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theHUNGERian posted:Even after reading the OP, I am still brain damaged enough to consider buying a house as my rental of 14 years is slowly going downhill. I am working on getting preapproved for a loan, but in the meantime I am looking at recent sales on zillow ... You should not concern yourself with listings that have nothing other than google street view, for one, or complete and total outliers like that. That whole "listing" looks like a bad public data scrape (i.e., they refied it or something and zillow screwed up mapping the data to the correct fields).
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Nov 4, 2021 15:18
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theHUNGERian posted:Even after reading the OP, I am still brain damaged enough to consider buying a house as my rental of 14 years is slowly going downhill. I am working on getting preapproved for a loan, but in the meantime I am looking at recent sales on zillow ... To pile on, Zillow is total, complete garbage and is not to be relied on for just about anything. Maybe you can trust current on-market properties, but I'm not sure I'd even trust that. Zillow entries are rarely done by a person. The vast majority are done by a computer combing through public records or other sites. It doesn't always get it right. If you ever see outliers like this, chances are the data was entered wrong and it's not to be trusted. Nobody who knows what they're doing will take this information seriously as a comp.
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Nov 4, 2021 15:25
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DaveSauce posted:Nobody who knows what they're doing will take this information seriously as a comp.
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Nov 4, 2021 15:30
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My old house, a 1920s SFA house in a dense urban neighborhood, was erroneously listed as a condo on Zillow  there are no condos in the entire neighborhood. Also its "zestimate" was way, way low, like compared to its comparable neighbors (and compared to what i actually bought it for) it was super weirdly low, and i suspect it was because of this erroneous fact.Zillow is handy for browsing active listings on a map with a decent gui, that's all (and even here their facts are sometimes incorrect so you should double check anything that seems off). I could be convinced that their zestimate algorithm is half decent in aggregate, but it has plenty of crazy outliers and is beyond useless for any given individual house.
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Nov 4, 2021 15:34
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Zillow is pretty spot on when it comes to condos in major markets. Lots of very similar units trading in the same building That said my Zestimate got dialed back $20,000 since they imploded Some urban markets sell at a pretty consistent price per square foot by neighborhood, you're buying the land/address primarily, the building on top of it is an unfortunate train wreck you have to live in. All the homes in a neighborhood here are all built to hit the maximum sq ft per lot which is about 1800 sq ft here SFH in the burbs, all bets are off
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Nov 4, 2021 15:37
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If this seller would just accept the fact that he’s not going to get his insane renovation budget back and take our offer before we go on vacation that’d be nice.
Residency Evil fucked around with this message at 18:59 on Nov 4, 2021 |
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Nov 4, 2021 18:05
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Nearly everything I'm looking at (markets all over the US) on Zillow is double (or more) its 2020 valuation. Who is out there buying homes for 100%+ more than what they were worth a year ago? Are you guys saying I shouldn't trust those figures?
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Nov 4, 2021 18:59
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LiterallyAnything posted:Nearly everything I'm looking at (markets all over the US) on Zillow is double (or more) its 2020 valuation. Who is out there buying homes for 100%+ more than what they were worth a year ago? You must be looking at some crazy markets. The median sale price across the country was $322K Q2 of 2020 and is $405k Q3 of 2021. That's more like a 25% increase from the low last year to the high now. Not nothing, certainly, but not double.
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Nov 4, 2021 19:13
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LiterallyAnything posted:Nearly everything I'm looking at (markets all over the US) on Zillow is double (or more) its 2020 valuation. Who is out there buying homes for 100%+ more than what they were worth a year ago? If you're comparing 2020 zestimate to 2021 zestimate, you may as well be reading tea leaves. If you're comparing 2020 zestimate to 2021 sale price, you're only slightly better than above. Your only real comparison is 2020 comps to 2021 comps. And when I say comps, I mean similar houses and using actual sales prices. That's not to say that it's impossible for that crazy of a jump in value, but it's highly unlikely.
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Nov 4, 2021 19:22
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Okay, that makes sense. I'm comparing the 2020 zestimates to 2021. I'm mainly looking at houses on lakes and away from major cities, all along the US/Canadian border. Thanks for the insight.
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Nov 4, 2021 19:31
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Anonymous Zebra posted:Actual local flippers buy houses that are not attractive, and do (cheapass corner-cutting) renovations to bring the homes up to the quality of their neighbors (this is an important concept in flipping)*. Ah hah! That's how flippers do make it work. It's not about fixing up the place - it's about fixing it enough to meet the overall standard of neighborhood.
