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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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|---|---|---|---|
| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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New variants pop up all the time, it's not significant unless it is more transmissible than delta and spreads widely/rapidly. Also that region is well-sampled for sequencing so we'll have ample warning if it does become a concern. The article says as much. edit: 
Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 20:58 on Nov 24, 2021 |
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Nov 24, 2021 20:55
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Does it spread as rapidly as delta or is it gonna be the next one in line to get smothered by the king
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Nov 24, 2021 20:56
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Epic High Five posted:Does it spread as rapidly as delta or is it gonna be the next one in line to get smothered by the king nobody knows but there are 10 identified cases so far, there are more than that ofc but it's a small number
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Nov 24, 2021 20:59
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Well the reason that “variant” was noteworthy and got attention is that it likely wouldn’t have to compete with delta. But yeah a bit soon to buy a new bunker
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Nov 24, 2021 20:59
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Also from a science/media literacy perspective, it's worth noting that the virologist saying it's a particularly bad set of spike mutations is the scientist who discovered it. They're certainly qualified to make that assessment, but they also have an interest in hyping their own work. That article is kind of getting into the territory of doing publicity for that individual researcher's own work. What I'm saying is it would be nice to have opinions from other virologists on how concerning the set of spike mutations are and not just the guy who discovered it. Of course what's most relevant is how it spreads. Most likely it'll go the route of all those other variants that popped up briefly in the news and we won't hear about it again because it can't outcompete Delta.
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Nov 24, 2021 21:08
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Is it competing with Delta, though?
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Nov 24, 2021 21:10
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Platystemon posted:Is it competing with Delta, though? Yeah, it is. It has possibility to be less well recognized by the immune system, but the whole cov.sars.3 thing is just made up by unhinged twitter, not anyone real.
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Nov 24, 2021 21:14
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Platystemon posted:Is it competing with Delta, though? Unless those regions have rolled out near-universal coverage of a vaccine with sterilizing immunity against Delta, then yes.
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Nov 24, 2021 21:14
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Platystemon posted:Is it competing with Delta, though? https://cov-lineages.org/lineage.html?lineage=B.1.617.2 https://cov-lineages.org/global_report_B.1.617.2.html Delta was first detected in South Africa on 24 April 2021, so it's been there about 7 months. According to those data it represents about 5% of sequences since it was first detected but that's the whole period and doesn't reflect the proportion of current infections in South Africa that are Delta. I'm sure you could dig up the proportion of Delta sequences in South Africa over the last few weeks, perhaps from their government websites but I'm not going down that rabbit hole this afternoon.
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Nov 24, 2021 21:22
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the holy poopacy posted:Unless those regions have rolled out near-universal coverage of a vaccine with sterilizing immunity against Delta, then yes. In the last few hours extremely crazy person twitter has decided this is a new disease: sars-cov-3 and that for some reason it has no cross immunity at all with delta (and resulted in the researchers that discovered it having to lock their github to stop people bum rushing it with twitter conspiracy nonsense). The idea is that this, being sars-3, would spread totally separate from Sars-2. (for some reason), Cspam has made the sars-3 thing their thread title, and that is what the "it's not competing with delta" thing is.
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Nov 24, 2021 21:26
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Fritz the Horse posted:I'm sure you could dig up the proportion of Delta sequences in South Africa over the last few weeks, perhaps from their government websites but I'm not going down that rabbit hole this afternoon. According to covariants.org, South Africa is much like the rest of the world in that it's been almost exclusively a Delta show for months now.  Gray is original recipe covid, reds are Alpha/Beta, and all shades of green are flavors of Delta. Source: https://covariants.org/per-country
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Nov 24, 2021 21:34
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Fritz the Horse posted:https://cov-lineages.org/lineage.html?lineage=B.1.617.2 I know that Delta exists in South Africa. Influenza does, too. That doesn’t mean that influenza is competing with Delta. The point is that if B.1.1.529 has significant evasion of antibodies from Delta‐recovered patients, that could be its niche. If a sufficiently large fraction of the population has “recovered” from Delta and is not susceptible to reinfection, but is susceptible to infection by B.1.1.529, the latter could sustain itself in that population. It doesn’t have to be able to infect everyone who recovered from Delta, just enough to have Reff greater than one.
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Nov 24, 2021 21:34
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Not to mention, if it has something like 30+ mutations on the spike and still works as a virus... even if this isn't the Big One that can get past the mRNA vaxx, it increases the chances that something like that exists in possible evolutionary space for the virus.
