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Pener Kropoopkin posted:It's also why China is developing a blue water surface navy, even if in a real conflict it'd be useless. China needs to be able to challenge the US on the open oceans to have an international deterrent, and you can't really interdict shipping with submarines. https://twitter.com/DouglasBShaw/status/1471832929198395399
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Dec 19, 2021 10:37
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Yeah, the Chinese fleet isn't some "brown" water force like it was in the 1960s: US wargaming has already shown the PLAN would be dominant in any encounter and that shift is only going to move further in China's direction. In addition, China is now producing more nuclear submarines that will be comparable to the latest Virginia class vessels and likely already has ballistic missile-carrying submarines with capabilities comparable to the Ohio class. The US still has an advantage in raw numbers, but the US sub fleet now has to split its responsibilities between the Russian and Chinese fleets which are only expanding their capabilities. The US is losing both the surface and underwater fight. The US' carriers are really their only real ace in the hole, even then the gap in capabilities is decreasing. The Belt and Road is unlikely to carry the full extend of Chinese trade but it is providing an emergency system that also is simply useful for facilitating the Eurasian trade. That said, if the PLAN can keep the trade lanes in the Indian ocean open, there isn't much the US is going to be able to do. Also, RCEP has been ratified which means pretty much all of East and South-East Asia is going to be tied with the Chinese economy, which means any sort of blockade would be completely unworkable even if the PRC didn't have a fleet. It is why the US is mostly stuck with posturing at this point while desperately trying to shore up its image. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 17:29 on Dec 19, 2021 |
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Dec 19, 2021 17:24
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Ardennes posted:It is why the US is mostly stuck with posturing at this point while desperately trying to shore up its image. the navy transits through the zones China is claiming as Exclusive Economic zones are a bit more aggressive than shoring up image.
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Dec 19, 2021 17:43
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Does anyone actually think there could be a ship-to-ship battle between the US and Chinese navies? It's almost unimaginable. If a conflict was really so imminent, I'd have to think one side would back down or a deal would be reached first. War between first-rate national militaries just doesn't happen anymore, there's too much for both sides to lose.
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Dec 19, 2021 18:04
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Bar Ran Dun posted:the navy transits through the zones China is claiming as Exclusive Economic zones are a bit more aggressive than shoring up image. They are having to back off at this point and even so those patrols are very clearly about just about image. If you follow naval news in the region, it is clear the US is on the back foot. One factor is simply how thinly spread the USN is at this point and that it isn’t capable of a peer-peer conflict especially since it has major assets tied up in the Persian Gulf and the Arctic. Ramrod Hotshot posted:Does anyone actually think there could be a ship-to-ship battle between the US and Chinese navies? It's almost unimaginable. If a conflict was really so imminent, I'd have to think one side would back down or a deal would be reached first. War between first-rate national militaries just doesn't happen anymore, there's too much for both sides to lose. It is about leverage, and you can’t dictate terms if the other side would absolutely wipe the floor with you. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 18:32 on Dec 19, 2021 |
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Dec 19, 2021 18:28
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Ardennes posted:They are having to back off at this point and even so those patrols are very clearly about just about image. If you follow naval news in the region, it is clear the US is on the back foot. they demonstrate that China can’t enforce its international maritime claims.
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Dec 19, 2021 18:35
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:Does anyone actually think there could be a ship-to-ship battle between the US and Chinese navies? It's almost unimaginable. If a conflict was really so imminent, I'd have to think one side would back down or a deal would be reached first. War between first-rate national militaries just doesn't happen anymore, there's too much for both sides to lose. no one goes into war thinking oh hell yes, tens of millions dead. it’s always arrogance or self-delusion or an idealist belief in the rationality of conflict. for a forum that frequently claims we live in “the worst timeline” or whatever, people seem to have a real hard time accepting the historical trajectory of empires in economic decline
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Dec 19, 2021 18:36
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It really can't be overstated how big an advantage it would be to fight a war just off your own coast instead of having to power project across the entire Pacific Ocean.
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Dec 19, 2021 18:37
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Bar Ran Dun posted:they demonstrate that China can’t enforce its international maritime claims. Just like Russian bombers buzzing around show that the West doesn’t control its own air space? All it shows is that China wasn’t willing to use force to ram US ships but that may change. If there was a war those US assets would be toast in the time it took a hypersonic missile to knock them out. —— Also, not only Taiwan but the entire sea zone around it is covered by long range Chinese assets. It is why the entire Taiwan issue is a smoke screen from a military point of view. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 18:41 on Dec 19, 2021 |
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Dec 19, 2021 18:38
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Ardennes posted:China wasn’t willing to use force right they can’t or won’t enforce their maritime claims when the USN gets involved. the flip side of this is we won’t do anything about the island and bullshit little radio stations.
