Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
Which horse film is your favorite?
This poll is closed.
Black Beauty 2 1.06%
A Talking Pony!?! 4 2.13%
Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor 117 62.23%
War Horse 11 5.85%
Mr. Hands 54 28.72%
Total: 188 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
  • Post
  • Reply
VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

It sounds like the suggestion is researchers like them aren't being funded enough, not the researchers personally are lazy or something

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

dwarf74
Sep 2, 2012



Buglord

VitalSigns posted:

It sounds like the suggestion is researchers like them aren't being funded enough, not the researchers personally are lazy or something
What's a reason to believe more funding would create a substantially more sterilizing vaccine, though?

Again, I don't think there's been a particular lack of funding into covid vaccine research these past few years.

Charles 2 of Spain
Nov 7, 2017

I would simply spend all my technology points on COVID research until a cure is found.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

dwarf74 posted:

What's a reason to believe more funding would create a substantially more sterilizing vaccine, though?

Again, I don't think there's been a particular lack of funding into covid vaccine research these past few years.
I don't have an opinion on that because I am not a vaccine-ologist so I don't know what's possible, I was just pointing out that you were wildly misinterpreting what they were saying

Although if the government were to say "you know what instead of spending a gorillion dollars turning Yemeni kids into skeletons we'll kick 1% of it your way to research more possibilities of this new technology with an eye to improving the vaccine" I doubt the researchers would be like "what we already did that covid vaccine thing booooo-ring we're playing Assassin's Creed now!"

Our government's priorities are WILDLY out of whack

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
#ATMLIVESMATTER

Put this Nazi-lover on ignore immediately!

VitalSigns posted:

It sounds like the suggestion is researchers like them aren't being funded enough, not the researchers personally are lazy or something

Is there any evidence of underfunding or people working on vaccine research being denied grants or something? There's not a dial somewhere that you can turn up that increases vaccine research funding and virologists pop out of a tube somewhere and start working, to some degree this sort of stuff is going to be bottom up based on who has proposals for research.

Charles 2 of Spain
Nov 7, 2017

VitalSigns posted:

Although if the government were to say "you know what instead of spending a gorillion dollars turning Yemeni kids into skeletons we'll kick 1% of it your way to research more possibilities of this new technology with an eye to improving the vaccine" I doubt the researchers would be like "what we already did that covid vaccine thing booooo-ring we're playing Assassin's Creed now!"
That increased funding is going to inevitably siphon down into applications for the US military anyway.

Gio
Jun 20, 2005


dwarf74 posted:

You're asking for something that may not be medically possible. That's not a failure of will. Honestly, it's kind of lovely to suggest the folks who invented a whole new kind of vaccine once already this pandemic just aren't trying hard enough.
Obviously I shouldn’t have used the word “sterilizing.” How about “develop a covid vaccine that doesn’t rapidly decrease in efficacy after four months and do it with the same speed and urgency you had in 2020?”

Oh, sorry, that’s too much as well. If I was a science knower I’d know better!

Gio
Jun 20, 2005


Charles 2 of Spain posted:

I would simply spend all my technology points on COVID research until a cure is found.

I think you should go back to discouraging boosters as the US and Europe’s death rates skyrocket this winter.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
#ATMLIVESMATTER

Put this Nazi-lover on ignore immediately!

Gio posted:

Oh, sorry, that’s too much as well. If I was a science knower I’d know better!

I mean, that's kinda the thing with all of us, right? No one in this thread is remotely qualified to say if there's even a semi-realistic candidate for "a better approach for making vaccines". From our collective knowledge about vaccine research and development, we might as well say "why isn't the US government putting more funding towards building a time machine to take us back to 2019?"

nexous
Jan 14, 2003

I just want to be pure

Gio posted:

Obviously I shouldn’t have used the word “sterilizing.” How about “develop a covid vaccine that doesn’t rapidly decrease in efficacy after four months and do it with the same speed and urgency you had in 2020?”

Oh, sorry, that’s too much as well. If I was a science knower I’d know better!

