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WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

"
Pentagon sent an assessment team to Ukraine to evaluate Kyiv's air defense needs earlier this month, spox John Kirby said
"

Also the US has now invited Russia to the bargaining table for a peaceful resolution. Boy I sure like our Track record with peace agreements for our allies without our allies present

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 03:12 on Dec 21, 2021

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Cugel the Clever
Apr 5, 2009
I LOVE AMERICA AND CAPITALISM DESPITE BEING POOR AS FUCK. I WILL NEVER RETIRE BUT HERE'S ANOTHER 200$ FOR UKRAINE, SLAVA

Vasukhani posted:

States have interests, Ukraine is a security interest for Russia. It isn't for the US. American actions prove this. American support is unlikely to meaningfully change the outcome of any conflict and will be small.
The reason folks keep dunking on you is because you are bizarrely fixated on the extremely narrow point that the US will not take direct military action to defend Ukraine should Putin prove determined to invade. I think everyone ITT openly agrees on that point! But you persist in bandying it about in response to talk of the West doing anything to deter Russian aggression, which is a complete non sequitur. You've done this in response to folks arguing the West should take what steps it can, which makes people take your posts as arguing that the West should do nothing. This leads to folks thinking you're being deliberately evasive.

Let's make this easy:

1. Do you acknowledge that the US and European states have a security interest in seeing Russia not gobble up sympathetic states on the European periphery?
2. Do you acknowledge that their are mechanisms short of direct military action that the West can take to shift Putin's calculus against committing wanton belligerence?
3. Do you think that the West should pursue these mechanisms? Why or why not?
4. Do you think that an invasion of Ukraine serves Russia's long-term security interest on the global scale? How so?

piL
Sep 20, 2007
(__|\\\\)
Taco Defender

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:


Also the US has now invited Russia to the bargaining table for a peaceful resolution. Boy I sure like our Track record with peace agreements for our allies without our allies present

Are you referring to the Biden Putin call on Friday or something else?

TropicalCoke
Feb 14, 2012
Putin will achieve pan slavism

aphid_licker
Jan 7, 2009


Pls post more interesting or wacky news instead of endlessly going in circles on that one point with that one guy

wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019

Cugel the Clever posted:

1. Do you acknowledge that the US and European states have a security interest in seeing Russia not gobble up sympathetic states on the European periphery?
2. Do you acknowledge that their are mechanisms short of direct military action that the West can take to shift Putin's calculus against committing wanton belligerence?
3. Do you think that the West should pursue these mechanisms? Why or why not?
4. Do you think that an invasion of Ukraine serves Russia's long-term security interest on the global scale? How so?

1. yes? for the US (the country that matters as euro-statelets are very weak) these interests vis a vis ukraine are not a high priority. Containing Putin's Russia generally is, but Ukraine as a specific area of gpc is much lower for US bloc than for Russia.
2. not effective ones!
3. ??
4. Yes. It keeps Ukraine in russia's sphere

wisconsingreg fucked around with this message at 06:16 on Dec 21, 2021

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

piL posted:

Are you referring to the Biden Putin call on Friday or something else?

White House National Security Advisor @JakeSullivan46 tells his Russian counterpart that the U.S. is ready to engage in diplomacy. He added that "progress can only occur in an environment of de-escalation rather than escalation

https://liveuamap.com/pics/2021/12/20/22362366_0.jpg

""
State Department has raised the warning level for Ukrainian travel to level 4. "Reports that Russia is planning for significant military action against Ukraine. Conditions are unpredictable and could deteriorate with little notice"
""

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 06:22 on Dec 21, 2021

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:


State Department has raised the warning level for Ukrainian travel to level 4. "Reports that Russia is planning for significant military action against Ukraine. Conditions are unpredictable and could deteriorate with little notice"

truly i chose an optimal time to go visit

wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:


""
State Department has raised the warning level for Ukrainian travel to level 4. "Reports that Russia is planning for significant military action against Ukraine. Conditions are unpredictable and could deteriorate with little notice"
""

this isn't new. It has been level 4 with 70% of the world for weeks if not months

wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019
From last month

https://ua.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-kyiv-ukraine-4/

quote:

The Travel Advisory for Ukraine remains at Level 4 – Do Not Travel in Crimea due to abuses by Russian occupation authorities, in the eastern parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts due to armed conflict, and for all of Ukraine due to COVID-19.

wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019
Sensationalist twitter aggregators aren't actually the best place for news

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki
they reduced it to three so they could bump it back up to four with a different explanation than the previous four

seriously a friend messaged me about it and i was like "wait is that news? literally everywhere has been l4 do not travel because covid since 2020", despite the lolworthy implication that anywhere else is worse than the US wrt pandemic status

Qtotonibudinibudet fucked around with this message at 06:43 on Dec 21, 2021

wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019
I mean they still say "reconsider" (lvl 3) due to the conflict, and do not (lvl4) due to COVID. no indication that it was bumped down on the archive, but if you were watching this for travel reasons I trust you here

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin
https://mobile.twitter.com/annaholligan/status/1472864981846831108

Hopefully the commander-in-chef of these monkeys with a grenade gets some kind of comeuppance

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Hungary has decided to finally join EU vaccine procurement. How peculiar. :thunk:

https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-joins-eu-third-vaccine-procurement-scheme-omicron-variant/


Edit: In more Hungary news, they’re also refusing to comply with ECJ ruling against their immigration law.

