|
Better way to do it would have been (Person 1st out in Immunity Challenge) vs. (Person voted out at tribal) in a fire-making challenge, loser goes home.
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 06:26
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 20:51 |
|
|
Shan scowling and silently crying the whole time... extremely petulant. I enjoyed the jury's reaction this episode. I thought the race-chat was on point and appropriate. Liana said it best along the lines of "I know fans want to watch Survivor but this is real." An alliance based on cultural lines seem like it makes the game wayyy more emotional and difficult. I was rooting for the all-black final 4 but they ended up turning on each other in the end. I'm assuming that's why Shan is still so bitter about it, but imo her fate was completely her fault and avoidable if she just chose her alliance over Ricard. Likewise Liana should have never told Shan about the secret Ricard vote. Deshawn & Danny shouldn't have conspired without Shan. There's definitely a domino meme in here. Meanwhile Xander is just another white guy failing upwards and THAT is what I can relate to (I cried a little too, Xander). The more I think about it, the more messed up it is that Shan called Deshawn a snake lol. She got burned and said gently caress the culture and destroyed my man Deshawn! "My hearts going with this one Jeff (the one you guys made the most obvious)." White savior strikes again smh. Survivor is single-handedly ending racism and I am here for it.
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 06:41
|
|
|
Presumably it was a true Monty Hall problem, but since Jeff didn’t explain all the rules beforehand it could have been the trap Monty Hall where switching is always wrong.
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 06:53
|
|
|
Spokes posted:I would have asked “were you always going to reveal a skull” because I feel like you’d get to know that, probably right? never mind, i just remembered this was the season that's given us such hits as "that immunity challenge didn't count, and the winners actually lost, lol"
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 07:03
|
|
|
Khanstant posted:I'm not sure I totally get outing Liana, might've spaced out there. Xander and Erika are using the Tony method of keeping a shield in front of them. As long as Ricard is in the game he's the biggest target, and because Deshawn and Danny were both immune Liana was the only target left. Xander even went so far as to use his extra vote just to make sure it was still Liana even if Erika flipped.
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 07:53
|
|
|
gotta think they try and get ricard out next ep if they can
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 08:02
|
|
|
in awful survivor if you open the die box i kill you for real.
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 09:40
|
|
|
Brass posted:Shan scowling and silently crying the whole time... extremely petulant. I enjoyed the jury's reaction this episode. the game is a lot shorter this season around so she's probably had less than 24 hours to try to process everything, it's hard to blame her for wearing her emotions on her sleeve the way she is after the blindside that was pulled on her
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 09:42
|
|
|
STONE COLD 64 posted:the game is a lot shorter this season around so she's probably had less than 24 hours to try to process everything, it's hard to blame her for wearing her emotions on her sleeve the way she is after the blindside that was pulled on her Yeah, to me it looked like she was just trying to figure out wtf happened. She seemed cool by the end of it. I almost yelled out Monty… too but then looked at the clock and knew he was safe.
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 09:50
|
|
|
Wraith of J.O.I. posted:gotta think they try and get ricard out next ep if they can I think they go one more, but with how strong Ricard is in challenges I think it's a mistake to not get him out while they have the chance.
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 09:53
|
|
|
i think erika and heather are attempting to leverage themselves as a required swing vote between the two factions of danny/deshawn and xavier/ricard. if you're trying to play both sides, it makes sense to take a shot at the deshawn/danny/liana trio today. with both danny and deshawn safe, that left you with one option. trying to target ricard or xavier today (remember we're looking from erika and heather's perspective here) only destabilizes your ability to be a swing vote and protect against the black alliance. what does make sense is to hit liana today, then next vote, you regroup and try to get danny and deshawn on your side and take a swipe at either ricard or xavier, whichever one doesn't win immunity. if ricard does win immunity and xavier makes it public he's gonna idol, or if you're worried he's gonna idol, then take out one of deshawn/danny, and align with whoever is left of the two afterward. you still have numbers 3 to 2. the problem however is we're playing a game that has a final three, so you have to bring in a third, and you need to bring in the least attractive looking third player for the end. this leaves either deshawn or xavier, which based on all the above, means to get to that destination, you have to move through it very carefully and methodically.
