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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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Rust Martialis posted:No, we're talking about the omicron variant, which you knew before you decided to avoid the subject by joking about 5.2 million dead people. Bonus point for a smiley. The Omicron variant is a variant of SARS-CoV-2, right? Is it wrong to assume Omicron is at least as deadly as past variants? 
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Dec 5, 2021 20:19
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Gio posted:The Omicron variant is a variant of SARS-CoV-2, right? Is it wrong to assume Omicron is at least as deadly as past variants? Omicron has not resulted in any deaths so far, whereas past variants have resulted in deaths during the same time period. This strongly suggests that Omicron is not as deadly. We still need more data, but so far signs are promising.
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Dec 5, 2021 20:21
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freebooter posted:I am going in the direction that Delta was more infectious but not more dangerous/deadlier/more likely to cause severe illness, so if you're vaccinated you don't need to be particularly worried, unless you live in an American CHUD state that might soon overload its hospitals and so you'll have to exercise increased caution at traffic lights, standing on a stepladder to change light bulbs, and so forth How was delta not more likely to cause severe illness when part of its infectiousness was, if I recall correctly, due to higher viral loads - which correlates pretty well with severity of disease?
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Dec 5, 2021 20:21
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Thorn Wishes Talon posted:Omicron has not resulted in any deaths so far, whereas past variants have resulted in deaths during the same time period. This strongly suggests that Omicron is not as deadly. We still need more data, but so far signs are promising. Oh, that’s great news! Can you provide some data illustrating this comparison, preferably a peer reviewed scientific study?
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Dec 5, 2021 20:22
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Thorn Wishes Talon posted:Omicron has not resulted in any deaths so far, whereas past variants have resulted in deaths during the same time period. This strongly suggests that Omicron is not as deadly. We still need more data, but so far signs are promising. Omicron has almost certainly caused deaths so far. What are you talking about here?
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Dec 5, 2021 20:22
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:A furry who is a senior scientist vaccine developer. And not a nutritionist from a Doritos bag The nutritionist on a doritos bag has mostly been correct with regards to the global perspective on covid. Maybe some strains have not proven as bad here, but that doesn't negate their devastation elsewhere. On the other hand, this furry thought masks were optional early in the pandemic - for a respiratory virus.
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Dec 5, 2021 20:24
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Gio posted:The Omicron variant is a variant of SARS-CoV-2, right? Is it wrong to assume Omicron is at least as deadly as past variants? You can assume anything you want based on no evidence. Just admit you're doing it. It may be *more* deadly, it may be *less*. At this point in time, we have no loving clue, do we?
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Dec 5, 2021 20:24
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Gio posted:Oh, that’s great news! Can you provide some data illustrating this comparison, preferably a peer reviewed scientific study? A peer reviewed study on a virus a couple weeks old. Do you even think about what you post?
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Dec 5, 2021 20:26
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Thorn Wishes Talon posted:Omicron has not resulted in any deaths so far, whereas past variants have resulted in deaths during the same time period. This strongly suggests that Omicron is not as deadly. We still need more data, but so far signs are promising. Deaths are a lagging indicator. Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator. This should be crystallized in people's outlook by now. I am not entirely sure that during the same time period for alpha and gamma, the strains omicron is descendant from, we saw mass death. Delta has made people forget how slow this virus was to get going during those strains and during wildtype. Not infections-wise, but deaths-wise. Everyone should remember the false recovery period from those early strains. Judakel fucked around with this message at 20:28 on Dec 5, 2021 |
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Dec 5, 2021 20:26
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Rust Martialis posted:You can assume anything you want based on no evidence. Just admit you're doing it. Which means that officialdom, if they weren't completely compromised by the money, would be well advised to assume the worst and act that way until proven otherwise.
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Dec 5, 2021 20:28
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smoobles posted:Omicron has almost certainly caused deaths so far. What are you talking about here? "WHO says no deaths reported from Omicron yet as Covid variant spreads | Coronavirus | The Guardian" https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/04/who-says-no-deaths-reported-from-omicron-yet-as-covid-variant-spreads Not saying it's correct but it's from yesterday
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Dec 5, 2021 20:29
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smoobles posted:Omicron has almost certainly caused deaths so far. What are you talking about here? Died WITH unsequenced covid, not OF omicron
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Dec 5, 2021 20:29
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Rust Martialis posted:You can assume anything you want based on no evidence. Just admit you're doing it. I guess you could keep this thread closed until the CDC tweets an Omicron update, but there's plenty of evidence that transmissibility is insane and vaccines are at least partly insufficient, which means deaths will be higher. It's speculation in the sense that yes, we are discussing current and future events before the government rings any alarm bells, but this has been the case since day 1 of the pandemic, and I think it IS useful to discuss the canaries in the coal mines and urge people reading these threads to take precautions now, rather than wait for Dr. Fauci make his twice annual "we got it wrong" update.
