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we need more supplllyyyyyyyghdb https://twitter.com/francesdonald/status/1455857664479617024?s=21
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Nov 3, 2021 12:36
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half cocaine posted:we need more supplllyyyyyyyghdb I'm not entirely clear on what 'residential investment' means, but I'm assuming this is saying that 10% of our GDP is stuck in residential real estate. Very cool and good,.
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Nov 3, 2021 13:35
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The median Canadian earns about $1.8M in real dollars through their life, about $1.2M during working age. So 66% of Canadians are homeowners but it takes 80% of a lifetime working income to buy one, and that's before things like eating or kids. The average Canadian spends about 105% of their income. I'd think we're heading into straight feudalism if landlords weren't so eager to accept negative cashflow. Maybe paying rent in corn and corvee labour will be the next big thing.
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Nov 3, 2021 13:38
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https://twitter.com/j_mcelroy/status/1455941282296041474?s=20 MISSION ACCOMPLISHED https://twitter.com/j_mcelroy/status/1455943097481719810?s=20
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Nov 4, 2021 01:17
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half cocaine posted:we need more supplllyyyyyyyghdb LMAO, ya’ll need to reduce your GDP by 3-5% to get housing back to historical normal. Am I reading that right?
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Nov 4, 2021 01:23
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MickeyFinn posted:LMAO, ya’ll need to reduce your GDP by 3-5% to get housing back to historical normal. Am I reading that right? SOMETHING SOMETHING INTEREST RATES gently caress MMT BITCOINZZZZZ.
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Nov 4, 2021 01:44
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MickeyFinn posted:LMAO, ya’ll need to reduce your GDP by 3-5% to get housing back to historical normal. Am I reading that right? If you had a way of laser targeting just the 3-5% of it that is housing, it probably remains status quo. The get back to historical norms without magic...
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Nov 4, 2021 06:50
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We can just double the rest of the components of our GDP. Easy peasy.
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Nov 4, 2021 10:39
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I don't think we've talked about the FHSA ittquote:In practical terms this means an employed 30-year-old earning $80,000 could get a loan from the Bank of Mom for $40,000, invest it in her FHSA and (because all contributions are deductible) receive a refund of about $12,000. She could dump that in her TFSA and hold growth ETFs. Ten years later the $52,000 has become $104,000 and she buys a house using it as a downpayment. So forty grand turns into a hundred thousand with no tax payable, plus there was an outright gift of $12,000 from taxpayers. If she has dumped the $12,000 into her RRSP the gift would be even larger, and the withdrawal still tax-free under the RSP Home Buyer’s Plan. This will certainly make real estate more affordable!
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Nov 4, 2021 19:25
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The key question is whether contributions count against existing RRSP room. I have a feeling that the Canadian government is stupid enough to guarantee that it doesn’t.
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Nov 5, 2021 07:13
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Hadn't even heard of this proposal. While perusing an article about it I came across this snippetbloomberg posted:How the FHSA is like a TFSA This annoys the poo poo out of me. Let's pretend that your tax rate is the same on deposit and withdrawal for your RRSP. If you re-invest the tax refund generated by the RRSP deduction (or change your withholding so it isn't taxed in the first place) then the end result of money that you get out of your RRSP is identical to what you would get out of your TFSA. Yes yes, there are some considerations for income-based clawbacks of OAS and so on, but the taxation on withdrawal is not some onerous thing to dislike about the RRSP. The 2 accounts are extraordinarily similar and the decision on which one to use first is some fairly fiddly guessing about tax rates on both ends, besides the general "TFSA first when income is low, RRSP first when income is high". The main benefit of both is the completely tax free investment growth, i.e. they are tax shelters. "TFSA withdrawals (contributions and gains), on the other hand, are never taxed." is a true but misleading statement to make. They aren't taxed because the money that you contributed was already taxed so there's less money in the first place that can go into the account to grow. If "Canadians do not like" that RRSP withdrawals are taxed then they should equally not like that the money put into a TFSA has already been taxed. There are considerations between the accounts but this tax thing is such a red herring. Every time I read about this 'battle' between the 2 accounts the descriptions are technically correct (most of the time) but almost always misleading. And yes, I suspect they may not count it against RRSP room. But they do have some options there.
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Nov 5, 2021 13:58
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poo poo like the FHSA and TFSA are exactly why the problem about housing affordability is really about extreme wealth inequality and all the  about creating housing supply don't address the fundamental problem that is Canadians are being brainwashed into thinking they're just one foot on the housing ladder away from being middle class. Life won't improve because you can now be approved for a massive mortgage at a teaser interest rate. Unless you're born rich or you have parents that became house-rich enough to endow you money to buy or borrow for a home, you will continue to live precariously. You will continue to be forced to make compromises on your quality of life because our governments are continuously biased to making policies that are beneficial to capital's share of income in Canada's economy. In other words, if you have to work for a living, you will continue to be hosed by people with lots of money lying around because it's easier for politicians to sell you policies that move those piles of money into investment vehicles that make bigger piles of money through capital appreciation.
