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skipdogg
Nov 29, 2004
Resident SRT-4 Expert

Methanar posted:

Will the market be better in 6 months?

My take: absolutely not.

Maybe 2023 unless interest rates go up a lot. Could be 2024 if money stays cheap.

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Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin
Counterpoint: They can build more cars? :confuoot:

IOwnCalculus
Apr 2, 2003





They're going to have to build a lot more cars to deal with the pent-up demand on the new side. Best case scenario is the new car side is "more normal" in six months, but I would expect closer to a year, and that will help the used market slightly by limiting how many used cars will actually be sold at/above new prices just because of availability.

But the used car market won't be truly back to normal until the new car market has been normal for at least two years.

The only thing that shortens those timetables is if we end up in an economy where the demand dries up more than enough to offset the supply constraints.

wesleywillis
Dec 30, 2016

SUCK A MALE CAMEL'S DICK WITH MIRACLE WHIP!!
Paid 100 bucks, or 150 bucks to a car buying service, got my '21 Tacoma for about 1500 less than MSRP. Had to wait about 3 1/2 months for it to show up, but I wasn't in a hurry.

Around my area it was "car loses 30-40% of its value the moment you drive it off the lot". I found that true for people that bought piles of poo poo like Cavaliers and Sunfires, Neons etc..

Also, most of the people that screamed about that were the types who said "RAWWWRR!!! I'll never buy a NEW car cause -40% value when you drive it off the lot".

Then they go and buy a new car, and when I call them out on it, its always ":smug: yeah well, you know, I'm a good negotiator I taught that salesman that I don't play games! I'm the boss in that transaction so I got the best deal and thats why I can buy new and get a good deal"

Nitrox
Jul 5, 2002

skipdogg posted:

My take: absolutely not.

Maybe 2023 unless interest rates go up a lot. Could be 2024 if money stays cheap.
It's looking that way.

First a semiconductor production needs to scale up to meet demand. Then automakers need to make enough cars. Then deliver and distributor across the network of dealerships. And then everyone who is waiting for a car has to buy one. And the last, and very important step, new cars need to start piling up at the distributor lots in order for prices to get flexible again.

Anyone who thinks all this is going to happen in six months is delusional at best.

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22
It'll probably stop getting worse starting roughly now, and then for all the reasons you've said will take some time for very far upstream improvements to fully work their way through. I'm guessing MY23 should be pretty normal, assuming no other insane poo poo happens lmao

davecrazy
Nov 25, 2004

I'm an insufferable shitposter who does not deserve to root for such a good team. Also, this is what Matt Harvey thinks of me and my garbage posting.
Is it true Ford and Stellantis are going factory order only for their car lines for '22?

So no Mustangs/Chargers or Challengers just chilling on lots waiting for a buyer, you need to order one with the 2-3 month lag time now?

Jack B Nimble
Dec 25, 2007


Soiled Meat
When on the calendar can I go buy a Maverick and it be the second year? In the fall of 2022?

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

davecrazy posted:

Is it true Ford and Stellantis are going factory order only for their car lines for '22?

So no Mustangs/Chargers or Challengers just chilling on lots waiting for a buyer, you need to order one with the 2-3 month lag time now?

I believe this is true but it is only for certain car lines like the ones you mentioned. You don't have to factory order Cherokees and Escapes and F150s and poo poo.

DildenAnders
Mar 16, 2016

"I recommend Batman especially, for he tends to transcend the abysmal society in which he's found himself. His morality is rather rigid, also. I rather respect Batman.”

KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

I believe this is true but it is only for certain car lines like the ones you mentioned. You don't have to factory order Cherokees and Escapes and F150s and poo poo.

Key weird in his post was "cars". Those are all lovely crossovers/trucks.

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

DildenAnders posted:

Key weird in his post was "cars". Those are all lovely crossovers/trucks.

the average person uses them pretty interchangeably, so i wanted to make sure people in the thread didn't think you were going to have to factory order an Escape or whatever

Residency Evil
Jul 28, 2003

4/5 godo... Schumi

Deteriorata posted:

It should be. There are indicators that suggest we're past the worst of the supply chain issues, but it may take a while yet to get back to something closer to normal.

Out of curiosity, which indicators are showing this?

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Residency Evil posted:

Out of curiosity, which indicators are showing this?

Mainly rail and trucking, IIRC. They've both started ticking up in the last few months, which means a greater volume of stuff is getting moved around. It may drop again, it's no guarantee - but it's a positive sign that bottlenecks are getting smoothed out. There's still a long way to go before it's back to pre-Covid levels, but at least it's not going in the wrong direction at this point.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


Nitrox posted:

It's looking that way.

First a semiconductor production needs to scale up to meet demand. Then automakers need to make enough cars. Then deliver and distributor across the network of dealerships. And then everyone who is waiting for a car has to buy one. And the last, and very important step, new cars need to start piling up at the distributor lots in order for prices to get flexible again.

Anyone who thinks all this is going to happen in six months is delusional at best.

