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Groovelord Neato posted:wages have been stagnant since before I was born You were born after 1996 or April 2021? Those were the largest periods for wage gains we've had post-WWII. I'm kidding, because your overall point is mostly right. Except for a few spurts in the late 80's, mid-90's, and this past year, real wage growth has been slow or stagnant since the mid-70's. (Edit: Oh god. I just realized that there actually is a possibility that someone born after 1996 could be in their mid-20's and posting here and now I feel the cold hand of death on my shoulder.) Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 15:50 on Dec 3, 2021 |
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Dec 3, 2021 15:46
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Willa Rogers posted:No, I also remember a few people here saying that the GOP would never run ads against the SALT break because then they'd look like hypocrites. Plus, they're the party of richies so it'd look bad to go against their own.  " for no reason. It was presented more as "a reason why this dumb thing isn't going to electorally doom Democrats". But of course we've seen over and over in the student loan debate that some people are unable to divorce the quality of a policy from its electoral impact.The GOP will attack anything and everything. I doubt SALT deductions will be the centerpiece of their 2022 campaign, but to fire off a few shitposts? Why wouldn't they? Trump lied about wanting to raise his own taxes and that played well. They know what works, and they know nobody is going to hold them to anything. e: I will say that a 2024 election in which the Republican and Democratic candidate argue about who hates billionaires more would be a nice thing for the public discourse. Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 15:54 on Dec 3, 2021 |
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Dec 3, 2021 15:48
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Mellow Seas posted:Tired of living in this fantasy world where we have to pretend the GOP is either better at paying lip service to poor Americans or electoral strategy. They are not just evil, they are also a bumbling, idiotic organization that loses half of elections to Democrats and there is nothing admirable about them, nor anything to be emulated. Are you suggesting both parties are “bumbling, idiotic organizations?” Because I’ve got a much more parsimonious interpretation that doesn’t require a rube goldberg construct of tripping over your dick into power. Said it before, and I’ll say it again: the results of a system are the intent of that system.
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Dec 3, 2021 15:49
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Remember when Tucker Carlson was going on about how he had Hunter Biden's emails and then suddenly he announced that he mailed the hard drive to himself (without making a copy) and lost it? Not surprised at Tuck's scumminess, but amused that he had the chutzpah/stupidity to swim in waters he's personally pissed in. While it's the right choice for Joe not to engage with him, it doesn't seem like it'd be much skin off the nose of Hunter or anyone else involved to say hey, remember that letter...
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Dec 3, 2021 15:54
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selec posted:Are you suggesting both parties are “bumbling, idiotic organizations?” They can be evil AND stupid.
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Dec 3, 2021 15:56
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selec posted:Are you suggesting both parties are “bumbling, idiotic organizations?” Yeah, this post kinda sums things up: FlamingLiberal posted:Yeah the SALT thing is such a bad issue for Dems. But the donors are essentially demanding it Same could be said about the end result of the ACA, votes on "defense" spending, and just about anything else that passes Congress (and, especially, stuff that doesn't pass Congress. FlamingLiberal is stating truth, but I'd like to think we wouldn't just take it lying down, and could work to change it. I just don't know how, given our current system of regulatory capture and bought-&-sold politics.
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Dec 3, 2021 15:57
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Willa Rogers posted:No, I also remember a few people here saying that the GOP would never run ads against the SALT break because then they'd look like hypocrites. Plus, the GOP is the party of richies so it'd look bad to go against their own. I feel like dems have been trying to paint republicans as hypocrites for my entire life and it has never worked. A lot of people just don't care about hypocrisy when it comes to politicians they align with! Heck, personally if someone were to try to genuinely get, say, M4A passed they could be the biggest hypocrite imaginable and I wouldn't give a poo poo.
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Dec 3, 2021 16:12
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A lot of people just don't perceive the hypocrisy because of various unstated assumptions. The "only moral abortion is mine" people 'know' that they have a good and serious reason but most people getting abortions are just lazy dumb sluts. Similarly, when they need help they are distinctly aware of their own circumstances and why they need the help but other people who need the help they 'know' are lazy or should have worked harder. The myth of individualism for thee, but not for me.