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Nov 24, 2021 21:44
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:
I know it is something that could never be discerned by your posts, but sir, this is a dead gay comedy forum? SARS-Cov-3 is a bit of finger waggling at the likelihood of minimal or no significant cross strain immunity to the current SARS-CoV-2 variants. Also, the submission is from Dr Tom Peacock, a well published virologist at Imperial College, who is describing it as "a horrific spike profile". It's quite fascinating. https://mobile.twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/1463176829016186893
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Nov 24, 2021 21:44
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:In the last few hours extremely crazy person twitter has decided this is a new disease: sars-cov-3 and that for some reason it has no cross immunity at all with delta (and resulted in the researchers that discovered it having to lock their github to stop people bum rushing it with twitter conspiracy nonsense). "extremely crazy person Twitter" in this case seems to include a lot of scientists. I see no reason why you have to smear anything that departs from Chise etc. talking points as being "crazy cave syndrome" in the post-Delta era. This is an extremely mutant variant, similar variants picked up in wastewater and attributed to rats show very significant immune escape, especially from mabs. Reworking the vaccine and mabs to deal with variants was originally a core strategy with covid and now just mentioning the possibility for the need is seen as dangerous. We knew this was part of this pandemic, we know the right response if it does (worst case) look able to crowd out Delta and evade immunity, it's just a matter of implementing it. I do not think promoting "a need to revise the vaccines is conspiracy nonsense" really fosters an atmosphere where variant boosters are going to get fast-tracked.
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Nov 24, 2021 21:46
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It is extremely frustrating seeing the effort put in to creating the various tools for controlling covid squandered because each tool has become some partisan shibboleth which must never be changed (or combined with the sinister Other's techniques). First-gen 2-dose mRNA vaccines for liberals, mabs for conservatives, NPIs for the left, it's insanity.
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Nov 24, 2021 21:49
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While Chise knows more about this thing then a lot of folks... well, I think she tempts fate rather a bit much with some of her rhetoric.
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Nov 24, 2021 21:49
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Wang Commander posted:"extremely crazy person Twitter" in this case seems to include a lot of scientists. Name literally one scientist that says this
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Nov 24, 2021 21:49
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e: I was going to post about Tom Peacock, but I can see that that’s been covered. Georgi Marinov, the source of the humorous “SARS-CoV-3” moniker is, so far as I can tell, only moderately crazy. He’s a postdoctoral researcher at Stanford and he has awful views on gender. The GitHub moderation was procedural, no different from when a thread here goes off topic for its subforum.
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Nov 24, 2021 21:50
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Platystemon posted:e: I was going to post about Tom Peacock, but I can see that that’s been covered. The pango github is really not the place for discussion, everyone is continuing it apace on Twitter. Marinov seems like a prick but not a crank, that's my read on him too. Hyperbolic and abrasive but not insane.
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Nov 24, 2021 21:51
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Sars-3 is specifically this guy:
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Nov 24, 2021 21:54
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I do think the sequencing is something that gets overlooked in a US-centric forum. We assume something only gets sequenced because it's causing some localized catastrophe (and the antigen backlog dump certainly caused the ongoing Gauteng outbreak to look like one), when routine sequencing is alive and well abroad. Not everywhere is fully committed to the "too little, too late" school of government.
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Nov 24, 2021 21:54
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Sars-3 is specifically this guy: He's a chud, doesn't mean his science is necessarily bad.
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Nov 24, 2021 21:55
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Sars-3 is specifically this guy: Yeah and that’s awful. Shame about his views. Doesn’t mean he does bad science. I mean, I didn’t know him from Adam yesterday, maybe he does do bad science, but since viruses don’t have sex or gender, his bad view on that do not themselves throw his work into question.
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Nov 24, 2021 21:56
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Also the article itself, while its existence is a chud dog whistle, isn't really giving anyone any red meat. It's a grumpy, pointless, fluff piece about the importance of understanding "man the animal" from a population genetics perspective informed by the mechanics of our chromosomal setup.
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Nov 24, 2021 22:01
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The Guardian published an article They got some quotes, nothing really great but it’s more than the other news outlets did. quote:Ravi Gupta, a professor of clinical microbiology at Cambridge University, said work in his lab found that two of the mutations on B.1.1.529 increased infectivity and reduced antibody recognition. “It does certainly look a significant concern based on the mutations present,” he said. “However, a key property of the virus that is unknown is its infectiousness, as that is what appears to have primarily driven the Delta variant. Immune escape is only part of the picture of what may happen.” Gupta is touting his own research. He’s biased, but also has more experience on these specific mutations than most. Balloux has said some questionable stuff about the pandemic in the past, but he seems like a straight shooter on this one: the sequence of B.1.1.529 itself is suggestive, but no one can say how it will behave as a whole in the wild.
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Nov 24, 2021 22:02
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The guy is being really hyperbolic and shooting off at the mouth, and I think his article demonstrates a history of this, but I am not sure when OOCC became the sole arbiter of scientific credibility. It seems like if you say, even in excitement, something that doesn't meet the fixed OOCC narrative, you're an "extremely crazy person" which is both [citation needed] and ableist as heck.