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Dec 5, 2021 20:29
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smoobles posted:Omicron has almost certainly caused deaths so far. What are you talking about here? WHO as of yet reports no deaths linked to omicron. That can change in the future and almost certainly will, maybe even today, but as of yet, not one confirmed omicron death. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/3/new-york-becomes-fourth-us-state-to-confirm-omicron-live
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Dec 5, 2021 20:31
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Gio posted:Oh, that’s great news! Can you provide some data illustrating this comparison, preferably a peer reviewed scientific study? Peer reviewed studies won't appear for a few months (and you know this) but as of yesterday, the Omicron varient patient profile released by the Tshwane District was very promising: https://twitter.com/emilybethwong/status/1467141121579134976?s=20 Pneumonia is the leading cause of death for Covid, and the fact that rates have been low so far is good news. smoobles posted:Omicron has almost certainly caused deaths so far. What are you talking about here? Nope, not yet: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/04/who-says-no-deaths-reported-from-omicron-yet-as-covid-variant-spreads
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Dec 5, 2021 20:31
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Rust Martialis posted:A peer reviewed study on a virus a couple weeks old. That's kinda the point. Some are rushing to say this thing is so obviously bad, others are trying to latch on to "wow it's more mild!" based on the same lack of data
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Dec 5, 2021 20:31
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brugroffil posted:That's kinda the point. Some are rushing to say this thing is so obviously bad, others are trying to latch on to "wow it's more mild!" based on the same lack of data The point is that clinical observations are what we will have to rely on for a while, and so far they are not cause for alarm. We don't need a peer-reviewed study to know that there hasn't been any Omicron deaths so far.
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Dec 5, 2021 20:33
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Thorn Wishes Talon posted:The point is that clinical observations are what we will have to rely on for a while, and so far they are not cause for alarm. We don't need a peer-reviewed study to know that there hasn't been any Omicron deaths so far. How many deaths since omicron was identified have actually been sequenced? How far along in the typical disease course are most cases of omicron? It seems like we're back to the really bad statistics of "99.99% of vaccinated people haven't had breakthroughs" of this past spring. It's very early. It's too early to conclude things are worse, but it's too early to conclude it's NBD. The data is extremely limited at this point.
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Dec 5, 2021 20:36
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brugroffil posted:Died WITH unsequenced covid, not OF omicron You have said the “with/of” thing a bunch today like you think it’s super funny. When many people have a disease it’s going to overlap with every other thing that happens.
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Dec 5, 2021 20:36
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:You have said the “with/of” thing a bunch today like you think it’s super funny. It's mildly funny that the exact same terrible "covid is overblown" talking points have been completely repurposed e: yeah what holy says below. Hopefully it's actually more mild! But there's no way to draw that conclusion yet and public health officials need to act with the upmost caution, not blind optimism brugroffil fucked around with this message at 20:40 on Dec 5, 2021 |
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Dec 5, 2021 20:37
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The news is a hell of a lot better than it could be but the big caveat here is that the outcomes we've seen so far from omicron are in a very young population, many of whom have some degree of immunity from exposure or vaccination. You really can't draw apples to apples comparison between the limited set of omicron data we have and outcomes from wildtype or even delta. Every single on the ground report of mild symptoms has a warning attached that we don't know what this will do to more vulnerable populations.
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Dec 5, 2021 20:37
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StratGoatCom posted:Which means that officialdom, if they weren't completely compromised by the money, would be well advised to assume the worst and act that way until proven otherwise. Actually they should carefully monitor the situation and respond to the actual facts and evidence. A ramp-up of precautions was already started because of the inevitable winter wave anyhow here with facemasks and corona pass use re-introduced in some public spaces.
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Dec 5, 2021 20:38
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Rust Martialis posted:Actually they should carefully monitor the situation and respond to the actual facts and evidence. A ramp-up of precautions was already started because of the inevitable winter wave anyhow here with facemasks and corona pass use re-introduced in some public spaces. Better to get locked down fast and reopen in the event of a false alarm, then underestimate things and have it rapidly spiral out of control.
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Dec 5, 2021 20:40
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The bottom line is that early data is promising and does not show cause for alarm. The proper course of action for most people is to get their boosters and continue resuming their normal lives like they have been.StratGoatCom posted:Better to get locked down fast and reopen in the event of a false alarm, then underestimate things and have it rapidly spiral out of control. Nah. If you want to self-isolate then by all means do so - I promise I won't judge you. We will not have more lockdowns however, so hoping/advocating for that is futile.
