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hobbesmaster posted:"Leave it up to the states" sure, but would the Mann act still outlaw going across state lines to get an abortion? IIRC, the Mann act got amended in the 1980's to replace "any immoral purpose" with "any sexual activity for which any person can be charged with a criminal offense", so crossing state lines for an abortion probably wouldn't violate the act as it's currently worded.
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Dec 1, 2021 22:39
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Beggars can't be choosers but I would love an updated OP with regards to the court at this point.
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Dec 2, 2021 03:36
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I'm so loving irritated that RBG didn't retire. Way to completely throw your legacy away over bullshit bravado.
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Dec 2, 2021 05:18
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Kirios posted:I'm so loving irritated that RBG didn't retire. Way to completely throw your legacy away over bullshit bravado. It's kind of amazing how much the whole thing has played out like the perfect classic morality tale. RBG was so ahead of her time, a real cultural icon, practically a super hero. But somewhere along the way she let it go to her head and ended up making us all victims of her hubris. I think one of the best parts of the story is when on her deathbed she told her granddaughter that it was her dying wish that her successor be chosen by the next president. I like to think that her granddaughter responded with the closest physical approximation of the Lex Luther Wrong meme.
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Dec 2, 2021 06:24
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-Blackadder- posted:It's kind of amazing how much the whole thing has played out like the perfect classic morality tale. RBG was so ahead of her time, a real cultural icon, practically a super hero. But somewhere along the way she let it go to her head and ended up making us all victims of her hubris. And now you get to watch it happen all over again with Stephen Breyer. Breyer, who watched it happen to Ginsburg practically in person, and learned no lesson from it. And now it's too late for him to retire because if he does (or dies), it will be under a Republican controlled house and senate, who will hold his seat open until a Republican president takes office and gives themselves the 7-2 court of their wildest dreams. Because he was another short-sighted legacymonger like his best friend Ruth was. nine-gear crow fucked around with this message at 08:38 on Dec 2, 2021 |
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Dec 2, 2021 08:34
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nine-gear crow posted:And now you get to watch it happen all over again with Stephen Breyer. Breyer, who watched it happen to Ginsburg practically in person, and learned no lesson from it. And now it's too late for him to retire because if he does (or dies), it will be under a Republican controlled house and senate, who will hold his seat open until a Republican president takes office and gives themselves the 7-2 court of their wildest dreams. Because he was another short-sighted legacymonger like his best friend Ruth was. I mean, it's not to late for another 11 months.
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Dec 2, 2021 08:47
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-Blackadder- posted:It's kind of amazing how much the whole thing has played out like the perfect classic morality tale. RBG was so ahead of her time, a real cultural icon, practically a super hero. But somewhere along the way she let it go to her head and ended up making us all victims of her hubris. Some of you have this funny idea that the court's liberal members consider themselves the sworn enemies of the conservatives in the same way we do. In practice what you have is the closest thing our democracy has to self-supposed philosopher kings who often unite simply to protect the power of their position, and outside of Clarence Thomas' forays into absurdism tend to all agree broadly about most issues and disagree with leftists. They don't see a looming crisis in Republican capture of the judiciary, or if they do would not threaten the status quo of their positions to speak out or do anything against it. Ginsburg and Scalia were close friends.
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Dec 2, 2021 11:22
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RBG and the Dems assumed Hillary was inevitable, which also explains why they didn't do anything meaningful over the Garland nomination. From their perspective, it only meant a few months with an empty chair before Hillary fixed eveything. But oops here we are.
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Dec 2, 2021 11:53
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Sanguinia posted:I mean, it's not to late for another 11 months. They'll find a way 
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Dec 2, 2021 15:05
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Sanguinia posted:I mean, it's not to late for another 11 months. You're talking about the same people who are fine going as slow as possible with thei Jan 6 commission knowing full well as soon as the GOP retakes the House next November that commission is not only going to end immediately but that the GOP's going to go on witch hunts against Democrats purely out of spite.
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Dec 2, 2021 15:35
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Also sucks Marshall got sick when he did. I know he was unhappy that Bush would be nominating his successor so I'm sure he would've clung to his seat if he could've. That has to be the most lopsided replacement in a bad way the court's ever had.