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Nov 24, 2021 22:04
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StratGoatCom posted:He's a chud, doesn't mean his science is necessarily bad. Guy with a masters degree in computer science, who is not doing research on coronavirus and not involved at all with anything to do with this specific corona virus. At this point it's just a random variant, some random guy has hyped up as THE BIG ONE, A BRAND NEW PLAGUE for no particular reason with no real actual researcher actually involved in coronavirus research saying much of anything about it, because it's still just one of hundreds of variants.
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Nov 24, 2021 22:05
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Platystemon posted:Gupta is touting his own research. He’s biased, but also has more experience on these specific mutations than most. I think this is pretty much all we can say at this point. It's suggestive, but unclear as to how it will perform in different populations under different conditions. When something is suggestive (and similar sequences have been even more strongly suggestive) of bad outcomes, the pandemic has definitely shown us it shouldn't just be rejected as a "crazy concern for cranks".
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Nov 24, 2021 22:06
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And, as I said, it shows that there is a real possiblity that the nightmare vaccine evader may, emphasis on that, be possible.
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Nov 24, 2021 22:07
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Guy with a masters degree in computer science, who is not doing research on coronavirus and not involved at all with anything to do with this specific corona virus. I was poking around at his pages, but since you’ve already compiled a dossier on this guy, what is he doing with his degree at the moment?
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Nov 24, 2021 22:11
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StratGoatCom posted:And, as I said, it shows that there is a real possiblity that the nightmare vaccine evader may, emphasis on that, be possible. Maybe! but be aware that people declaring this SARS-3 or even the declaration of this as the NU variant is not an actual thing that has happened outside of twitter people deciding it did. There has been a lot of carts being put in front of a lot of horses at this point in time.
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Nov 24, 2021 22:11
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Maybe! but be aware that people declaring this SARS-3 or even the declaration of this as the NU variant is not an actual thing that has happened outside of twitter people deciding it did. There has been a lot of carts being put in front of a lot of horses at this point in time. The fact that heavily mutated spike protein COVID is indeed viable is news that should be seen as extremely alarming.
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Nov 24, 2021 22:13
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StratGoatCom posted:And, as I said, it shows that there is a real possiblity that the nightmare vaccine evader may, emphasis on that, be possible. Right. We had seen some nightmare variants in surveillance testing previously, in the NY sewer cryptic lineage (rat covid?) neutralization tests. We had never seen half that poo poo in humans consistently, and now here is a huge package of it all at once in 10 sequences. In a better world this is actionable intel, but in our world we just have to wait and hope I guess, which is what makes this frustrating. It's certainly a sign that covid has not run out of evolutionary space in a general sense.
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Nov 24, 2021 22:14
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Platystemon posted:I was poking around at his pages, but since you’ve already compiled a dossier on this guy, what is he doing with his degree at the moment? Currently he is using his degree to get into virology researcher's github page and forcing them close comments because he's declaring things SARS-COV-3. Which sucks, because it was formerly a place for legitimately discussion among researchers and not just second twitter for weirdos to post sensational garbage.
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Nov 24, 2021 22:15
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Speaking of Marinov’s ethics: https://twitter.com/georgimarinov/status/1463582382347325444 He doesn’t have the best tact in replying to this, but he’s not wrong about who should be getting Paxlovid.
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Nov 24, 2021 22:16
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Maybe! but be aware that people declaring this SARS-3 or even the declaration of this as the NU variant is not an actual thing that has happened outside of twitter people deciding it did. There has been a lot of carts being put in front of a lot of horses at this point in time. You’re putting the possibility of a covid escape-variant in the same vein as unhinged twitter conspiracy theories. It’s a very real danger and, as they say, “Hope for the best but plan for the worst.” Seems a lot of people’s mentality is “let’s worry about it when it’s too late.”
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Nov 24, 2021 22:17
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Saying a new variant has "32 new mutations!!!!" is meaningless by itself. That's like a commercial claiming a new brand of diet soda has "32 new chemicals!!"
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Nov 24, 2021 22:17
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Currently he is using his degree to get into virology researcher's github page and forcing them close comments because he's declaring things SARS-COV-3. Which sucks, because it was formerly a place for legitimately discussion among researchers and not just second twitter for weirdos to post sensational garbage. O.K. but what code is he writing or maintaining? Is he involved in the modelling of biological systems or not? He retweets a lot of people who are, but I didn’t get far enough into his posts to see what he himself was up to.
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Nov 24, 2021 22:18
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KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:Here in the US, at least in my area, we also don't have a proclamation that COVID is over (really the opposite,) public venues still insist you mask up even if you're vaccinated, I'm in MA, when I went grocery shopping yesterday I saw about 25% masking on workers and 10% for shoppers.
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Nov 24, 2021 22:22
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