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(Thread IKs: fart simpson)
 
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30.5 Days
Nov 19, 2006

MSDOS KAPITAL posted:

ICBMs and SLBMs are closely-related weapons system but there is still the issue of ICBMs coming from more-or-less a known direction and location (and thus with a pretty easy to predict re-entry profile) vs SLBMs which can come from anywhere. Maybe that doesn't matter anymore? But if that doesn't matter then the risk (and deterrent effect) posed by a hypersonic missile should be similarly low.

ICBMs are already hypersonic. These new things the main deal is they go up and they come down. They don't got parabolas. So they can conceal your target but also they don't spend much time in the part of the atmosphere that missile defense can do stuff in.

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Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.

30.5 Days posted:

ICBMs are already hypersonic. These new things the main deal is they go up and they come down. They don't got parabolas. So they can conceal your target but also they don't spend much time in the part of the atmosphere that missile defense can do stuff in.

wait so does it go up into space and 'hang out' until the earth rotation reaches it's target then it comes down? but surely a country that has such an overwhelming space surveillance system like the US would have the ability to find it in?

Oneiros
Jan 12, 2007



Al-Saqr posted:

wait so does it go up into space and 'hang out' until the earth rotation reaches it's target then it comes down? but surely a country that has such an overwhelming space surveillance system like the US would have the ability to find it in?

you can get up to some sneaky poo poo in space. the u.s. can't even track planes in its territory, much less a dark military hardware in orbit around the entire planet

genericnick
Dec 26, 2012

Al-Saqr posted:

wait so does it go up into space and 'hang out' until the earth rotation reaches it's target then it comes down? but surely a country that has such an overwhelming space surveillance system like the US would have the ability to find it in?

Fast poo poo with no clear trajectory is a nightmare to track.

Oneiros
Jan 12, 2007



of course this is why any sort of space launch capability is indistinguishable from offensive military tech

MSDOS KAPITAL
Jun 25, 2018





30.5 Days posted:

ICBMs are already hypersonic. These new things the main deal is they go up and they come down. They don't got parabolas. So they can conceal your target but also they don't spend much time in the part of the atmosphere that missile defense can do stuff in.
Yeah I know the difference between these different systems and more or less what they do it's more the tactical advantages of one vs the other I'm not totally clear on, and the ramifications to MAD. I might be wrong but I think I've read that our missile defenses vs ballistic missiles rely pretty heavily on knowing where they're coming from and where they're going. My point was that with SLBMs you don't know where they're coming from until they're already in flight and on their way and so your remark about "magic that stops missiles" doesn't totally apply. Maybe we have missile defense now that is agile enough to reliably stop those, but I haven't heard of it - afaik even defense against ICBMs is pretty spotty.

To bring it back to my original point: "evading" missile defense (in the sense of early detection i.e. so the country you're launching missiles against doesn't have time to get ICBMs in the air before they've been hit, and so you're instead faced with the prospect of a weakened second strike rather than the full brunt of their arsenal) doesn't seem to be the point of this system. But, that's not what you meant by missile defense either, as I now realize. I think tractor fanatic had the right of it when he pointed out that these weapons would, in the event of a first strike on China by the US, increase the threat posed even by a weakened second strike due to their ability to evade "active" missile defense. So if that's what you're trying to get at here, then yeah I understand and I agree - with the caveat that, again, with the resources China has presumably invested in hypersonic (glide) missile technology, that I'm just surprised they don't have a more robust submarine program since that's presumably better ROI than this. Unless I'm misunderstanding the role that submarines and SLBMs play in all this, these new missiles don't really change the strategic landscape all that much (because they are just filling a role already occupied by SLBMs). But, you know, defense in depth is a thing as well, of course.

At any rate Torpor's claim that this all indicates that China considers a first strike a viable option, seems unsupportable to me.