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Dec 3, 2021 16:25
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Mellow Seas posted:Why do you just make stuff up like this? (I swear to god every time somebody uses the word "assure" in D&D it's some disingenuous nonsense like this.) People said Republicans would be slow to criticize it, but not that it was a "brilliant tactical manœuver" because nobody thinks passing bad policy is brilliant. And I honestly doubt anybody "assured" you of anything.   Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Nah, the Republican party is in favor of SALT and it was a huge controversy that nearly sunk the 2017 Tax bill. The only reason they did it was because reconciliation rules required them to make up the revenue for the 10-year window if they wanted to bring the corporate and top income rates down. VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 16:29 on Dec 3, 2021 |
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Dec 3, 2021 16:27
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That seems to confirm that they will attack it no matter the angle and tailor it to the geographic area. They were blasting Gottheimer and Phil Murphy for "failing to provide needed SALT relief" when it looked like it wouldn't make it into the final bill and are now just blasting unspecified Democrats that it is in. Republican candidates in NJ, Texas, California, Illinois, Massachusetts, New York, and several other states are already running on "Dems are playing games with your SALT relief." That doesn't make SALT good policy, but it seems pretty clear that the hypocrisy charges don't matter.
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Dec 3, 2021 16:33
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-Blackadder- posted:I mean in terms of electoral strategy letting the states do it would be pretty ingenious in a couple ways. I mean, you might think it's wrong to do, but its such a great strategy though
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Dec 3, 2021 16:37
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:That seems to confirm that they will attack it no matter the angle and tailor it to the geographic area. They were blasting Gottheimer and Phil Murphy for "failing to provide needed SALT relief" when it looked like it wouldn't make it into the final bill and are now just blasting unspecified Democrats that it is in. You specifically replied to people saying the Republicans would attack Dems on it with quote "Nah the Republican party is in favor of SALT" But yes the failure of that prediction has made clear that Republicans will attack whatever and contradict themselves in front of different audiences because that works, you are absolutely right about that
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Dec 3, 2021 16:38
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The Republican party seems like it is very much against SALT deductions, considering that they instituted the lower cap just four years ago. Its ostensible purpose, to prevent a race to the bottom of states slashing programs so they can cut taxes and bring in capital, is extremely counter to Republican goals. There is no circumstance in which Republicans would not prefer an across-the-board tax cut. If you cap the amount of deductions and the the wealth of people who can claim them, then it's actually not a bad policy. All the efforts to make the policy more friendly to the middle class have been defeated within the party so far, though. \/\/\/\/\/\/\/ Honestly I doubt it matters what "powerbomb" strategy the GOP uses in 2022, they're going to win anyway because that's what our electorate reflexively does and it would've taken more than the Democrats (as currently constituted and represented) were capable of delivering to avoid that outcome. If Republicans perceive themselves as winning because they fought on the right side of the class war, they would kind of be playing themselves. Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 16:55 on Dec 3, 2021 |
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Dec 3, 2021 16:50
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VitalSigns posted:This is correct, but it is not what you said in that post. You're right. I was responding to the assumption that people were making that the Republican party was in favor of SALT caps (hence the large part of the message about the 2017 tax bill) because people didn't seem to realize or remember that. But, I also assumed that they wouldn't make it a centerpiece of 2022. I still don't think they will and a tweet a year out doesn't make it a "powerbomb through the table" on the issue, but I'm less sure now than I was before. I think the most likely scenario is that this is part of attacking the current legislative agenda item from various angles and not going to be a centerpiece of their 2022 election campaign anymore than the tweets about tree equity and other provisions in BBB are once it is a year in the mirror. I still think the 2022 GOP campaign is going to be "gas prices, out of control spending = inflation/debt, socialism, pandemic restrictions, and education issues" front and center. I'm willing to be wrong on that if they really do make SALT their central "powerbomb" strategy in the midterms. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 16:57 on Dec 3, 2021 |
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Dec 3, 2021 16:52
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Trazz posted:I just say "That's not true; are you repeating misinformation out of ignorance or are you lying to me on purpose?" Just repeat that. So interestingly enough I had a chance to talk to Fetterman last night and asked him how he'd respond to this question. His approach would be to do a quick attempt to explain that it's not a real thing; there's no program to try to brainwash kids. But then also say that kids have to learn history, and history includes the good, bad and the ugly. And the reality is that someone who continues to harp on CRT specifically as an issue probably isn't a reachable voter.