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Nov 4, 2021 20:04
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LiterallyAnything posted:Okay, that makes sense. I'm comparing the 2020 zestimates to 2021. I'm mainly looking at houses on lakes and away from major cities, all along the US/Canadian border. So just a heads up, lake homes are going to be a different class than other homes. They're often unique for a variety of reasons, so finding good comps is hard. It's not just going to be hard for zillow, but anyone. Crosby B. Alfred posted:Ah hah! That's how flippers do make it work. It's not about fixing up the place - it's about fixing it enough to meet the overall standard of ftfy Flippers only care about selling the house. They will do the minimum amount of work they can get away with while still being able to convince someone to buy it. This results in half-assed work that is surface level only. If it's not visible, then they probably won't touch it. And to be sure, MOST home renovations have a ROI less than what they cost. So ultimately the only way flippers can make money is to buy the house cheap and then do cheap work.
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Nov 4, 2021 20:13
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DaveSauce posted:So just a heads up, lake homes are going to be a different class than other homes. They're often unique for a variety of reasons, so finding good comps is hard. It's not just going to be hard for zillow, but anyone. Not only that, but "away from it all" properties have been very, very hot because that's what a lot of people are looking to do now. I don't doubt at all that class of properties has outperformed the overall market. But Zestimates are still poo poo, especially for things like that. The only time I've seen them not be poo poo is for what is basically high turnover commodity housing (i.e., apartments, condos, stamped out single family home developments).
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Nov 4, 2021 20:41
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Zestimates are probably worse than ever now (not that they were ever very good) due to the highly unusual market. Deep learning models tend to do poorly when they are pushed far outside of their training data - they are far better at interpolating within their domain, complex as it may be, than they are at extrapolating beyond it. So any broad drastic change is likely to gently caress them up.
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Nov 4, 2021 20:47
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Residency Evil posted:If this seller would just accept the fact that he’s not going to get his insane renovation budget back and take our offer before we go on vacation that’d be nice. House listed for an open house this weekend. Looks like we're still looking!
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Nov 4, 2021 20:59
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Residency Evil posted:House listed for an open house this weekend. Looks like we're still looking! You're going to Europe aren't you?  Bon voyage!
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Nov 4, 2021 21:42
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He's definitely flying with Delta
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Nov 4, 2021 21:50
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:He's definitely flying with Delta I was trying to figure out some clever pun about airline choices and/or house buying and realized it was inside me all the time.
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Nov 4, 2021 22:01
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DaveSauce posted:And to be sure, MOST home renovations have a ROI less than what they cost. So ultimately the only way flippers can make money is to buy the house cheap and then do cheap work. Out of sheer curiosity, what home renovations have the best ROI?
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Nov 4, 2021 23:44
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Usually those performed by the buyer after closing, to their taste and specifications.
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Nov 4, 2021 23:55
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Out of sheer curiosity, what home renovations have the best ROI? Renovations allow you to sell your house faster. They do not produce the "I" part of ROI. Actually broken things, especially those that are difficult to quantify the cost of from a non-destructive inspection like a potential homebuyer would get might have an ROI. If you want to reno for you......do that and enjoy it. You are not going to find that one weird trick to make more money from your home this way.
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Nov 5, 2021 00:02
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Motronic posted:Renovations allow you to sell your house faster. They do not produce the "I" part of ROI. Yeah the "best return" renos might return you 40-50 cents on the dollar at sale. They won't magically make you more money.
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Nov 5, 2021 00:06
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The only renovation I would always do before selling is replacing stained and stinky carpet. People will lowball you tens of thousands of dollars if they smell an animal or see Pee Stains, but ~$4,000 at Home Depot will have it looking just fine.
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Nov 5, 2021 00:12
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:The only renovation I would always do before selling is replacing stained and stinky carpet. People will lowball you tens of thousands of dollars if they smell an animal or see Pee Stains, but ~$4,000 at Home Depot will have it looking just fine. That's a great example of "not a renovation". That is a material defect that is being repaired before sale. For an otherwise good condition home you should absolutely repair all material defects before listing. A material defect is not just something that is old or at/past the end of it's life, like a worn carpet. But a piss stained one that stinks is absolutely a material defect. Motronic fucked around with this message at 00:18 on Nov 5, 2021 |
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Nov 5, 2021 00:16
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Also poo poo that's necessary for the house to be move-in-ready. There's a pretty big difference between a place that's ready for you to move in after closing and one where you have to get work done before moving in. Example: a friend sold a house a while back and the one thing he 100% had to do was replace the water heater. It had crapped out right after he moved out to his new place and the realtor made it pretty clear that even if he just tossed in another Home Depot special heater over the weekend it was worth it to not have to tell buyers that there wasn't hot water in the place.