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Dec 19, 2021 18:45
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the big international maritime treaties are not self enforcing treaties. each one has to be adopted by its signatory states as laws. by this I mean basically there is the treaty version of the rules and then the version each individual flag / port state has of the rules that are the laws for that country. China wants to be able to assert its interpretation are the rules. they’re still not able to do that when the USN gets involved. generally we enforce the treaty version of things. this might not be that way forever, buts it’s still a fact now, that  don’t change.
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Dec 19, 2021 18:55
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Bar Ran Dun posted:right they can’t or won’t enforce their maritime claims when the USN gets involved. Eh, the PLAN would wipe the floor with the USN in the SCS. The SCS is littered with airbases and missile sites not to mention a ton of other assets. It would be a shooting gallery. The PRC actually doesn’t want to fight a war because it pointless if you are actually winning through economic and political means. It doesn’t mean it would be scared to take apart the US’ aging overstretched fleet if the situation forced itself. I mean it isn’t just me but the US Navy itself admits it as much and the situation is getting worse. —— I think you are working from info that is 20-30 years out of date. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 19:00 on Dec 19, 2021 |
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Dec 19, 2021 18:57
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Ardennes posted:I mean it isn’t just me but the US Navy itself admits it as much and the situation is getting worse. it has been about 20 years since I was on a ship in the SCS. and I wouldn’t disagree it’s getting worse.
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Dec 19, 2021 19:05
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Bar Ran Dun posted:generally we enforce the treaty version of things then you should stop!!!
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Dec 19, 2021 19:05
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Bar Ran Dun posted:it has been about 20 years since I was on a ship in the SCS. In the last 20 years, a lot has changed. That said, I think a shooting war is unlikely since 1. both sides have plenty of nukes and 2. war itself isn’t useful for either side. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 19:17 on Dec 19, 2021 |
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Dec 19, 2021 19:14
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Ardennes posted:war itself isn’t useful for either side. are we sure that the tens or hundred of thousands of teenagers raised on imperial propaganda know this? are we sure that the officer core of the end of history knows this? are we sure there are still sufficient profits to keep the nihilists in the security services satisfied? people keep saying things like this as if capitalism has somehow obsoleted war and I just don't understand where it comes from
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Dec 19, 2021 19:31
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Centrist Committee posted:are we sure that the tens or hundred of thousands of teenagers raised on imperial propaganda know this? are we sure that the officer core of the end of history knows this? are we sure there are still sufficient profits to keep the nihilists in the security services satisfied? It isn’t that different than the situation in 1945 and we are still here. War itself won’t go away (Yemen/Ethiopia etc) but war between the great powers is just too costly and disruptive to capitalism itself. The current structure of capitalist couldn’t be sustained in an actual ww3 scenario, and I think both sides know it. Admittedly, there will be a point where the US will know there will be no way for it to win but it will also be far beyond the inflection point for it to do much. At this point, we are hoping that the UK and Australia do the “heavy lifting .”
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Dec 19, 2021 19:47
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Centrist Committee posted:then you should stop!!! and you don’t know what you’re talking about. some of these treaties well, they stop this 
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Dec 19, 2021 20:18
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I was just making a joke about your use of “we” in that context
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Dec 19, 2021 20:27
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Centrist Committee posted:I was just making a joke about your use of “we” in that context I used to do SOLAS work specially the hazardous materials and grain stability section.
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Dec 19, 2021 21:01
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I will win ww4
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Dec 19, 2021 21:46
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Good soup! posted:I will win ww4 until i stab you in the back during ww5
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Dec 19, 2021 22:16
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fart
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Dec 20, 2021 04:30
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Mantis42 posted:I'm so tired of the "pit bulls = black people" talking point used by "the pittie nation". Disingenuous garbage. i think instead of blaming black people, you should blame the people who (historically) owned them, yes. Anime Bernie Bro has issued a correction as of 04:39 on Dec 20, 2021 |
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Dec 20, 2021 04:36
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Ok, no one should own either black people OR pit bulls. Sounds like a good compromise to me.
