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IcePhoenix posted:I simply reject that all of the probability shifts to one door instead of splitting equally.
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Dec 2, 2021 20:06
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oh hey is that the mortal kombat blood code for genesis? or the level skip code for Aladdin I can't remember they were both similar I don't know why you're bringing up old genesis games in survivor chat though
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Dec 2, 2021 20:10
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The Monty Hall Problem Problem is about how many posts about the Monty Hall Problem get made whenever it's brought up. Anyhow the good example of the monty hall problem is when you use a million doors as an example but i got top 5 recap videos to watch.
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Dec 2, 2021 20:17
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IcePhoenix posted:I simply reject that all of the probability shifts to one door instead of splitting equally. The reason why the odds are better to switch boil down to that "Monty" knows which door is the winning door and the winning door will never be the 1st door that is opened. There's really no argument here though, unless you bury your head in the sand and ignore basic logic. You can even see it in action because it's an easy logic thing to program, many websites have a Monty Hall program to play with! https://www.rossmanchance.com/applets/2021/montyhall/Monty.html
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Dec 2, 2021 20:26
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Next season on survivor: plane on a treadmill .999999999999… = 1
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Dec 2, 2021 20:28
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IcePhoenix posted:Sorry, to be clear I am rejecting the actual logic that it becomes a 2/3 chance the switch box is correct and 1/3 the original box is Lol, I actually wasn't quite understanding until I read this description. You made it make perfect sense for me. code:Brass fucked around with this message at 20:40 on Dec 2, 2021 |
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Dec 2, 2021 20:31
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Monty hall problem would have been better if it was a team game and Xander is desperately trying to explain statistics to Deshawn.
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Dec 2, 2021 20:33
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Brass posted:Lol, I actually wasn't quite understanding until I read this description. You made it make perfect sense for me.  nexous posted:Monty hall problem would have been better if it was a team game and Xander is desperately trying to explain statistics to Deshawn. Now I'm just sad we didn't get this
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Dec 2, 2021 20:39
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nexous posted:Next season on survivor: PEMDAS e: also, say they have tribal council every other day and argue about how many are in a week Spokes fucked around with this message at 21:09 on Dec 2, 2021 |
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Dec 2, 2021 20:43
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My own opinion about the Monty Hall problem is that there was a ZER0% chance he was going to pick the wrong one because production made it obvious to him somehow which one was correct. It was all a scam to make the season seem more exciting than it really is. If he ended up going home (lol imagine if he actually chose to switch but lost) then I imagine the reaction would be pretty bad esp after the "u won lol jk" hourglass twist. Math on that one nerds.
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Dec 2, 2021 20:55
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Brass posted:My own opinion about the Monty Hall problem is that there was a ZER0% chance he was going to pick the wrong one because production made it obvious to him somehow which one was correct. this seems correct tbh. i'm becoming a full-on blackpilled survivor conspiracy theorist
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Dec 2, 2021 20:57
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STONE COLD 64 posted:im halfway through the newest Australian Survivor season and these players are just an entirely different level of cutthroat, man what a season. i have zero idea how george has made it to merge. It really just blows US Survivor out of the water on basically every level. The longer run time allows for the sob stories etc, but you still actually see some actual Survivor in Survivor.
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Dec 2, 2021 20:57
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IcePhoenix posted:oh hey is that the mortal kombat blood code for genesis? No, it's a visual representation of the math you claim doesn't exist. The Mortal Kombat 'code of honor' was ABACABB.
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Dec 2, 2021 20:58
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TheCenturion posted:No, it's a visual representation of the math you claim doesn't exist. 
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Dec 2, 2021 22:02
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Septimius posted:It really just blows US Survivor out of the water on basically every level. The longer run time allows for the sob stories etc, but you still actually see some actual Survivor in Survivor. having just finished it, yeah that was an insane season and is worth watching for anyone on the fence. everyone on that cast absolutely came to play.
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Dec 2, 2021 22:24
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Lumping Monty's door choice together and why that's ok but not the contestant's is why this problem is always such a bad post magnet.
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Dec 2, 2021 22:47
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Eh, I just figured Do or Die would be a fire making challenge, a timed puzzle or something big, not just “pick a box and hope you guessed right”.
