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Which horse film is your favorite?
This poll is closed.
Black Beauty 2 1.06%
A Talking Pony!?! 4 2.13%
Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor 117 62.23%
War Horse 11 5.85%
Mr. Hands 54 28.72%
Total: 188 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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no lube so what
Apr 11, 2021

enki42 posted:

While this is for sure cause for alarm, taking precautionary actions against a new variant isn't conclusive proof that the variant is "significantly worse". A sane response to an unknown variant with concerning characteristics is to not wait until you've proven it's super bad, because at that point you already have enough community transmission in your country that border closures are pointless.

Uk is vaccinated. imo, overreaction. The economy cannot take it.

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enki42
Jun 11, 2001
#ATMLIVESMATTER

Put this Nazi-lover on ignore immediately!

no lube so what posted:

Uk is vaccinated. imo, overreaction. The economy cannot take it.

I'm not an expert on the UK economy, but a couple of weeks of travel restrictions to South Africa and increased monitoring don't exactly seem like economy-crippling actions, particularly if they're going to avoid getting into a situation that would actually have a significant effect.

For sure "a couple of weeks" can turn into a lot more, but that's in the scenario where the variant is bad news, and the restrictions are definitely necessary to avoid / delay further restrictions.

knulla
Jun 6, 2004

by Fluffdaddy
So now that I know the temperature here, questions for you covid goons:

How sure are you that you're right about these vaccines being the way to end the pandemic? Looking for a confidence interval, e.g., "I am 100% sure these vaccines are the way out of this pandemic."

Is there any evidence that could come to light that would make you less sure of yourselves about the vaccines' efficacy? And what about their safety?

Charles 2 of Spain
Nov 7, 2017

Fritz the Horse posted:

Being proactive is wise though, I'm not saying the UK should not ban flights and increase monitoring, those are good things and it would be nice if other nations with more resources would apply some of them to limit spread, support South Africa, and study the variant so we better understand the threat.
You know full well only the first part will happen.

Lemming
Apr 21, 2008

knulla posted:

Is there any evidence that could come to light that would make you less sure of yourselves about the vaccines' efficacy? And what about their safety?

Wow where have I heard this guy fearmongering about vaccine safety before?

knulla posted:

But, yea, have fun with injecting your kids with experimental drugs for diseases they won't notice if they get. :hug:

gently caress off with your antivaxx bullshit

Wang Commander
Dec 27, 2003

by sebmojo

knulla posted:

So now that I know the temperature here, questions for you covid goons:

How sure are you that you're right about these vaccines being the way to end the pandemic? Looking for a confidence interval, e.g., "I am 100% sure these vaccines are the way out of this pandemic."

Is there any evidence that could come to light that would make you less sure of yourselves about the vaccines' efficacy? And what about their safety?

The first generation of vaccines will not end the pandemic, but a vaccine program is a necessary part of ending the pandemic.

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



It's just personal travel, the economy will be fine as this shouldn't interrupt the flow of sex arses and eels from the UK and Elons Musk from SA

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



knulla posted:

So now that I know the temperature here, questions for you covid goons:

How sure are you that you're right about these vaccines being the way to end the pandemic? Looking for a confidence interval, e.g., "I am 100% sure these vaccines are the way out of this pandemic."

Is there any evidence that could come to light that would make you less sure of yourselves about the vaccines' efficacy? And what about their safety?

Just Ask Questions elsewhere, or lurk more, all this has been covered in detail

cant cook creole bream
Aug 15, 2011
I think Fahrenheit is better for weather

knulla posted:

So now that I know the temperature here, questions for you covid goons:

How sure are you that you're right about these vaccines being the way to end the pandemic? Looking for a confidence interval, e.g., "I am 100% sure these vaccines are the way out of this pandemic."

Is there any evidence that could come to light that would make you less sure of yourselves about the vaccines' efficacy? And what about their safety?

I am 100% sure that if there is a way out of this pandemic at all, vaccines are a central cornerstone.