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Dec 2, 2021 15:40
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Groovelord Neato posted:Also sucks Marshall got sick when he did. I know he was unhappy that Bush would be nominating his successor so I'm sure he would've clung to his seat if he could've. That has to be the most lopsided replacement in a bad way the court's ever had. You mean, more lopsided than replacing RBG with an unqualified religious extremist nutjob?
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Dec 2, 2021 16:26
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morothar posted:You mean, more lopsided than replacing RBG with an unqualified religious extremist nutjob? Considering RBG wasn’t all that wonderful, yes.
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Dec 2, 2021 16:33
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morothar posted:You mean, more lopsided than replacing RBG with an unqualified religious extremist nutjob? Thurgood Marshall is a staggering figure of jurisprudence, to the point that if you had replaced him with Ginsberg it would still be a greater loss.
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Dec 2, 2021 16:36
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morothar posted:You mean, more lopsided than replacing RBG with an unqualified religious extremist nutjob? We're talking about the guy who argued Brown v Board being replaced by one of the worst modern justices.
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Dec 2, 2021 16:55
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morothar posted:You mean, more lopsided than replacing RBG with an unqualified religious extremist nutjob? Yes, because Marshall's replacement was no less an extremist nutjob even if he might not be as religiously crazy.
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Dec 2, 2021 16:59
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nine-gear crow posted:And now you get to watch it happen all over again with Stephen Breyer. Breyer, who watched it happen to Ginsburg practically in person, and learned no lesson from it. And now it's too late for him to retire because if he does (or dies), it will be under a Republican controlled house and senate, who will hold his seat open until a Republican president takes office and gives themselves the 7-2 court of their wildest dreams. Because he was another short-sighted legacymonger like his best friend Ruth was. Isn't amazing how such loving idiots are given so much control over the laws of an entire country?
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Dec 2, 2021 19:18
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So what day do they decide to pull the trigger with a decision? All I know is the oral arguments started on Wednesday, not sure how long the review process is with any SC cases.
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Dec 2, 2021 20:46
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Parrotine posted:So what day do they decide to pull the trigger with a decision? All I know is the oral arguments started on Wednesday, not sure how long the review process is with any SC cases. They’ll decide it some time between now and end of June. More complex and controversial cases take more time.
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Dec 2, 2021 20:55
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They might do so earlier then June because it's so controversial this time. I can see Roberts wanting as much time aa possible between the opinion release and the midterm elections as possible to avoid upsetting the GOP wave that'll happen from backlash to the decision
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Dec 2, 2021 21:06
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Geez, that is one hell of a time window 
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Dec 2, 2021 21:06
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Parrotine posted:Geez, that is one hell of a time window Well, you need enough time to figure out a legal way to say the thing you already were going to do regardless of the law.
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Dec 2, 2021 21:07
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This court puts off all the big ones to the last week of June, expect this then. (I don't think Roberts can set a deadline other than the end of term itself, so the dissenters could absolutely not turn in final drafts until the last day if they're also thinking time to midterms.)
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Dec 2, 2021 21:17
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Groovelord Neato posted:We're talking about the guy who argued Brown v Board being replaced by
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Dec 2, 2021 23:05
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Slaan posted:They might do so earlier then June because it's so controversial this time. I can see Roberts wanting as much time aa possible between the opinion release and the midterm elections as possible to avoid upsetting the GOP wave that'll happen from backlash to the decision I don't think this decision will matter at all for the midterms, since both sides will have their candidates pretty well locked down by June, and in any event, Roberts has also blessed enough gerrymandering that the only way the GOP wave doesn't happen is if every single GOP House candidate ends up being a homosexual satanist or something.
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Dec 2, 2021 23:14
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azflyboy posted:I don't think this decision will matter at all for the midterms, since both sides will have their candidates pretty well locked down by June, and in any event, Roberts has also blessed enough gerrymandering that the only way the GOP wave doesn't happen is if every single GOP House candidate ends up being a homosexual satanist or something. It will plausibly affect turnout. How much it will affect it remains to be seen, but it's a question of getting voters to the polls, not changing whom they vote for.
