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redreader posted:IDK if this is the right thread for this. but: Could the Democratic party, who controls all 3 branches of the government They don't. They have an extremely razor thin control of 1, for some issues but not all, and full control of a second, and not at all the third. quote:pass a law to make abortion legal in all states? They could, but they'd need: 1) 50 senate votes to abolish the fillibuster, which they don't have AND 2) 50 votes to codify Roe(a right to privacy) and remove the near-bans, which they don't have because several dems are basically Republicans or afraid of losing their seat. OR 3) 60 votes in the senate, which they super don't have.
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Dec 2, 2021 20:07
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Mellow Seas posted:To be clear, it's been eight years since they reached that conclusion post-Romney, and we still don't know if that conclusion was wrong*. What do they have to show so far? Two presidential elections where they've lost the popular vote, and very mixed results at the congressional level that currently have them shut out of power (and however much the Democrats are doing badly at exercising their power, at least they have it.) Idk, the GOP certainly seemed to have a good showing in November, but I don't know if that's a genuine swing or GOP voters being literally mad at everything in life all the time and crawling over glass to vote, and Dems and Lefties being discouraged from voting due to complete loving nothing from a party that controls the government, but lets 6 dipshits dictate government policy rather than just add more dipshits that side with them TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 20:17 on Dec 2, 2021 |
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Dec 2, 2021 20:09
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Baronash posted:I'm sorry, what? Link Link Link Link Also just a giant  because Friendbot said earlier this year that Youngkin could never win VA, and, welp...
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Dec 2, 2021 20:10
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I'm cool with assholes who want to get 'good things' passed forcing the hand of those who only play lip service to those 'good things'. I probably wasn't going to get the good things in the first place but now I know who actually would stand with me. Good yo know who your real allies are and whatnot.
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Dec 2, 2021 20:14
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World Famous W posted:I'm cool with assholes who want to get 'good things' passed forcing the hand of those who only play lip service to those 'good things'. I probably wasn't going to get the good things in the first place but now I know who actually would stand with me. Good yo know who your real allies are and whatnot. Exactly. Dude was going to crash and burn either way, and RTW repeal wasn't getting passed no matter what given the politics of the other reps. At least now people can hopefully look past the bullshit and see who their real allies are and who is against them or just too poisoned by an expectation of absolute decorum to get anything helpful done. Diagnosing the problem is important to fixing it, after all. And if the goal is to turn a legislature blue (and not in the "but really i'm a 90's Republican" sort of way) then you need to know who's actually on your side and who isn't. Carter was probably a massive rear end in a top hat, but he made the right call in that situation and got hosed over for it (and again i'll point out that he did it by doing the exact same brand of procedural fuckery that had been repeatedly done to him in the first place. And on top of that they were openly about to do the same thing again before he cut them off and forced the issue. For people on here to ignore or give a free pass to that hypocrisy is surprising.) due to his bad attitude. Archonex fucked around with this message at 20:34 on Dec 2, 2021 |
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Dec 2, 2021 20:18
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NYT Interview with a Democratic pollster about problems in Virginia specifically, but most are applicable nationwide. The pollster and focus group were both commissioned by Third Way, but still has a lot of interesting insights. This was a summary of his memo: quote:Our weak national brand left us vulnerable. The interview: quote:What was the first thing you told your partners after you got done with the groups — what was your big takeaway? The most surprising thing to me is that people think that paid leave, free college, and childcare are "distractions from fixing the economy." The not surprising, but disappointing, thing to me is that voters seem to think the Republican description of CRT/Education problems is the Democratic position and actually happening in schools. Edit: Other surprising thing is that apparently nobody remembers anything from the Trump or Biden stimulus bills. They forgot about the checks, expanded unemployment, etc under both Trump and Biden. Not surprising takeaway is that people think that a politician with the same policies as Trump who supports Trump actually has very different policies from Trump because he speaks softly and wears a sweater. Personal appeal and narrative are important. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/02/us/politics/midterm-election-polls.html Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 20:39 on Dec 2, 2021 |
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Dec 2, 2021 20:21
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quote:Voters believe the economy is bad, and no amount of stats can change their mind (at least in the short term).