MSDOS KAPITAL
Jun 25, 2018





Worth pointing out that, historically anyway, the real first strike technology was stealth bombers. Wonder that we're the only country with a serious investment in those.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
I think one way to look at it is to compare it to that article about China having multiple concurrent projects exploring every avenue of nuclear power generation. Yes, there's arguably a better argument for SLBMs as a better answer for achieving the strategic goals that's also accomplished by a "hypersonic missile", but it's a fair bet that China is pursuing both this project, and also developing new/more SSBNs besides.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

it's gotta be way easier to maintain and keep at acceptable readiness these new missiles than submarines AND missiles

Palladium
May 8, 2012

Very Good
✔️✔️✔️✔️

i say swears online posted:

it's gotta be way easier to maintain and keep at acceptable readiness these new missiles than submarines AND missiles

All china needs are buzzing crickets

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Palladium posted:

All china needs are buzzing crickets

or overworked state department employees and deranged lawmakers and media! they could boogeyman their way to our downfall by posting a picture of a fortune cookie with a thumbtack in it on facebook

Not So Fast
Dec 27, 2007



Goatstein going from obsessing over Glenn Greenwald to obsessing over China is certainly a weird turn

genericnick
Dec 26, 2012

gradenko_2000 posted:

I think one way to look at it is to compare it to that article about China having multiple concurrent projects exploring every avenue of nuclear power generation. Yes, there's arguably a better argument for SLBMs as a better answer for achieving the strategic goals that's also accomplished by a "hypersonic missile", but it's a fair bet that China is pursuing both this project, and also developing new/more SSBNs besides.

Possible. Didn't they also get stuck in fighter engine production? I'm sure they could solve most every technical problem by throwing more resources at it, but even China's resources aren't unlimited. Throwing everything you have at power generation makes a lot of sense. Throwing everything at achieving the highest kill/death ratio when the world ends is less so.

Corky Romanovsky
Oct 1, 2006

Soiled Meat
These materials, we allege, were obtained via cyber magic; you may safely ignore the contents and instead rant about China, Iran, North Korea, or Russia.
https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1451405540404383750

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

Corky Romanovsky posted:

These materials, we allege, were obtained via cyber magic; you may safely ignore the contents and instead rant about China, Iran, North Korea, or Russia.
https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1451405540404383750

lol if I was China I’d very publicly put Uighurs in as many factories as possible and dare the west to boycott everything over an imagined genocide

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
https://twitter.com/hiketaker/status/1430334200415203329

AnimeIsTrash
Jun 30, 2018

These materials may have been obtained through hacking

Lol

Anime Schoolgirl
Nov 28, 2002

Corky Romanovsky posted:

These materials, we allege, were obtained via cyber magic; you may safely ignore the contents and instead rant about China, Iran, North Korea, or Russia.
https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1451405540404383750
WARNING: this news article is actually legitimate

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

AnimeIsTrash posted:

These materials may have been obtained through hacking

Lol

https://twitter.com/genius_posting/status/1364727802969350144

Hedenius
Aug 23, 2007

Not So Fast posted:

Goatstein going from obsessing over Glenn Greenwald to obsessing over China is certainly a weird turn
Don't tell me you don't remember banned SA-poster Pro-PRC Laowai? Looking up why he was banned I found a post from 2012 that I just have to share a few parts of:



Ghost Leviathan
Mar 2, 2017

Exploration is ill-advised.

Boss fight energy

fart simpson
Jul 2, 2005

DEATH TO AMERICA
:xickos:

AnimeIsTrash posted:

These materials may have been obtained through hacking

Lol

lol

Neurolimal
Nov 3, 2012

Jetto Jagga posted:

Whatever happened to fnox or whatever his name was, the venezuelan dude with the bird av who embodied the oppressed spirit of the vzn people

I havent read his D&D posts but he chats in a goon discord & Venezuela came up, he seemed to be more into economic wonk than "president trump/biden my people yearn for freedom", and is just generally peeved about how the US sanctions drew attention away from that

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020

Corky Romanovsky posted:

These materials, we allege, were obtained via cyber magic; you may safely ignore the contents and instead rant about China, Iran, North Korea, or Russia.
https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1451405540404383750

How else can you push them into Independent movement?

Atopian
Sep 23, 2014

I need a security perimeter with Venetian blinds.

Hedenius posted:

Don't tell me you don't remember banned SA-poster Pro-PRC Laowai? Looking up why he was banned I found a post from 2012 that I just have to share a few parts of:





Now imagine him in a wechat group.

