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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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Measles was eradicated in the US for a time before anti-vax idiocy really took hold in the early 2000s and that's a hilariously virulent airborne disease (it has like twice the R0 of even Delta COVID) with a herd immunity threshold of something like 93%-95% vaccinated. Eradication didn't mean cases didn't occur, thanks to air travel some cases were imported. It's just thanks to herd immunity it fizzled out and couldn't spread in the wider population.
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Nov 16, 2021 17:03
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otoh we have cold and flu season every year. maybe there is no magic "herd immunity" for SARS-CoV2 that means it won't spread in big outbreaks regularly.
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Nov 16, 2021 17:23
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I don't think the flu is necessarily comparable given the insane number of variants. IIRC influenza A alone has something crazy like 144 different possible variants. Like the flu shot every year is generally "Take an educated guess of which four strains are most likely to pop up and shove them in a vaccine. Same for the common cold. It's not one virus causing it, it's 200.
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Nov 16, 2021 17:32
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:I don't think the flu is necessarily comparable given the insane number of variants. IIRC influenza A alone has something crazy like 144 different possible variants. I guess we'll see how long it takes to get to that many Covid variants since there's a sizable number of people who won't get vaxxed and are determined to be a self-selecting petri dish of people who love the virus and want to kiss it on the lips.
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Nov 16, 2021 17:34
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The variant situations seems to have been pretty stable since Delta popped up, maybe this is its final form?
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Nov 16, 2021 17:37
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aphid_licker posted:The variant situations seems to have been pretty stable since Delta popped up, maybe this is its final form? I mean that would be nice, but at least in the US, there's a sizable chunk of the population that's determined to gently caress around and find out. e: Oh and in the meantime, they're doing their best to collapse the already ailing and unsustainable health care system. e2: What's Ligma? This is the first I've heard of it. 
Professor Beetus fucked around with this message at 17:51 on Nov 16, 2021 |
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Nov 16, 2021 17:46
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I'm skeptical that we've seen the end of variants--there are other variant lineages that public health agencies are monitoring and the virus seems to be capable of mutating fairly readily. Also there's a bit of a delay between identification and the variant becoming predominant or even prevalent enough to warrant attention. Delta was first detected in India in October 2020 so that's more than a 6 month lag time between it emerging and it becoming a variant of concern. The Ligma variant that ravages us in Spring 2022 might be spreading right now under our noses!
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Nov 16, 2021 17:47
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brugroffil posted:otoh we have cold and flu season every year. maybe there is no magic "herd immunity" for SARS-CoV2 that means it won't spread in big outbreaks regularly. Over and over we reach broad immunity to various flus, that lasts many years. It just happens that we named a lot of different interrelated viruses "the flu" and count all of them as the same disease. Even though like, swine flu is a different entire species than bird flu, and influenza A is a totally different GENUS of virus than influenza D. By the end of the flu season most flus are pretty burnt out and fade away, and stay faded away for often quite some time, it just happens there 198 known species of flu so no matter how immune you get to H2H2, you just get H1N1 the next year and it's entirely equivalent from your perspective. But is millions of years of evolution separated viruses. Like flu is a extremely rapidly mutating virus, but it's not even the case you typically are getting the same species of flu over and over, Many virus types hit a point where they can not spread and disappear for decades at a time, or never become a major outbreak ever again.
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Nov 16, 2021 17:53
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no lube so what posted:Has that worked with covid? King county? Israel? Iceland? C H I N A
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Nov 16, 2021 18:01
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Professor Beetus posted:I guess we'll see how long it takes to get to that many Covid variants since there's a sizable number of people who won't get vaxxed and are determined to be a self-selecting petri dish of people who love the virus and want to kiss it on the lips. Millions of years. Different flus are related the way like, covid is related to Feline infectious peritonitis, both things are coronavirus, all flus are all the different Orthomyxoviridae. But all covid-19 is covid-19. The variants of covid-19 are all just covid-19. When you get a flu then get a flu again you might be getting the product of millions of years of evolution in different hosts, recombined with each other over centuries. Not just a few point mutations. (just happens orthomyxoviridae kinda just all do more or less the same thing so it's just a nerd fact you are getting wildly different diseases each time with the exact same symptoms)
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Nov 16, 2021 18:07
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mod sassinator posted:C H I N A Unsustainable, and they still have Delta. Zero Covid is a failure in China, tho they have kept the spread low. They will give in and live with covid as well, once they get their population vaccinated.
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Nov 16, 2021 18:07
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How are u posted:Unsustainable, and they still have Delta. Zero Covid is a failure in China, tho they have kept the spread low. They will give in and live with covid as well, once they get their population vaccinated. You've been saying that in this thread for nearly two years now. I have to ask--when? When does it happen? Can you spitball at a high level when or how this happens? (China is more vaccinated than the US right now. Their children have more boosters than all the adults in the US--50 million so far.)