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Dec 2, 2021 20:31
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:NYT Interview with a Democratic pollster about problems in Virginia specifically, but most are applicable nationwide. Jesus loving Christ, this is all so god damned stupid. I'm not suggesting that the Democrats don't have to do something about it rather than complaining, but I'm just a guy on a dead comedy forum so I'm going to complain. Since when are "help wanted" signs a signal of a bad economy???? 90% of loving economic policy over my entire loving lifetime has been about getting there to be more "help wanted" signs! JOBS JOBS JOBS, right? What the actual gently caress is going on? I think people just feel like absolute poo poo and we're blaming it on "the economy" when it's actually our rotten culture and a deadly disease that are ruining our lives, not "the economy", but our political culture has given us no way to say "everybody sucks, everything sucks and I'm afraid of dying" except "the economy is bad."
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Dec 2, 2021 20:34
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World Famous W posted:I'm cool with assholes who want to get 'good things' passed forcing the hand of those who only play lip service to those 'good things'. I probably wasn't going to get the good things in the first place but now I know who actually would stand with me. Good yo know who your real allies are and whatnot.  this is why having those kinds of votes is a good thing.Also reminded of the vote for a livable minimum wage. After all, there were dem senators besides Manchin and Sinema that happily voted no for that, and we'd have a harder time seeing their true colors if that vote wasn't held.
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Dec 2, 2021 20:36
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The not surprising, but disappointing, thing to me is that voters seem to think the Republican description of CRT/Education problems is the Democratic position and actually happening in schools Yeah they have 24/7 networks saying this on 3 channels and dems have literally no coherent messaging strategy on anything, let alone schools.
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Dec 2, 2021 20:43
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Mellow Seas posted:Jesus loving Christ, this is all so god damned stupid. I'm not suggesting that the Democrats don't have to do something about it rather than complaining, but I'm just a guy on a dead comedy forum so I'm going to complain. Since when are "help wanted" signs a signal of a bad economy???? 90% of loving economic policy over my entire loving lifetime has been about getting there to be more "help wanted" signs! JOBS JOBS JOBS, right? What the actual gently caress is going on? Exposure to voters can be hazardous to your mental health. Your getting regurgitated propaganda from big money who think full employment is bad because it causes wage growth and inflation. This puts the squeeze on holders of dollar denominated debt and employers. Money and talk tv presents the economy as it looks to these people and without consciousness of their own class people just lock onto what they say when forming opinions. The average Joe benefits from gradual inflation because his debts become effectively smaller while his small number of assets grow in value. It rocks banks and some rich people because they are owed more than they owe. Major employers see payroll costs spike as workers ask for more while imports also increase in relative cost. Remember the income productivity chart? Your about to see line two coming up while line one flattens out.
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Dec 2, 2021 20:46
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So what is the actual strategy for fighting CRT messaging? Everybody's proposed strategies are conflicting with everybody else's proposed strategies. All we really know is what McAuliffe did didn't work. Like, don't say "parents don't get to decide". Have we learned anything else? Do we point out that they're lying out of their asses about K-12 education? Do we point out that systemic racism, with historical roots, actually is a huge problem? Do we call the attacks racist or try to handle them with a softer touch? What do we doooo? To what extent is "hey, white people - black people exist, and think they are just as good as you!" just a magic button Republicans can press whenever they want to siphon off 5-10% of voters? e: Barrel Cactaur posted:Exposure to voters can be hazardous to your mental health. Your getting regurgitated propaganda from big money who think full employment is bad because it causes wage growth and inflation. This puts the squeeze on holders of dollar denominated debt and employers. Money and talk tv presents the economy as it looks to these people and without consciousness of their own class people just lock onto what they say when forming opinions. The average Joe benefits from gradual inflation because his debts become effectively smaller while his small number of assets grow in value. It rocks banks and some rich people because they are owed more than they owe. Major employers see payroll costs spike as workers ask for more while imports also increase in relative cost. Yes, it causes short term pain for some people - like Willa has pointed out, if you have an 11% average wage growth for the poorest Americans, that's still just an average, meaning plenty of vulnerable people haven't gotten a raise while their prices go up. That sucks. But it is possible to vastly overreact, especially when the cause of prices rising isn't as difficult to figure out as it was in the '70s or nearly as out-of-control as it was in Weimar, Brazil, Zimbabwe etc. Meanwhile nobody talks about the deflationary economic panics that happened every 10 years in the 19th century before we had Federal Reserve banking. Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 20:58 on Dec 2, 2021 |
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Dec 2, 2021 20:48
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Mellow Seas posted:So what is the actual strategy for fighting CRT messaging? Everybody's proposed strategies are conflicting with everybody else's proposed strategies. All we really know is what McAuliffe did didn't work. Like, don't say "parents don't get to decide". Have we learned anything else? Do we point out that they're lying out of their asses about K-12 education? Do we point out that systemic racism, with historical roots, actually is a huge problem? Do we call the attacks racist or try to handle them with a softer touch? What do we doooo? Blow it off and pivot to the good things you're doing. It's too hard to explain that CRT isn't even a real thing(in public schools), and the people mad about it know that already. The subtext is "I have to feel bad about being white and I don't like that" which works on liberal whites almost as good as conservative whites. You don't need to even directly address it, you can just talk about the positive policy you have with regards to education. The problem is that Democrats have no coherent messaging strategy and nothing positive to point to. So like idiots they just say "nuh uh" or worse. edit: Politics these days is a game of voter enthusiasm. For better or for worse, you need to have a fired up base to win or you lose, as TMac proved. Just saying "the other guy is worse" isn't enough to get turnout, because the other guy is just slamming hotbutton issues and saying he'll fix them. That's the thing, Democrats don't even have to DO the things they say they will, and they probably won't. But they're so bad at this right now they're not even bothering to pretend to try. Jaxyon fucked around with this message at 21:00 on Dec 2, 2021 |
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Dec 2, 2021 20:54
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Is there ever a "good" way to tell someone that they have benefitted from racism sometimes (or all the time)? Or that their ancestors might have been assholes? Aside from just saying that you want education to focus on the truth and not be "politicized," which is tricky and could easily blow back on you, I'm not sure what else you can say.
Eric Cantonese fucked around with this message at 21:03 on Dec 2, 2021 |
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Dec 2, 2021 21:01
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Part of the problem with CRT panic is that it's a deliberately nebulous term, it can mean everything and nothing all at once. CRT is whatever they want it to be to suit their position. So, I dunno, maybe try pinning them down on some specifics? Like get them to admit that they don't want to teach kids that slavery is bad? Of course like any strategy it has a pretty good chance of backfiring. I agree with Jaxyon, I think it's an issue where the best move is to simply not play.
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Dec 2, 2021 21:05
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Eric Cantonese posted:Is there ever a "good" way to tell someone that they have benefitted from racism sometimes (or all the time)? Or that their ancestors might have been assholes? Aside from just saying that you want education to focus on the truth and not be "politicized," which is tricky and could easily blow back on you, I'm not sure what else you can say. No, because of white fragility. It's a thing that everyone but white people know, and most white people don't ever want to hear or address. Even the ones who claim to be allies. That's why it's important to be anti-racist, rather than just not-racist. But you're correct that it's very hard for a politician to thread the needle on, especially since a lot of them directly benefit from white supremacy and aren't good allies or allies at all. In the strict cuthroat political sense, the tactic here is to pivot. But you have to have something to pivot to.
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Dec 2, 2021 21:06
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CRT as invoked by republicans is basically the same as when they'd yell about "political correctness" except now it's exclusively about schools. I feel like the only surefire way to not lose is to not play; if you're explaining, you're losing. Even responses that could possibly work still have a chance of misfiring.