At the current level of infection, it will only be a matter of time until I'd get infected to. So I'd take any working vaccine which would kill about 10% as the disease or less.
If I only had a chance of 1% to ever get this nasty stuff and the vaccine would be 10% as deadly as the disease itself, I'd probably gamble with a lack of vaccine.
But since the numbers of vaccine safety issues are far far far far below that, vaccination is a no-brainer. The chance to get averse negative side-effects from approved vaccines are epsilon-level rounding errors. Therefore it's just a strict improvement to vaccinate. That would even be the case, if it was only 1% effective. But seeing how according to current statistics, an unvaccinated person is still 10 times as likely to end in a hospital, that's far from the case.

If there were reports of mass-deaths shortly after vaccinations I'd obviously hesitate. But that's not the case and would have popped up months ago.

People who are still hesitant after literally billions of people did it before them they either have no clue about statistics, or they are so full of themselves that they assume they are the one special person who needs a separate lane.

Also there's the whole "I don't want to get sick, because infecting friends and family would really suck"-aspect.

I hope that helps.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

Fritz the Horse posted:

I dunno, I didn't dig super deeply into the SA info

FYI if anyone wants the info without piecing together a bunch of tweet threads, most of it is coming from Oliveira’s briefing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ&t=754s

If the timecode doesn’t work, you want a little before thirteen minutes in.

Alctel
Jan 16, 2004

I love snails


freebooter posted:

Oh for Pete's sake

I know right, what the actual gently caress is even happening in this thread

Doomposting is at an unhealthy level and there seem to be a couple of people on the edge and need to get off twitter for a few days, take a step back and calm the gently caress down before declaring existing vaccines 'useless'

smoobles
Sep 4, 2014

Round 1 of covid creating widespread polarization around masks and complacency among populations before a much deadlier round 2 shows up is basically the worst possible outcome for covid. Lmao

wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1463980260224077829?s=20

its march all over again lol

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



God willing it's just a mink scare all over again

ho fan
Oct 6, 2014

Epic High Five posted:

God willing it's just a mink scare all over again

I think implementing the same solution as they did with minks would be pretty problematic

cant cook creole bream
Aug 15, 2011
I think Fahrenheit is better for weather
If you had the power to instantly kill all coronaviruses worldwide, but all current hosts would die as well, Would you do it? What if the cases were 0.1% of what they are now with a high likelihood of going up again? What if there are only 3 active hosts?

Gio
Jun 20, 2005


cant cook creole bream posted:

If you had the power to instantly kill all coronaviruses worldwide, but all current hosts would die as well, Would you do it? What if the cases were 0.1% of what they are now with a high likelihood of going up again? What if there are only 3 active hosts?

*smashes button*

I’m sorry, you were saying?

Charles 2 of Spain
Nov 7, 2017

cant cook creole bream posted:

If you had the power to instantly kill all coronaviruses worldwide, but all current hosts would die as well, Would you do it? What if the cases were 0.1% of what they are now with a high likelihood of going up again? What if there are only 3 active hosts?
Who are the active hosts, this is important

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

enki42 posted:

I'm not an expert on the UK economy, but a couple of weeks of travel restrictions to South Africa and increased monitoring don't exactly seem like economy-crippling actions, particularly if they're going to avoid getting into a situation that would actually have a significant effect.

For sure "a couple of weeks" can turn into a lot more, but that's in the scenario where the variant is bad news, and the restrictions are definitely necessary to avoid / delay further restrictions.

There is zero point in restricting travel from South Africa alone

dwarf74
Sep 2, 2012



Buglord

knulla posted:

So now that I know the temperature here, questions for you covid goons:

How sure are you that you're right about these vaccines being the way to end the pandemic? Looking for a confidence interval, e.g., "I am 100% sure these vaccines are the way out of this pandemic."

Is there any evidence that could come to light that would make you less sure of yourselves about the vaccines' efficacy? And what about their safety?
Every question you've asked has been abundantly answered. Vaccination is a core component of any successful strategy out of the pandemic. MRNA vaccines have been administered a few billion times now, and nothing in them sticks around more than a few weeks; they're exceptionally safe.