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 10:04
|
|
|
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 10:28
|
|
|
Pretty good episode but it really is dumb as gently caress to do the live or die twist at the final 7 vote. Even worse since I guess it was also the last time anyone could do the shot in the dark. Final 7 & Final 9 votes shouldn't be something to gently caress around with IMO. And yea I think anyone wondering if it's a Monty Hall problem is just not thinking. Jeff had to "setup" the game, he most certainly knew which box had the flame and would have always revealed a skull first. But it makes it better since Deshawn made the incorrect strategy choice, but it's a game a chance and not a game of skill...
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 11:48
|
|
|
I mean it's a game of chance either way but you get to choose between two probabilities Few games are pure chance. I hesitate to call War or Candyland games at all since there's no player input, unless you're cheating I guess
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 14:22
|
|
|
Nobody pays enough attention in War. You should be cheating if you're playing it  Learn to deal 2nds and keep an ace on top
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 14:24
|
|
|
Sounds like a lot of effort to win the worst time waster game for children
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 14:31
|
|
|
I had to look up the Monty Hall problem and I understand the logic behind it but I reject it and stand with Deshawn's instead. Anyway here's my final power rankings rankings (right? Next week is the finale?) Ricard -Ricard separates himself from the pack because the pack is convinced he'll win if he makes it to the end, which is enough for me to just not even think about if anyone could sweet talk their way through the jury and take it from him. Xander Erika -Xander and Erika I think are correctly identified as the next two threats. Xander's move to keep Ricard this week is a little risky but he's put himself in an incredibly good spot here. If Ricard loses immunity at 6 or 5 he's 100% gone, which is effectively immunity for Xander (whether he has it or not), and Xander also has an immunity idol for the other of those two tribals. If he's any good at making fire then that's basically the biggest obstacle for him coasting into the final 3. -Erika's path to the end is harder. She has nothing protecting her and has sort of been tagged as a strategic threat the whole game. Deshawn and Danny are also very unlikely (imo) to turn on each other to keep her in the game at the expense of one of them. So she'd have to convince Xander and (possibly) Ricard to stay on her side. Deshawn -I was initially thinking about putting Deshawn and Danny together but I think in the end he can take more credit for a lot of moves than Danny can. Also likely gets more kudos from last night's tribal than Danny as well. Danny -I wish I could say I think Danny has a chance to win but it's just not there for me. Maybe he can do something in the finale considering the next episode preview Heather -Podium!
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 16:51
|
|
|
IcePhoenix posted:Xander and Erika are using the Tony method of keeping a shield in front of them. As long as Ricard is in the game he's the biggest target, and because Deshawn and Danny were both immune Liana was the only target left. Xander even went so far as to use his extra vote just to make sure it was still Liana even if Erika flipped. Ah, okay that makes sense then. I'm getting my hopes up Erika makes it to the final, I'm definitely feeling she's the underdog. Excluded from PoC alliance, been scrapping along, name often thrown around and quite a few people targeting her for a while. However, my hopes being up tells me that she will almost certainly fall immediately next episode. Spokes posted:I would have asked “were you always going to reveal a skull” because I feel like you’d get to know that, probably right? LMAO if Jeff misunderstood the whole thing and revealed a winning box and asked him if he wanted to switch. In this case, there was never any way Jeff wasn't going to reveal a loser box. Hell, he was thinking it when he was all excited to tell them about the "Do or die" thing. He was probably walking by players coughing "monty hall" softly and they'd go "what?" and he's just wink and say nothing. quote:I had to look up the Monty Hall problem and I understand the logic behind it but I reject it and stand with Deshawn's instead. Sometimes you will be wrong for taking the greater odds, sometimes you will be right, particularly when you only get one chance. Plus, in the back of my mind, I'd always be like "okay, obviously production knows about this common trivia thing like I do, so maybe they're deliberately doing the opposite of the right thing, since that would be more dramatic probably... but what if production knew I'd know it and think that and they play it straight and that'd be dramatic in it's own way..." and poo poo, at some point you may as well give yourself permission to be an airhead, see the odds at 50/50 win/lose :v and just pick one arbitrarily, rationalize why you chose later. The Bloop posted:I mean it's a game of chance either way but you get to choose between two probabilities Unless you're cheating, lol, who wasn't? Candyland was briefly a really boring unchallenging game made for sick kids or something, but since then has evolved into a game that teaches kids that even though the cards are already in predetermined order and you're not meant to have any input, you can actually influence and control the game through alternate means. If you're not manipulating Candy Land, you're not playing at all-- you're getting played.