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Dec 2, 2021 21:09
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Mellow Seas posted:Yeah it's very irritating because inflation has gotten a bad rap because of 20th century instances of hyperinflation, which were very bad, and the '70s stagflation more recently - which does not actually particularly resemble our current situation, because inflation is actually much lower than it was then (so far), and the economy isn't stagnant. The Q3 YOY growth rate was what, loving 8%? Creditors and their allies have done a great job convincing people that inflation is a great enemy, caused by a profligate government, when it's actually just a normal reaction to (A) supply shocks and (B) an economy that is doing well with low unemployment and high wage growth. Long-term, consistent, and moderate (~3%) inflation is good for debtors and people on the lower end of the wage spectrum. But, the inflation we've had now is short-term, inconsistent, and rapid (~6%). That type of inflation may or may not have the equivalent long-term impact on wages as normal inflation from monetary policy, but it does have the negative short-term impact on prices. This specific inflation is not something you can (or should) try to convince people is "good" inflation. But, you are right that people have warped ideas about inflation in general because of the Weimar Republic and Zimbabwe, even though deflation is objectively worse for everyone except creditors and people with large amounts of liquid capital. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 21:15 on Dec 2, 2021 |
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Dec 2, 2021 21:10
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Srice posted:CRT as invoked by republicans is basically the same as when they'd yell about "political correctness" except now it's exclusively about schools. A frank question of "Why are you letting these two faced Republicans manipulate you like this?" could also be devastating if approached right. Point out that these people are trying to trick you into voting for them by manipulating your feelings and that they don't even have or have suggested any policy that benefits you in a material way. Go on to question whether someone who lies to your face about things like CRT can be trusted with power over others and so on and so forth. This requires a level of frankness and bluntness that most politicians and pundits would never express however. Doubly so in the case of establishment democrats, since it requires directly confronting and picking a fight with Republicans who aren't playing by the spirit of the rules when it comes to our democracy.
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Dec 2, 2021 21:11
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You can't respond to CRT as if it is legitimate. You can simply respond by saying "I believe that teachers and parents can handle teaching between themselves, and we don't need the republican party deciding school curriculum."
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Dec 2, 2021 21:14
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:But, the inflation we've had now is short-term, inconsistent, and rapid (~6%). That type of inflation may or may not have the equivalent long-term impact on wages as normal inflation from monetary policy, but it does have the negative short-term impact on prices. Re: CRT, I really don't think "pivot and talk about something else" is an option at all. Republicans will just keep talking about it and it will keep being effective. Not talking about it will be seen as evasiveness or duplicity. You absolutely have to say something. The two posts above this one aren't bad frameworks to start from, IMO. "Parents and teachers" is a great phrase to use; reinforce the idea that they work together to educate children (which is true!) And use the phrase "content of their character" a whole bunch, the type of people who are pretty racist but also 100% sure they're not racist eat that poo poo up. Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 21:25 on Dec 2, 2021 |
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Dec 2, 2021 21:20
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Yeah re: CRT, at this point they'll just pull something out of their rear end to defend it even if you call them on it.
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Dec 2, 2021 21:25
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Mellow Seas posted:Re: CRT, I really don't think "pivot and talk about something else" is an option at all. Republicans will just keep talking about it and it will keep being effective. Not talking about it will be seen as evasiveness or duplicity. You absolutely have to say something. The two posts above this one aren't bad frameworks to start from, IMO. The above is a pivot to an attack, which also works. The point is, explaining the issue will do nothing and responded to loaded arguments as if they were in good faith does nothing. The conservatives know the subtext here and actually talking about the textual disagreement is useless and naive. White conservatives aren't freaked out about a legal review framework taught at the graduate level. They want to revise history so that white people don't feel bad. That's what they're using anti-CRT laws for, and always were. And being mad that history is being taught accurately in schools is not a new thing for US conservatives. Or US political discourse. You can pivot over to "here's how we are going to make education better, rather than just letting angry republicans run poo poo", but you have to, you know, have an idea of what you going to do and be able to message it. Which the dems largely don't.
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Dec 2, 2021 21:25
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:NYT Interview with a Democratic pollster about problems in Virginia specifically, but most are applicable nationwide. … …anyway, lesson learned, it’s time to focus more on
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Dec 2, 2021 21:27
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AmiYumi posted:So, even when capable of recognizing that there is a problem, they still think the problem is that voters are dummy dumb stupid-heads who believe their lying eyes over all the things Team D has done for the economy, such as It's not the fault of the people who ran the focus group that the people in the focus group said dumb things that made no sense and don't reflect reality. Finding out what you can do to change their minds means starting from where they're at. Sometimes that means an actual policy solution, sometimes it's just about messaging. I don't think anybody involved suggested "well Democrats don't have to do anything, voters are just stupid!" Barrel Cactaur posted:Exposure to voters can be hazardous to your mental health.