I could be convinced they're not effective if we weren't seeing what we're seeing - but the numbers are super clear that the vaccines are effective against severe disease, death, and even infection. It's simply idiotic to think they're ineffective at this point. I could be convinced they're unsafe if people were filling hospitals on side effects instead of with covid itself. Which they aren't.

Every single piece of evidence available says the vaccines are excellent and safe, and zero evidence says otherwise. They're not perfect, but an expectation of perfection is absurd.

Turning it around - in what possible way could you still doubt safety or efficacy with even a minimal grasp of statistics?

cant cook creole bream
Aug 15, 2011
I think Fahrenheit is better for weather

Charles 2 of Spain posted:

Who are the active hosts, this is important

You do not have that information.

knulla
Jun 6, 2004

by Fluffdaddy
The reason I'm asking about the safety & efficacy is I used to work in pharma. Phase 3 is specifically about understanding safety and efficacy of a molecule.

These vaccines were sold as 100% safe and effective. Phase 3 for all the vaccines are still not complete (despite all the lies saying they are, e.g., here's Biontech's clinical trial study from clinicaltrials.gov: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04368728), and thus we can't really know what the safety profile is--if you think we can, then you also think FDA phase 3 trials are stupid and unnecessary, which is a strange but fine viewpoint that I'm sure most here hold.

And so now I'm seeing in various circles some actual shaking of the narrative--sports circles are really starting to wonder about all the soccer players that are dropping dead on the field, and starting to disbelieve the story that "this is just the same number of players dying as always has been". I'm a part of parenting groups in 5 states, and all of the groups started off extremely pro-vaccine, even the crunchy af PDX groups who are vocally against fluoride in toothpaste and/or water. And 3 of the ~8 groups I'm a part of are now splintering due to parents posting about severe adverse reactions their children experienced--in every case, the child was in the hospital, in two cases in the icu for multiple days, and what it took was these harrowing pictures of timmy in the hospital bed for other parents to begin to wonder, "Hey, maybe it doesn't make any sense to put these into my kids."

So maybe these are all just spurious and part of my filter bubble. Or maybe SA is so uniminded that all alternative thinking is scared away or silenced. Or maybe goons are just slow on the uptake. Or who knows. So I'm curious what y'all think, is all, but yes, please keep it with the streams of insults, non-sequitors, and high-minded slams against anyone who dares to question any of the logic pushed by global public health organizations that have proven over and over they are either incredibly loving stupid or mendacious or both.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!
happy thanksgiving everyone, sounds like the menu tonight is good ol' turkey, mashed potatoes, and luke-warm antivaxx bullshit

jetz0r
May 10, 2003

Tomorrow, our nation will sit on the throne of the world. This is not a figment of the imagination, but a fact. Tomorrow we will lead the world, Allah willing.



smoobles posted:

Round 1 of covid creating widespread polarization around masks and complacency among populations before a much deadlier round 2 shows up is basically the worst possible outcome for covid. Lmao

No, it's great for covid. Covid is in fact doing great, thanks for asking. Covid is also very excited for the upcoming season.


knulla posted:


These vaccines were sold as 100% safe and effective. Phase 3 for all the vaccines are still not complete (despite all the lies saying they are, e.g., here's Biontech's clinical trial study from clinicaltrials.gov: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04368728), and thus we can't really know what the safety profile is--if you think we can, then you also think FDA phase 3 trials are stupid and unnecessary, which is a strange but fine viewpoint that I'm sure most here hold.

gently caress off.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
You know someone is a real expert when they can't tell 100% and 93% apart. Really make you confident they can do proper statistical analysis!

knulla
Jun 6, 2004

by Fluffdaddy

OddObserver posted:

You know someone is a real expert when they can't tell 100% and 93% apart. Really make you confident they can do proper statistical analysis!

