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Sekenr posted:First time I hear about it. He really honest to god laments that we gave up the nukes. If he could create one, he would have. Its pretty trivial if you have the material.
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Dec 9, 2021 21:50
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CommieGIR posted:Its pretty trivial if you have the material. Exactly, there is no material. Not to mention that even if he had them, half life of weapons plutonium is 87 years. 30+ years (who knows how fresh it was in the first place) makes it probably less than optimal. But that is an aside, he has no weapons grade nuke material.
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Dec 9, 2021 21:59
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Sekenr posted:Exactly, there is no material. Not to mention that even if he had them, half life of weapons plutonium is 87 years. 30+ years (who knows how fresh it was in the first place) makes it probably less than optimal. Lukashenko feels like he's too unstable for Putin to be okay with Belarus having any kinds of WMDs. Belarus feels a lot like the North Korea to Putin's China, on the leash but not a very long one. Some of his interviews are downright unhinged and it's kind of amazing to me that in 2021 Europe has a nation whose leader openly calls themselves Europe's last dictator and everyone just...kinda nods and goes with it? Belarus has always been fascinating to me in that regard. Equally fascinating to me is fascist Spain under Franco lasting decades after WW2 ending
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Dec 9, 2021 22:18
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https://twitter.com/AlarKaris/status/1469063642192781312
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Dec 9, 2021 23:42
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Absolutely false" @PressSec says of reports that the US is pressuring Ukraine to cede some land to Russia Yeahhhh look at that folks. That's what's going to happen hear. Ukraine will be ceded without a shot fired and PEACE IN OUR TIME!
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Dec 10, 2021 07:25
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I think the Ukrainians are delusional if they think that when push comes to shove the west will risk WW3 for their own sake, losing Ukraine would just be a return to pre-2014 and not a world changing threat to america and Europe.
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Dec 10, 2021 09:39
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Al-Saqr posted:I think the Ukrainians are delusional if they think that when push comes to shove the west will risk WW3 for their own sake, losing Ukraine would just be a return to pre-2014 and not a world changing threat to america and Europe. I have this cringy/sad memory from one of those Vice short videos Simon Ostrovsky shot in 2014. The camera crew is following a small group of Ukrainian soldiers (sailors?) in Crimea who are trying to stare/shout down the little green men occupying their base. As they approach the gate and start shouting at the green men, there's a voice in the background, from one of the Ukrainians shouting "America is with us!". I think about that guy every now and then.
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Dec 10, 2021 10:55
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I think about the guy that was tortured and mutilated to death by DPR thugs for "trying to raise the flag of Ukraine on Horlivka's town council building".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volodymyr_Rybak_(murder_victim) There's phone footage of him being abducted in the middle of the day, from among a crowd. It's sickening knowing what happened next. I think sometimes people forget the human cost to actual Ukrainians in all this. Rinkles fucked around with this message at 11:26 on Dec 10, 2021 |
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Dec 10, 2021 11:23
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A friend of mine was a coastal guard officer stationed in Crimea. It’s been 7 years since I’ve last seen him online.
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Dec 10, 2021 11:37
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Al-Saqr posted:I think the Ukrainians are delusional if they think that when push comes to shove the west will risk WW3 for their own sake, losing Ukraine would just be a return to pre-2014 and not a world changing threat to america and Europe. Which Ukrainians do you read that are under the belief that the west will start WW3? The officials are pretty realistic in the interviews I've seen that they are on their own but that they need weapons and the threat of further sanctions
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Dec 10, 2021 13:43
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In a new provocation Russia has issued warning notices for up to 70% of the Sea of Azov - Ukrainian Navy Russian Foreign Ministry accuses Ukraine in provocation because of sailing Navy ship in Azov Sea yesterday And the cool stuff Ukraine's president Zelenskiy says. does not exclude the possibility of direct negotiations with the president of the Russian Federation in Donbass, this is supported by Europe and the US Interesting. This sets up a meeting which could be: a "give up we have dirt on you and you have a place in post occupation Ukraine" or just a "here sign this give us half the land or stewardship of the country and you get to be our sock puppet" Seeing as Russia doesn't see Ukraine as a foreign country but a confederation of rogue oblasts, why would they negotiate terms as equals? This is a surrender negotiation.