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Nov 5, 2021 15:35
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I thought it was clarified that it does count against RRSP room
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Nov 6, 2021 04:37
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No mentions of the proposed 'cooling off period' yet https://www.timescolonist.com/bc-news/bc-to-introduce-cooling-off-period-legislation-for-real-estate-4725100 You'll never guess whose already come out against it! quote:Darlene Hyde, the chief executive officer of the B.C. Real Estate Association, said the decision to introduce legislation without consulting stakeholders first was "premature."
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Nov 6, 2021 07:47
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Lol that thinking only real estate agents are stakeholders.
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Nov 6, 2021 08:31
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leftist heap posted:I thought it was clarified that it does count against RRSP room I don’t believe that was ever clarified. I was under the impression that it was a dumb not very well thought out liberal policy to try and get elected.
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Nov 6, 2021 08:32
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Alctel posted:No mentions of the proposed 'cooling off period' yet Sounds weird. There are often chains of clauses where someone's home purchase is contingent on them selling their own home. So someone could just change their mind and torpedo multiple sales? I guess we need a lot more details first, maybe you can only back out really early in the process.
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Nov 6, 2021 15:41
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Alctel posted:No mentions of the proposed 'cooling off period' yet quote:Robinson admitted the measure would help protect buyers, but not necessarily help with housing affordability. Cool. "We are thinking about extending token protection to prospective members of the ownership class." Followed by "Who? Why is that renter talking to you instead of working to enter the housing market?"
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Nov 6, 2021 16:00
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I love this line: "While blind bidding is a long-standing practice used throughout Canada, we do want to explore whether or not there are ways to enhance transparency in the transaction process" Nothing more Canadian than blind biding! No way we can possibly just ban that, sorry. It's our heritage.
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Nov 6, 2021 16:58
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All the things that everybody needs to have to make an informed purchase, likes home inspection, just make those things mandatory and published before it can be listed on the MLS. Not gonna be getting teary eyed over blind bidding being banned, but it’s really just a band aid over actual systemic problems with how houses are advertised.
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Nov 6, 2021 17:43
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qhat posted:I don’t believe that was ever clarified. I was under the impression that it was a dumb not very well thought out liberal policy to try and get elected. That describes all liberal policy though
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Nov 6, 2021 22:04
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quote:We are heading into the most challenging period to own a home since the interest rate surge of the early 1980s I've got some great news for all you guys relying on your housing investment to create wealth. Canada's GDP is so dependent upon real estate that interest rate hikes are likely to cause a recession at a certain point so our Stewards of Middle Class Prosperity will likely do something pretty loving stupid to ensure that density is the only shining path towards housing affordability!
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Nov 6, 2021 23:16
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Is it somehow better to not own a house during all of that lol
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Nov 7, 2021 00:15
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Good news! Your rent will increase way more than any miniscule mortage rate increase so you can rest easy knowing you are a valuable contributor to your landlord's property empire.* *ponzi scheme
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Nov 7, 2021 00:52
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https://twitter.com/thestalwart/status/1457319894819672064?s=21 Prices in Vancouver and Toronto are justified because of restrictive land use policies u guys. More supply will bring down the cost of housing. See, Singapore has the s
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Nov 7, 2021 13:46
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qhat posted:All the things that everybody needs to have to make an informed purchase, likes home inspection, just make those things mandatory and published before it can be listed on the MLS. Not gonna be getting teary eyed over blind bidding being banned, but it’s really just a band aid over actual systemic problems with how houses are advertised. Is there anywhere that requires the homeowner to attach an inspection report to the listing? First is that it obviously needs to be regulated so that the homeowner does a legitimate inspection Second is that the home inspection racket will lose their poo poo since they can't sell the same inspection report to 8 different interested parties.
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Nov 7, 2021 14:16
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Fidelitious posted:Is there anywhere that requires the homeowner to attach an inspection report to the listing? I don’t know, and yeah I recognize that those are the two main roadblocks that prevent this from being a reality, but not for any good reasons. It’s just another example of how the RE industry has built themselves a model where they maximize profits at the significant expense to average people. Even banning blind bidding might not guarantee that the consumer isn’t exploited, since it becomes an open auction instead where they are encouraged to continually bid up the competition. qhat fucked around with this message at 15:28 on Nov 7, 2021 |
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Nov 7, 2021 15:26
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Interest rates don't really matter if you haven't yet bought a house. If you're looking to buy you'll make a bid such that your monthly payments fall in some range. Increasing the interest rate means bidders lower their bids until the monthly payment is in their price range and the lender gets a bigger chunk of the monthly payments. That's also why focusing on the price alone is kind of stupid. A big interest rate hike and the subsequent fall in prices isn't solving anything unless you've already got enough money lying around that you don't need a big mortgage to buy. How is this not a supply issue? The vacancy rates in the major cities are really low. Are those numbers wrong?