I'm not stupid enough to think anything in medicine is ever 100%. But the media and even pharmaceutical companies are much stupider (or, more realistically, manipulative). E.g.,: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/is-the-pfizer-vaccine-really-100-25-effective-in-teens/ar-AAR5Nba

"The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are “essentially 100 percent effective against serious disease,” Dr. Paul Offit, the director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, said. “It’s ridiculously encouraging.”"
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/18/briefing/donald-trump-pardon-phil-spector-coronavirus-deaths.html

Gio
Jun 20, 2005


knulla posted:

I'm not stupid enough to think anything in medicine is ever 100%. But the media and even pharmaceutical companies are much stupider (or, more realistically, manipulative). E.g.,: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/is-the-pfizer-vaccine-really-100-25-effective-in-teens/ar-AAR5Nba

"The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are “essentially 100 percent effective against serious disease,” Dr. Paul Offit, the director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, said. “It’s ridiculously encouraging.”"
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/18/briefing/donald-trump-pardon-phil-spector-coronavirus-deaths.html

really a shame how insecure you are about your intelligence

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Between the endless doomposting and now, apparently, people posting straight up anti-vax misinformation without getting banned, I think I'm checking out of this thread

knulla
Jun 6, 2004

by Fluffdaddy
The doomposting is hilarious. How quick some people here are to buy into every little fearporn narrative bullshitted by twitter morons.

OMG THE SA STRAIN!

knulla
Jun 6, 2004

by Fluffdaddy

freebooter posted:

Between the endless doomposting and now, apparently, people posting straight up anti-vax misinformation without getting banned, I think I'm checking out of this thread

i guess the cdc's and fda's websites are hosting lots of misinformation lol

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

knulla posted:

sports circles are really starting to wonder about all the soccer players that are dropping dead on the field
They're faking it to get a penalty.

Illuminti
Dec 3, 2005

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

knulla posted:

The reason I'm asking about the safety & efficacy is I used to work in pharma. Phase 3 is specifically about understanding safety and efficacy of a molecule.

These vaccines were sold as 100% safe and effective. Phase 3 for all the vaccines are still not complete (despite all the lies saying they are, e.g., here's Biontech's clinical trial study from clinicaltrials.gov: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04368728), and thus we can't really know what the safety profile is--if you think we can, then you also think FDA phase 3 trials are stupid and unnecessary, which is a strange but fine viewpoint that I'm sure most here hold.

And so now I'm seeing in various circles some actual shaking of the narrative--sports circles are really starting to wonder about all the soccer players that are dropping dead on the field, and starting to disbelieve the story that "this is just the same number of players dying as always has been". I'm a part of parenting groups in 5 states, and all of the groups started off extremely pro-vaccine, even the crunchy af PDX groups who are vocally against fluoride in toothpaste and/or water. And 3 of the ~8 groups I'm a part of are now splintering due to parents posting about severe adverse reactions their children experienced--in every case, the child was in the hospital, in two cases in the icu for multiple days, and what it took was these harrowing pictures of timmy in the hospital bed for other parents to begin to wonder, "Hey, maybe it doesn't make any sense to put these into my kids."

So maybe these are all just spurious and part of my filter bubble. Or maybe SA is so uniminded that all alternative thinking is scared away or silenced. Or maybe goons are just slow on the uptake. Or who knows. So I'm curious what y'all think, is all, but yes, please keep it with the streams of insults, non-sequitors, and high-minded slams against anyone who dares to question any of the logic pushed by global public health organizations that have proven over and over they are either incredibly loving stupid or mendacious or both.

I would love to see a citation on this that isn't a link to your aunts facebook page

Castaign
Apr 4, 2011

And now I knew that while my body sat safe in the cheerful little church, he had been hunting my soul in the Court of the Dragon.
Sure, I'll bite.

knulla posted:

These vaccines were sold as 100% safe and effective.

No they weren't. They were sold as extremely safe and very effective.

knulla posted:

And so now I'm seeing in various circles some actual shaking of the narrative--sports circles are really starting to wonder about all the soccer players that are dropping dead on the field, and starting to disbelieve the story that "this is just the same number of players dying as always has been".

Sports... circles? Can you maybe be a bit more specific?

knulla posted:

I'm a part of parenting groups in 5 states.

What? Why? How many kids do you have, and why are they spread out across 5 states?

knulla posted:

And 3 of the ~8 groups I'm a part of are now splintering due to parents posting about severe adverse reactions their children experienced--in every case, the child was in the hospital, in two cases in the icu for multiple days, and what it took was these harrowing pictures of timmy in the hospital bed for other parents to begin to wonder, "Hey, maybe it doesn't make any sense to put these into my kids."