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

Raskolnikov38 posted:

lol if I was China I’d very publicly put Uighurs in as many factories as possible and dare the west to boycott everything over an imagined genocide

:hmmyes:

That would be one way for US to solve the supply chain backlog.

Stringent
Dec 22, 2004


image text goes here

lol

dead gay comedy forums
Oct 21, 2011


Corky Romanovsky posted:

These materials, we allege, were obtained via cyber magic; you may safely ignore the contents and instead rant about China, Iran, North Korea, or Russia.
https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1451405540404383750

omfg somebody might be doing a Serious Journalism!

Some Guy TT
Aug 30, 2011

https://twitter.com/drogon_dracarys/status/1451547252258902021

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

gradenko_2000 posted:

I think one way to look at it is to compare it to that article about China having multiple concurrent projects exploring every avenue of nuclear power generation. Yes, there's arguably a better argument for SLBMs as a better answer for achieving the strategic goals that's also accomplished by a "hypersonic missile", but it's a fair bet that China is pursuing both this project, and also developing new/more SSBNs besides.
Missiles are cheap, and when you aren't using them cost practically nothing. Subs require crews, maintenance, training, and a shitload of doctrine and making a good SSBN also requires a few decades of R&D that China hasn't done. A hypersonic sub-orbital aircraft is a very useful thing when you also want to do stuff like project conventional power, spy on people, and backdoor military funding into your civilian space program. An SSBN is less useful in those respects as it's really only good at very quietly waiting for the world to end, and doesn't exactly have a lot of civilian applications.

As long as you stay away from the Pandora's Box that is (F)OBS a hypersonic toy plane is a great tool that isn't too terribly destabilizing.

Rent-A-Cop has issued a correction as of 17:22 on Oct 22, 2021

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020
Hypersonic sub orbital tourism, crewed by the oldest crazy Chinese actor. Jackie Chan

Maximo Roboto
Feb 4, 2012

Hubbert posted:

i am truly proud that the proud US Marines will carry on the tradition of the KMT carpetbaggers

The same KMT carpetbaggers that Beijing is eagerly courting just because they happen to be pro-reunification, politics makes strange bedfellows

Torpor
Oct 20, 2008

.. and now for my next trick, I'll pretend to be a political commentator...

HONK HONK

MSDOS KAPITAL posted:

.

At any rate Torpor's claim that this all indicates that China considers a first strike a viable option, seems unsupportable to me.

I was going off the Wikipedia entry for FOBS and the pentagons analysis of the system in the 1960s. I suppose the advance of technology has changed the calculus, but a missile designed to avoid early warning is pretty sus. admittedly the US has analogous systems like the b-2; and not to mention SLBMs.

in any case the reality of MAD is that nuclear weapons have a strange contradiction going on in that they are infinitely valuable only so long as they remain unused, and the second they are launched or dropped they are probably the most costly, least valuable item on the planet and a nearly infinite liability.

edit: they are designed to not be used but look like they will be used even though you never ever want to use them; so it takes a helluva sell to be convincing.

Torpor has issued a correction as of 17:51 on Oct 22, 2021

AnimeIsTrash
Jun 30, 2018

https://twitter.com/mrsmontenegro78/status/1449842372993593347

Agrajag
Jan 21, 2006

gat dang thats hot

white liberals, ugh

https://twitter.com/truther_justice/status/1450118693502005252?s=20

edit: nvm i dont know wtf this guy is saying he is

Some Guy TT
Aug 30, 2011

https://mobile.twitter.com/koreasociety/status/1451544854912241671

Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

https://twitter.com/EnesKanter/status/1451581224087134209?s=20

HerraS
Apr 15, 2012

Looking professional when committing genocide is essential. This is mostly achieved by using a beret.

Olive drab colour ensures the genocider will remain hidden from his prey until it's too late for them to do anything.



shut the gently caress up gulenist

Agrajag
Jan 21, 2006

gat dang thats hot

pretty sus when this guy is literally being posted all over social media, imgur, reddit, and probably facebook too and being framed as a brave hero for speaking up

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wynott dunn
Aug 9, 2006

What is to be done?

Who or what can challenge, and stand a chance at beating, the corporate juggernauts dominating the world?

maybe Xi can make an Uyghur day and then go on vacation for it like Trudeau did for Truth and Reconciliation Day

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