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Lord Awkward
Feb 16, 2012

Conspiratiorist posted:

Or maybe NATO should just, idk, disband.

Conspiratiorist posted:

as someone not living in the Baltics I'd take your sovereignty's sacrifice to modern Russian opportunism over more mil spending

Nice try, Vladimir.

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How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Vasukhani posted:

Yes, instead other people (unknown number ranging to 8 billion) should be sacrificed for the sake of a country getting to keep its special sky cloth

You know that Putin is choosing to be a warmonger, right? His choices are not some immutable force of nature. He could just...not.

wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019

How are u posted:

You know that Putin is choosing to be a warmonger, right? His choices are not some immutable force of nature. He could just...not.

Countries are always going to compete in an anarchic system. We have two choices 1) end the deluded madness of national sovereignty 2) accept competition and try our best not to annihilate humanity

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat
Accepting competition means not accepting modern day appeasement and not allowing a drummed up tinpot dictator to dictate the rules of the game to the rest of the world. Instead we have to recognize Putin for what he is, somebody who has no means to compete if faced with opposition of any kind, his only resort is to demoralize and win by default.

wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019

steinrokkan posted:

Accepting competition means not accepting modern day appeasement.

Would it be appeasement of the Austrian Empire if the Russian Empire retreated on Serbia in the July crisis?

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Vasukhani posted:

Would it be appeasement if the Russian Empire retreated on Serbia in the July crisis?

That's a very lovely analogy, we aren't dealing with a system of equally powerful alliances looking for an excuse to start a war over thousand different reasons, we are looking at the shambles of a former superpower trying to unilaterally wrangle some opportunistic gains against the whole of Europe by seeking and exploiting its political weaknesses, with no backing, no contingencies, no grand plan, no means to achieve anything other than what we let them.

And in your example, Russia backpedalling wouldn't have changed anything on its own.

steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 19:39 on Nov 24, 2021

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
Ooo! Look at me! NO DON'T LOOK AT ME!



Conspiratiorist posted:

Hey, ideally NATO should've disbanded 30 years ago, but as someone not living in the Baltics I'd take your sovereignty's sacrifice to modern Russian opportunism over more mil spending waste and the risk of an escalation cycle that fucks everyone over. That is already loving everyone over.

That said, you'll get your wish as there really aren't a lot of reasons for NATO not to answer for a request of heavy militarization of the Baltics & Poland; the only realistic alternative security guarantee (as in, doesn't result in the alliance breaking down as a farce) would be immediate strategic nuclear response to any assault by Russia on a NATO state.

How lovely. Whith allies like you how could other americans ever feel threatened by literal american fascists.

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day

How are u posted:

You know that Putin is choosing to be a warmonger, right? His choices are not some immutable force of nature. He could just...not.

Just as NATO could just... not exist as a continuously expanding military coalition whose implicit purpose is antagonizing the USSR's successor state as well as serving as an enabler for military adventurism in Africa and the Middle East.

Let us not forget it was Western policies that created Putin and his oligarchs - and it's Western policies that are allowing him to hold onto power by severely hurting the people of Russia and of everyone in Russia's orbit.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Conspiratiorist posted:

Just as NATO could just... not exist as a continuously expanding military coalition whose implicit purpose is antagonizing the USSR's successor state as well as serving as an enabler for military adventurism in Africa and the Middle East.

Let us not forget it was Western policies that created Putin and his oligarchs - and it's Western policies that are allowing him to hold onto power by severely hurting the people of Russia and of everyone in Russia's orbit.

Jesus loving Christ, this fashy bullshit again

The Allies are a continuously, aggressively expanding military coalition whose implicit purpose is antagonizing the German People and prevent them from the self-expression of their collective will.

The countries in NATO in the East joined it voluntarily, and Russia has no right to dictate them what to do, or to have any possession of them, or to brutalize them against their will by forcing them to be its unwilling subjects, unless you are a loving fascist bootlicker arguing for the legitimacy of the Lebensraum. Are you?

steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 19:45 on Nov 24, 2021

wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019

steinrokkan posted:

That's a very lovely analogy, we aren't dealing with a system of equally powerful alliances looking for an excuse to start a war over thousand different reasons, we are looking at the shambles of a former superpower trying to unilaterally impose their will on the whole of Europe, with no backing, no contingencies, no grand plan.

No country actually would prefer to fight a war than have its will enforced peacefully. And It's not my analogy. The idea that US and Russia are locked in an escalatory cycle with increasing costs resembling great power competition pre-ww1 has been articulated many times.

barbecue at the folks
Jul 20, 2007


So now that we had the biannual armchair general Clancy chat over with, the dictator defenders have logged on

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth
Why would you call the Russian Federation "the USSR's successor state" instead of by its name? The USSR is long dead and gone. That's kind of weird.

wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019

barbecue at the folks posted:

So now that we had the biannual armchair general Clancy chat over with, the dictator defenders have logged on

drat sensationalist clancy chat! what's next, Russia invading ukraine! lol, it will never happen, don't you realize history ended?