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Dec 5, 2021 20:42
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Rust Martialis posted:You can assume anything you want based on no evidence. Just admit you're doing it. Why is the burden of proof with the claim that that it will continue to be comparably deadly as other variants equal to the claim that it’s less deadly? You’re right, we don’t know anything. We have very little data on Omicron—but it is still SARS-CoV-2, and there is evidence suggesting it is better able to evade immunity from previous infection, a worrisome sign even if it is “less deadly.” Assuming it is any less deadly, let alone orders of magnitude less deadly, is not equal to assuming it will continue to be as deadly or at best near as deadly as past variants. Gio fucked around with this message at 20:47 on Dec 5, 2021 |
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Dec 5, 2021 20:42
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Thorn Wishes Talon posted:The point is that clinical observations are what we will have to rely on for a while, and so far they are not cause for alarm. We don't need a peer-reviewed study to know that there hasn't been any Omicron deaths so far. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
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Dec 5, 2021 20:44
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Thorn Wishes Talon posted:The point is that clinical observations are what we will have to rely on for a while, and so far they are not cause for alarm. We don't need a peer-reviewed study to know that there hasn't been any Omicron deaths so far. "Stark warning from experienced clinician at the front line. " https://mobile.twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/1467380377064914948 I'm sure you'll find a way to disregard this, but I will continue to err on the side of caution, regarding this "mild" variant.
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Dec 5, 2021 20:44
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smoobles posted:I guess you could keep this thread closed until the CDC tweets an Omicron update, but there's plenty of evidence that transmissibility is insane and vaccines are at least partly insufficient, which means deaths will be higher. I do not live in the US, so although I do respect Tony Fauci greatly, NAIAD does not direct public health measures here in Denmark. Also, the limited data does indicate 'eek' levels of transmission, agreed. But we don't have any evidence yet about lethality, with or without vaccine data, do we? As of yesterday the WHO said zero deaths from omicron. That's *not* a great set of data points to extrapolate from, is it, really? A summer student once put up a graph with a nice S-curve on it, with his single data point exactly where he thought it should go on the curve. The department chair looked at the graph, with exactly one data point, no error bars, then looked at the student and said "never show a graph like that again". Yes, people will probably die *from* omicron, but right now, you have *no* data.
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Dec 5, 2021 20:49
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Maybe in 45 years AIDS will become airborne, (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Dec 5, 2021 20:53
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There’s no conclusive data yet but there’s starting to be enough ‘mild’ anecdotes trickling in that I’d be surprised if it turned out omicron was particularly lethal. We’ve only known about it for a week but it’s been around for a couple of months so I would expect to have seen bodies piling up if it was as bad as CSPAM makes it out to be. Time will tell and maybe it takes a while for the worst effects of the disease to present in patients but that would be a bit of a reach.
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Dec 5, 2021 21:02
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Blitter posted:"Stark warning from experienced clinician at the front line. " I mean, there's nothing to disregard. The lady is saying their hospitals aren't designed to accommodate large numbers of pediatric patients, presumably in reference to the spike in Covid cases among children in South Africa (which may or may not be attributed solely to Omicron at this time). If it does turn out that Omicron is much more infectious/deadly among children, that just means we need to accelerate their vaccination.
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Dec 5, 2021 21:02
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Thorn Wishes Talon posted:The bottom line is that early data is promising and does not show cause for alarm. The proper course of action for most people is to get their boosters and continue resuming their normal lives like they have been. Our normal lives are what led to the conditions we've found ourselves in this last year and a half or so. It might be that learning nothing from this experience and demanding an enforced normalcy is a mistake.
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Dec 5, 2021 21:03
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Gio posted:Why is the burden of proof with the claim that that it will continue to be comparably deadly as other variants equal to the claim that it’s less deadly? Let us differentiate between transmissibility and lethality, ok? Your hypothesis is that omicron is deadlier than prior strains, for which there is no supporting evidence. There is the issue of a spike in infections resulting in a flood of hospitalizations, resulting in a systemic collapse, and here in Denmark I expect the government will probably take a couple days to announce an increase in public health measures, while carefully tracking hospitalizations. If omicron is indeed able to infect vaccinated and/or recovered people, it remains to be seen how severe the hospitalization rate is. I myself had beta (based on my date of infection) for example, but apart from a mild headache for 3 days, was asymptomatic. I subsequently was vaccinated. I was lucky. There is no way any government, having managed alpha, beta and delta, is instantly going to 'plaid' on lockdown for omicron. Denmark has done better than most (personal view) and the government will continue to manage things via medical and epidemiological evidence. If you want to make doom-laden predictions about mass death from omicron, go ahead. I'll wait for data, as I hope any responsible public health officials will too.