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Dec 2, 2021 21:33
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"CRT will never be taught in primary schools as long as I'm _____" It's both easy and true.
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Dec 2, 2021 21:38
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The "good" thing about the CRT issue (according to that focus group) is that while people thought the Republican description of CRT was real, happening, and the Democratic position, that the CRT issue was just a part of the overall frustration about "education" issues. The main thing people were really upset about were school closings and feeling like Democrats valued the teachers unions, government, and vague notions of public health over the hardships of parents and kids being out of school for a year. Combined with uncertainty about school policies on in-person learning, masks, quarantining, etc. and how they were constantly changing. That is an issue that will partly go away on its own and can be mediated by showing compassion for how hard it was and emphasizing what to do with schools going forward. T-Mac gave himself a massive self-own with his gaffe that won't be an issue for everyone. The bad thing is that while many of those issues will go away on their own, they might not by 2022. And you still need to shootdown/have responses to the various other "real" education issues that are going to be political issues going forward - like trans kids, curriculum, standardized testing, math/finance/reading/art skills and funding, etc. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 21:41 on Dec 2, 2021 |
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Dec 2, 2021 21:39
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Cranappleberry posted:"CRT will never be taught in primary schools as long as I'm _____" Oh neat somebody is suggesting we adopt white supremacist messaging again. Sounds about white.
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Dec 2, 2021 22:00
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:NYT Interview with a Democratic pollster about problems in Virginia specifically, but most are applicable nationwide. Yeah, we discussed this focus group in the succ thread last week after the wapo ran a story on it; my response was: Willa Rogers posted:idiots still think it's about messaging instead of about doing: And of course people think that Dems' cheap talk about paid leave, free college & childcare aren't as important as fixing the economy, given that none of those things are coming anywhere near what Dems promised they'd be & instead are means-tested pieces of crap that'll take years to assemble the mechanics of administering if they happen at all. Meanwhile, in the voters' real world:  eta: World Famous W posted:Poor people don't care some number on some chart is going up as long as they remain poor, loving shocking No, you see: They should be grateful that they're making $11/hour instead of $10/hour & that consumer confidence (among richer people) is super-super-high! etaa: Barrel Cactaur posted:The average Joe benefits from gradual inflation because his debts become effectively smaller while his small number of assets grow in value. See, this is the sort of thinking that ends up blowing up in Democrats' faces. It's the same bullshit we've heard from Krugman, Irwin and itt (rather, its predecessor) about how the lucky duckies need to trust the eggheads, not their own lying eyes, or they're being irrational chuds, not poor people who are desperately trying to meet their basic needs. vvv My point was that they see those programs sidelined or cut to the bone & are more concerned with the economics of their everyday lives. They also tune out the ongoing deets of legislative stasis. They need help now not just "branding" of political bullshit that may or may not come to pass in several years. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 22:14 on Dec 2, 2021 |
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Dec 2, 2021 22:02
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Willa Rogers posted:Yeah, we discussed this focus group in the succ thread last week after the wapo ran a story on it; my response was: I agree with most of your overall point, but literally nobody in that focus group has done a detailed analysis about the potential paid leave plans and decided to volunteer the opinion that they are a "distraction" from the economy because of the mechanics of program administration in 2027 and means-testing. That is definitely you putting your own perception into that.
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Dec 2, 2021 22:09
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Sarcastr0 posted:No, I'm not saying events surely would have turned out differently, only that you don't know they wouldn't have. Agreed. Sometimes I think about how the Democrats might have supported left-wing legislation if only Bernie had tried praying outside of his colleagues' offices. But he didn't do that, and now we'll never know what could have been.
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Dec 2, 2021 22:11
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Jaxyon posted:Oh neat somebody is suggesting we adopt white supremacist messaging again. Don't assume my or anyone else's race, please. CRT is not taught in primary schools. It's taught in sociology, psychology and law classes. It's good but since the term has been misappropriated and other messaging failed, lean into the blunt truth. You know what is taught in primary schools? You know what's being targeted? The already poor explanation that is given for bigotry. Also reading materials. Sometimes it's glossed over entirely. In some cases the material is outright lies. That's going to become more normalized amd gone are the conservative judges that believe in law and facts and are willing to step in like in the case of Intelligent Design.