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
What if Russia 'disbands'? Discuss!

wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019
drat US state department posting clancy chat lol!

https://ua.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-kyiv-ukraine-4/

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Vasukhani posted:

No country actually would prefer to fight a war than have its will enforced peacefully. And It's not my analogy. The idea that US and Russia are locked in an escalatory cycle with increasing costs resembling great power competition pre-ww1 has been articulated many times.

The superficial similarity of one facet of today's complex situation to one facet of a complex historical situation is meaningless.

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day

How are u posted:

Why would you call the Russian Federation "the USSR's successor state" instead of by its name? The USSR is long dead and gone. That's kind of weird.

I'm sorry, did I forget what was NATO created for?

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin
Only way is to submit to the botox faced bunker grandpa or else he'll kill us all! Or some military contractors will get some money and there will be waste. On any case Russians have no agency, Putin=Russia

Great big brained analysis, just need that guy calling Russians russophobes if they don't repeat the Kremlin line to drop in for the full experience


cinci zoo sniper posted:

It depends. He doesn’t drink outside diplomatic functions, as far as I know, so you have a few options:

1) Drink beer, which he genuinely hates.

2) He doesn’t like potatoes, and often eats “keto-style” meat or fish meals. With meals he approves having 70-100 ml of quality vodka, so you could replicate that - maybe spiting him with potato vodka.

3) He handles strong liquors poorly, and prefers delicate, fragrant wines for the occasions where he has to drink.

lol I didn't know that about him. Are there any Belarusian spirits available in the Baltics? Probably the most authentic experience would be to have the stuff they used to contraband over the border, but now that stopped and I wouldn't risk it with the few mass poisoning events in the last year

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Somaen posted:

Great big brained analysis, just need that guy calling Russians russophobes if they don't repeat the Kremlin line to drop in for the full experience

Quiet, he's a mod now


E: Huh, apparently not, must have been NATO disinformation

wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019

steinrokkan posted:

The superficial similarity of one facet of today's complex situation to one facet of a complex historical situation is meaningless.

I mean yeah, we can just be like the field of IR is meaningless I guess. But we should probably tell the Russians and Americans that so they stop hiring experts to make their policy.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Vasukhani posted:

I mean yeah, we can just be like the field of IR is meaningless I guess. But we should probably tell the Russians and Americans that so they stop hiring experts to make their policy.

As somebody with a degree in IR, two points 1) yeah, it is 2) pointing at a random thing from the past and going "huh, ain't that like the thing now, ain't that interesting???" without any coherent thought behind it isn't IR, it's punditry, and few things are worse than punditry.

wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019

steinrokkan posted:

As somebody with a degree in IR, two points 1) yeah, it is 2) pointing at a random thing from the past and going "huh, ain't that like the thing now, ain't that interesting???" without any coherent thought behind it isn't IR, it's punditry, and few things are worse than punditry.

Punditry engaged in by the people who used to serve as the head of policy making. We can either assume that 1) they have no actual thoughts, head empty, or 2) they are basing policy around these theories


I'm sure you're degree in IR gives you a better understanding of bilateral relations than the guy who literally used to be one of the chief policy makers

quote:


None of this will be possible, however, absent a recognition that real danger is looming—not a modern variation of World War II-style planned aggression, but a nascent World War I-type escalatory spiral that few recognize is developing. That danger could end catastrophically if nothing changes.

wisconsingreg fucked around with this message at 20:02 on Nov 24, 2021

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin

steinrokkan posted:

Quiet, he's a mod now


E: Huh, apparently not, must have been NATO disinformation

Did he get promoted to admin after passing the "which genocides are CIA lies" test

wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019

steinrokkan posted:

As somebody with a degree in IR, two points 1) yeah, it is

Yeah, human behavior is actually unpredictable. There are no patterns. No use in studying it. Agreed. It's just a coincidence this keeps happening. We can never understand it. Its because bad people happen to be in charge. If I was in charge it wouldn't be like this!

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

aphid_licker
Jan 7, 2009


There's currently more USSR successor states in NATO than in the Russian Federation, clearly this shows that it is NATO which is now the Soviet Union.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

aphid_licker posted:

There's currently more USSR successor states in NATO than in the Russian Federation, clearly this shows that it is NATO which is now the Soviet Union.

That's a pretty good point. NATO just gets cooler and cooler.

wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019

aphid_licker posted:

There's currently more USSR successor states in NATO than in the Russian Federation, clearly this shows that it is NATO which is now the Soviet Union.