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Dec 3, 2021 17:00
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:I still think the 2022 GOP campaign is going to be "gas prices, out of control spending = inflation/debt, socialism, pandemic restrictions, and education issues" front and center. I'm willing to be wrong on that if they really do make SALT their central "powerbomb" strategy in the midterms. Do you really think gas prices & other inflation will be as bad a year from now as they are today, or bad enough for the GOP to make them a campaign issue? I mean, rent isn't likely to go down after its 18 percent hike over the last 10 months but we've been assured that once the supply chain is ironed out & petroleum reserves tapped that food & gas will drop in price. Do you think that's not the case? eta: I don't think SALT will be the centerpiece of the GOP's campaign (ads against it won't be aired in NY or CA, e.g.) but I think it'll be used strategically, given that it already is being used in some ads by GOP-aligned groups. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 17:11 on Dec 3, 2021 |
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Dec 3, 2021 17:09
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DeeplyConcerned posted:why did they decide to go this circuitous route through the states? it's basically because they didn't want to shell out for it right? It's because there's ages of precedent limiting direct federal or even state involvement with parents' raising of children, which has been applied in a bunch of settings, including education and childcare. Funding incentive programs is how the feds try to get around these issues.
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Dec 3, 2021 17:11
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peej posted:So interestingly enough I had a chance to talk to Fetterman last night and asked him how he'd respond to this question. His approach would be to do a quick attempt to explain that it's not a real thing; there's no program to try to brainwash kids. But then also say that kids have to learn history, and history includes the good, bad and the ugly.  If this is true this is the actual best loving response I've heard from a Dem politician in loving years, and this is what we need more You are not going to reach voters that are obsessed with GOP conspiracies: their brains are addled and they're too far gone. That response will win over fence sitters and parents that just heard some dumb thing and aren't sure themselves, and tangible results and actual policies that improve their lives will win over young Republicans who are in the same Generational War Job Market hell we are They haven't formed their opinions and views completely yet (again, most young Republicans are because their parents/ town are), and they are reachable through actual policies that make their lives better TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 17:23 on Dec 3, 2021 |
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Dec 3, 2021 17:14
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Willa Rogers posted:Do you really think gas prices & other inflation will be as bad a year from now as they are today, or bad enough for the GOP to make them a campaign issue? Gas collapsed in 2020 down to $1.90 because of the global shutdown. I guarantee 100% there will be ads with [Whatever the highest gas price in the country currently is] labelled BIDEN and one with "$1.90 [TRUMP or "before Biden" depending on the geographic area] even if gas is back down to a "normal" $2.80 range. The supply chain will probably be better in a year, but who knows! It seems unlikely to be completely better in 4 months when the first primaries and ads start running. That is why the "socialism/debt/reckless spending/education/shutdown reminders" blob of issues are evergreen and will be there no matter what. While, you can adjust the inflation/pandemic/economy lines as needed.
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Dec 3, 2021 17:17
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-Blackadder- posted:I mean in terms of electoral strategy letting the states do it would be pretty ingenious in a couple ways. Isn't this what they tried with the ACA as well? The Republicans didn't implement them, half assed it or changed the name (Kynect in the case of kentucky), and the dems weren't able to capitalize and ate poo poo in the midterm. In the case of Kynect, they said they dont have obamacare they have something else, even though they had the ACA. Meatball fucked around with this message at 17:33 on Dec 3, 2021 |
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Dec 3, 2021 17:17
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:You're right. I was responding to the assumption that people were making that the Republican party was in favor of SALT caps (hence the large part of the message about the 2017 tax bill) because people didn't seem to realize or remember that. But, I also assumed that they wouldn't make it a centerpiece of 2022. I still don't think they will and a tweet a year out doesn't make it a "powerbomb through the table" on the issue, but I'm less sure now than I was before. I think the most likely scenario is that this is part of attacking the current legislative agenda item from various angles and not going to be a centerpiece of their 2022 election campaign anymore than the tweets about tree equity and other provisions in BBB are once it is a year in the mirror. It's even true, they can't blame the SALT deduction on Manchin because he doesn't care about it and criticized it as a bad idea! It's only there because blue state donors to blue state house reps want it, and so when Manchin insisted on a spending cap they were willing to compromise away anything but their tax cut.