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Nov 16, 2021 18:10
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aphid_licker posted:The variant situations seems to have been pretty stable since Delta popped up, maybe this is its final form? Aren't new variants essentially always popping up? Usually the media just gloms on to one.
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Nov 16, 2021 18:11
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brugroffil posted:otoh we have cold and flu season every year. maybe there is no magic "herd immunity" for SARS-CoV2 that means it won't spread in big outbreaks regularly. Flu vaccination rates in most western countries are 30% *at best* and there's never been a cold vaccine. However, individual variants of both *do* burn out thanks to herd immunity.
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Nov 16, 2021 18:15
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There's been a bunch of new variants since delta but to my knowledge they've either just died out unceremoniously or just been unable to out compete delta.
Mr Luxury Yacht fucked around with this message at 18:18 on Nov 16, 2021 |
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Nov 16, 2021 18:15
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Yeah there have been a few VoC over the last few months but they just get crushed by delta because it spreads 100x faster than them
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Nov 16, 2021 18:20
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mod sassinator posted:You've been saying that in this thread for nearly two years now. I have to ask--when? When does it happen? Can you spitball at a high level when or how this happens? I don't know when, I do know it is inevitable. They cannot and will not continue with those policies forever. Even a totalitarian state cannot do it forever.
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Nov 16, 2021 18:20
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no lube so what posted:Iceland is in that lower bound and still getting smacked. they are on an island. But all the numbers of % vac are skewed since they don’t include kids, so it’s prob not truly in that range. Iceland is 77% vaccinated according to https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html Super high for sure, but not anywhere near high enough to say conclusively that herd immunity is a pipe dream. The most vaccinated country on earth now is the U.A.E. at 90%, followed by Portugal at 83%. The UAE certainly appears to have a pretty good recent trajectory, although it's way too soon to conclude they have herd immunity. Portugal is also quite low but cases are rising since all restrictions were dropped. Whether they go full Denmark or Netherlands is an open question right now. Also none of that is taking into account boosters. If COVID vaccination ends up being a 3 dose regimen that has some longevity (or even a 2 dose, but those 2 doses need to be 6 months apart), then even the most vaccinated countries have something like 30% vaccination right now.
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Nov 16, 2021 18:33
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mod sassinator posted:C H I N A China's lack of cases aren't explained by herd immunity, or there'd be more countries that have herd immunity (and clearly don't). China has a similar fully vaccinated population to Canada, for instance, and we sure as hell don't have herd immunity.
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Nov 16, 2021 18:38
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How are u posted:I don't know when, I do know it is inevitable. They cannot and will not continue with those policies forever. Even a totalitarian state cannot do it forever. Arent the policies so insanely popular that even the Economist and WSJ cant pretend otherwise? I mean why wouldn't they be? Aside from a few snap lockdowns the countries that actually treated it seriously have been back to normal since last summer, well the ones without a Murdoch owned press at least
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Nov 16, 2021 18:38
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Epic High Five posted:Arent the policies so insanely popular that even the Economist and WSJ cant pretend otherwise? I mean why wouldn't they be? Aside from a few snap lockdowns the countries that actually treated it seriously have been back to normal since last summer, well the ones without a Murdoch owned press at least I don't know how popular they are, but the sheer fact that the entire rest of the world will be living with endemic covid seems to guarantee that China won't be able to maintain their policies forever. At a certain point it will become ridiculous. The world will move on and China will move with it.
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Nov 16, 2021 18:42
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:That has been possible with every single disease that has ever existed COvid is batting 1.000. Why assume that it’s equal odds to get tamer when the dominant strain has progressively gotten more hosed up? It has evolved to a more hosed up thing in less than what? 6 months? Everything is going up Petri dish effect higher than ever Waning of immunity w/ low booster take up Long term T cells get wrecked by getting covid Seems like bad odds for herd immunity
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Nov 16, 2021 18:51
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:I don't think the flu is necessarily comparable given the insane number of variants. IIRC influenza A alone has something crazy like 144 different possible variants. There was some study last year that found the immunity "memory" in our bone marrow (b-cell I think but it's been a bit) for influenza is essentially non-existent after a year. It's not just about mutation/strains/variants.
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Nov 16, 2021 18:57
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enki42 posted:Iceland is 77% vaccinated according to https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html Operative word being may, as it may not be enough even then, but it's a possibility that boosting will be enough to start to kill the case numbers.