I think only Ukraine and Russia identify themselves as successors to the USSR in their constitution? Russia might actually be de facto, I think Ukraine is by law the successor to the USSR.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Conspiratiorist posted:

Hey, ideally NATO should've disbanded 30 years ago, but as someone not living in the Baltics I'd take your sovereignty's sacrifice to modern Russian opportunism over more mil spending waste and the risk of an escalation cycle that fucks everyone over. That is already loving everyone over.

That said, you'll get your wish as there really aren't a lot of reasons for NATO not to answer for a request of heavy militarization of the Baltics & Poland; the only realistic alternative security guarantee (as in, doesn't result in the alliance breaking down as a farce) would be immediate strategic nuclear response to any assault by Russia on a NATO state.

Vasukhani posted:

Yes, instead other people (unknown number ranging to 8 billion) should be sacrificed for the sake of a country getting to keep its special sky cloth

Is CSPAM closed for maintenance or what’s happening?

Somaen posted:

lol I didn't know that about him. Are there any Belarusian spirits available in the Baltics? Probably the most authentic experience would be to have the stuff they used to contraband over the border, but now that stopped and I wouldn't risk it with the few mass poisoning events in the last year

What do you mean with “used to”? :v:

Belarus beer is difficult to get here legally, but you can occasionally snag Krynitsa, Bobrov, or Zhigulevskoe. Their vodka is much more available, at least, but there’s nothing I’d consider good enough for a simple business gift, what is there to say about actually celebrating an occasion.

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 23:30 on Nov 24, 2021

wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Is CSPAM closed for maintenance or what’s happening?

Good news here is that official NATO policy is also the CSPAM take, apparently.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Vasukhani posted:

I think only Ukraine and Russia identify themselves as successors to the USSR in their constitution? Russia might actually be de facto, I think Ukraine is by law the successor to the USSR.

There’s a popular myth that Russia is the only de jure successor to the USSR.

In reality, the legal agreements signed by the majority of former Soviet republics stipulate that all 15 of them succeeded USSR in a proportional manner for economic purposes, with Russia and Ukraine being appointed as administrators of the succession process. Later the list of successors got refined to the CIS countries, so Georgia and Baltics excluding. Nonetheless, Baltics and Georgia did also participate in these processes to an extent.

For political purposes, Russia unilaterally chose to indeed be the sole successor of the USSR, in particular in matters such as Security Council membership, but that was not something universally recognised de jure. They just kind of rolled with it de facto, and Ukraine and Belarus got to be stewards in getting other former Soviet republics set up at UN etcetra.

The whole succession poo poo is also not particularly well defined legally, even with Vienna conventions take in account, so plenty of stuff was settled in courts on a per-case basis.

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 20:52 on Nov 24, 2021

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Vasukhani posted:

Yeah, human behavior is actually unpredictable. There are no patterns. No use in studying it. Agreed. It's just a coincidence this keeps happening. We can never understand it. Its because bad people happen to be in charge. If I was in charge it wouldn't be like this!

God please just shut the gently caress up

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Xarn
Jun 26, 2015
guys guys guys guys

We were so stupid.

We could've just given Sudetenland to Hitler and there would've been no WW2. How did we not think of this? Can you imagine how great the world could've been if we did that instead of fighting the war?




Wait, what? Why are you all laughing at me?

Xarn
Jun 26, 2015

Conspiratiorist posted:

Hey, ideally NATO should've disbanded 30 years ago, but as someone not living in the Baltics I'd take your sovereignty's sacrifice to modern Russian opportunism over more mil spending waste and the risk of an escalation cycle that fucks everyone over. That is already loving everyone over.

That said, you'll get your wish as there really aren't a lot of reasons for NATO not to answer for a request of heavy militarization of the Baltics & Poland; the only realistic alternative security guarantee (as in, doesn't result in the alliance breaking down as a farce) would be immediate strategic nuclear response to any assault by Russia on a NATO state.

So, is 0 to mask off in two posts this thread's record, or are there people who manage it in one post?

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki

Conspiratiorist posted:

Just as NATO could just... not exist as a continuously expanding military coalition whose implicit purpose is antagonizing the USSR's successor state as well as serving as an enabler for military adventurism in Africa and the Middle East.

wait, are we talking about NATO or Wagner PMC here? nations with the capacity for military or economic adventurism in other, poorer nations have been doing that for quite some time and continue to do so. Russia just lost that capability for a couple decades, but they're back baby! you can now choose from one of several bad options!

quote:

Let us not forget it was Western policies that created Putin and his oligarchs - and it's Western policies that are allowing him to hold onto power by severely hurting the people of Russia and of everyone in Russia's orbit.

i assure you, Anatoly Chubais, Yegor Gaidar, and Boris Yeltsin are not westerners, nor were they mind-controlled by the CIA to enact privatization as they did. they made absolutely terrible policy decisions in retrospect, but that's still on them. the oligarchic system persists because it's extremely beneficial to those in power, Putin included. he's quite aware of this, and of the effectiveness of blaming external problems for all ills to distract the population ire away from domestic problems. suggesting that Putin remains in power because of fear of NATO expansionism, rather than Putin remaining in power of his own volition and greed via widespread election rigging and consolidation of power under the federal executive, is a pretty lol take.