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Dec 3, 2021 00:03
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STONE COLD 64 posted:i think danny is a massive threat to win I just don't see it unless he plays super hard and is sitting beside exactly Deshawn and Heather. Just too passive for too long to beat the other 3 who have been making a case basically the entire merge and Ricard even before then.
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Dec 3, 2021 00:05
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Quote not edit
IcePhoenix fucked around with this message at 00:08 on Dec 3, 2021 |
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Dec 3, 2021 00:05
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freeman posted:I just don't see it unless he plays super hard and is sitting beside exactly Deshawn and Heather. Just too passive for too long to beat the other 3 who have been making a case basically the entire merge and Ricard even before then. I think he might have a better shot againt Xander or Erika than Deshawn. I don't think enough people would buy him being the dominant agent in their moves Silly Burrito posted:Eh, I just figured Do or Die would be a fire making challenge, a timed puzzle or something big, not just “pick a box and hope you guessed right”. Jeff explicitly said it would be a game of chance
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Dec 3, 2021 00:08
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I’m gonna get paramount plus and watch some Australian survivor. Of the seasons available, which should I start with? Keep in mind I am skeptical about the length so I want to watch one that convinces me that it’s worth all that time, so recommend the best rather than just saying to start with the earliest and watch them all Thanks!
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Dec 3, 2021 00:15
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All I know is I never want to play board games with any of you.
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Dec 3, 2021 00:15
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blue squares posted:I’m gonna get paramount plus and watch some Australian survivor. Of the seasons available, which should I start with? Keep in mind I am skeptical about the length so I want to watch one that convinces me that it’s worth all that time, so recommend the best rather than just saying to start with the earliest and watch them all Both the episodes and seasons are longer than you're used to. I watched season from 2016, and was so exhausted that when my favorite player was eliminated, I skipped straight to the season finale, and that was episode 26.
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Dec 3, 2021 00:42
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Really emotional show. Danny's talk about his father really hit me deep. Like my father is alive, he's just lame and one of the most depressed people on earth but doesn't know it, but that still got me. I was really worried that meant he was getting voted off and was so glad when he got immunity. I've liked Danny in general, yeah he's not playing an A psychological game, but I've enjoyed the style of play he has, and also there was that time that someone just completely sucked and he came over and said the "we win as a team and lose as a team" thing that you honestly don't hear often outside of sports that also was really appealing to me. I really enjoyed tribal. We do a lot of anti-racism training at my job and I feel like things were summed up better than some trainings I've attended. It was sad someone had to go. I misheard the do or die gimmick at first, it's better odds than shot in the dark. I could see someone on the bottom throwing for a better shot at immunity plus getting to keep their vote. STONE COLD 64 posted:in awful survivor if you open the die box i kill you for real. Rest in loving peace to the unlucky poster. I don't think I'd ever have time to do it and anyway discord gives me anxiety just chatting on it normal but of ways to go this might be appropriate. Killed by Stone Cold while playing Survivor on the internet. If you can mix basketball in somehow...
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Dec 3, 2021 00:50
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The race talk was great, and really a good response to the "I hate the show getting political" or "these black players are making it about race" type stuff I've seen from a lot of fans in response to this season and the last of BB. People are gonna do that dismissive "cure racism" thing but I think the resonating point was Xander and Heather admitting that they were completely clueless to the dynamics and stuff going on. And Xander put it well. He just has the privilege of not noticing. He never would have found himself in a position where he was looking around and realizing that four people like him who represent millions could do something that's never been done before and get further than anyone like them had gotten. He never would have had to wrestle the emotional conflict of doing what's best for his game or what's best for his culture. And he recognized and owned that and I think that gets to the heart of a lot of those negative responses fans have had to this stuff. They don't want to talk about it or see it because they don't have to. But the players are real people and its real life to them and they do. And I agree that I don't think Shan was being petty. I think she was wrestling with all of that the same way Deshawn and Liana were. For her it had been a day or two since she learned Deshawn was betraying her, betrayed him to Ricard, and got betrayed by Ricard. It would have been perfectly reasonable for her to assume Deshawn orchestrated it all, so from her perspective seeing him cry about it had to be weird and maybe bothersome. But they all worked through it and figured out what was going on and there was a lot there. And Shan seemed much more at peace and cool with everything by the end. She's also alone in jury at that stage and has no context or anyone talk it out with so like.. .what can you do? I'm impressed Ricard survived this week and I definitely underestimated that four's willingness to stick together. I wonder how long it will last and how much that screwy twist had to do with it. I could definitely see Ricard going next week and I'd still maybe think that goes back to him cutting off his #1 ally. But he survived this week so I'll give him credit for selling that this was a side flip and not just a resume builder. STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 01:52 on Dec 3, 2021 |
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Dec 3, 2021 01:48
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Lianna played like doodoo but made great points on race, like when she said "being Black comes with a currency that can get you killed." She's very well-spoken and thoughtful during TC but her constantly trying to get Xander to make bad plays was so cringe lol can't believe she THOUGHT. Danny winning Immunity to honor his dad was epic, we love to see it.