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Nov 16, 2021 19:09
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How are u posted:I don't know how popular they are, but the sheer fact that the entire rest of the world will be living with endemic covid seems to guarantee that China won't be able to maintain their policies forever. At a certain point it will become ridiculous. The world will move on and China will move with it. What is moving on to you? Acting like the rest of the world in regards to covid measures? Seems like they are moving on while the rest of the world refuses to. They have certainly enjoyed significantly better economic output and a much lower death rate compared to other first world countries since this began.
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Nov 16, 2021 19:42
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no lube so what posted:COvid is batting 1.000. This is word salad. Delta is contagious but isn't more deadly. Covid still isn't Captain Trips. You can take Covid seriously without being the guy holding the apocalypse sign on the street corner.
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Nov 16, 2021 19:44
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pigz posted:What is moving on to you? Acting like the rest of the world in regards to covid measures? Seems like they are moving on while the rest of the world refuses to. They have certainly enjoyed significantly better economic output and a much lower death rate compared to other first world countries since this began. I don't think a mandatory weeks-long quarantine to enter the nation is "moving on", particularly. Look, China is the only nation, to my knowledge, that is still officially attempting a zero covid policy and still enforcing mass mandatory lockdowns etc etc. Every other nation has decided to go in the direction of living with the virus. Maybe China will still be adhering to their zero covid policy in 5 years. Maybe they still will be in 10 years. But I think that's incredibly unlikely. Do you think that in 10 years China will still be requiring a weeks-long quarantine to enter the nation?
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Nov 16, 2021 19:48
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If China can't maintain zero-COVID because the rest of the world very stupidly embraced "learn to live with the virus," that's a mark against the rest of the world, not China.
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Nov 16, 2021 19:56
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I don't see why it wouldn't be sustainable it's not like China has a tourism based economy I mean obviously they profit from tourism but it's not like wrecking them to curtail it like say Cuba or Costa Rica or something. It's probably not a large enough fraction of their GNP to be worth a million deaths and tens of millions of hospitalizations or whatever the China equivalent to the US's delta wave would be so even from a purely amoral economic perspective one sector doesn't justify kidney-punching all the others. They don't have a system like we have where a few greedy billionaires can decide to make a quick buck bringing delta or ligma in from all over the world and externalize the costs onto everyone else in the form of illness, death, or the things Americans care about like lost productivity and overburdened healthcare resources and lower average rates of profit So why wouldn't they do the quarantine as long as delta might do to their economy what it's done to ours? VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 20:02 on Nov 16, 2021 |
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Nov 16, 2021 19:59
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How are u posted:Do you think that in 10 years China will still be requiring a weeks-long quarantine to enter the nation? Why wouldn't they? Their economy has grown more than any other nation in the world over the last couple years. Their people are happy and believe in their leaders' decisions more than any other country. They have suffered and continue to suffer 150x less casualties than comparable countries like the US. Why would they stop that? It's time to admit just because you personally don't like it, China's policy is working and is loved by its people. Are you afraid the US might see the same from similar policies?
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Nov 16, 2021 19:59
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brugroffil posted:If China can't maintain zero-COVID because the rest of the world very stupidly embraced "learn to live with the virus," that's a mark against the rest of the world, not China. I think it just is what it is. I don't think there's really much blame to prescribe, except personally on the Trump Admin for wholly loving-up the initial stages of the pandemic, and perhaps on China for wholly failing to take seriously the initial pandemic in Wuhan, at a time when their strict zero covid measures could have indeed saved the whole world.  But I'm not beating some anti-China drum. I just think its pretty clear that the entire world will be living with this thing for the next 5, 10, 15, 20 years and so on.
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Nov 16, 2021 19:59
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How are u posted:I think it just is what it is. I don't think there's really much blame to prescribe, except personally on the Trump Admin for wholly loving-up the initial stages of the pandemic, and perhaps on China for wholly failing to take seriously the initial pandemic in Wuhan, at a time when their strict zero covid measures could have indeed saved the whole world. If the average of ~900 deaths a day continue for the next 40 days left in the year, Joe Biden will have lost as many people to COVID-19 as Trump did in his first year. Over 400k deaths on Joe's hands alone, despite having an incredible vaccine. How is Joe Biden not partly at fault for that grim milestone?