Idk if I’m missing some facetiousness but I think that’s just a byproduct of our immune systems. Some diseases you get one and done like chickenpox, but you can get coronaviruses twice a year for life. I have no idea why that is,but id love to learn.

Gio
Jun 20, 2005


enki42 posted:

I mean, that's kinda the thing with all of us, right? No one in this thread is remotely qualified to say if there's even a semi-realistic candidate for "a better approach for making vaccines". From our collective knowledge about vaccine research and development, we might as well say "why isn't the US government putting more funding towards building a time machine to take us back to 2019?"
I’m not even saying anything specific bc I’m not a loving scientist! I’m just an elementary school teacher that doesn’t want to get Covid.

Like I said, I guess this is the best we can do. Nothing better is possible.

Christ.

also time travel and covid vaccines? a valid comparison

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Gio posted:

Like I said, I guess this is the best we can do. Nothing better is possible.


Probably, yeah. I would suggest trying to come to terms with it, it will help your mental health immensely. This is the new normal for the next who knows how many years. It'll get better eventually, life will go on, we are adaptable creatures.

e: poo poo, sorry, I did not mean that as a specific intentional jab at you in particular. I should have said "it will help one's mental health immensely" or "it has helped my own mental health immensely".

How are u fucked around with this message at 03:36 on Nov 16, 2021

Gio
Jun 20, 2005


How are u posted:

Probably, yeah. I would suggest trying to come to terms with it, it will help your mental health immensely. This is the new normal for the next who knows how many years. It'll get better eventually, life will go on, we are adaptable creatures.

Do not in any way talk about my loving mental health you stupid loving ghoul. I’m sick of this thread allowing dipshits concern-troll about others mental health. I’m fine aside from being incredibly loving pissed right now, and having at least a slight desire to not be stalked by the plague and then being told “well ACKSHUALLY ur gonna have to learn to eat poo poo and love it, read this *lancet article*”

gently caress off

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

brugroffil
Nov 30, 2015


Embrace The Great Barrington Declaration

Epicurius
Apr 10, 2010
College Slice

Gio posted:

Obviously I shouldn’t have used the word “sterilizing.” How about “develop a covid vaccine that doesn’t rapidly decrease in efficacy after four months and do it with the same speed and urgency you had in 2020?”

Oh, sorry, that’s too much as well. If I was a science knower I’d know better!

I mean, vaccine development and research on Covid hasn't stopped. GSK and SK bioscience, for instance, are in phase 3 trials in Britain and South Korea of an adjuvanted vaccine that they're hoping will be more effective than the Astrazenica one and which they hope to have ready at the beginning of 2022. GSK is also working with CureVac to develop a new mRNA vaccine that they hope will be equally effective against multiple variants. Pfizer is doing an in depth study of various COVID variants. Pfizer also came out with oral medication that preliminary studies show reduces the risk of hospitalization and death by about 87% in unvaccinated people who come down with Covid, and Merck has just gotten a pill that does something similar approved in the UK probably will be approved in the US by the end of the month, and has basically licensed the right to produce it to the Medicines Patent Pool, which should allow it to be produced and distributed in low and middle income countries.

So research and development is happening. You just might not be hearing about it.

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!

enki42 posted:

I mean, that's kinda the thing with all of us, right? No one in this thread is remotely qualified to say if there's even a semi-realistic candidate for "a better approach for making vaccines". From our collective knowledge about vaccine research and development, we might as well say "why isn't the US government putting more funding towards building a time machine to take us back to 2019?"

A more relevant comparison might be "why don't we have an effective vaccine for HIV yet?"

Because it's really loving hard in a technical sense. We've thrown everything at it and haven't had success yet.

Pretty much every vaccine technology was used to develop COVID vaccines, no one had much of a clue how well any of them would work. Turns out the mRNA and vectored vaccines are pretty great at preventing severe disease while the old tried-and-true inactivated vaccines aren't very good but we didn't know that until we got to Phase 3 trials.

That doesn't mean we won't develop better vaccines, there is certainly a ton of research funding being poured into it. I wonder how the protein subunit trials are doing, actually. Point is, the scientific community hasn't given up. It's important to keep in mind that there are a relatively fixed number of scientists who can do vaccine development--it takes 4-5 years to train more PhDs. You can pour a gorillion dollars into research but money is not such a limiting factor in this case -- it's expert labor and time.