So it's 8 parenting groups in 5 states? Seriously, how many kids do you have? Poison womb, heaven, etc.

Snarkiness aside, can you back these claims up? How certain are the health professionals that these are reactions to the vaccines? Cause, lots of people - even young kids - end up in the hospital all the time for various reasons.

Snarkiness not aside, this really sounds a lot like these kids were hospitalized with the vaccine, not because of the vaccine. Because, uh, three eighths of kids having hospitalization-level reactions to the vaccine sounds like the sort of thing that would make the news. Somewhere. At some level.

Illuminti
Dec 3, 2005

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Castaign posted:



Snarkiness not aside, this really sounds a lot like these kids were hospitalized with the vaccine, not because of the vaccine. Because, uh, three eighths of kids having hospitalization-level reactions to the vaccine sounds like the sort of thing that would make the news. Somewhere. At some level.

Also, poster and parents are lying.

The biggest predictor of your kid suffering from adverse reactions to a vaccine is the parents being anti-vax morons.

knulla
Jun 6, 2004

by Fluffdaddy
Sports circles is really hard to understand? How about the soccer subreddit for the first time today having active, upvoted comment threads about the vaccines having some role to play in all these young, healthy soccer players dying. Have you not heard about this at all? I'm guessing most here would throw this away as some stupid conservative conspiracy theory, but deaths are pretty hard to hide and it's becoming painfully obvious something is amiss.

I have lived in 5 states (well, currently live in 2 states) and have joined parenting groups in each--sometimes multiple groups. I generally don't depart once I move again because I enjoy the other parents in the groups. Not really that hard to understand. Don't need a lot of kids to understand this.

NecroBob
Jul 29, 2003

freebooter posted:

Between the endless doomposting and now, apparently, people posting straight up anti-vax misinformation without getting banned, I think I'm checking out of this thread

Come join us in the GBS thread. Somehow it's the better moderated thread between the two, because you can just ridicule JAQing off horseshit instead of having to treat it as Serious Good Faith Effortposting. For the Nth time around.

Gio
Jun 20, 2005


knulla posted:

Sports circles is really hard to understand? How about the soccer subreddit for the first time today having active, upvoted comment threads about the vaccines having some role to play in all these young, healthy soccer players dying. Have you not heard about this at all? I'm guessing most here would throw this away as some stupid conservative conspiracy theory, but deaths are pretty hard to hide and it's becoming painfully obvious something is amiss.

I have lived in 5 states (well, currently live in 2 states) and have joined parenting groups in each--sometimes multiple groups. I generally don't depart once I move again because I enjoy the other parents in the groups. Not really that hard to understand. Don't need a lot of kids to understand this.

lmao

Gio
Jun 20, 2005


sincerely lmao’ing at “i have lived in multiple states and joined multiple parent groups!” as evidence of a vaccine-induced kid pogrom

knulla
Jun 6, 2004

by Fluffdaddy

Illuminti posted:

Also, poster and parents are lying.

The biggest predictor of your kid suffering from adverse reactions to a vaccine is the parents being anti-vax morons.

How would my children get hurt from not taking the covid vaccine? Are you... are you actually suggesting they're gonna get hurt by covid? Are you for real? LOL!!!

As I've said upthread, I'm extremely pro vaccine. I'm pro SAFE vaccine. The way we have created the dozens of safe vaccines that have been injected into my and your kids' veins is via a social and cultural process of rigorous, long-term study of new vaccine formulations, generally taking ~10 years. We have thrown away the safe vaccine playbook for the covid vaccines, which again is a cultural technology, and so I am not injecting my kids with this.

Hilarious you're so deluded you think this poses a risk to my children. I'm sorry you've been so misinformed.

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ModernMajorGeneral
Jun 25, 2010

Gio posted:

sincerely lmao’ing at “i have lived in multiple states and joined multiple parent groups!” as evidence of a vaccine-induced kid pogrom

I like existence of "active, upvoted comment threads" on reddit as evidence better

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