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Dec 3, 2021 17:21
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Meatball posted:Isn't this what they tried with the ACA as well? The Republicans didn't implement them, half asked it or changed the name (Kynect in the case of kentucky), and the dems weren't able to capitalize and ate poo poo in the midterm. Yeah, the House version of the ACA had a national exchange. But, (as always) the Senate got their way and implemented a worse version. The Medicaid Supreme Court decision was an uncontrollable blow, but the decision to go with the state exchanges that the Senate wanted was a stupid self-inflicted wound because red-state Senators who didn't know/care about health policy thought it would protect them from "they implemented a one-size-fits-all government system and aren't letting the states save you money by customizing local exchanges!"
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Dec 3, 2021 17:27
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Discendo Vox posted:It's because there's ages of precedent limiting direct federal or even state involvement with parents' raising of children, which has been applied in a bunch of settings, including education and childcare. Funding incentive programs is how the feds try to get around these issues. I mean private childcare exists, and the federal government can give refundable tax credits. There's no precedential or  reason why the federal government can't give people pre-paid refundable tax credits for pre-k tuition and just pay it to eligible providers directly so all parents have to do is go enroll for "free" childcare and the business takes care of all the paperwork. That's what they did with PPACA insurance. You can even give states the option to direct the program themselves but require the appropriate federal department to set up a program for any state that refuses, that way you ensure the citizens thereof still get the benefits even if their state sucks. The only reason they aren't doing this is because then all the money would have to come from the federal government and they don't want to increase the deficit or raise their donors' taxes. That's why they're going the route of PPACA's Medicaid expansion of offering the states part of the money if they put up the rest, and it has to be optional because the supreme court ruled you can't make states take part. VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 17:37 on Dec 3, 2021 |
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Dec 3, 2021 17:33
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the_steve posted:I don't think that's remotely close to the point they were trying to make. Speaking of, I made this thread, and I am looking forward for all the explanations about how the people YOU personally know are not bad people because they are not bad to you. https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3986818
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Dec 3, 2021 17:39
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The hilarious monkey's paw issue with BBB is that (for the first time in history) the Senate version of a provision is much much better than the House version. Now, you have the unique situation of hoping the Senate forces their version of SALT onto the House to produce better public policy. It's a bizarro world where the Senate is not the legislative body making changes that are non-sensical from a public policy perspective for ridiculous parochial political reasons.
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Dec 3, 2021 17:40
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I mean, if the Senate version ends up slightly better on SALT deductions it'll be because Sanders is demanding an income cap on its beneficiaries. Sanders was shafted on everything else he wanted in BBB so it's small comfort if SALT deductions are limited to "middle-class" homeowners making less than $400,000/year.