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Dec 2, 2021 23:26
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Yep. Normally minority party voters are fired up and the presidents party are complacent in midterms, leading to the presidents party losing seats just from turnout differences. But if the decision is bad enough, the single issue abortion voters may stay home in happiness and liberals get fired up. Gerrymandering will limit the effects in the House and state-level seats, but state wide democratic positions could be saved just from this. A May release v end of June could be the small difference on the margin the GOP needs to clench the predicted wave.
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Dec 2, 2021 23:31
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My understanding was that unless there's basically a blue wave, the GOP has gerrymandered enough seats that are something ridiculous like R+20 in states Texas and Florida that they retake the house almost by default, so the best the Democrats can hope for is only a mild slaughtering.
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Dec 3, 2021 03:24
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azflyboy posted:A mild slaughtering. The slaughter is going to be anything but mild. The history of 2018-present (basically the 2020 election) would have been very different had Democrats not retaken the House. There is like zero chance of them keeping it with Jim Crow 2.0 being enacted everywhere for that exact reason.
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Dec 3, 2021 03:39
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jeeves posted:The slaughter is going to be anything but mild. Actually based on Wasserman its looking more and more likely that if there is a slaughter its only going to be possible for it to be mild. https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/redistricting/biggest-victim-2021-redistricting-so-far-competition
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Dec 3, 2021 07:46
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It seems like winning on Roe will energize the R base to a degree we thought was impossible
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Dec 3, 2021 10:33
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Wang Commander posted:It seems like winning on Roe will energize the R base to a degree we thought was impossible Wasserman's timeline also has a poll that says about 20-25% of Trump's voters in key states consider themselves pro-choice. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1466539319984672768 We can't predict what will happen until it happens and the party's make their plays to steer the electorate's response.
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Dec 3, 2021 10:36
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Sanguinia posted:Wasserman's timeline also has a poll that says about 20-25% of Trump's voters in key states consider themselves pro-choice. Trump voters answer whatever to polls because they are fascists who see the institution of polling as a joke, another funny part of decadent democracy
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Dec 3, 2021 11:14
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Despite stereotypes about Republicans being poor Trump's base are well off and will know that they can travel for abortion
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Dec 3, 2021 14:21
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azflyboy posted:My understanding was that unless there's basically a blue wave, the GOP has gerrymandered enough seats that are something ridiculous like R+20 in states Texas and Florida that they retake the house almost by default, so the best the Democrats can hope for is only a mild slaughtering. After the elections last month the Republicans had something like a 10 point advantage on average. They're going to demolish the Democrats next year and at some point after that Breyer will die and hand them a 7-2 court.
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Dec 3, 2021 16:29
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Harold Fjord posted:Despite stereotypes about Republicans being poor Trump's base are well off and will know that they can travel for abortion Also, even for a middle class Alabaman, taking a trip to Virginia? Maryland? is quite a disruption compared to driving to the nearest big city. It's not just the cost, but the time. Yeah, it's accessible to them in a way it simply isn't for a min wage worker, but it's still a significant expense they don't want to incur. Whether any of this matters is a different question. Short sighted "it won't affect me" will make plenty of people who it could affect still not prioritize it over whatever their other reasons for supporting Republicans are.
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Dec 3, 2021 17:31
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Evil Fluffy posted:After the elections last month the Republicans had something like a 10 point advantage on average. They're going to demolish the Democrats next year and at some point after that Breyer will die and hand them a 7-2 court.
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Dec 3, 2021 18:45
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FlamingLiberal posted:I mean true, but at this point is there really a significant difference between a 6-3 and 7-2 court when there are 5 votes for almost anything? About the only thing it changes is you can no longer play the "sensible long-overdue reform" card because raising the number of justices to match the number of circuits no longer flips the court. You have to go full mask-off ideologically motivated court takeover. Assuming it's still legal to dissent against Republican orthodoxy at that point.
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Dec 3, 2021 19:14
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I hate how I'm seeing lots of articles and posts now about how women are on the verge of losing abortion rights. Why weren't people making this big of a deal before Trump was elected, when it actually mattered?
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Dec 3, 2021 23:35
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Crows Turn Off posted:I hate how I'm seeing lots of articles and posts now about how women are on the verge of losing abortion rights. There were a lot of people that did. I personally tried to get people to vote for Clinton exclusively because of abortion and the SCOTUS.
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Dec 3, 2021 23:39
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