jan 14, 2008; by Fluffdaddy

I don�t know about all that appalachia is above sea level and seems fat to me

# ? Oct 21, 2021 04:23

actionjackson: Jan 12, 2003

obesity rates weren't anywhere nearly as high even 40 years ago. when did the PFAS stuff start?

# ? Oct 21, 2021 04:23

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

Rime posted:

There's a sociological elephant in the room which exploded onto the scene in recent decades, and I am not going to be the one to say it until I see an article which attempts to map it similarly to further confirm.

But you'll certainly feel comfortable to tease clueless posters about it lol. I'm sure what you're referring to is being studied somewhere but I don't know if it'll pass review.

actionjackson posted:

obesity rates weren't anywhere nearly as high even 40 years ago. when did the PFAS stuff start?

It takes time for plastic to breakdown and get shredded finely enough to get in our water without being noticeable, and also time for it to go from 5% ubiquity to 80% ubiquity among our containers

# ? Oct 21, 2021 04:23

KaptainKrunk: Feb 6, 2006

actionjackson posted:

what's the best response to "people have said peak oil is coming for 20 years and we are still producing more each year?"

also they will sometimes say that methods are getting more efficient, sophisticated, whatever, so there's no way to know if/when it will happen

1) conventional oil peaked in 2007; we're plateauing right now
2) fracking was an entirely subsidized, QE, geopolitical play that failed. All the good spots are sucked up and the industry has no will or desire to grow even if it could.
3) Saudi Arabia and Russia exaggerate their production capacity by counting drawdowns from inventories as excess production capacity.

# ? Oct 21, 2021 04:32

Hubbert: Mar 25, 2007; At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

actionjackson posted:

what's the best response to "people have said peak oil is coming for 20 years and we are still producing more each year?"

also they will sometimes say that methods are getting more efficient, sophisticated, whatever, so there's no way to know if/when it will happen

https://bylinetimes.com/2021/10/20/oil-system-collapsing-so-fast-it-may-derail-renewables-warn-french-government-scientists/

quote:

The key to understanding all this is in how the new study, published in Elsevier�s Applied Energy journal, applies the concept of �Energy Return On Investment� (EROI).

Pioneered by systems ecologist Professor Charles Hall (whom I worked with on my book Failing States, Collapsing Systems) EROI measures how much energy you must use to extract energy for a given resource or technology. The metric works as a simple ratio that estimates the quantity of energy you can get out for every single unit of energy that�s put in. So obviously, the higher the ratio the better, because it means you can get more bang for your buck.

The new study is authored by three French government scientists � Louis Delannoy, Pierre-Yves Longaretti and Emmanuel Prados of the National Institute for Research in Digital Science and Technology (INRIA) which operates under France�s Ministry of National Education and the Ministry of Economy, Finance and Industry � along with David J. Murphy, an environmental scientist and energy expert at St. Lawrence University in New York.

Their research found that 15.5% � more than a tenth � of the energy produced from oil worldwide is already necessary to keep producing all the oil.

Yet this is getting worse, not better. Since the production of the easiest-to-get conventional oil slowed down and plateaued around fifteen years ago, we�re increasingly relying on forms of difficult-to-extract unconventional oil that uses greater amounts of energy for more complex techniques like fracking.

Jevons' paradox essentially ensures that all energy efficiency gains or new sources of energy (see: renewables) are captured for the purposes of consumption due to reduced prices (increased supply or supplementation), enabling further consumption (demand) of said fuel.

Necessity becomes the mother of invention, and invention eventually becomes the mother of necessity.

Hubbert has issued a correction as of 04:36 on Oct 21, 2021

# ? Oct 21, 2021 04:33

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

Hubbert posted:

Jevons' paradox essentially ensures that all energy efficiency gains or new sources of energy (see: renewables) are captured for the purposes of consumption due to reduced prices (increased supply or supplementation), enabling further consumption (demand) of said fuel.

Necessity becomes the mother of invention, and invention eventually becomes the mother of necessity.

This exact same phenomenon manifests with efforts to reduce traffic congestion by widening highways leading to greater congestion.

Greed may be the singular driving principle of the universe.

# ? Oct 21, 2021 04:42

Xaris: Jul 25, 2006; Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

actionjackson posted:

obesity rates weren't anywhere nearly as high even 40 years ago. when did the PFAS stuff start?

# ? Oct 21, 2021 04:45

BIG HEADLINE: Jun 13, 2006; "Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

actionjackson posted:

obesity rates weren't anywhere nearly as high even 40 years ago. when did the PFAS stuff start?

Teflon was the first one through the door and into everyone's bodies. I mean, hell, there was an entire Seinfeld episode about George's ~GoreTex coat~ (I never even watched the show and I know about this), and that was *after* quite a lot of people had made a connection between Teflon and bad poo poo.

Teflon's been a consumer product since the late 50s/early 60s, and before that, it was being used in a military capacity, so it was still leaking into the environment as far back as the early/mid-40s.

The other x-factor is that none of the fattest states in the US are particularly prosperous, and cheap, lovely food is more affordable. I'm not saying PFAS isn't a causal agent, but it's by no means the only one.

# ? Oct 21, 2021 04:46

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

Cheap, lovely food is also far more likely to have multiple and repeated contacts with plastic throughout its lifespan of being processed.

# ? Oct 21, 2021 04:57

kater: Nov 16, 2010

lol love to feel uncomfortable getting a glass of water

# ? Oct 21, 2021 04:59

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

kater posted:

lol love to feel uncomfortable getting a glass of water

It's like bug parts and rat poo poo in cereal. Once you find out, you're like "Eugh", but, you know, you've been living like this all along. Drink up

Also that bottled water is absolutely worse for you than the glass of tap water

# ? Oct 21, 2021 05:03

Lpzie: Nov 20, 2006

kater posted:

lol love to feel uncomfortable getting a glass of water

DO NOT, MY FRIENDS, BECOME ADDICTED TO WATER

# ? Oct 21, 2021 05:03

Hubbert: Mar 25, 2007; At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

kater posted:

Biosphere Collapse: lol love to feel uncomfortable getting a glass of water

# ? Oct 21, 2021 05:03

Minera: Sep 26, 2007; All your friends and foes,
they thought they knew ya,
but look who's in your heart now.

Rime posted:

There's a sociological elephant in the room which exploded onto the scene in recent decades, and I am not going to be the one to say it until I see an article which attempts to map it similarly to further confirm.

the most i feel safe to expand on this is that the endocrine system is provably disrupted by plastic, and the endocrine system controls hormones that heavily play into sex and gender

# ? Oct 21, 2021 05:10

Hubbert: Mar 25, 2007; At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

Minrad posted:

the most i feel safe to expand on this is that the endocrine system is provably disrupted by plastic, and the endocrine system controls hormones that heavily play into sex and gender

i can't believe we turned the frogs gay

# ? Oct 21, 2021 05:12