Once this does occur, I assume we should expect used car values to drop like a rock similar to how wood exploded in value over the summer? :ohdear:

hobbez
Mar 1, 2012

Don't care. Just do not care. We win, you lose. You do though, you seem to care very much

I'm going to go ride my mountain bike, later nerds.

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

Once this does occur, I assume we should expect used car values to drop like a rock similar to how wood exploded in value over the summer? :ohdear:

The rise in used car prices isnt really approximate to the 10x-ing or whatever that lumber did. Its been a rise of 25%, not 1000%. Prices will probably normalize slowly

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

Once this does occur, I assume we should expect used car values to drop like a rock similar to how wood exploded in value over the summer? :ohdear:

this won't happen because it will be very difficult for the OEMs to flood the market based on capacity constraints. supply side is more fixed than for lumber. plus each used car was a new car once, so lower production rates currently affect the future supply of used cars.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


Gotcha, so basically what you are telling me that high used car prices are going to last for a while and we shouldn't expect a sudden price drop. :smith:

Corla Plankun
May 8, 2007

improve the lives of everyone

quote:

Just so you know when you fill out the accessories that you want to add to a car on the Honda site, it doesn't include the labor costs.
This is bullshit right?

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Corla Plankun posted:

This is bullshit right?

I'm not sure of the context, but the price of an option is the installed price, including labor.

I have no idea what this person is referring to or how they came to that conclusion.

zedprime
Jun 9, 2007

yospos

Corla Plankun posted:

This is bullshit right?
Assuming you're talking to a dealer. Everything on the OEM website is MSRP. Remember you're buying from a Honda franchise, not Honda. They can charge you twice as much just because and then invoice you their stripper lunches besides and you can just try your luck at another dealer if you don't like the net price.

E. Re option vs accessory, being accessories these are things the dealer has a crate of and has a mechanic add on, they are absolutely gonna attempt to charge labor unless you complain or just tell them to throw it in the trunk and you'll deal with the installation.

zedprime fucked around with this message at 19:12 on Nov 17, 2021

Corla Plankun
May 8, 2007

improve the lives of everyone
Yeah, it is some random sales guy at a dealership responding to a HRV I picked out and want ordered. I feel like he's laying the groundwork for really racking up the dollars on nonsense dealership fees. Seller's markets are tough. I'm getting worried about how far the actual price of this car is going to stray from the sticker.

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


Get a purchase agreement in writing with out the door price before ordering.

IOwnCalculus
Apr 2, 2003





Also, strongly consider whether or not you need those to be Genuine Honda Accessories.

But yes, since Honda only lets you choose a trim and a color, everything else is considered a "dealer installed accessory" and dealers will gently caress you any way they can.

Methanar
Sep 26, 2013

by the sex ghost
I am now the proud owner of a 2005 toyota camry. $7400 cash total for smog, title transfer, sales tax, whatever.

I'm sure it's a terrible deal, but it's good enough for now. I'll sell it back when my american finances are sorted out.
Getting geico insurance was easy. They were the only ones willing to recognize my canadian driving history which took off $60/month that the other insurance companies wanted. I'm happy with $100 a month for now for insurance as a young male.

Not bad for my first time buying a car. There were a few hiccups of my Canadian credit card getting denied so far (loving airbnb)

Overall 7/10 experience. Glad I only ever need to bootstrap myself from scratch like this once.

Methanar fucked around with this message at 21:46 on Nov 17, 2021

the tingler
Jul 15, 2009
how many miles? Congrats on making it through that experience.

unrelated edit: I couldn't find an answer on google. Is there any problem with having a gap in insurance? I want to sell my car since I'm moving, and hold off on buying another for a while. When I do, will my rate be higher because of some "gap penalty"?

the tingler fucked around with this message at 22:09 on Nov 18, 2021

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


You'd probably lose any discounts you get from loyalty but it's not like they'd know you didn't have insurance through someone else.

Methanar
Sep 26, 2013

by the sex ghost

the tingler posted:

how many miles? Congrats on making it through that experience.

unrelated edit: I couldn't find an answer on google. Is there any problem with having a gap in insurance? I want to sell my car since I'm moving, and hold off on buying another for a while. When I do, will my rate be higher because of some "gap penalty"?

127k miles. But the car seems to run just fine. Easy to drive. I'm now reconsidering if I want to upgrade at all or just drive this thing forever. I like it much more than my old 2008 toyota tacoma truck.

wesleywillis
Dec 30, 2016

SUCK A MALE CAMEL'S DICK WITH MIRACLE WHIP!!

Methanar posted:

127k miles. But the car seems to run just fine. Easy to drive. I'm now reconsidering if I want to upgrade at all or just drive this thing forever. I like it much more than my old 2008 toyota tacoma truck.

At least keep it long enough to get settled in Americastan.

dpkg chopra
Jun 9, 2007

Fast Food Fight

Grimey Drawer
2 months ago I bought a car for 14.5k before fees and I already felt extremely ripped off.

I am now seeing that same car for 18k before fees.

RIP anyone that needs a car and isn't a computer toucher making over 100k

Solus M.D.
Oct 17, 2007

what did i just post?
Posted this in the Volvo thread but I need someone to talk me out of this car and tell me why its a bad idea.