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Nov 16, 2021 20:02
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mod sassinator posted:If the average of ~900 deaths a day continue for the next 40 days left in the year, Joe Biden will have lost as many people to COVID-19 as Trump did in his first year. Over 400k deaths on Joe's hands alone, despite having an incredible vaccine. Sorry what? I'd say those deaths are on the hands of the people who refused to take the free, widely available, miracle vaccine that would have saved 90% of their lives. They hosed around and found out. e: I didn't say word about Joe Biden, why do you even bring him up? Seems like he's handling the pandemic about as well as anybody else right now. It's pretty much out of the hands of policy makers and in the hands of the anti-vaxxers, at this point. How are u fucked around with this message at 20:07 on Nov 16, 2021 |
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Nov 16, 2021 20:03
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How are u posted:But I'm not beating some anti-China drum. Objectively false, in the very same post some 20 words above you say: How are u posted:I don't think there's really much blame to prescribe, except ...perhaps on China for wholly failing to take seriously the initial pandemic in Wuhan, at a time when their strict zero covid measures could have indeed saved the whole world. Please explain to the thread how China somehow not taking COVID seriously 24 months ago has now lead to the United States losing nearly one million lives to the virus over the course of those 24 months. I really want to understand what critical link has been missed and ignored these 730 days which would have connected China's failure to act on a million American graves.
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Nov 16, 2021 20:07
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Trump told people to stay home if they are sick, seems like the blame falls squarely on the people who refused, not on the government with the power and responsibility to make and enforce policy and marshal the resources of the country to provide for the general welfare
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Nov 16, 2021 20:07
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Professor Beetus posted:This is word salad. Delta is contagious but isn't more deadly. Covid still isn't Captain Trips. You can take Covid seriously without being the guy holding the apocalypse sign on the street corner. Professor Beetus posted:This is word salad. Delta is contagious but isn't more deadly. Covid still isn't Captain Trips. You can take Covid seriously without being the guy holding the apocalypse sign on the street corner. Being pragmatic is not doom. Has covid evolved more deadly or less deadly? Has breakthrough cases gone up or down? Is the booster as popular as the second shot? Is the second shot as popular than the first shot? If Iceland/Israel can’t get herd immunity at their rates, what rates are needed? Is that possible in the world we live in? How is any of that doom vs being pragmatic on the nature of the disease and how humans have reacted to covid over the last two years. How is herd immunity going to happen? If that’s the salvation, how? Word salad is saying “herd immunity” when 1/3 of the population won’t take a vaccine. maybe 1/3 will do a yearly inoculation. Wishing in one hand and making GBS threads in the other.
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Nov 16, 2021 20:07
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How are u posted:Sorry what? I'd say those deaths are on the hands of the people who refused to take the free, widely available, miracle vaccine that would have saved 90% of their lives. They hosed around and found out. You are saying President Trump's handling of the virus is at fault. There has been another president who has been handling the virus just as long as Trump and suffering as many casualties. How is that not related?
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Nov 16, 2021 20:08
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mod sassinator posted:Please explain to the thread how China somehow not taking COVID seriously 24 months ago has now lead to the United States losing nearly one million lives to the virus over the course of those 24 months. I really want to understand what critical link has been missed and ignored these 730 days which would have connected China's failure to act on a million American graves. China has tons of experience with novel airborne viruses over many decades. If the CCP had accepted that there was a novel outbreak in Wuhan in 2019 instead of trying to cover it up and used their totalitarian powers to quash it with strict quarantines then perhaps it never would have left China in the first place, and the entire world would be better off. So it goes!
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Nov 16, 2021 20:09
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How are u posted:China has tons of experience with novel airborne viruses over many decades. If the CCP had accepted that there was a novel outbreak in Wuhan in 2019 instead of trying to cover it up and used their totalitarian powers to quash it with strict quarantines then perhaps it never would have left China in the first place, and the entire world would be better off. I don't understand, can you clarify? It appears you are inventing a fictional scenario where China decided to not lock down and accept a million deaths. I will ask again, how has China's actions 24 months ago lead to the deaths of nearly one million Americans now? Can you answer this question? We are in Debate and Discussion forum remember, this is not a place to describe fiction about what you wish had happened (like the deaths of millions of Chinese apparently?).
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Nov 16, 2021 20:11
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How are u posted:I don't think a mandatory weeks-long quarantine to enter the nation is "moving on", particularly. You say 'living with the virus', but China is 'living with it' they have just decided that does not include significant spread and associated mass death of the most vulnerable. That's why they are 'moving on', it's the US and other first world countries which are wanting a 'return to (2019) normal' and believe it acceptable to sacrifice millions of their own citizens despite, by your own argument, all countries will share the same covid endgame. I'm not sure what 5 years or 10 years will bring, hopefully vaccines, treatments and a great reckoning in first world countries on NPIs will beat down covid sooner rather than later. But regardless, no matter how long that takes, even if China gives up on zero covid tomorrow, they will be free to reap the benefits by then opening up their country having avoiding a more than significant portion of negative effects than countries who took a different approach. Yet why would they give up zero covid when that seems to be working exceedingly well.
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Nov 16, 2021 20:12
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