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Dec 20, 2021 05:36
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lollontee posted:until i stab you in the back during ww5 my children will avenge me during ww6 😎
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Dec 20, 2021 14:21
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and on the 7th ww, the thread rested
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Dec 20, 2021 16:42
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Ardennes posted:war between the great powers is just too costly and disruptive to capitalism itself they said this before the other world wars too. the situations are different but at the time everyone sincerely believed this the same way they sincerely believe it today. I don’t buy it
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Dec 20, 2021 17:35
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indigi posted:they said this before the other world wars too. the situations are different but at the time everyone sincerely believed this the same way they sincerely believe it today. I don’t buy it They didn’t have nukes, and the assumption was that they could win without the actual structure of society being affected. In this case, it may be even messier than back in the Cold War since there are now a bunch of other nuclear armed states even though the total number of nukes has been reduced since the 1970s.
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Dec 20, 2021 17:38
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Ardennes posted:They didn’t have nukes, and the assumption was that they could win without the actual structure of society being affected. In this case, it may be even messier than back in the Cold War since there are now a bunch of other nuclear armed states even though the total number of nukes has been reduced since the 1970s. yeah but everyone in charge of the military and associated political/business interests is still myopic and/or stupid and will convince themselves it’s “winnable.” and a decent number of them believe they literally have god on their side
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Dec 20, 2021 17:41
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indigi posted:yeah but everyone in charge of the military and associated political/business interests is still myopic and/or stupid and will convince themselves it’s “winnable.” and a decent number of them believe they literally have god on their side Obviously, anything can always happen, but at the same time capital does not want to throw away the game if there is hope. Honestly, a lot of American corporations (look at Disney) are fine with a Chinese dominated world if they can get a slice of the pie. It is also why XI has been relatively selective in his targets even though he is obviously pushing China in a more state directed economy. Also, Russia and China have both been upgrading their capabilities to send a crystal clear message.
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Dec 20, 2021 17:49
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yeah I think it’s unlikely but I’m not certain about it.
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Dec 20, 2021 17:51
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physical manufacturing is way more interconnected now. trade was more of finished goods then. now poo poo gets moved around during its creation. you might make a leather boot upper in the us, then ship the upper to China to get the sole glued on there. the sole having been shipped from another country. then everything gets shipped back to the US for finishing. then finished shoes get shipped out for export and possibly localization.
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Dec 20, 2021 18:01
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Ardennes posted:Obviously, anything can always happen, but at the same time capital does not want to throw away the game if there is hope. Honestly, a lot of American corporations (look at Disney) are fine with a Chinese dominated world if they can get a slice of the pie. I don’t think this is a useful anthropomorphism. capital doesn’t have hopes and it isn’t a unified thing. if anything, the last 40 years of anti-climate change propaganda and the last president to check the use of nuclear weapons getting domed in texas should go to show capitalism for the apocalyptic death cult that it is. no, while disney may see profit opportunities in china, I see the finance and knowledge wing of the imperium about to get routed by the industrial and extractivist wing.
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Dec 20, 2021 20:24
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Centrist Committee posted:the last president to check the use of nuclear weapons getting domed in texas That is a weird takeaway about the Kennedy administration. The man who uplifted McNamara and okayed the Bay of Pigs was not some sort of covert peacenik lmao
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Dec 20, 2021 21:17
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oh I was thinking truman keeping the handsome generals from nuking korea whoops
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Dec 20, 2021 21:36
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Maximo Roboto posted:That is a weird takeaway about the Kennedy administration. The man who uplifted McNamara and okayed the Bay of Pigs was not some sort of covert peacenik lmao I mean he okay'd bay of pigs and then didn't support it at all so the CIA would eat poo poo super hard (its why they had him killed)
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Dec 21, 2021 03:37
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Grapplejack posted:I mean he okay'd bay of pigs and then didn't support it at all so the CIA would eat poo poo super hard (its why they had him killed) it is a wise question to consider - did jfk do it out of incompetence and saving face, or did he really believe he could tame the beast? the magic bullet didn't care
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Dec 21, 2021 03:54
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Maximo Roboto posted:That is a weird takeaway about the Kennedy administration. The man who uplifted McNamara and okayed the Bay of Pigs was not some sort of covert peacenik lmao its like spicy wings. regular spicy wings are spicy, but the freaks who run things want even SPICER WINGS until it melts your face off.
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Dec 21, 2021 03:59
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indigi posted:yeah but everyone in charge of the military and associated political/business interests is still myopic and/or stupid and will convince themselves it’s “winnable.” and a decent number of them believe they literally have god on their side There might not be a clear winner but you can be the one who loses the least.
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Dec 21, 2021 20:56
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