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That's a wrap. Hope some of you got in.
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Oct 15, 2021 02:35
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was able to dump my shorts at .18 a few hours ago, almost got caught with the hot potato. didn't expect sleepy joe to be up so late
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Oct 15, 2021 03:47
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does he even really have to personally sign it
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Oct 15, 2021 03:53
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Thanks for the heads up on this one! I got too scared to max it out in the 70s, but made a decent chunk.
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Oct 15, 2021 03:59
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Now I'm thinking about throwing more down on the Dec. 10 debt limit... I can't see the GOP screwing over the whole Country and economy right before Christmas... Right guys? 
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Oct 17, 2021 02:19
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Now I'm thinking about throwing more down on the Dec. 10 debt limit... I can't see the GOP screwing over the whole Country and economy right before Christmas... Right guys? Sure lol
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Oct 17, 2021 03:28
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Now I'm thinking about throwing more down on the Dec. 10 debt limit... I can't see the GOP screwing over the whole Country and economy right before Christmas... Right guys? You're probably right, but there is no rush to max out here. Put in a third or half now and see how things swing. When is is all said and done, I think the debt ceiling is raised. Both Trump and McConnell are evil. Trump is pure lawlessness and chaos. Mitch is just as evil but he lawful and organized. Mitch's talent is to leverage the corrupt system for his benefit and ram evil through loopholes and contorting history to make it seem like there is a precedent. But at the end of the day Mitch is not going to burn it all down and there (still) at least 10 country club Chamber of Commerce type Republicans left he can count on. Where you could get in trouble is the hard end of the market is December 10th. It is entirely possible that the government runs out of borrowing capacity some point in the first week of December as forecast but they sting it out a few more weeks with accounting tricks and congress doesn't cut a deal until after. Zeta Taskforce has issued a correction as of 18:34 on Oct 17, 2021 |
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Oct 17, 2021 18:28
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this is a proxy for that market with a huge upside https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7164/Will-the-Senate-end-filibuster-on-any-bill-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2021 i'm in at current prices; this will almost certainly spike when mitch plays brinksmanship again and i'll hope to sell in the low 20s
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Oct 17, 2021 21:26
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Zeta Taskforce posted:You're probably right, but there is no rush to max out here. Put in a third or half now and see how things swing. Agreed. I put a couple hundred down and I'll see what happens. i say swears online posted:this is a proxy for that market with a huge upside I'll play. These markets are also a little exciting, Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021? Will Donald Trump be indicted by Apr. 1?
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Oct 18, 2021 04:12
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that supreme court market is not actually exciting
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Oct 18, 2021 06:18
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i say swears online posted:that supreme court market is not actually exciting Eh, in hindsights it's not but 2022 market would be fun.
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Oct 18, 2021 06:21
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the better market for that would be Roe Repeal, which is the only possible way the supreme court market would jump. i'd still bet no on both
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Oct 18, 2021 06:23
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Why repeal Roe when you can get the policy results of repealing Roe without ever triggering the "Roe v Wade has been officially repealed" news cycle and backlash?
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Oct 18, 2021 06:56
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Ditocoaf posted:Why repeal Roe when you can get the policy results of repealing Roe without ever triggering the "Roe v Wade has been officially repealed" news cycle and backlash? To more fully own the libs, I assume
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Oct 18, 2021 07:42
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Ditocoaf posted:Why repeal Roe when you can get the policy results of repealing Roe without ever triggering the "Roe v Wade has been officially repealed" news cycle and backlash? Dog Catches Car theory. the cyncal bunch rile up the base and after three generations of this since john birch you start to get an insular group of true believers. i'm not in this camp btw; i'm committed to the belief that the supreme court will fukuyama its way through until it's overthrown by force 
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Oct 18, 2021 08:30
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that's a pretty sweet ~20% interest rate on a 6 month bond. Thanks for the info!
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Oct 18, 2021 11:35
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https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7431/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next I don't think anything will happen to him but I threw down 5 bux on Bolsanaro https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1450541375888535553 Wrex Ruckus has issued a correction as of 00:38 on Oct 20, 2021 |
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Oct 20, 2021 00:35
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I didn't realize a world leader actually did this on purpose and will likely get away with it 
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Oct 20, 2021 01:18
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I though I was done but they keep pulling me back in. I get better ROIs with PI than with any other way I've tried to invest what little money I have. So what do we think about VA? TMac got it in the bag? Or will this be the first domino in the looming midterm bloodbath? I'm in on TMac winning.