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Dec 11, 2021 05:03
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Al-Saqr posted:losing Ukraine would just be a return to pre-2014 and not a world changing threat to america and Europe. The way I see it, the risk comprises of openly saying to everyone "don't ever trust us on a deal, GET NUKES FOR FUCKS SAKE, DON'T EVER GIVE THEM UP NO MATTER WHAT WE OFFER", which isn't a great message for future to spread. Not like a single politician in power will care, because the other option sucks very obviously right now and is also virtually guaranteed to be political suicide 
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Dec 11, 2021 12:59
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Think I'd prefer any solution that doesn't result in thousands of dead before the inevitable surrender
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Dec 11, 2021 16:02
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The ideal solution would be fore somebody to poison putin and this whole problem goes away.
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Dec 11, 2021 17:14
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How are u posted:The ideal solution would be fore somebody to poison putin and this whole problem goes away. No, that's not how that would work. Putin's death is going to be an awful thing to live through for Russian people.
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Dec 11, 2021 17:15
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:No, that's not how that would work. Putin's death is going to be an awful thing to live through for Russian people. Putins invasion of Ukraine would be a fun walk in the park for the Ukrainian people?? One man is the aggressor, here. Just one person. He does not have to do it. It is his choice.
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Dec 11, 2021 17:17
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Yeah obvs assuming we can't somehow weasel our way out of this whole redrawing borders with threat of force thing
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Dec 11, 2021 17:21
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lol if you guys think that Putin wouldnt be replaced with another KGB dude to act as another frontman for the russian Oligarchs.
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Dec 11, 2021 17:24
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:No, that's not how that would work. Putin's death is going to be an awful thing to live through for Russian people. Yeah. I think I've written it in this thread even, I think Putin is ruthless and shameless, but ultimately entirely rational and will not make choices that lead to "everyone loses horribly" scenarios. The worst thing for the world he has caused is that by discrediting not just all the opposition but making sure everyone on his side is kept low enough to be non-threatening, he has also ensured that if he slips in the shower tomorrow and dies, the power transition will be rough. That can actually be part of his calculus -- by making sure there is no clean way to move past him available, he makes plans on his life less desirable. Al-Saqr posted:lol if you guys think that Putin wouldnt be replaced with another KGB dude to act as another frontman for the russian Oligarchs. There was a time when Putin was just a KGB dude who worked on behalf of other people. Since then, he has consolidated power.
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Dec 11, 2021 17:30
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How are u posted:Putins invasion of Ukraine would be a fun walk in the park for the Ukrainian people?? Poisoning a state leader doesn't usually lead to a measured response from said state. Now add in the power vacuum and nuclear weapons.
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Dec 11, 2021 17:37
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Controlling that region has been a primary aim of Russian foreign policy for 500 years regardless of whether the person on top is a Tsar or a General Secretary or a President, but I'm sure if you just stab one guy with a polonium pen it will all stop. E: can you imagine the American reaction if someone had assassinated Bush to try to stop the Iraq War lol
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Dec 11, 2021 17:39
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VitalSigns posted:Controlling that region has been a primary aim of Russian foreign policy for 500 years regardless of whether the person on top is a Tsar or a General Secretary or a President, but I'm sure if you just stab one guy with a polonium pen it will all stop. My reaction or America's in general? If it was done by a foreign power then Cheney would have nuked them. If it was done by Al Gore we would have had an interesting time.
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Dec 11, 2021 17:43
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:My reaction Heck Yes! Loam! posted:or America's in general? And yeah I doubt very much it would have made the American government examine why someone might have felt that way and then course-correct and pursue a more peaceful foreign policy
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Dec 11, 2021 17:59
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How are u posted:The ideal solution would be fore somebody to poison putin and this whole problem goes away. if you think Putin is bad you should look at the candidates for president that run against him
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Dec 11, 2021 17:59
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There is no one to replace Putin right now. He killed off andor jailed, ran off every other possible candidate even remotely able to run for presidency.
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Dec 11, 2021 18:45
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ez just give russia to kadyrov What could go wrong??
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Dec 11, 2021 18:52
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Vasukhani posted:if you think Putin is bad you should look at the candidates for president that run against him You must be completely uninformed about Russian politics, to take any of the purported Putin’s successors at a face value. Especially to interpret someone as Zhirinovsky as the “all alternatives are worse” kind of candidate, instead of someone deliberately permitted to run for the post in order to highlight Putin’s comparative “virtues”.
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Dec 11, 2021 19:01
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Putin miraculously dying right now might lead into a brief or even long struggle between competing factions, but I don't really see that anyone would emerge from that waving a white flag to the West. Imho the winning faction would more likely double down on nationalism and strongman tactics just to avoid a 1990's style of smuta.
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Dec 11, 2021 19:13
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Siloviki would probably “elect” Medvedev to hold the door while they figure out a more sustainable succession, if necessary.
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Dec 11, 2021 19:20
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There's a substantial liberal wing in the government, people's appetite for fighting corruption and just leaving the people be to cook shashlyk on the weekend and go to Spain on holiday without the fear of going to prison because a cop planted drugs on you How to get to that and get rid of the military-security unhinged grandpas still trying to recreate the gulag system and relive WW2 is going to be a fun problem to solve
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Dec 11, 2021 19:47
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I want the US to trade Kaliningrad for Ukraine because it would be the most comedic response Oh and thank you to Canada for training Ukrainian Nazis: https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/12/03/uknz-d03.html
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Dec 11, 2021 19:57
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How are u posted:The ideal solution would be fore somebody to poison putin and this whole problem goes away. The assassination of the head of state of a nuclear power during a period of high tensions sounds like it'd only make problems bigger.
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Dec 11, 2021 20:05
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i mean, even if Putin suddenly croaks tomorrow, his friends and benefactors from the FSB and other assorted siloviki / organised crime groups are still there to provide a semblance of a backbone to the rotten blobfish that is the modern Russian state how strong is that backbone gonna be against the inevitable and instantaneous rat race for control is another story. hopefully not as bad as the nineties, but something tells me the vast forests of Russia will be well-fertilized with uncooperative business owners, board members and local government officials
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Dec 11, 2021 20:07
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cinci zoo sniper posted:You must be completely uninformed about Russian politics, to take any of the purported Putin’s successors at a face value. Especially to interpret someone as Zhirinovsky as the “all alternatives are worse” kind of candidate, instead of someone deliberately permitted to run for the post in order to highlight Putin’s comparative “virtues”. if you think anyone outside of the system could control russia, then you are also wrong. If there was a color revolution like scenario it would be as destabilizing for Eurasia as 1991
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Dec 11, 2021 20:37
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Vasukhani posted:if you think anyone outside of the system could control russia, then you are also wrong. If there was a color revolution like scenario it would be as destabilizing for Eurasia as 1991 You’re the one suggesting there are candidates outside of Putin’s system running for president in Russian elections. 
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Dec 11, 2021 20:50
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Why are we talking about a hypothetical Putin death? You guys are like nato responding to Russian agression. "Ohhh gee if Putin dies we won't have to do any of that stuff like you know uhhh taking action"
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Dec 11, 2021 21:00
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Why are we talking about a hypothetical Putin death? You guys are like nato responding to Russian agression. "Ohhh gee if Putin dies we won't have to do any of that stuff like you know uhhh taking action" No, someone just posted a daft take a bit above, and this thread is very good at treading through speculative hypotheticals if it’s something “geopolitical”. How are u posted:The ideal solution would be fore somebody to poison putin and this whole problem goes away.
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Dec 11, 2021 21:18
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Why are we talking about a hypothetical Putin death? You guys are like nato responding to Russian agression. "Ohhh gee if Putin dies we won't have to do any of that stuff like you know uhhh taking action" nato must respect the sovereignty and will of the people in the countries that do not want to take action
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Dec 11, 2021 21:29
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Vasukhani posted:nato must respect the sovereignty and will of the people in the countries that do not want to take action So must Russia
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Dec 11, 2021 21:44
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Martyring a head of state in service of a neighboring state cannot possibly have any negative reprecussions which would result in the exact thing people are trying to avoid
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Dec 11, 2021 22:35
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