I get that Gio is frustrated with efficacy of the current vaccines and I share some of that as a fellow educator and someone at elevated risk of severe COVID. I don't know that there's any good target for that frustration, though. We didn't find a silver bullet, it might not exist, research is ongoing but it takes more than just money. It takes time.

Charles 2 of Spain
Nov 7, 2017

The closest silver bullet is to get literally everyone vaccinated. Not going to happen for years though.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

Mr Luxury Yacht posted:

IIRC the mRNA vaccines did have a fairly high level of sterilizing immunity against the original COVID strain and Alpha, just less so against Delta (although it does still offer protection against Delta infection, just less than prior variants).

If you have a study claiming more than sixty percent reduction in transmission versus unvaccinated persons, I’d like to see it.

dwarf74 posted:

Like which ones? There is no vaccine I know of that's perfectly sterilizing - measles isn't, smallpox wasn't, etc.

Oral polio vaccine came close.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

How are u posted:

Probably, yeah. I would suggest trying to come to terms with it, it will help your mental health immensely.

I went to a (small, outdoor) wedding yesterday and then spent the evening hanging out with a dozen friends from said wedding that I haven't seen since before Melbourne's months-long lockdown and it was immeasurably good for my mental health. I don't think I previously grasped how miserable most of this year had made me.

Charles 2 of Spain
Nov 7, 2017

freebooter posted:

I went to a (small, outdoor) wedding yesterday and then spent the evening hanging out with a dozen friends from said wedding that I haven't seen since before Melbourne's months-long lockdown and it was immeasurably good for my mental health. I don't think I previously grasped how miserable most of this year had made me.
Congrats.

Foxfire_
Nov 8, 2010

fartman posted:

I'd be really curious to see if countries like the Netherlands et al have infection numbers broken down by age with this new wave. In Quebec, 91% of 12+ has their first dose (79.7% total pop), and so roughly 43% of new cases come from unvaccinated under 12s.
https://coronadashboard.government.nl/ is in english and has a breakdowns by lots of different groupings

is new case rate by age groups

As far as vaccine development goes, scaling production to flu-shot type scale is probably a safer bet than hoping for radical new science making something that lasts longer (assuming boosted current ones don't, which isn't known yet; lots of other existing vaccines do 3+ doses at bigish intervals for long-lasting protection). The mRNA vaccines are not particularly expensive (~$20/dose), they're just supply-constrained. Cost is about the same as any other typical vaccine and doing yearly or 6 month boosters indefinitely wouldn't be that hard.

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

nexous posted:

Idk if I’m missing some facetiousness but I think that’s just a byproduct of our immune systems. Some diseases you get one and done like chickenpox, but you can get coronaviruses twice a year for life. I have no idea why that is,but id love to learn.

Chickenpox also has a complex profile of waning immunity and reinfection odds, there just isn’t so much reading the details blow by blow so it seems more simple and straightforward

Stickman
Feb 1, 2004

Foxfire_ posted:

https://coronadashboard.government.nl/ is in english and has a breakdowns by lots of different groupings

is new case rate by age groups

As far as vaccine development goes, scaling production to flu-shot type scale is probably a safer bet than hoping for radical new science making something that lasts longer (assuming boosted current ones don't, which isn't known yet; lots of other existing vaccines do 3+ doses at bigish intervals for long-lasting protection). The mRNA vaccines are not particularly expensive (~$20/dose), they're just supply-constrained. Cost is about the same as any other typical vaccine and doing yearly or 6 month boosters indefinitely wouldn't be that hard.

It's also entirely possible that inactivated virus / protein subunit vaccines might be be sufficient for periodic boosters given high enough uptake (ie mandates)

E: Woof, the kiddos...

Weasling Weasel
Oct 20, 2010
No quite sterilisation, but wouldn't a 3rd booster be enough if highly vaccinated now, to get near that magical Herd immunity threshold?

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1460313047529103365

MuscaDomestica
Apr 27, 2017

Platystemon posted:

Oral polio vaccine came close.