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Oct 24, 2021 04:09
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hoping tmac will dip on election day and then i'll max him
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Oct 24, 2021 05:49
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I hope that Predictit gets its poo poo together and the site doesn't crash on election day so I can do some actual trading but whatever. I'm using Kalshi for some things so I'll see if it holds up there too.
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Oct 24, 2021 13:41
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that's usually only once every four years, midterms are stable iirc
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Oct 24, 2021 18:06
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i say swears online posted:hoping tmac will dip on election day and then i'll max him Same. Virginia seems reliably blue despite whatever Biden is doing.
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Oct 24, 2021 19:05
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Does anyone have thoughts on reconciliation package size: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7291/How-much-spending-in-the-reconciliation-package I put some money on B2 which has gained 10 cents in the past 2 days, not sure if i want to stay on it, sell it off, or dip into B3
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Oct 27, 2021 20:17
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I don't quite understand these markets where you're betting a wide range of outcomes. In the past, I've just bought multiple lines but end up breaking even.
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Oct 28, 2021 01:46
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 Should have gone with my gut and gotten some cheap Youngkin YES in the VA market a little ways back. Did the new poll change any minds or do you think TMac still pulls it out? I've wanted to try and get in but I really don't feel like I have a grasp on the race, which is why I talked myself out of jumping in before.I guess also a heads up that the Fox News poll that has Youngkin up moved the market by 10 cents.
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Oct 29, 2021 00:30
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i think, based on my luck, that any outcome i bet on will not happen and in fact the opposite will happen therefore youngkin will win, get it on it now while he's still under 50. Virginia is gonna be the first domino after all.
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Oct 29, 2021 00:48
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I bought some T Mac no's, at least if the Republicans win I'll be slightly richer
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Oct 29, 2021 00:55
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Hell at the very least there will probably be an opportunity to sell youngkin high on election day as reports come in even if he doesn't ultimately win.
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Oct 29, 2021 01:06
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My pick to have Dems lose the house next year is UP UP UP! My only regret is not putting in more money earlier. I'm looking at a whopping $5 profit if I sold now.
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Oct 29, 2021 01:31
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I just flipped my position from Tmac to Youngkin, thus ensuring Tmac's victory
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Oct 29, 2021 20:07
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CHUDs are out in force & pretty frothy so it looks like I'll be betting on tmac this round
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Oct 30, 2021 01:48
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If TMac wins in a blowout I will be buying rounds for everyone
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Oct 30, 2021 01:55
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starting my tmac hoard
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Oct 30, 2021 03:14
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okay, i made like $50 riding the youngkin momentum, flipping back to TMac because I do think he'll edge out a tiny win
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Oct 30, 2021 16:08
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https://twitter.com/MikevWUSA/status/1454209826226118659 this is good news..............................................for MAC!!!!
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Oct 30, 2021 16:56
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Is ISIS a thing still, or was there extra overtime money left in the annual budget
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Oct 31, 2021 01:35
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Some small updates on various markets, Whom will the Senate next confirm as Chair of the Federal Reserve? - I think Powell is an easy pick here despite recent scandals mostly because there isn't anyone strong enough to replace his position. Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination? - Conner Lamb is a annoying conservative democratic trying to unseat John Fetterman. It's not going to happen. I get that Fetterman is kind of a popular meme at this point but he's legitimately well liked, does a decent job, etc. Will a debt limit raise be enacted by Dec. 10? - I can't see the GOP screwing over the entire economy right before the Holiday Season. How much spending in the reconciliation package? - After all of the debate, I don't see 1.75t changing. Looks like the moderate democrats manage to severely cut down the bill but that's expected give the current makeup of Congress. They've got podcasts advertised on the main site now as well, I'll check out a few of them out and report back later this week. Gucci Loafers has issued a correction as of 01:07 on Nov 1, 2021 |
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Nov 1, 2021 01:03
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Some small updates on various markets, minor nitpick, fetterman isn't the incumbent senator but current Lt. Gov
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Nov 1, 2021 01:40
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I really hate Lamb so he'll probably win out somehow
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Nov 1, 2021 16:43
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