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 16:12 on Dec 21, 2021

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-us-mercenaries-plan-chemical-attack-ukraine/

quote:

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu claimed Tuesday that U.S. mercenaries were preparing Ukrainian special forces and radical armed groups for “active hostilities” in eastern Ukraine, and had delivered “an unidentified chemical component” to the region “to commit provocations.”

Shoygu did not provide evidence for his allegations, which he read from a prepared statement at a gathering of Russia’s top military commanders with President Vladimir Putin in attendance. The charges come as top officials from the U.S. and its NATO allies have issued repeated warnings about Russian troops massed on the border with Ukraine, and that Moscow may try to invent provocations to justify a new invasion or military strike.

Putin did also do his own bit today, about euphoric triumph march of NATO, which read like a generic Vasukhani post about the natural force of Russia.

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 19:41 on Dec 21, 2021

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

cinci zoo sniper posted:

which read like a generic Vasukhani post about the natural force of Russia.

:lol:

Here's hoping ol' Vlad trips down the stairs sometime soon.

Morrow
Oct 31, 2010
I'm conflicted, because on the one hand I'm down to defend a plucky nation state against an invading empire that used to rule it, but I'm also aware I'm not the one signed up for the dying.

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin
Yeah I watched that and the old botoxed gently caress delivering that to equally old, fat uniformed military farts didn't feel theatrical enough for my comfort. They believe they're in a clash of civilizations and crap like bad infrastructure, COVID and poverty are for rubes who aren't thinking about God and eternity

The more knowledgeable Russia-explainers are starting to sound increasingly nervous
https://mobile.twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527

wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1473301709887877131

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there
You remember what the Spanish flu did to armies in 1919? Troops in the field and omicron are going to be ugly.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Rust Martialis posted:

You remember what the Spanish flu did to armies in 1919? Troops in the field and omicron are going to be ugly.

Troops get vaccines.

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Omicron/Covid probably isn't deadly to young people to have the same impact

(although, big troop deployments would certainly be fertile ground for mutations)

aphid_licker
Jan 7, 2009


How is Sputnik against Omicron? The ladz might be in for a slightly more than usually miserable war, not that it'd change anything about the outcome.

e: yeah no deaths, just bumping along in a BTR in the cold with no sleep while ALSO running a fever miserable.

e: saw a headline in the German news today wondering about how many Ukrainian refugees there's gonna be and where they'll go

aphid_licker fucked around with this message at 23:03 on Dec 21, 2021

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




aphid_licker posted:

How is Sputnik against Omicron? The ladz might be in for a slightly more than usually miserable war, not that it'd change anything about the outcome.

No quality information is available on the subject so far. There’s one study on 11 Argentinian medical workers vaccinated with Sputnik, but that’s not something I’d recommend to judge the shot on.

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

cinci zoo sniper posted:

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-us-mercenaries-plan-chemical-attack-ukraine/

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu claimed Tuesday that U.S. mercenaries were preparing Ukrainian special forces and radical armed groups for “active hostilities” in eastern Ukraine, and had delivered “an unidentified chemical component” to the region “to commit provocations.”

I see the chickens are plotting provocations against the fox again. Not leaving it much choice now. Da, makes sense. Puts together in head. Da.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

GABA ghoul posted:

I see the hens are plotting provocations against the fox again. Not leaving it much choice now. Da, makes sense. Puts together in head. Da.

The false flag won't happen now that the enemy knows Russia knows. Which only confirms that Russia's intelligence was correct.

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

cinci zoo sniper posted:

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-us-mercenaries-plan-chemical-attack-ukraine/

Putin did also do his own bit today, about euphoric triumph march of NATO, which read like a generic Vasukhani post about the natural force of Russia.

at some point these stories will escalate to dastardly western mercenaries launching nuclear tipped mirvs at themselves from neo-soviet silos as part of the ultimate false flag

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

This guy is DC blob incarnate, but he lays out a pretty extensive and interesting case for impending invasion of Ukraine:
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527

What I still don't understand and what no one who is sounding the alarm for war seems to know is what the goal of invasion would be, and what consequences it would entail. Take everything to the Dneiper or just the Donbas? Annex it? Put up a puppet government? What about insurgency? Nothing about it seems worthwhile to Russia. I still think there's a chance this a very intense bluff.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Ramrod Hotshot posted:

This guy is DC blob incarnate, but he lays out a pretty extensive and interesting case for impending invasion of Ukraine:
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527

What I still don't understand and what no one who is sounding the alarm for war seems to know is what the goal of invasion would be, and what consequences it would entail. Take everything to the Dneiper or just the Donbas? Annex it? Put up a puppet government? What about insurgency? Nothing about it seems worthwhile to Russia. I still think there's a chance this a very intense bluff.