How are u posted:

Why would you call the Russian Federation "the USSR's successor state" instead of by its name? The USSR is long dead and gone. That's kind of weird.

we can solve this problem and the problem of NATO no longer needing to exist as of 30 years ago easily: just undo the Alma-Ata protocol and declare that the USSR, as a subject of international law and geopolitical reality, unceases to exist! may have a bit of difficulty getting Ukraine to sign back on though.

Qtotonibudinibudet fucked around with this message at 21:09 on Nov 24, 2021

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

:ohno:

Truga
May 4, 2014
Lipstick Apathy

Xarn posted:

guys guys guys guys

We were so stupid.

We could've just given Sudetenland to Hitler and there would've been no WW2. How did we not think of this? Can you imagine how great the world could've been if we did that instead of fighting the war?




Wait, what? Why are you all laughing at me?

comparing putin, as bad as he is, to hitler is insanely loving rich, so yes i am laughing at you lmfao

Arzachel
May 12, 2012

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Is CSPAM closed for maintenance or what’s happening?

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

cinci zoo sniper posted:

There’s a popular myth that Russia is the only de jure successor to the USSR.

In reality, the legal agreements signed by the majority of former Soviet republics stipulate that all 15 of them succeeded USSR in a proportional manner for economic purposes, with Russia and Ukraine being appointed as administrators of the succession process. Later the list of successors got refined to the CIS countries, so Georgia and Baltics excluding. Nonetheless, Baltics and Georgia did also participate in these processes to an extent.

For political purposes, Russia unilaterally chose to indeed be the sole successor of the USSR, in particular in matters such as Security Council membership, but that was not something universally recognised de jure. They just kind of rolled with it de facto, and Ukraine and Belarus got to be stewards in getting other former Soviet republics set up at UN etcetra.

The whole succession poo poo is also not particularly well defined legally, even with Vienna conventions take in account, so plenty of stuff was settled in courts on a per-case basis.

Of course, Ukraine has also left the CIS by now, its state symbols claim to be the successor of UNR and not Ukrainian SSR, while the state machinery is clearly the successor of the later...

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day

CMYK BLYAT! posted:

i assure you, Anatoly Chubais, Yegor Gaidar, and Boris Yeltsin are not westerners, nor were they mind-controlled by the CIA to enact privatization as they did. they made absolutely terrible policy decisions in retrospect, but that's still on them. the oligarchic system persists because it's extremely beneficial to those in power, Putin included. he's quite aware of this, and of the effectiveness of blaming external problems for all ills to distract the population ire away from domestic problems. suggesting that Putin remains in power because of fear of NATO expansionism, rather than Putin remaining in power of his own volition and greed via widespread election rigging and consolidation of power under the federal executive, is a pretty lol take.

Russia was promised a seat at the table following what it rightfully saw as a self-liberating return to democracy and embracement of European norms. Instead, the Central European states were treated - as they have been for the past 300 years - as geopolitical spoils of war for the West while Anthony Lake and Bill Clinton stabbed Yeltsin in the back.

People here can hee-haw about how "maybe Putin just shouldn't be a warmonger" all they want, but the rise of someone like him was pretty much guaranteed as the domestic response to the repeated broken promises and humiliation by foreign powers, just like decades of Western policies precipitated Ukraine, Georgia and Belarus ending up as deeply poor and corrupt broken countries, and how decades of Russophobic 'containment and isolation' American policy have both aided the regime's grip on power and left us with an aging autocrat worried about his legacy and perhaps thinking the current situation as his last best chance to reverse NATO encroachment.

There was a huge opportunity to move past all of this and Clinton's garbage foreign policy squandered it, so I'll freely accuse its architects and perpetuators of bearing responsibility for the immense misery and loss of life and property that has followed, and that is most likely about to follow again. And I don't believe pinning blame in the West's policies and responses as a huge contributing factor to the current clusterfuck is neither dictator apologia nor reductionist of the self-determination of the nations in question - on the contrary, thinking it's all about Putin while ignoring the historical and current geopolitical and cultural contexts that drive Russia's policy goals is missing the forest for the trees.

Conspiratiorist fucked around with this message at 23:17 on Nov 24, 2021

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Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Vasukhani posted:

Yes, instead other people (unknown number ranging to 8 billion) should be sacrificed for the sake of a country getting to keep its special sky cloth

What if Neville Chamberlain spoke Reddit.

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