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Dec 3, 2021 17:45
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VitalSigns posted:Remember when we were assured that the SALT cap was a brilliant tactical manœuver by Democrats because for Republicans would never criticize a tax cut for billionaires or else they'd be hypocrites? No. I don't think anyone way saying this. Got a source? Willa Rogers posted:No, I also remember a few people here saying that the GOP would never run ads against the SALT break because then they'd look like hypocrites. Plus, the GOP is the party of richies so it'd look bad to go against their own. There were a few, apparently, so it should be easy. And no, that Leon Trotsky post doesn't say this. His post says that blue state Republicans are for it. Which shouldn't be surprising. I suspect SALT support is more of a high tax/low tax state issue than a red/blue one, so may not matter much to Democrats in lower tax states either. DeadlyMuffin fucked around with this message at 18:01 on Dec 3, 2021 |
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Dec 3, 2021 17:47
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Willa Rogers posted:I mean, if the Senate version ends up slightly better on SALT deductions it'll be because Sanders is demanding an income cap on its beneficiaries. Yeah. Sanders, Warren, and Wyden are the people who have been really aggressive on changing it for public policy reasons rather than just political reasons to do whatever they need to get to 50 votes. Although, the $400k limit is itself partially a political decision to keep Biden's "no tax increases on a middle class family where each member makes $199,999" pledge. There are other Senators who don't care about it or oppose it, but not enough to do anything to upset their colleagues who want it. Especially since the SALT money is "free" because of accounting gimmicks and not threatening their personal projects (but, you can't use those accounting gimmicks to lift the SALT cap a smaller amount and spend money on something else for... reasons.) Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 17:56 on Dec 3, 2021 |
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Dec 3, 2021 17:54
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The hilarious monkey's paw issue with BBB is that (for the first time in history) the Senate version of a provision is much much better than the House version. Yeah I think it's a weird situation where the benefit is so narrow that the people who want it are concentrated into a few wealthy House districts in a few states and therefore they have more influence over the reps for those districts than the senator of the entire state, and the people who do have influence over the senator don't care. Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk don't give a gently caress, SALT isn't why they pay zero taxes, when they're calling up Schumer or Feinstein or Manchin or whoever it's to kill wealth taxes and corporate taxes. So you end up with just the millionaire HENRY strivers in Pelosi or Spanberger's district calling them up and demanding tax breaks for them because it's not fair that billionaires get theirs and a lowly millionaire just can't get access to a senator anymore
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Dec 3, 2021 17:54
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I think people generally take the "Sinema is an attention seeking drama queen who just loves to be so OMG random and quirky when she takes joy at ruining things and being obstinate for the sake of obstinance in public as much as possible" meme too seriously. But, now I feel like I have to own up that they may have been more on-point than I thought. (The ringtone thing is not a joke) https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/1466541630194868228 quote:Kyrsten Sinema, the influential moderate Democratic senator from Arizona, did not commit to voting for President Joe Biden's sweeping social safety net legislation in a sit-down interview with CNN on Thursday, the latest sign that Senate Democrats do not yet have the votes to pass one of the party's top legislative priorities even as leadership hopes to approve the measure before Christmas.
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Dec 3, 2021 18:07
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The thumbs down curtsey was when she totally gave up the game.
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Dec 3, 2021 18:25
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She's never going into pass it. Shes a wrecker.
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Dec 3, 2021 18:29
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Lol we've lost everything
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Dec 3, 2021 18:30
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What an uniquely frustrating piece of poo poo.
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Dec 3, 2021 18:31
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To be fair Sinema has never been on board with BBB, and she still has no intention of voting for it, which is pretty consistent with her "I've told them what I think and they just don't like it" line. The idea that it is even possible to get her vote is at best wishful thinking, but realistically is just a coping mechanism.
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Dec 3, 2021 18:32
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DarkCrawler posted:What an uniquely frustrating piece of poo poo. Maybe her personal style is unique. But the results aint
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Dec 3, 2021 18:37
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The parent's are huge gently caress ups. https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1466821363935682564
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Dec 3, 2021 18:42
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Thom12255 posted:The parent's are huge gently caress ups. Jesus. I can't even imagine how they thought it was a good idea to buy him a gun after hearing and seeing all of that. They were either in some heavy denial or are morons who thought that he was just talking and letting him bring a gun to school would make him cool, prevent bullying, or something else insane.
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Dec 3, 2021 18:58
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Jesus. I can't even imagine how they thought it was a good idea to buy him a gun after hearing and seeing all of that. A lot of people parent for fun, not effect.
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Dec 3, 2021 19:04
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Jesus. I can't even imagine how they thought it was a good idea to buy him a gun after hearing and seeing all of that. They didnt care until their kid started shooting up the school. https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1466822867748900873 The mom is a giant chud, but havent seen that much on the dad.
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Dec 3, 2021 19:13
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