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 17:51
|
|
|
Khanstant posted:Plus, in the back of my mind, I'd always be like "okay, obviously production knows about this common trivia thing like I do, so maybe they're deliberately doing the opposite of the right thing, since that would be more dramatic probably... but what if production knew I'd know it and think that and they play it straight and that'd be dramatic in it's own way..." and poo poo, at some point you may as well give yourself permission to be an airhead, see the odds at 50/50 win/lose :v and just pick one arbitrarily, rationalize why you chose later. This would be impossible. You cannot alter the mathematical logic of the game unless you remove the player's ability to choose at the beginning.
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 17:53
|
|
|
Khanstant posted:Sometimes you will be wrong for taking the greater odds, sometimes you will be right, particularly when you only get one chance. Plus, in the back of my mind, I'd always be like "okay, obviously production knows about this common trivia thing like I do, so maybe they're deliberately doing the opposite of the right thing, since that would be more dramatic probably... but what if production knew I'd know it and think that and they play it straight and that'd be dramatic in it's own way..." and poo poo, at some point you may as well give yourself permission to be an airhead, see the odds at 50/50 win/lose :v and just pick one arbitrarily, rationalize why you chose later. I view it sort of like playing blackjack at a casino. You'll get the players at the table who are upset that you hit when the book says you're not supposed to, and/or "took their card" or something like that. Yes, maybe it was the incorrect decision from the perspective of mathematical probabilities, but there are no guarantees and going against the odds sometimes works and sometimes doesn't.
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 17:59
|
|
|
The problem people have with understanding the Monty Hall Problem is that a 2/3 chance to win is still a 1/3 chance to lose and an individual isn't going to run into the Monty Hall problem enough in their life to overcome the variance and will rely on anecdotal evidence on why their gut instinct is the best odds. In short: humans suck at understanding statistics.
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 18:04
|
|
|
blue squares posted:This would be impossible. You cannot alter the mathematical logic of the game unless you remove the player's ability to choose at the beginning. The way you alter the probabilities of the game is not giving the contestant a choice to swap if they pick wrong. Because Jeff did not explain the rules beforehand it’s possible that if Deshawn picked a skull box Jeff wouldn’t give the switch choice. He’d just make Deshawn open the box. It’s only a true Monty Hall problem if Jeff has no agency. I don’t think production would want to put their thumb on the scales to that extent, so I think it was a true Monty Hall.
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 18:12
|
|
|
With challenges, Jeff explains them thoroughly, and answers questions, they just don’t air that part. I assume the same is true about do or die.
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 18:14
|
|
|
blue squares posted:This would be impossible. You cannot alter the mathematical logic of the game unless you remove the player's ability to choose at the beginning. I'm not talking about altering the mathematical logic, just mental paranoia and paranoia-paranoia loop.
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 18:18
|
|
|
Khanstant posted:
Sorry, to be clear I am rejecting the actual logic that it becomes a 2/3 chance the switch box is correct and 1/3 the original box is instead of it just evenly distributing the odds to 50/50. I understand the logic behind it and don't care. Khanstant posted:Ah, okay that makes sense then. I'm getting my hopes up Erika makes it to the final, I'm definitely feeling she's the underdog. Excluded from PoC alliance, been scrapping along, name often thrown around and quite a few people targeting her for a while. However, my hopes being up tells me that she will almost certainly fall immediately next episode. Yeah Erika winning would be a pretty satisfying ending for me after everything she went through. Didn't her tribe even discuss throwing a challenge to vote her out pre-merge? I also might be underrating Deshawn a bit now that I think on it, maybe he should have been in the xander/erika tier but my judgement might be a bit clouded by their underdog stories.