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Nov 5, 2021 00:16
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Buyer countered our offer. Our agent is calling him "insane." He gave us two options: Our offer + 50k, no waiving of the appraisal contingency. Our offer, with waiving of the appraisal/loan approval contingency. How does this make sense.
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Nov 5, 2021 00:31
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That only warrants a "gently caress off" response. The wanting to get rid of the appraisal contingency with all of the new work that was done should tell you everything you need to know.
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Nov 5, 2021 00:42
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The obvious appropriate response is to send back one that's $1000 cheaper with added further contingencies. I don't know what but make something up.
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Nov 5, 2021 00:44
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Motronic posted:That only warrants a "gently caress off" response. I’m just confused how he’s ok with the contingency if we offer 50k more. H110Hawk posted:The obvious appropriate response is to send back one that's $1000 cheaper with added further contingencies. I don't know what but make something up. I’m tempted to offer 100k less but don’t want to be a huge dick since we kind of like this house.
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Nov 5, 2021 00:49
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Garage door contingency
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Nov 5, 2021 00:51
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Residency Evil posted:I’m just confused how he’s ok with the contingency if we offer 50k more. Sounds like they know there's ≤ $50,000 in repair items that will come up during inspection!
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Nov 5, 2021 00:56
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Residency Evil posted:I’m just confused how he’s ok with the contingency if we offer 50k more. Because there's $50 k worth of defects he knows about or he's just a dick you shouldn't do business with unless you can screw them over like that Comcast exec.
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Nov 5, 2021 00:57
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Residency Evil posted:I’m just confused how he’s ok with the contingency if we offer 50k more. Yeah if they think it will underappraise then adding to the offer just makes the problem worse. Clearly they're just trying to get you to drop the appraisal contingency Do you have a financing contingency?
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Nov 5, 2021 01:03
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Sounds like they know there's ≤ $50,000 in repair items that will come up during inspection! Motronic posted:Because there's $50 k worth of defects he knows about or he's just a dick you shouldn't do business with unless you can screw them over like that Comcast exec. Oh yeah duh. Although I’m not sure how not waiving the appraisal is going to help in the end. And I’m super tempted because he is the former chairman of an academic medical department. QuarkJets posted:Yeah if they think it will underappraise then adding to the offer just makes the problem worse. Clearly they're just trying to get you to drop the appraisal contingency Yeah we’re not paying cash but are approved for way over what this house costs.
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Nov 5, 2021 01:11
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Having never done one before, I have to say refinancing is significantly less stressful that buying. I sent the usual W2s, tax returns, and pay stubs to our mortgage person, she sent an estimated closing statement, they asked for a couple clarifying documents, sent a final closing statement, and now the title company comes to our house to sign final paperwork and collect the $50 check that we owe for the trouble. Dropped 1.75% off our current mortgage, saves us about $350/month. The clarifying document was "why was your wife unemployed from Apr 2020 to Apr 2021", with the requested letter being "lol Covid you idiots".
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Nov 5, 2021 01:13
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Just curious RE, what color do you think these are?
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Nov 5, 2021 01:13
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alnilam posted:Zestimates are probably worse than ever now (not that they were ever very good) due to the highly unusual market. Deep learning models tend to do poorly when they are pushed far outside of their training data - they are far better at interpolating within their domain, complex as it may be, than they are at extrapolating beyond it. So any broad drastic change is likely to gently caress them up. When my previous landlord put the house on the market, the zestimate was $1.8M. The asking price was $3.5M, and within two days of hitting the market the zestimate quietly changed to $3-4M.
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Nov 5, 2021 01:51
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Motronic posted:Just curious RE, what color do you think these are? Waive (  ) everything, got it!But hey, that's why we're not waiving anything.  I caught my wife saying "well, if we don't find a house before the baby comes" earlier this week. Really fantastic stuff imho.
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Nov 5, 2021 01:56
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Babies don't require much space, it's the toddler time and beyond that matters more imo People have been raising entire families in tiny apartments for ages. Moving with a baby will not be fun but moving is never fun so you might as well get over that, it's not worth feeling in a rush over
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Nov 5, 2021 02:05
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alnilam posted:Babies don't require much space, it's the toddler time and beyond that matters more imo Here let me give you my wife’s number. I’ll conference her sister in too! Yeah I hear you.
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Nov 5, 2021 02:10
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