Oral Polio vaccine is weird. It has the secondary effect of releasing an attenuated strain of the virus that does not cause paralysis in the population. There is a chance that the virus reverts to become dangerous again. It doesn't effect the vaccinated but you just caused an outbreak where there wasn't one before.

The HPV vaccine seems to be sterilizing, the technology used for it does not have the same effect in Covid.

no lube so what
Apr 11, 2021

Weasling Weasel posted:

No quite sterilisation, but wouldn't a 3rd booster be enough if highly vaccinated now, to get near that magical Herd immunity threshold?

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1460313047529103365

What does herd immunity threshold mean?

Rosalind
Apr 30, 2013

When we hit our lowest point, we are open to the greatest change.

no lube so what posted:

What does herd immunity threshold mean?

There is a theoretical threshold, when the population is simplified and treated as homogenous, where enough people have sufficient immunity to COVID through vaccination and previous infection that the disease can't spread and the pandemic ends, even if some people still aren't vaccinated.

Due to Delta, vaccine hesitancy, and waning protection over time, this threshold is probably quite high. It's also an oversimplification of a more complex problem since typically to model this threshold epidemiologists have to make a lot of assumptions and simplifications since we can't model real world conditions with perfect accuracy.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Fritz the Horse posted:



I get that Gio is frustrated with efficacy of the current vaccines and I share some of that as a fellow educator and someone at elevated risk of severe COVID. I don't know that there's any good target for that frustration, though. We didn't find a silver bullet, it might not exist, research is ongoing but it takes more than just money. It takes time.

Things like grant priorities matter a lot here (or for that matter amount), but I don't know enough to say that they're actually in any way suboptimal.
(More might mean more academic research, though).

no lube so what
Apr 11, 2021

Rosalind posted:

There is a theoretical threshold, when the population is simplified and treated as homogenous, where enough people have sufficient immunity to COVID through vaccination and previous infection that the disease can't spread and the pandemic ends, even if some people still aren't vaccinated.

Due to Delta, vaccine hesitancy, and waning protection over time, this threshold is probably quite high. It's also an oversimplification of a more complex problem since typically to model this threshold epidemiologists have to make a lot of assumptions and simplifications since we can't model real world conditions with perfect accuracy.

Has the theory even been observed in the real world with modern air travel?

Is that sort of theoretical model even possible with air travel?

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

no lube so what posted:

Has the theory even been observed in the real world with modern air travel?

Is that sort of theoretical model even possible with air travel?

It's not like a magic shield you aquire. It's just the idea that if you walked down the street of new york right now naked from any vaccinations you are unlikely to ever get polio because the spread of polio due to vaccines is so low that even with no immunity you just simply will not encounter it.

It's also why the concept of diseases functioning in "outbreaks" is a thing instead of a disease simply growing exponentially forever until everyone has it 24/7 forever. Disease surges "burn out" by using all hosts until exponential growth can not continue.

Rosalind
Apr 30, 2013

When we hit our lowest point, we are open to the greatest change.

no lube so what posted:

Has the theory even been observed in the real world with modern air travel?

Is that sort of theoretical model even possible with air travel?

Yes. Though again it's more complicated than what I've explained so far--I'm giving the epi 1 overview here--there are many diseases to which large populations of humans have herd immunity against: measles, mumps, rubella, pertusis, diptheria, and rotavirus come to my mind immediately in the developed world.

And since you appear to be asking this as some sort of bad faith gotcha, I will note that herd immunity does not mean there won't be isolated outbreaks (particularly in unvaccinated communities), but that isolated outbreaks probably won't spread to the wider general population.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Rosalind posted:


And since you appear to be asking this as some sort of bad faith gotcha, I will note that herd immunity does not mean there won't be isolated outbreaks (particularly in unvaccinated communities), but that isolated outbreaks probably won't spread to the wider general population.

Measles is a good example of this. There's been several measles outbreaks in the last five years in the US in unvaccinated communities in the US, but it didn't spread widely thanks to high vaccination rates elsewhere.

