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Beeb just called it for the Lib Dems  e; In the year 2065 the Thunderbirds will start saving people Ms Adequate fucked around with this message at 05:26 on Dec 17, 2021 |
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Dec 17, 2021 05:23
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Apraxin posted:34% swing and a 6k Lib Dem majority, hahaha. They got almost half again as many votes as the Conservatives. Goddamn. Lib Dem charts were... accurate?
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Dec 17, 2021 05:24
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It looks like one of those council byelection results where like 100 people vote: https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1471696617950568452
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Dec 17, 2021 05:24
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Just once I would like the Loony Party to win to see how they handle things.
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Dec 17, 2021 05:25
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Would LOVE to be a spider under the table in assorted Tory centers of power right about now. They'll have been reassuring themselves that this can't possibly be happening all night and now it has. I do not like the piss diamonds one bit but this... this does bring a smile to my face.
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Dec 17, 2021 05:28
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Lol
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Dec 17, 2021 05:29
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Back to tory policy with a frowny face, hooray.
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Dec 17, 2021 05:29
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I really think we need some insight into how the Lib Dems completely supplanted Labour in this constituency, too. That's a huge swing in two years.
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Dec 17, 2021 05:30
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Lib dems are always the natural swing for tories who for some reason can't vote tory.
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Dec 17, 2021 05:31
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OwlFancier posted:Lib dems are always the natural swing for tories who for some reason can't vote tory. Yep don't want to vote for change but hate the Tories ATM, Yellow Tories it is!
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Dec 17, 2021 05:39
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Bear in mind that Labour's candidate was literally Owen Peterson's former aide. They tried so, so hard for that Tory swing vote.
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Dec 17, 2021 05:42
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Unless my statistics are bad which they might be because I did fail it, I think you can get those results just with a lower turnout and also a disproportionate number of labour and tories staying home, plus a swing from tory to lib. I assume some of the labour vote went lib too but I would be surprised if it is a direct transfer. Also depends what happened to the brexit party vote.
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Dec 17, 2021 05:44
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4:32 Result in full Helen Morgan (LD) 17,957 (47.14%) Neil Shastri-Hurst (Cons) 12,032 (31.59%) Ben Wood (Lab) 3,686 (9.68%) Duncan Kerr (Green) 1,738 (4.56%) Kirsty Walmsley (Reform) 1,427 (3.75%) Andrea Allen (UKIP) 378 (0.99%) Martin Daubney (Reclaim) 375 (0.98%) Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 118 (0.31%) Suzie Akers Smith (Ind) 95 (0.25%) Russell Dean (PartyParty) 90 (0.24%) James Elliot (Heritage) 79 (0.21%) Boris Been-Bunged (Rejoin) 58 (0.15%) Earl Jesse (FA) 57 (0.15%) Yolande Kenward (ND) 3 (0.01%) Liberal Democrat majority 5,925; Turnout 38,093 (46.28%) General election 2019: North Shropshire[12] Party Candidate Votes % ±% Conservative Owen Paterson 35,444 62.7 +2.2 Labour Graeme Currie 12,495 22.1 -9.0 Liberal Democrats Helen Morgan 5,643 10.0 +4.7 Green John Adams 1,790 3.2 +0.1 Shropshire Party Robert Jones 1,141 2.0 N/A Majority 22,949 40.6 +11.2 Turnout 56,513 67.9 -1.1
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Dec 17, 2021 05:50
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OwlFancier posted:Unless my statistics are bad which they might be because I did fail it, I think you can get those results just with a lower turnout and also a disproportionate number of labour and tories staying home, plus a swing from tory to lib. Turnout was two thirds of what it was in the last GE. Labour lost nearly nine thousand votes, the Tories lost over twenty-three thousand votes, and the Lib Dems gained over twelve thousand votes (giving them considerably more than Labour managed in 2019 - 17,957 votes versus 12,495). So a key factor was that a huge number of Conservatives stayed home, but this is also a genuinely impressive result for the Lib Dems that makes them one of the top two parties in the constituency and pushes Labour into a distant third.
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Dec 17, 2021 05:55
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Which, I think, would again suggest that it is largely accomplishable by labour just not turning up and the tories switching to the libs or not turning up either. It doesn't really require any special talent far beyond the effect that starmer has thus far had on every single election he has contested which is to absolutely obliterate labour's vote share. If you are a red lib I don't see why you wouldn't vote for starmer, so either he's just cratered the labour vote in general or he has such terrible campaigning capability that he can't even court the people he's specifically aiming for which would be liberals and tories of various colours to the point that they all want to go lib dem instead. OwlFancier fucked around with this message at 06:01 on Dec 17, 2021 |
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Dec 17, 2021 05:57
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Kin posted:
In Finland its maternal leave 105 days, starting 30 days before predicted date of birth. Can be started up to 50 days before, but total is still 105. Then there is at most 54 days of paternal leave, 18 of which can overlap maternal, all of which must be kept before the child os 2 years old. On top of this is 158 days of parental leave that can be kept by either parent. Of multiple children are born at the same time this increases by 60 per each.