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Nov 7, 2021 15:58
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jettisonedstuff posted:Interest rates don't really matter if you haven't yet bought a house. If you're looking to buy you'll make a bid such that your monthly payments fall in some range. Increasing the interest rate means bidders lower their bids until the monthly payment is in their price range and the lender gets a bigger chunk of the monthly payments. There is a supply issue that needs addressing. But the government has done so much to provide cover from getting proper data that we are having to guess on a lot of things. Is it all Chinese money launderers buying and leaving homes empty? Is it people buying houses that they will air bnb? Is it large investment firms buying up everything at stupid prices to rent out? Is it all or none of the above or combination plus other things? I like a quote I read earlier in the thread, we don't have a shortage of supply as much as an oversupply of investors. Purgatory Glory fucked around with this message at 17:29 on Nov 7, 2021 |
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Nov 7, 2021 17:27
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Is supply defined as the ratio of residents to units in existence? Or is it defined as the number of units listed for sale at any instant in time? What are the implications of replacing one definition for the other in you thesis?
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Nov 7, 2021 17:52
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jettisonedstuff posted:Interest rates don't really matter if you haven't yet bought a house. If you're looking to buy you'll make a bid such that your monthly payments fall in some range. Increasing the interest rate means bidders lower their bids until the monthly payment is in their price range and the lender gets a bigger chunk of the monthly payments. Your post assumes that housing isn’t experiencing a speculative bubble. If it is, reducing house prices will hopefully wipe out a sizeable fraction of the speculators and, in so doing, reduce demand.
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Nov 7, 2021 23:34
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Purgatory Glory posted:There is a supply issue that needs addressing. But the government has done so much to provide cover from getting proper data that we are having to guess on a lot of things. Show me the empty housing and I'll believe you. The rental vacancy rates haven't touched 4% since before 2000. It is clearly happening because there isn't enough housing in the major cities. We've spent the last 60 years building low density suburbs and now there's no more room for any more within a 2 hour drive of any decent employment opportunities. It's an attractive investment now because everyone knows that for whatever insane reason, nobody in Canada wants any more housing built so they'll just be collecting a larger proportion of everyone's income as rents (unless you can afford to buy) while the housing shortage continues.
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Nov 8, 2021 01:31
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I once thought it'd be neat to take a camera to Kits beach at night at the exact same location at the exact same time every day for the entire summer and point it towards the condos downtown and take a photo. Then generate a heat map for all the condos that have literally never had their lights turned on during that time. It could, quite literally, shine a light on property vacancy.
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Nov 8, 2021 02:39
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jettisonedstuff posted:Show me the empty housing and I'll believe you. The rental vacancy rates haven't touched 4% since before 2000. There's also the fact the Ontario blew up last year, hell even Newfoundland was booming and other places in the world. So wtf is going on? Covid payments making people invest? Working from home shifting things? I want to know who's buying.
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Nov 8, 2021 03:04
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We bought a house recently because the landlord we had rented from for 10 years was going to sell and we would likely have been kicked out so the new landlord could double the rent. As it turned out, the new rent for another apartment of similar size was basically the same as the mortgage payments + taxes + maintenance if we paid the going price for a house, so that's what we did. People with slightly less money than us end up just having their rent increased a lot and are forced to pay or be homeless.
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Nov 8, 2021 14:13
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jettisonedstuff posted:We bought a house recently because the landlord we had rented from for 10 years was going to sell and we would likely have been kicked out so the new landlord could double the rent. As it turned out, the new rent for another apartment of similar size was basically the same as the mortgage payments + taxes + maintenance if we paid the going price for a house, so that's what we did. This is why it seems like the 'small investors' have to put up ludicrous rents just so they can hang on long enough to sell off to the next rube. We left Vancouver because our rent was slowly creeping towards $3000 for our 2-bedroom. This was fine for the owners of our unit because they had owned it almost since building construction and had probably reached the point of pure profit (minus maintenance and so forth). Any new buyer in that building was paying well over a million for a similar unit and even a 3k rent wouldn't have covered their expenses. So they certainly can't compete on price with long-time landlords, the only thing keeping these people alive is the endless year-over-year valuation increases of 10%+. It's just completely impossible to put the rent high enough to make any kind of return on that 'business'. In the end it's pure speculation fuelled by just enough money from exploiting lower-income people to not go bankrupt before you can re-sell. Providing shelter for people is not even part of the equation.
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Nov 8, 2021 14:48
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So rather than create laws and taxes that diminish speculation and land value the solution is to throw a fresh chord of dry lumber on that forest fire to burn up all that oxygen faster.
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Nov 8, 2021 15:20
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half cocaine posted:So rather than create laws and taxes that diminish speculation and land value the solution is to throw a fresh chord of dry lumber on that forest fire to burn up all that oxygen faster. Increasing housing supply is the only pareto-efficient approach that senior levels of government can take without actually doing anything truly helpful (see: a social housing regime), so they can shift all blame to the provinces and to local governments lmfao.
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Nov 8, 2021 17:22
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Hubbert posted:Increasing housing supply is the only pareto-efficient approach that senior levels of government can take without actually doing anything truly helpful (see: a social housing regime), so they can shift all blame to the provinces and to local governments lmfao. Well it's working. Look at this thread.
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Nov 8, 2021 18:14
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half cocaine posted:Well it's working. Look at this thread. I enjoy this thread because of its nuclear hot YIMBY takes. 
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Nov 8, 2021 20:43
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