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NATO is sending posting troops to occupy this thread, and post awful takes
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Dec 11, 2021 22:50
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Vasukhani posted:nato must respect the sovereignty and will of the people in the countries that do not want to take action  and Russia doesn't have to respect Ukraine's sovereignty because......
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Dec 11, 2021 22:51
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CommieGIR posted:
Because standing up to Putin would be scary!!! I hope he dies before it comes to that :goonpussy:
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Dec 11, 2021 22:57
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I don't think the Jack Ryan fantasies that chickenhawk nerds are posting about poisoning Putin have much to do with NATO's reasoning. NATO isn't going to do anything because (a) most NATO countries' militaries are only good for bullying goatherds in North Africa and the Middle East and they aren't even very good at that, and (b) while America can still fight a conventional war, 20 years of kids coming back in flag-draped coffins has soured everyone on pointless forever wars and the chickenhawks sending other people's kids to fight them, and it's going to be at least 20 years before anyone listens to the neocon chickenhawks again
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Dec 12, 2021 00:49
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CommieGIR posted:
It should. But Biden obviously won't seriously resist something outside of the US's SoI.
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Dec 12, 2021 01:05
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Believe it or not, but there are patterns in the ways states and polities behave. Studying those is more useful than being shocked when policy isn't directed by moral principles.
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Dec 12, 2021 01:34
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VitalSigns posted:I don't think the Jack Ryan fantasies that chickenhawk nerds are posting about poisoning Putin have much to do with NATO's reasoning. "The evil imperialists bloated militaries are incapable of fighting a war against another military" is.... certainly a take. Right up there in the rafters with "the perfidious CIA is everywhere...and also incompetent"
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Dec 12, 2021 02:21
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Plastic_Gargoyle posted:"The evil imperialists bloated militaries are incapable of fighting a war against another military" is.... certainly a take. idk if you've been following it but I think the appetite for war in the states is quite low, they just lost in afghanistan and they seem to not really care
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Dec 12, 2021 02:28
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I'm used to the poor reading comprehension on these forums but that's jaw dropping. I didn't say America's bloated military can't fight a conventional war, I said they're the only NATO country that can but Americans are tired of the poindexters sending their kids to die in endless foreign wars (for now).
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Dec 12, 2021 02:33
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The fact NATO militaries are oriented towards heavily asymmetrical ME intervention/occupation is absolutely part of the calculus of why they aren't getting involved - reduced preparedness equals increased casualties, which they're unwilling to absorb. They haven't put boots on the ground in a theatre where they don't have complete air superiority for over three decades, and they won't start now over Ukraine.
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Dec 12, 2021 04:32
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It's ok not to post about eastern Europe when you know little about eastern Europe. Often it is beneficial to read or ask things and learn about them rather than posting opinions, especially infuriatingly ignorant and US-centric *** Economic sanctions options in FP: https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/12/10/russia-swift-sanctions-economic-nuclear-option-invade-ukraine-putin-kyiv/ One piece of the puzzle here is that Putin's ratings are back to pre-crimea and the difference there was that the population was buttered for months about the crazed ukrs and getting back Crimea as a Alsace-Lorraine in russian nationalism, however now who the gently caress is excited about going to war for the Donbass and then to come back to their job in a factory making 30000 rubles, that falls to 20000 with more sanctions?
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Dec 12, 2021 10:12
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What's the range of Russian popular opinion on the two people's republics? Nationalists like them presumably, but does your average grandma think they're a bit scary and lawless (for example, pulled out of my rear end)?
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Dec 12, 2021 12:07
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aphid_licker posted:What's the range of Russian popular opinion on the two people's republics? Nationalists like them presumably, but does your average grandma think they're a bit scary and lawless (for example, pulled out of my rear end)? No one gives a poo poo about them, they’ve been long since forgotten and entertained ~25% popular support in Russia at the peak of nationalist fervour in 2017. They’re being dragged into the limelight right now, for obvious reasons, but between ‘rona and economy no one sane dwells on Ukrainian warlords.
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Dec 12, 2021 12:27
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aphid_licker posted:What's the range of Russian popular opinion on the two people's republics? Nationalists like them presumably, but does your average grandma think they're a bit scary and lawless (for example, pulled out of my rear end)? as long as it doesn't affect them majorly, the public doesn't care about anything. in any country wisconsingreg fucked around with this message at 14:49 on Dec 12, 2021 |
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Dec 12, 2021 14:29
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Yeah if you tune in to the Grandma Radio they're not super into Donbass which means that propaganda tv isn't making it a focus point about invading to save the population which is good. Otherwise they don't know poo poo about those places Again good signs but a few days ago during a puppet human rights hearing a Russian filmmaker brought up some pretty pertinent issues and you can see how angry Putin became. You can tell he's surrounded himself by yes-men and is not used to being questioned: https://youtu.be/Ukk074sIR-Q The yes-men being equally insane military-security freaks who live to Make Russia Great and big on the map Now everyone, including Sokurov, is discussing of he'll have some bad consequences for questioning the tzar. Somaen fucked around with this message at 15:04 on Dec 12, 2021 |
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Dec 12, 2021 14:47
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Thanks guys!
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Dec 12, 2021 15:31
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-- Joint Forces Operation: 3 ceasefire violations yesterday. 1 Ukrainian serviceman wounded Ceasefire violations have been declining over the last month or two. I wonder if a 0 ceasefire day will coincide with a night time invasion of Ukraine. More military train movements zipping around. This one has MLRS. https://twitter.com/i/status/1469980867498024968 Also 2 russian BTGs are being out in play. Here's a discussion on the response to BTGS from some captain in fort Benning. I don't credit this with any genius but it's a good glimpse of what we may recommend to Ukraine as part of information support https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...flzSZEsqG0WIfic quote:Control terrain WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 01:32 on Dec 13, 2021 |
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Dec 12, 2021 18:51
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https://mobile.twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1470299300978700290 Going all in with war threats There's an inherent danger to this if it's a bluff in that at some point backing down won't be manlike Though I wonder what would happen if the dog caught the car and NATO backs off: ok let's all calm down, no Ukraine in NATO. Does Putin back away all "huh sorry guys, back to being brotherly nations, no more war. Let me try to overthrow you in peaceful ways using soft power we don't have anymore over you"
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Dec 13, 2021 10:19
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Somaen posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1470299300978700290 The actual quote is about a different topic. https://m.gazeta.ru/army/news/2021/12/13/17003707.shtml Ryabkov says that they would retaliate against INF Treaty-covered armaments being deployed by NATO in Europe with a buildup of equivalent weapons systems.
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Dec 13, 2021 10:37
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Ohhh lol what a headline though
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Dec 13, 2021 10:54
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Somaen posted:Though I wonder what would happen if the dog caught the car and NATO backs off: ok let's all calm down, no Ukraine in NATO. Does Putin back away all "huh sorry guys, back to being brotherly nations, no more war. Let me try to overthrow you in peaceful ways using soft power we don't have anymore over you" Russia's NATO border is mainly with the Baltics, but as long as the EU and the US is somewhat stable I don't think he can do much about it. This could change if Trump manages to get re-elected or one of the bigger EU nations like France elects a fascist government though. Trump(or someone like him) could actually collapse NATO and if the EU disintegrates, the Baltics are up for grabs. Russia is due for collapse too after Putin is gone though. So I guess whoever manages to hold on to the status quo the longest wins? It's a war for naked survival and it's fought in grandma's and grandpa's Facebook comment section 
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Dec 13, 2021 11:15
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GABA ghoul posted:Russia's NATO border is mainly with the Baltics, but as long as the EU and the US is somewhat stable I don't think he can do much about it. This could change if Trump manages to get re-elected or one of the bigger EU nations like France elects a fascist government though. Trump(or someone like him) could actually collapse NATO and if the EU disintegrates, the Baltics are up for grabs. "russia collapsing" is crying wolf. from the top of my head russia sensu lato has been "due to collapse any day now" or has actually partially collapsed in 1917, 1918, 1921, 1937, 1941, 1956, 1989 and late 1990s in general - and that's like a bit over hundred years. i'm probably missing at least a few major or minor crisises which have indicated immediate collapse, at least to someone.
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Dec 13, 2021 16:35
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Germany blocks Ukraine from purchasing defensive weapons via NATO support and procurement agency, defence minister Reznikov told @FT. 'They are still building the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and blocking our defensive weapons. It is very unfair' Dankashen Deutschland. Oh also our hot friend Tulsi gabbard threw on her uniform and demanded to let Russia invade Ukraine as to prevent WW3. Like some kind of Charles Lindbergh character. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 17:27 on Dec 13, 2021 |
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Dec 13, 2021 17:24
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El Perkele posted:"russia collapsing" is crying wolf. from the top of my head russia sensu lato has been "due to collapse any day now" or has actually partially collapsed in 1917, 1918, 1921, 1937, 1941, 1956, 1989 and late 1990s in general - and that's like a bit over hundred years. i'm probably missing at least a few major or minor crisises which have indicated immediate collapse, at least to someone. 1812, 1611, 1240
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Dec 13, 2021 20:12
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Vasukhani posted:1812, 1611, 1240 Your underwear is showing. Russia didn't exist in 1240.
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Dec 13, 2021 20:32
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OddObserver posted:Your underwear is showing. Russia didn't exist in 1240. Define Russia.
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Dec 13, 2021 21:07
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piL posted:Define Russia. You see the golden horde was a well known sick man of Europe and definitely didn't threaten global hegemony.
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Dec 13, 2021 21:10
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piL posted:Define Russia. The state and people formed from Moscow's imperial project that have fully embraced its identity... As opposed all the peoples of East Slavic descent present and past they'd like to claim legitimacy of authority over, by the act of taking this broader community's ancient name as the basis of their own in a blatant act of imperialist land grab.
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Dec 13, 2021 21:34
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lol, but also novgorod erasure
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Dec 13, 2021 21:37
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i say swears online posted:lol, but also novgorod erasure That's kinda what I was alluding to with "...fully embraced its identity".
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Dec 13, 2021 21:41
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i kid of course, but yes, rus' does not equal russia
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Dec 13, 2021 22:16
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OddObserver posted:The state and people formed from Moscow's imperial project that have fully embraced its identity... no real places in Europe until the 1840s then I actually agree
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Dec 13, 2021 22:20
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OddObserver posted:The state and people formed from Moscow's imperial project that have fully embraced its identity... As opposed all the peoples of East Slavic descent present and past they'd like to claim legitimacy of authority over, by the act of taking this broader community's ancient name as the basis of their own in a blatant act of imperialist land grab. Which Moscow? Which imperial project? You must mean during and after the great northern war, unless you mean projects of imperial Sweden imperial Poland. Or perhaps you mean the other Russian empires that would follow. I'm glad you clarified!
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Dec 13, 2021 22:23
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That doesn't make Russia collapsing any less dangerous. When the USSR collapsed the US had specialists and military experts on the ground within days to work with the Russian Army on securing all those nukes. If Russia collapses after Putin I don't think the US will be able to do that again and then it's nuclear proliferation wild west
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Dec 13, 2021 22:31
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or it's very possible the russian state is stronger than a single person and will be able to move on from putin's eventual death
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Dec 13, 2021 23:21
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i say swears online posted:or it's very possible the russian state is stronger than a single person and will be able to move on from putin's eventual death Yeah I don't really buy that Vladimir 'the poisoner' Putin's dead will inevitably lead to the dissolution of the Russian Federation. Will it lead to turmoil? For sure. But, it will also be a new opportunity for Russians to fight for the real democracy that they deserve to live in.
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Dec 13, 2021 23:23
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it will be a new opportunity for siloviki to knife each other competing for spots at the state trough. It won't result in a state collapse or even much visible turmoil, since the jostling almost certainly has already begun behind the scenes and it's in everyone's interest involved to keep the wheels of state moving in the same direction.
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Dec 14, 2021 00:34
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I'd like to congratulate Putin on his 17d chess play of shooting Tulsi gabbard with the Russia apologist gun. Well it was a quiet day on the western front for our friends of the forum United Russia. NATOs weak response only further proves that the downstream is much bleaker for the imperial American empire. I mean Russia at this point needs to dunk Ukraine as a renewal of empire. So we stand at a crossroads. If Russia decides to move on Ukraine they face the potential for sanctions etc. However there could be many Chinese partners that continue to side with Russia and poo poo global politics drastically. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 04:56 on Dec 14, 2021 |
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Dec 14, 2021 03:33
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Tomorrow might be a big day for Russia-German relations, and likely for Russian relations elsewhere. The Berlin Tiergarten Murder trial is coming to a close, with the verdict expected tomorrow. This is the trial of Vadim Sokolov for the murder of Zelimkhan Khangoshvili, a 40-year-old Georgian citizen and former Chechen rebel commander, was shot dead in Berlin’s Kleiner Tiergarten. The killer was captured shortly after the murder, where he rode up to to the victim on a bicycle, shot him in the head, then threw the bike and gun in a river. When he was arrested he was travelling under the name of Vadim Sokolov, but the Russia team at Bellingcat discovered his real identity was Vadim Krasikov, and was connected to the FSB. In addition, there's connections between him and other similar murders of dissidents elsewhere in Europe, indicating this was part of a Russian state backed assassination program of dissidents. There's more details of that, and more, here. With a new German government this is likely to be their first major test when it comes to relations with Russia, and whatever they do will likely set the scene for European and Russian relations over the coming year, even if their response is to do nothing.
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Dec 14, 2021 17:16
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Brown Moses posted:Tomorrow might be a big day for Russia-German relations, and likely for Russian relations elsewhere. The Berlin Tiergarten Murder trial is coming to a close, with the verdict expected tomorrow. This is the trial of Vadim Sokolov for the murder of Zelimkhan Khangoshvili, a 40-year-old Georgian citizen and former Chechen rebel commander, was shot dead in Berlin’s Kleiner Tiergarten. The killer was captured shortly after the murder, where he rode up to to the victim on a bicycle, shot him in the head, then threw the bike and gun in a river. Yeah keeping a close eye on this one since either Germany is going to balk to keep good relations or they will close the deal and have to accept the possible fallout, especially to their energy strategy.
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Dec 14, 2021 17:46
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