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Dec 5, 2021 21:05
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Blitter posted:"Stark warning from experienced clinician at the front line. " It's true but kinda for sad external reasons. The region being hit by omicron in south africa has had that peculiar pattern all along, with very very high rates in very young children, higher at most times than any other demographic, second at most times only to 60+ year olds. The depressing reason why is that it's a region with ~20% HIV prevalence, one of the highest on earth, so there is a weird demographic skew where there is a lot of 0-5 year olds who are profoundly immunocompromised, then far less 6-10 year olds. (because you don't make it to 6-10 if it's not being well treated). then lot of immunocompromised people spread out more evenly from teens to old age.
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Dec 5, 2021 21:08
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Rust Martialis posted:Let us differentiate between transmissibility and lethality, ok?
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Dec 5, 2021 21:09
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Gio posted:You’re assuming far more than what I’ve stated. I said we don’t know about it’s lethality yet, but that the burden of proof that it is less lethal, let alone orders of magnitude less lethal, rests squarely with those people. While this thread demands tremendous degrees of evidence for pessimistic news, those same standards are not put on the panglossian takes that Omicron is good news because it’s less lethal. With a new strain and questions around lethality and transmissibility it makes perfect sense to be concerned and start taking precautions. The problem is that those precautions are things like "wearing a mask" , "keep an eye on the news" and "getting your booster", not gleefully fantasizing about a super variant which evades vaccines and only leaves the few with superiors genes behind, or talking about how Omicron is a "missing link" between COVID past and Captain Trips COVID future. The weird glee people seem to take about fantasizing about a vaccine evading highly lethal COVID variant is loving disgusting. Discussing COVID should not be your personal playground for your depressive worldview as you theorycraft the end of human existence. But because apparently thats what the moderators want, thats what we have, and this thread is worthless. Also, for God's sake, log off and go outside.
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Dec 5, 2021 21:15
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Thorn Wishes Talon posted:I mean, there's nothing to disregard. The lady is saying their hospitals aren't designed to accommodate large numbers of pediatric patients, presumably in reference to the spike in Covid cases among children in South Africa (which may or may not be attributed solely to Omicron at this time). Ok, not listening to the interview with the clinician and then pretending the variant attribution is in doubt, in a province where > 77% sequenced cases are B.1.1.529, and the discussion is specifically about a demographic change? Those are certainly some ways to "disregard" exactly what you asked for. Don't worry, your lack of good faith in dialogue and or stupidity were never in question.
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Dec 5, 2021 21:15
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Bel Shazar posted:Our normal lives are what led to the conditions we've found ourselves in this last year and a half or so. It might be that learning nothing from this experience and demanding an enforced normalcy is a mistake. I'm not "demanding" "enforced" normalcy. Here in the West, one is free to behave however they want to behave. Nobody is stopping someone who wants to continue to self-isolate, or go back to self-isolating after dipping their toes in normalcy out of an abundance of caution. I have a few friends who have done just that, and I basically said to them, "no problem, I understand, let me know if you need anything and hopefully I'll see you again in a few months." It is incorrect to state that continuing to live normally means we haven't learned anything. A year and a half ago we didn't have vaccines. Today, we do. If you're vaccinated and boostered, you're very safe against Delta, and reasonably safe against Omicron as well (its vaccine escape potential seems to be hovering around 25% so far). If it turns out that Omicron-specific boosters are needed, they will be designed and distributed in due time. I'm just saying that, at this stage, passing normative judgments (i.e. what "should" be done at a societal level) is both premature and useless.
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Dec 5, 2021 21:15
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Gio posted:The Omicron variant is a variant of SARS-CoV-2, right? Is it wrong to assume Omicron is at least as deadly as past variants? Omicron is a branch of the alpha variant, Delta is... also basically a branch from the original virus As a result they present differently, og covid, alpha and omicron all have a 4-9 day incubation period (you might be infectious for a week before getting sick), whereas Delta is more like a 3 day incubation period Omicron has enough mutations that it could arguably be called sars-cov-3, or at least covid-21 There's always the possibility that C.1.2 reemerges after omicron is done, and Mu variant is probably coming back in six months or so once we all have immunity to omicron
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Dec 5, 2021 21:17
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Blitter posted:Ok, not listening to the interview with the clinician and then pretending the variant attribution is in doubt, in a province where > 77% sequenced cases are B.1.1.529, and the discussion is specifically about a demographic change? I listened to the short clip from Prof. Mathivha. Is there something else? I'm on mobile right now so I may have missed it.
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Dec 5, 2021 21:17
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