Because they don't actually know about the inner details of the conflicts they see this as a battle between US and Russia.

Russia sees this as a quelling and re-annexation of a seperatist coalition of oblasts

. What are the goals?

1. To reintegrate lost terrify and prevent further NATO encorision.
2. To restore a multipolar world or the idea that one can exist post cold war.
3. To Break the shroud of invulnerability that NATO has had since the breakup of the USSR.
4. To prove that the world can stand up to America without being immediately quashed or overthrown

Even achieving two of the four goals is a major victory for Russia.
However I believe Putin didn't pay attention to the goals he outlined quite well enough as one of them would have installed him as basically king of NATO, which is definitely not going to be agreed upon. So most likely he's come to the bargaining table clutching all the chips and giving up none.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

Pretty hosed up of the US to supply chemical weapons to paramilitaries imo

Is that a war crime the UN can investigate

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

VitalSigns posted:

Pretty hosed up of the US to supply chemical weapons to paramilitaries imo

Is that a war crime the UN can investigate

Lmao what the gently caress. We just need to drop bomb casings with wood alcohol marked as 250₽ aftershave or hair tonic and we won't have to worry about the Russian army.

So what happened, did Hunter Biden tell someone in the US to send that gas and the Russians are taking it as we're readying sarin gas delivers from our bunkers in the saar?


https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2021/11/29/russian-tanks-massing-near-ukraine-sport-mods-against-drones-javelin-missiles/


WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 05:43 on Dec 22, 2021

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Why do I still think this won't be anything more major than a serious Donbass engagement to annex the region into Russia proper and achieve little else?

Realistically, what does the average Western European or US citizen have to fear from a Russian invasion of Ukraine?

wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019

Grouchio posted:

Why do I still think this won't be anything more major than a serious Donbass engagement to annex the region into Russia proper and achieve little else?

Why would Russia want to do that? They would rather Donetsk be reintegrated so it can be a spoiler in elections or keep it frozen to assure no EU or NATO ascension. Just annexing land isn't the goal here

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Grouchio posted:

Why do I still think this won't be anything more major than a serious Donbass engagement to annex the region into Russia proper and achieve little else?

Realistically, what does the average Western European or US citizen have to fear from a Russian invasion of Ukraine?

I mean no war in Europe is kind of a big deal there CIA intern in training. Especially with it signalling the end of the long peace.


I think it's a fault of many of you to look at this conflict as solely a material gain for the Russian federation. It is not, it is a mixture of some physical gains, and much more of a reputation gain. It restores the ability for the Russian federation to project its power which it has not be able to do other than small border conflicts like donutsk and Georgia.

What we need to understand here is that Putin's probably not going to be alive for another 30 plus years, however if he can set in motion a restoration of the Russian empire there is a possibility that it will continue long after him. War in Europe signifies a power play by one of the winners of the second world war that cannot be undone easily.

So Putin has two ideas floating in his head, the first idea is that the Western Europe is what caused the Russians to be destroyed. The second is that Russia can and will return itself to its former glory. His upbringing in the Soviet Union most likely gives him attendance to the latter.

Breaking the European alliance which completely surrounds Russia is Paramount to a developing Russia. As it opens up opportunities close to home, in terms of Russian investment.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 06:35 on Dec 22, 2021

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin
A major military conflict breaking the Minsk agreements and annexation of sovereign territory is not important unless it personally affects US citizens?

quote:

. What are the goals?

You gotta take into account the internal aspect in that his support is bad and he remembers the euphoria of 2014. There's nothing else on the table he's willing to do for russians for popular support, he's cutting the social budget and increasing the military budget

wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-mass-burials-regulations/31619324.html

MOSCOW -- Russian authorities have published new regulations on the expedited mass burial of humans and animals who die as a result of military conflicts or noncombatant emergencies.

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

Vasukhani posted:

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-mass-burials-regulations/31619324.html

MOSCOW -- Russian authorities have published new regulations on the expedited mass burial of humans and animals who die as a result of military conflicts or noncombatant emergencies.

Well that's alarming.

Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010

Grouchio posted:

Realistically, what does the average Western European or US citizen have to fear from a Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Two major geopolitical points for the 21st century:

1) Wars of territorial conquest and annexation are back on the menu.
2) You gotta have nukes, and never give them up, to be safe.

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alex314
Nov 22, 2007

Nukes won't do much against hybrid war. Even if Ukraine had working nukes and delivery mechanisms Putin could still get them "Bay of Pigs" style. It wouldn't help against massive Russian disinformation campaign, that made people believe they are hours from Homonazis coming from Lvov to shoot them.

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