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Dec 17, 2021 07:44
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Communist Thoughts posted:If you catch covid remember to wank to boost your immune system or find someone else with covid to make love to A nice idea friend, but Peaches would never sing "make love the pain away" I'd prefer someone to bang me so good that my T-cells sing Christmas carols
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Dec 17, 2021 07:56
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The Guardian article rather glosses over the fact that Labour's performance was utterly dreadful, I feel: https://www.theguardian.com/politic...count-continues
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Dec 17, 2021 08:01
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Ominous times for the squirrels of North Shropshire
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Dec 17, 2021 08:03
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Just remember - and this is what I'm going to cling on to when my next one is born in March - the first six weeks is hell. But after that it becomes awesome : they can smile, they develop routine, they visibly grow in character and intelligence (and size!) virtually every day.
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Dec 17, 2021 08:04
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Apraxin posted:It looks like one of those council byelection results where like 100 people vote:
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Dec 17, 2021 08:04
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To me it seems like a very idiosyncratic gently caress the tories vote. I wouldn't draw any great conclusions about Labour or the Libs from it. Mostly, it's just incredibly funny and it's good to know a lot of conservatives will be feeling pretty miserable.
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Dec 17, 2021 08:11
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The Perfect Element posted:Just remember - and this is what I'm going to cling on to when my next one is born in March - the first six weeks is hell. But after that it becomes awesome : they can smile, they develop routine, they visibly grow in character and intelligence (and size!) virtually every day. My niece is eight weeks old now, I saw her when she was six weeks and also more recently, even that two week gap it's remarkable how much she's changed. The poor mite seems to be having more tummy trouble than her older sister did, she gets a lot of hard to pass gas and when I last saw her she hadn't pooped in three days, so she was pretty grizzly. But even then it was amazing how much she wanted to be around people, she's so sociable, lots of smiles. When she was particularly bad I rocked her in her pram in a dark room and sang to her. She gazed straight into my eyes for awhile and then fell asleep. I love her very much.
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Dec 17, 2021 08:12
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Kin posted:How does it work in other countries or is paternity leave just one of those things that are free market hosed and it's down to how generous a company is to pay you to be off looking after your new kid. Wikipedia has a big list by country: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parental_leave#By_continent. If it's accurate it's fairly variable in Europe. As you'd expect the Nordic countries are pretty OK, but the surprise winner is Lithuania with two years paid at 70% or a year at 100% either-parent leave on top of the paid individual leave. The UK does look pretty ungenerous out of the wealthier countries.
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Dec 17, 2021 08:13
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Just woke up to a surprise envelope on the door mat with £90 of vouchers and cash! It's from the charity I used to help out at. When the DWP finally deemed me LCWR I had to stop officially, so it's nice of them to do that. It'll be fun blowing the £40 Aldi voucher on non-staple non-sensible stuff.
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Dec 17, 2021 08:13
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Looke posted:It gets easier my friend We tried that for a couple of days. Me going to bed at 8pm and getting up at 3am to take over until my other half got up at 9am. Tricky thing is, I'm the only one that can drive and my other half has insomnia and can't ever get to sleep earlier than she needs to. So when it came to the next day I was often a bit too exhausted to drive to do things like pick up the groceries or take them to visit family members or hospital appointments, etc. It also wouldn't work for when I go back to work in a few weeks so we've recently swapped to each taking turns to get up for a feed through the night. I go to bed at 11pm while she feeds 12 to 1. I'm up at 3 to 4 to give him another feed, then she's up at 6 to 7 for the next one, then we're both up 9 to 10 before she has a nap to top up sleep. It's been a mixed bag but I think that's mostly because his daily routine has been messed about with us having to travel to things for him (like registering birth) meaning we've had to introduce semi random formula bottle feeds. Plus he has a lot of reflux so that keeps him up. Anyway, sorry for baby chat but it just twigged that the government (and my crappy company) think that 2 weeks is just enough time to get this stuff sorted.
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Dec 17, 2021 08:16
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Bug Squash posted:To me it seems like a very idiosyncratic gently caress the tories vote. I wouldn't draw any great conclusions about Labour or the Libs from it. Mostly, it's just incredibly funny and it's good to know a lot of conservatives will be feeling pretty miserable. Starmer has spent the last what, 9 months? specifically courting the Tory vote. He was campaigning in North Shropshire. It really is bad for Labour that a seat they are traditionally 2nd in has swung massively to the Lib Dems as it repeats exactly what has been happening in every other by-election this year. The Labour vote stays home.
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Dec 17, 2021 08:18
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serious gaylord posted:Starmer has spent the last what, 9 months? specifically courting the Tory vote. He was campaigning in North Shropshire.  drat you jumbly crabbin! this is another fine mess you’ve gotten us into!
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Dec 17, 2021 08:32
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serious gaylord posted:Starmer has spent the last what, 9 months? specifically courting the Tory vote. He was campaigning in North Shropshire. Yeah, the take home from this is both leaders are unpopular and need to go. Though it is nice to see that public opinion is actually turning against Boris and we an expect some entertaining knifing in the near future. I wonder if this is the real reason Sunak has returned to the country.....