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Dec 3, 2021 02:00
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I'm just glad somebody didn't go home due to one of the top 5 worst gimmicks Survivor has ever had. I think anybody not named Heather has an actual chance to win? I don't like Deshaun and Danny's chances against any of the presumed top 3, but if they're up there with Heather, maybe. Danny probably has played an underrated game, while Deshaun has slipped a bit (IMO). Erika has played a really fine low key game, although it's always hard to say whether that type of game will get recognition from the jury. The Naseer vote and Shan/Liana vote split were well finessed, but other players can lay claim to those moves as well. I also get very strong "booted before FTC" vibes from her edit. She still feels kind of like an afterthought, which is sad. It's honestly a coinflip between Ricard and Xander for me. It's an interesting contrast of circumstances: do you reward the player who's been in charge basically every step of the way, or the player who has played their way back from an almost season-long position of weakness?
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Dec 3, 2021 03:23
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It looks like to me so far the only two players who have been on the right side of every vote have been Erika and Heather. Of course, their first tribal council was the merge vote.
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Dec 3, 2021 03:31
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I think David Voce's shirt will win
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Dec 3, 2021 03:37
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Nihonniboku posted:It looks like to me so far the only two players who have been on the right side of every vote have been Erika and Heather. Of course, their first tribal council was the merge vote. When was Ricard not in the majority voting bloc?
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Dec 3, 2021 03:55
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Vernacular posted:When was Ricard not in the majority voting bloc? He voted for Evvie at the merge, but Sydney went home.
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Dec 3, 2021 03:57
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Vote splits don't count lol
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Dec 3, 2021 05:39
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Watching Shan's ponderosa video and she mentioned in the medical tent that she "never had a flare up." Does she have some sort of medical condition that wasn't really talked about that could have been a problem? e: oh jesus she talks about it later in the video, she has MS  What a freaking badass
IcePhoenix fucked around with this message at 08:17 on Dec 3, 2021 |
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Dec 3, 2021 08:15
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STONE COLD 64 posted:im just saying if its down to deshawn danny and heather or even xander i wouldn't rule the guy out when nobody has any conflict with him. For all we know, the players could get Ricard out and then all suddenly start saying "Danny is a threat!" and targeting him next.
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Dec 3, 2021 16:17
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Final three prediction: Danny, Xander, Erika. Xander wins but it’s close, Erika gets one vote (Heather).
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Dec 3, 2021 16:55
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I'm keeping my fingers crossed for Ricard. We've only had two gay winners ever, and there hasn't been one since Todd in Survivor China, season 15. Mike White and Tai are the closest who have made it since, but neither were able to pull off the win.
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Dec 3, 2021 18:10
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Final 3 prediction: Heather, Heather, Heather
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Dec 3, 2021 23:12
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I’m liking Xander but it’s gonna ruffle (or russel) some feathers if a cishet white male wins survivor: oops all minorities
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Dec 4, 2021 00:26
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nexous posted:I’m liking Xander but it’s gonna ruffle (or russel) some feathers if a cishet white male wins survivor: oops all minorities i dont think thats the name of the season
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Dec 4, 2021 00:43
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The possible pagonging of all the black players in a row could get unfortunate looking. If I were a conspiratorial watcher I'd suggest that race talk was aired to soften it.
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Dec 4, 2021 01:19
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