Im in the market for an errands car and a kid mover.

2006 V50, 239k miles

skipdogg
Nov 29, 2004
Resident SRT-4 Expert

Solus M.D. posted:

Posted this in the Volvo thread but I need someone to talk me out of this car and tell me why its a bad idea.

Im in the market for an errands car and a kid mover.

2006 V50, 239k miles

My only question is why after putting what I'm guessing is more than the asking price worth of parts into the car, plus dozens of man hours of repairs, is he selling it. "I have too many volvos" isn't the best reason, especially for a car that he's sunk a ton of time and money into. Why not sell one of his other cars and keep this one? If I had too many cars I'd sell the incomplete project car before getting rid of one I've put so much work into.

I mean it could be legit and the guy just needs to get rid of it for some reason, but the part of me that doesn't trust anyone thinks it's got a major issue he's not telling anyone about and he's done throwing money at the car and wants to be done with it.

edit: I know nothing about Volvo's, so take my advice with a grain of salt.

DildenAnders
Mar 16, 2016

"I recommend Batman especially, for he tends to transcend the abysmal society in which he's found himself. His morality is rather rigid, also. I rather respect Batman.”
It's a 16 year old, turbocharged, semi-luxury, AWD car with well over 200k miles on it. If that isn't enough the seller sounds like a bit of a maniac and is already getting defensive about the work done to the car.

Solus M.D.
Oct 17, 2007

what did i just post?
This is not the first time Ive encountered a Volvo. . .fan? like that though.

Solus M.D.
Oct 17, 2007

what did i just post?

DildenAnders posted:

It's a 16 year old, turbocharged, semi-luxury, AWD car with well over 200k miles on it. If that isn't enough the seller sounds like a bit of a maniac and is already getting defensive about the work done to the car.

I do know a little bit about the cars history, the seller is the second owner. Original owner used it as a mommobile essentially.

Solus M.D.
Oct 17, 2007

what did i just post?

skipdogg posted:

My only question is why after putting what I'm guessing is more than the asking price worth of parts into the car, plus dozens of man hours of repairs, is he selling it. "I have too many volvos" isn't the best reason, especially for a car that he's sunk a ton of time and money into. Why not sell one of his other cars and keep this one? If I had too many cars I'd sell the incomplete project car before getting rid of one I've put so much work into.

I mean it could be legit and the guy just needs to get rid of it for some reason, but the part of me that doesn't trust anyone thinks it's got a major issue he's not telling anyone about and he's done throwing money at the car and wants to be done with it.

edit: I know nothing about Volvo's, so take my advice with a grain of salt.

What Ive learned about Volvo folks up here is that some people essentially get addicted to them so the description of everything checks out for me lol.

powderific
May 13, 2004

Grimey Drawer
I guess the real question is, do you want to become a volvo fan?

Solus M.D.
Oct 17, 2007

what did i just post?

powderific posted:

I guess the real question is, do you want to become a volvo fan?

I honestly see this as the real danger with this car.

Jean-Paul Shartre
Jan 16, 2015

this sentence no verb


My first car was a high-mileage 850 wagon. Best case scenario you end up with a lemon. Otherwise you end up One of Us.

take me you ANIMAL
Nov 28, 2002

Congrats big boy
Taking our 2006 scion xb into the shop because the steering is starting to shake. But it also has a host of other problems that are leading me to think it is time to get a newer car even in this crap market. It has VSC Trac off, CEL go on sometime whenever the car is at 3/4 to 1/2 a tank of gas, and then go off after that. I've taken it to three shops that have all given me different causes and all of them costing between 1-3k to fix, but the different solutions are leaving me questioning if it will fix it or not. Also the A/C is going and the windows are sticking down. All in all I'm figuring it's around 4-5k to get car running well again, as long as engine mounts and drive belt don't go soon, which was one of the recommended services from one of the repair shops.

From what I've seen posted recently, trying to just fix the critical stuff and holding off isn't really going to work since prices I guess won't go down for a few years. So while waiting to see what the repair costs will be since it won't get looked at until Monday. I'll go ahead and start looking for a replacement.

We currently have a 2019 Kia Sportage that we really like. Kids fit well in the back and has plenty or storage space. We still owe 8k on it.

Looking for a nice secondary vehicle that the payments are around 300 or so, don't care used or new, but since used market is so inflated, mostly leaning towards new. We can borrow a car for awhile if the scion bites it so everyone can get to work.

Looking mostly at hybrids and cars/wagons that would fill a similar purpose to the scion. But are open to other cars. We both either need to pick kid up or drop them off. So need a reliable car. Prius cars in our space are crazy inflated maybe, because I just saw a 2017 V listed for 22k.

Are there any other options for decent cars that are small or medium sized. Are the Kia Niros trash? Are most camrys good?

take me you ANIMAL fucked around with this message at 05:09 on Nov 25, 2021

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IOwnCalculus
Apr 2, 2003





You need to sit down and do the math based on what you have available for a down payment and what a realistic loan interest rate / term is for you and then come up with an out the door purchase price. Shopping on payment is a great way to end up with an 84 month term these days.

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