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Dec 17, 2021 08:38
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Gin chat: something something law changed 5+ years ago so small companies could brew liquor. Whiskey is where the money is, but that requires leaving it in the barrel for ages. Longer the better. So, what do you do with a distillery while you wait? You make gin! This us why gin making exploded recently, and in another few years it should get joined by a new boutique whiskey industry.
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Dec 17, 2021 08:38
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Kin posted:Anyway, sorry for baby chat but it just twigged that the government (and my crappy company) think that 2 weeks is just enough time to get this stuff sorted. Yeah lol at that, even it was then there is the sleep regressions etc. You're both doing great and sounds like she is as well. Work can keep their crappy policy and will to deal with you being half asleep. You have other priorities.
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Dec 17, 2021 08:54
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Bug Squash posted:To me it seems like a very idiosyncratic gently caress the tories vote. I wouldn't draw any great conclusions about Labour or the Libs from it. Mostly, it's just incredibly funny and it's good to know a lot of conservatives will be feeling pretty miserable. Yeah I think the only thing you can read into it is that the people of that constituency are very angry at the Tories, no doubt because of the whole ‘trying to call a vote to ignore punishment for corruptions’ thing which is obviously felt more in Paterson’s former stomping ground so I dunno how that actually even translates elsewhere anyway
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Dec 17, 2021 08:58
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The world may be a gently caress but watching smug little Tory twats like Dowden have to wipe poo poo off their foreheads this morning is a rare pleasure
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Dec 17, 2021 09:04
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Noxville posted:Yeah I think the only thing you can read into it is that the people of that constituency are very angry at the Tories, no doubt because of the whole ‘trying to call a vote to ignore punishment for corruptions’ thing which is obviously felt more in Paterson’s former stomping ground so I dunno how that actually even translates elsewhere anyway Thing is that when voters in North Shropshire get angry at the Tories, it's generally Labour who benefits. The Lib Dems utterly usurping them in the constituency is worthy of comment and discussion, especially since both Starmer and Rayner personally campaigned there.
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Dec 17, 2021 09:04
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Darth Walrus posted:Thing is that when voters in North Shropshire get angry at the Tories, it's generally Labour who benefits. The Lib Dems utterly usurping them in the constituency is worthy of comment and discussion, especially since both Starmer and Rayner personally campaigned there. Yeah, Labour'll be spinning it as how they discreetly stepped aside to allow the Lib Dems to beat the Tory but it doesn't feel that way to me.
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Dec 17, 2021 09:07
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Pistol_Pete posted:Yeah, Labour'll be spinning it as how they discreetly stepped aside to allow the Lib Dems to beat the Tory but it doesn't feel that way to me. Again, the obvious question there is 'and why couldn't they do it themselves?'. They were operating from a vastly stronger position, and got completely skunked.
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Dec 17, 2021 09:14
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Grey Hunter posted:Kirsty Walmsley (Reform) 1,427 (3.75%)
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Dec 17, 2021 09:24
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Darth Walrus posted:Again, the obvious question there is 'and why couldn't they do it themselves?'. They were operating from a vastly stronger position, and got completely skunked. I am mildly smug at having won (a little) cash on this by-election despite some.naysayers in here. One of the pointers was that the Libs had taken a clutch of Council seats there at the last locals, you rarely do these things overnight despite appearances. Their by-election machine is also really formidable, far better than Labour's. I think the main answer is though that the Labour right spent years trashing their own brand, to the point where most of the country just don't feel they can be associated with it. In comparison the Lib Dems are a fairly banal empty space, Brexit is over so it's not as big a blocker, they can stand for what they want and if enough folk agree they might rally round. Being part of the gang is key for voters in elections like this where policy essentially doesn't matter, and no-one wants to be on Keith's team which they still see as team Corbyn which literally everyone they listen to said was bad. A few good eggs aside, Labour are crap There is no 'new' identity and when one appears it looks like watered down Lib Dem, never mind watered down Tory. Edit: I actually think the Labour vote held up ok, one bet I didn't win was on them to lose their deposit. Zalakwe fucked around with this message at 09:38 on Dec 17, 2021 |
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Dec 17, 2021 09:31
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Pistol_Pete posted:Yeah, Labour'll be spinning it as how they discreetly stepped aside to allow the Lib Dems to beat the Tory but it doesn't feel that way to me. I did see some Keith fanboys saying to vote lib dem on twitter; the party should have sensed the way the wind was blowing and officially stepped aside so they could take credit for dealing a blow to the Tories. Edit: apparently they did, a bit, very quietly though as you can't do it officially officially. Marmaduke! fucked around with this message at 09:38 on Dec 17, 2021 |
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Dec 17, 2021 09:34
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Grey Hunter posted:Yolande Kenward (ND) 3 (0.01%) (gin chat: martinis are good)
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Dec 17, 2021 09:42
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