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 18:21
|
|
|
blue squares posted:This would be impossible. You cannot alter the mathematical logic of the game unless you remove the player's ability to choose at the beginning. Even if the first choice was random, like a die roll, it's the swap choice that matters
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 18:21
|
|
|
IcePhoenix posted:Sorry, to be clear I am rejecting the actual logic that it becomes a 2/3 chance the switch box is correct and 1/3 the original box is instead of it just evenly distributing the odds to 50/50. I understand the logic behind it and don't care. she said: "yes you are." and here i am i don't see how you can understand *and* reject the logic, knowing you're always presented the option to switch
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 18:25
|
|
|
I like the 'math doesn't really apply, because Monty is there to make an entertaining game show, not a practical problem in applied mathematics' answer to the question. https://ima.org.uk/4552/dont-switch-mathematicians-answer-monty-hall-problem-wrong/ But here's a great breakdown of the original Marilyn Vos Savant solution: https://priceonomics.com/the-time-everyone-corrected-the-worlds-smartest/ Monty Hall posted:"[After I opened a door with a goat], they'd think the odds on their door had now gone up to 1 in 2, so they hated to give up the door no matter how much money I offered...The higher I got, the more [they] thought the car was behind [the other door]. I wanted to con [them] into switching there. That's the kind of thing I can do when I'm in control of the game. You may think you have probability going for you when you follow the answer in her column, but there's the psychological factor to consider."
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 18:41
|
|
|
Spokes posted:i watched it last night and said, out loud, to my wife: "someone on the internet is going to get me into an argument about this tomorrow and i'm not going to let them" Faith/superstition/religion/magical thinking basically Being charitable, there's potentially a level of self awareness involved about which way you'd punish yourself more etc
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 18:41
|
|
|
I don't know who Monty Hall is.
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 18:47
|
|
|
Spokes posted:i don't see how you can understand *and* reject the logic, knowing you're always presented the option to switch I simply reject that all of the probability shifts to one door instead of splitting equally. That's all, it's not really a large leap in logic.
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 18:48
|
|
|
You reject math you can easily prove to yourself? Is this a flat earth thing?
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 18:55
|
|
|
IcePhoenix posted:I simply reject that all of the probability shifts to one door instead of splitting equally. the easiest way to think about it is: if you always switch, that means you *win* if you initially picked a skull, and you *lose* if you initially picked fire. right? like, if math is not something you have any interest in that's okay but you don't really get to go "well, this is the answer to a fairly simple problem to me, and this is just my belief and it's equally valid" something about monty hall gives people brain worms lol
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 18:59
|
|
|
Spokes posted:i watched it last night and said, out loud, to my wife: "someone on the internet is going to get me into an argument about this tomorrow and i'm not going to let them" Yeah, I knew as soon as the Monty Hall problem came up that was all the internet was going to argue about for the next week on survivor message boards. Edit: I hope next week, Jeff plays idol in the box with two people. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UGuPvrsG3E
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 19:05
|
|
|
i think danny is a massive threat to win
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 19:06
|
|
|
Spokes posted:something about monty hall gives people brain worms lol something something don't sign your posts
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 19:07
|
|
|
STONE COLD 64 posted:i think danny is a massive threat to win It seems like nobody has beef with him, or sees him as a threat. He definitely has a good chance at making it to the final 3. But does that mean he's a massive threat to win? I'm not sure. Everyone is talking about wanting Ricard out because Ricard is the only one who has successfully made a big move. Danny has made no moves.
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 19:14
|
|
|
Yeah that's my read, Danny's a complete non-threat with enemies on the jury who people should absolutely want in the final 3.
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 19:19
|
|
|
njsykora posted:Yeah that's my read, Danny's a complete non-threat with enemies on the jury who people should absolutely want in the final 3. Yeah I don't want to call him a no/one vote finalist but after I waffled between ranking him and Deshawn together I realized I had to waffle on if I should just put him with Heather now.
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 19:23
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 20:51 |
|
|
im just saying if its down to deshawn danny and heather or even xander i wouldn't rule the guy out when nobody has any conflict with him.
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2021 19:24
|
|