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Dec 2, 2021 22:15
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Mellow Seas posted:\/\/\/\/\/\/ It's an open question. They have not yet proven that their strategy is effective. They still need to actually win in 2022 and '24, not just look like they're going to, and they need to avoid widespread civil unrest as they cement their power, which the summer of 2020 suggests will not be easy. They let the unrest go in 2020 to make Dems look bad. If it were happening in a way that threatened them directly instead of embarrassing Dem mayors they'd have used VX instead of CS and 85% of Americans would've cheered it on.
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Dec 2, 2021 22:17
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Cranappleberry posted:Don't assume my or anyone else's race, please. "CRT" for Republicans includes any history books covering The Civil War, Civil Rights Movement, Jim Crow, KKK, etc. So no, not just law, sociology, and psych.
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Dec 2, 2021 22:18
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Cranappleberry posted:Don't assume my or anyone else's race, please. The white supremacists know it's not taught in primary schools. That's not what they're talking about. Adopting the talking points of white supremacists is dangerous and stupid.
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Dec 2, 2021 22:20
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Willa Rogers posted:See, this is the sort of thinking that ends up blowing up in Democrats' faces. It's the same bullshit we've heard from Krugman, Irwin and itt (rather, its predecessor) about how the lucky duckies need to trust the eggheads, not their own lying eyes, or they're being irrational chuds, not poor people who are desperately trying to meet their basic needs. Very true, the average is not the individual. I must admit I'm in a bit of a bubble on public perception on this. Inflation is eventually good for many. But the spike is going to hurt a lot of people and I have no idea how to fix that fast when we have the slow walk going. The only halfway loud economic message right now is the very racist ones which is also bad. Add to that we still have the income trap at the bottom and those numbers are locked in solid as part of means testing being a loaded gun pointed directly at the foot.
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Dec 2, 2021 22:23
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Ytlaya posted:Agreed. Sometimes I think about how the Democrats might have supported left-wing legislation if only Bernie had tried praying outside of his colleagues' offices. But he didn't do that, and now we'll never know what could have been. Not at all what I said, but this is a delicious strawman! It's not that soft power works every time, it's that it sometimes works. Being an rear end in a top hat means you cut off that possibility. I don't know the VA legislature too well, but I get the impression the issue is not Manchin/Sinema/fillibuster. So you have more flexibility to at least try there. I also see a contradiction in this narrative - if the federal Dems are not convincible, why do so many on here keep yelling at Biden like they are, and it's his fault they aren't?
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Dec 2, 2021 22:25
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Wrong htread
Dog King fucked around with this message at 22:33 on Dec 2, 2021 |
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Dec 2, 2021 22:30
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Dog King posted:Serious question: what is the point of masks now? They made sense flattening the curve, but now that we have a vaccine, why? Isn't COVID not going to stop until we get herd immunity, whether that's through vaccine or previous infection? Aren't masks just prolonging the epidemic so all the variants can emerge? Defense in depth, It adds a huge risk reduction on top of the vaccine, also tons of people are still unvaccinated and can give it to you. We don't want a vaccine evading strain to emerge and spread, and no masks could contribute to that. Breakthrough infections present a risk of that, as well as letting it jump back into pockets of people who can't get vaccinated like the immune suppressed. The mask thing is a shibboleth for right wing pseudo-libertarianism anyway. Though a lot of people also don't seem to know how to wear them, or haven't been able to work around glasses and such with sports goggles and the like.
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Dec 2, 2021 22:39
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:NYT Interview with a Democratic pollster about problems in Virginia specifically, but most are applicable nationwide. quote:Our weak national brand left us vulnerable. Voters don't actually know anything about anything at all and vote based on vague, hand-wavey impressions of candidates where Trumpism is ok as long as it's being spoken in a soothing tone. The whole system is a loving joke predicated on rationality and awareness that does not in exist in the majority of the population.
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Dec 2, 2021 22:40
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