As a side note, loving lol at this bit on the Wikipedia page for measles outbreaks in the US:


Wikipedia posted:

In January 2019, Facebook announced that it will be banning posts promoting anti-vaccination propaganda, and the website will no longer be suggesting anti-vaccination pages or groups for users to join

Wow you sure followed through on that one Zuck :dumbbravo:

Mr Luxury Yacht fucked around with this message at 16:23 on Nov 16, 2021

no lube so what
Apr 11, 2021

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

It's not like a magic shield you aquire. It's just the idea that if you walked down the street of new york right now naked from any vaccinations you are unlikely to ever get polio because the spread of polio due to vaccines is so low that even with no immunity you just simply will not encounter it.

It's also why the concept of diseases functioning in "outbreaks" is a thing instead of a disease simply growing exponentially forever until everyone has it 24/7 forever. Disease surges "burn out" by using all hosts until exponential growth can not continue.


If people can keep getting reinfected within months and spread it, will it ever burn out? Or just wack o mole every immunity cycle? How does the immunity cycle work into herd immunity thresholds?

no lube so what
Apr 11, 2021

Rosalind posted:

Yes. Though again it's more complicated than what I've explained so far--I'm giving the epi 1 overview here--there are many diseases to which large populations of humans have herd immunity against: measles, mumps, rubella, pertusis, diptheria, and rotavirus come to my mind immediately in the developed world.

And since you appear to be asking this as some sort of bad faith gotcha, I will note that herd immunity does not mean there won't be isolated outbreaks (particularly in unvaccinated communities), but that isolated outbreaks probably won't spread to the wider general population.

Has that worked with covid? King county? Israel? Iceland?

I am all for eradicating the disease, but has that approach worked with covid?

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


It's entirely possible high enough vaccination rates just haven't been reached yet. For many other diseases it's at a vaccination rate between 80-90% of the total population.

MrUnderbridge
Jun 25, 2011

People will still get covid, but it will get blocked from spreading widely with herd immunity. A nice visual simulation is https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/18/967462483/how-herd-immunity-works-and-what-stands-in-its-way.

With enough people vaccinated and unlikely to catch and pass on infections, any outbreaks will be contained. Will it stop 100% of infections? Nope, but it will limit how far they can spread and to how many.

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



Gio posted:

I’m not even saying anything specific bc I’m not a loving scientist! I’m just an elementary school teacher that doesn’t want to get Covid.

Like I said, I guess this is the best we can do. Nothing better is possible.

Christ.

also time travel and covid vaccines? a valid comparison

Unfortunately even the commies dont have a fully sterilizing vaccine

Jesus god if only people would just wear masks without it triggering their oppositional defiance disorder and protagonist syndrome it wouldnt even matter

Rosalind
Apr 30, 2013

When we hit our lowest point, we are open to the greatest change.

no lube so what posted:

Has that worked with covid? King county? Israel? Iceland?

I am all for eradicating the disease, but has that approach worked with covid?

Just because something hasn't worked yet doesn't mean it's never going to work. We were actually doing quite well until Delta hit--which emerged in the nearly completely unvaccinated population of India. Now we're in a very different situation where the majority of the world population is at least partially vaccinated.

I think there's a fair chance of achieving some degree of herd immunity and arguably some communities already probably have through high vaccination rates. That is absolutely not the same thing as disease eradication, however, which has only been achieved in exceptional circumstances.

no lube so what
Apr 11, 2021

Mr Luxury Yacht posted:

It's entirely possible high enough vaccination rates just haven't been reached yet. For many other diseases it's at a vaccination rate between 80-90% of the total population.

Iceland is in that lower bound and still getting smacked. they are on an island. But all the numbers of % vac are skewed since they don’t include kids, so it’s prob not truly in that range.

Is it possible with an aerosol that’s mutated to be even more hosed up (vs tamer) and a world population with air travel to link mixed vax/nonvax/waning vax to mutate into?

Seems like spherical cows.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

no lube so what posted:


Is it possible with an aerosol that’s mutated to be even more hosed up (vs tamer) and a world population with air travel to link mixed vax/nonvax/waning vax to mutate into?


That has been possible with every single disease that has ever existed

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply