|
Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
| Black Beauty |
|
2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
|
4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
|
117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
|
11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
|
54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
|
cant cook creole bream posted:Yeah, the statement that 40% of all Corona cases in London are already omicron sounds incredibly excessive, at this point in time. I wonder where he pulled that number from. I don't think it's that nuts with the Rt that Omicron seems to have. We're at 20+% in Ontario right now, it's already dominant in one city, and it's expected to be dominant in the province this week. Delta is just above an Rt of 1 and Omicron is at 3.31 here, with those numbers it doesn't take long for a variant to dominate. enki42 fucked around with this message at 18:33 on Dec 13, 2021 |
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 18:27
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 11:13 |
|
|
Owlofcreamcheese posted:Like conservative resistance to covid stuff is definitely real as a factor but it's way more people not caring or not thinking it effects them, more than some calculated "we like covid because we calculated racism!". I don’t think anyone has written about the extent of Dumb Person Logic when it comes to the unvaccinated. Dumb Person Logic is the intuition that A) if I haven’t gotten sick yet, that means I am different because I eat/take _____ and therefore can never get sick from COVID, and B) I took a COVID test once and it was negative so I don’t need the vaccine (I hear this one probably four times per day.) Now combine this with C) my friends got the vaccine and the second shot made them sick! and D) on the news they said it gives you a blood clot. Put all that together and it makes intuitive sense to choose not to subject yourself to known risk and rather trust God and vitamins to protect you from a potential risk.
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 18:28
|
|
|
cant cook creole bream posted:Yeah, the statement that 40% of all Corona cases in London are already omicron sounds incredibly excessive, at this point in time. I wonder where he pulled that number from. As excessive as it sounds, it seems consistent with the data on how quickly omicron came to dominate in South Africa.
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 18:29
|
|
|
the holy poopacy posted:As excessive as it sounds, it seems consistent with the data on how quickly omicron came to dominate in South Africa. At that point, South Africa had really low numbers though. This is still an exponential growth which implies that it would grow slower at low numbers. Unless the UK imported thousands of cases, it should take a bit longer for omicron to catch up with community spread. And the total number of active corona cases hasn't gone up incredibly much in the UK yet. Unless delta suddenly stopped infecting at the same time, there's no real way. If 50% of the active cases were omicron and there's no real reason for delta to wane, you'd expect the total cases to double. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 18:56 on Dec 13, 2021 |
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 18:50
|
|
|
Is there any reason to think the UK didn't import a whole bunch of cases. Weren't like 20 people on a plane to Amsterdam found to have omicron the day after it was first identified? Do we think omicron waited to be officially sequenced before getting on a plane because idk it would be rude to show up unannounced I guess?
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 18:58
|
|
|
VitalSigns posted:Is there any reason to think the UK didn't import a whole bunch of cases. Weren't like 20 people on a plane to Amsterdam found to have omicron the day after it was first identified?
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 19:03
|
|
|
Is there any info if the increase spread is because it's better at infecting unvaccinated people who haven't had covid, unvaccinated people who've had covid, or vaccinated people? Or all three?
Alctel fucked around with this message at 19:07 on Dec 13, 2021 |
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 19:04
|
|
|
 IN STOCK ALERT iHealth COVID-19 Antigen Rapid Test, 2 Tests per Pack,FDA EUA Authorized OTC at-Home Self Test, Results in 15 Minutes with Non-invasive Nasal Swab, Easy to Use & No Discomfort https://www.amazon.com/dp/B09KZ6TBNY/ref=cm_sw_r_apan_glt_fabc_1Q6XYC1DJXYKHQY7WH7N?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 19:18
|
|
|
cant cook creole bream posted:At that point, South Africa had really low numbers though. This is still an exponential growth which implies that it would grow slower at low numbers. Unless the UK imported thousands of cases, it should take a bit longer for omicron to catch up with community spread. There is actually a lot of surveillance and monitoring that the UK Government has (or anyone who wants to search for it): Perhaps the information is from The UKHSA briefing #31? Or you could see if someone has aggregated that data for you elsewhere, and then put it in a tweet? https://twitter.com/AlastairGrant4/status/1469663923662209027 Oh, do you want some estimates for cases based on the current prevalence and doubling rates?  Yes, I do believe you will see an increase in cases. edit: reduce the dick factor Blitter fucked around with this message at 19:40 on Dec 13, 2021 |
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 19:22
|
|
|
cr0y posted:
Are these hard to come by for you in the USA? I tend to get covid tests in my local stores or apothecaries at about 3€ a piece. Also, professional tests are free again.
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 19:23
|
|
|
Blitter posted:Gosh, gee I wonder if there only was surveillance and monitoring that could have provided these figures to the government or anyone who can bother the slightest to actually loving SEARCH FOR INFORMATION: Why the lovely attitude? You could have just posted all that without being a complete rear end in a top hat.
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 19:24
|
|
|
VitalSigns posted:Is there any reason to think the UK didn't import a whole bunch of cases. Weren't like 20 people on a plane to Amsterdam found to have omicron the day after it was first identified? Is there any reason to suspect that South Africa is the origin of Omicron strains BA.1 and BA.2 and that it hasn't previously been circulating throughout Europe undetected?
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 19:29
|
|
|
cant cook creole bream posted:Are these hard to come by for you in the USA? You are adorable Depending on in-store availability on average it's easier for me to get illicit narcotics than it is for at home covid tests, availability seems to come and go which leads to really nasty hoarding behaviors when stock does show up. cr0y fucked around with this message at 19:31 on Dec 13, 2021 |
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 19:29
|
|
|
Faster just to say no. Kills the same != doesn't kill
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 19:29
|
|
|
cant cook creole bream posted:Are these hard to come by for you in the USA? Rapid tests are obscenely hard to get in Ontario. You can pay $40 per test to have them done for you at a pharmacy, or order from relatively obscure online sites for about $15 a test. There's absolutely no way to walk into a store and purchase a rapid test - it's not even a supply issue, it's just not a thing - I'm not sure if there's something preventing authorization or what, but you can't purchase them retail. It's a big controversy because the federal government gave ontario a shitload of rapid tests, which have all been distributed but apparently not used (they all went to big businesses who basically have them collecting dust on a shelf somewhere). I just had a PCR test done that I had to lie about because of our ridiculous requirements - my only symptom was a sore throat, which isn't enough to allow you to take a symptomatic PCR test, but disqualifies you from taking a asymptomatic PCR / rapid test.
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 19:31
|
|
|
Blitter posted:Gosh, gee I wonder if there only was surveillance and monitoring that could have provided these figures to the government or anyone who can bother the slightest to actually loving SEARCH FOR INFORMATION: This is surprising and interesting information. Germany is still on a level where it's maybe a few hundred O cases total, compared to 20.000 delta cases a day and I assumed it would be similar. But I guess the UK tends to be quicker on these kind of things. Also I guess there's a difference between the ratio of new cases and the ratio of active cases. The later would have been less plausible to have caught up. But yeah, you're coming of as a bit of an rear end in a top hat there. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 19:37 on Dec 13, 2021 |
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 19:34
|
|
|
Solkanar512 posted:Why the lovely attitude? You could have just posted all that without being a complete rear end in a top hat. I have no idea why people feel compelled to come up with their own competing theories or denials and then post without some data to confirm or deny their speculation. Many non d&d regulars get poo poo on for exactly that approach and are repeatedly told the premise of this subforum is informed and data driven posts not twitter bullshit or zero effort blind speculation. This is information made public and it is *very* easy to find. It's literally linked to the public announcement from the PM. I actually thought I was being kind of snarky not a complete rear end in a top hat! I'll tone that post down. Blitter fucked around with this message at 19:40 on Dec 13, 2021 |
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 19:36
|
|
|
Denmark and the UK's omicron progression is going to uh, inform the world imo: https://twitter.com/ProfPHansen/status/1470028370075435020 First 2 known cases on November 27th, and will dominate delta by tomorrow night, in an 80% vaccinated population. My nurse and doctor friends are absolutely crushed by the prospect of this on top of the ongoing delta cases. I hope everyone is being suitably wary and stays safe.
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 19:48
|
|
|
Blitter posted:Denmark and the UK's omicron progression is going to uh, inform the world imo: I particularly liked this one from Denmark  Also, norwegian health derpartment just said the numbers from Denmark suggest that Omicron is no milder than Delta, which if true is a bit yikes.
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 19:51
|
|
|
TheRat posted:Also, norwegian health derpartment just said the numbers from Denmark suggest that Omicron is no milder than Delta, which if true is a bit yikes. Link?
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 20:04
|
|
|
Notorious R.I.M. posted:Is there any reason to suspect that South Africa is the origin of Omicron strains BA.1 and BA.2 and that it hasn't previously been circulating throughout Europe undetected? There's no reason to suspect that SA is the origin, but the theory that it has been circulating undetected in it's current form is extremely shaky given how quickly it's now taking off in places with good surveillance and ongoing very high Delta epidemics. It had no doubt made it's way to other countries shortly before detection in SA, but I don't see any way Jorge Cabellero's speculation that it circulated in September and was squashed by Delta could be correct unless it was some ancestral form. Main Paineframe posted:I love how with every variant we have to spend pages arguing over the propriety of the statement "it hasn't killed anyone yet", even though there is not yet any proven case of the variant killing anyone, as if we have a responsibility to ignore facts and data for the sake of rhetorical impact because Something Awful Dot Com is on the frontline of the meme wars or something. What's annoying is seeing people pretend that "well no one has died" is evidence that omicron is less deadly, or not worrying. It's not any such thing and it's the same old grasping at straws poo poo people in this thread have been doing for the last year. Stickman fucked around with this message at 20:17 on Dec 13, 2021 |
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 20:14
|
|
|
Owlofcreamcheese posted:Link? https://www.nrk.no/urix/tall-fra-danmark_-omikron-forer-til-like-mange-innleggelser-som-delta-1.15769977
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 20:15
|
|
|
Tiny Timbs posted:Faster just to say no. Kills the same != doesn't kill Technically nobody is saying it doesn't kill today either, just endlessly harping on the fact that no deaths have been confirmed yet as if that matters and the arrow of time doesn't move relentlessly forward Reminds me of the people harping on the fact that the India variant was only in India last April as if only the present moment mattered and that somehow it meant that the virus wasn't gonna do what it did, just grasping at straws
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 20:23
|
|
|
Stickman posted:There's no reason to suspect that SA is the origin, but the theory that it has been circulating undetected in it's current form is extremely shaky given how quickly it's now taking off in places with good surveillance and ongoing very high Delta epidemics. It had no doubt made it's way to other countries shortly before detection in SA, but I don't see any way Jorge Cabellero's speculation that it circulated in September and was squashed by Delta could be correct unless it was some ancestral form. https://virological.org/t/omicron-is-a-multiply-recombinant-set-of-variants-that-have-evolved-over-many-months/775 Title: Omicron is a Multiply Recombinant Set of Variants That Have Evolved Over Many Months quote:Over the last several weeks, a novel variant of concern (VOC) of SARS-CoV-2, designated B.1.1.569, has appeared in South Africa and is rapidly spreading around the world. Within the last week or so, two sub-variant species have been identified, named BA.1 and BA.2. While it has already been noted that the two sub-variants are recombinants, it is not generally appreciated how multiply recombinant they are, nor is it yet clear from what progenitor Omicron arose, or over what time scale. I am being reminded of how Delta was originally B.1.617 which was then subdivided into B.1.617.1, B.1.617.2, and B.1.617.3, and it was B.1.617.2 that took off and became the primary Delta lineage.
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 20:32
|
|
|
e: misread the policy e: double edit — here's a good (different) policy update/change to share w/ your folks https://twitter.com/Alexander_Tin/status/1470402007718678535 Petey fucked around with this message at 21:53 on Dec 13, 2021 |
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 21:08
|
|
|
VitalSigns posted:Technically nobody is saying it doesn't kill today either, just endlessly harping on the fact that no deaths have been confirmed yet as if that matters and the arrow of time doesn't move relentlessly forward Then they should hurry up and confirm some deaths so you can stop being annoying. it's not the first literal confirmed death that matters, what people are really waiting for is death data in general, of which there is none because no one with a confirmed case is managing to die so far.
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 21:23
|
|
|
Owlofcreamcheese posted:Then they should hurry up and confirm some deaths so you can stop being annoying. Yes, this is correct. Nobody is saying that Omicron is harmless, or that you can't die from it and the first death is absolutely meaningless on the grand scale of things. We're waiting for the first 100 or so, to have any sort of data on the fatality. It makes makes a huge difference if that happens within the first 10.000 infections or the first billion.
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 21:53
|
|
|
Why is the focus on if it causes death? If the hospitals are overloaded with people needing ambulances, nurses and oxygen it's still really bad and could cause health system collapse, no?
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 21:57
|
|
|
droll posted:Why is the focus on if it causes death? If the hospitals are overloaded with people needing ambulances, nurses and oxygen it's still really bad and could cause health system collapse, no? Sure, but that's not much different than what's already happening.
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 22:02
|
|
|
It's about to accelerate
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 22:05
|
|
|
droll posted:It's about to accelerate Maybe? We aren't sure about that yet, it seems.
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 22:08
|
|
|
How are u posted:Maybe? We aren't sure about that yet, it seems. Denmark is about to find out! Meanwhile, booster Friday for me. GF already got booster as she has been administering vaccines.
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 22:15
|
|
|
droll posted:Why is the focus on if it causes death? If the hospitals are overloaded with people needing ambulances, nurses and oxygen it's still really bad and could cause health system collapse, no? Right now people are very focused on death rates because the only country with enough omicron to be generating any data either isn't generating data, or IS generating data that is the insanely different than what anyone expected.  Everyone is sitting around holding their breath to see it get to denmark or the US or something and go 'oh well, now people died, south africa was just being crazy reporting their deaths" which is honestly the most likely outcome, but every day omicron sucks at killing people is a day south africa is getting a point towards "no, they reported it right, it's the virus that changed"
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 22:17
|
|
|
Owlofcreamcheese posted:the only country with enough omicron to be generating any data Uh, yea, about that https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1470491702725124109
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 22:21
|
|
|
Petey posted:e: misread the policy Wow, maybe they should consider sending tests out to whoever loving wants them then! e: to be clear it's unambiguously good that they are suggesting this, but it makes that flippant poo poo Psaki pulled the other day even more irritating.
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 22:23
|
|
|
TheRat posted:Uh, yea, about that https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1470491702725124109 I mean, that is what I was saying, going by current UK data the death rate of omicron is 0.0% exactly. Which is probably not meaningful, it's too soon, so everyone is waiting for people to die so they can get more realistic numbers. Because there is only one country on earth where the "it's too soon" doesn't apply and the numbers there are extremely screwy beyond all reason.
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 22:37
|
|
|
Western Australia has announced it will reopen its borders to the rest of the country and the world on February 5. Unless I'm mistaken, by that point it will be the last place in the Western world to have relinquished a COVID-zero strategy and status quo. The only remaining places will be China/HK/Taiwan and a handful of tiny South Pacific nations. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-13/wa-border-open-date-announced-by-mark-mcgowan/100683620
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 22:44
|
|
|
If Omicron is really all that more infectious, I wonder if it'll be the one to end China's attempt at zero covid.
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 22:50
|
|
|
Stickman posted:There's no reason to suspect that SA is the origin, but the theory that it has been circulating undetected in it's current form is extremely shaky given how quickly it's now taking off in places with good surveillance and ongoing very high Delta epidemics. It had no doubt made it's way to other countries shortly before detection in SA, but I don't see any way Jorge Cabellero's speculation that it circulated in September and was squashed by Delta could be correct unless it was some ancestral form. One can find a nice overview of omicron mutation accumulations on the site below. Variants with various combinations of the mutations have been circulating in the population for a year. It is only now that some lucky virus managed to collect them all, probably via recombination with co-infecting variants in some poor schmucks. https://galaxyproject.eu/posts/2021/11/29/omicron-and-galaxy/
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 22:55
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 11:13 |
|
|
You folks seriously don’t remember the same thing playing out with Delta? https://twitter.com/Rajeev_The_King/status/1391175811647082497 https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1405167147756797958
|
|
#
?
Dec 13, 2021 22:58
|
|
