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Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

Schnorkles posted:

In general, I think most professional virologists, immunologists, etc. would recommend that the correct strategy is not to get in an arms race between our immune systems and a virus, but that appears to be what we're doing.

20,000 year war

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Animal-Mother
Feb 14, 2012

RABBIT RABBIT
RABBIT RABBIT
My friend from India got the useless Astrazeneca vaccine and was kind of freaking out about how to explain the situation to the nice folks at CVS. I told him to just say he's un-vaccinated, since he essentially is. And he's not in an American database anywhere, as far as they're concerned, he's fully eligible for mRNA shot number one.

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



CottonWolf posted:

Have an EAVE II report.

https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/publications/severity-of-omicron-variant-of-concern-and-vaccine-effectiveness-

It's been submitted to medRxiv, but I suspect that it's still rolling through the internal processes there. My experience is that medRxiv submissions can take multiple days to go live after you submit them, and half the time they then email you back saying that they won't put it up until you extend your ethics section.
ah yeah thanks! it still isn't under their recent publications page yet, i did see the scotland and brazil comparison for vaccine effectiveness over time against delta in there though:
https://www.ed.ac.uk/usher/eave-ii/key-outputs/our-publications/vaccine-protection-wanes-after-three-months

that's a good read

Zisky
May 6, 2003

PM me and I will show you my tits

Schnorkles posted:

In general, I think most professional virologists, immunologists, etc. would recommend that the correct strategy is not to get in an arms race between our immune systems and a virus, but that appears to be what we're doing.

And yet patients will demand it the moment they get a runny nose and doctors will prescribe it to them.

Loucks
May 21, 2007

It's incwedibwe easy to suck my own dick.

Stereotype posted:

a million people infected a day yields 10k deaths a day at a 1% ifr so it’s pretty scary that the news is predicting that absolutely catastrophic scenario as if it is both acceptable and inescapable.

Nothing to be done. Anyone for ice cream?

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?
okay, found the best source for this i could.

UK data on the age adjusted fatality rate during delta suggests that the vaccines reduce your rate of dying from covid from 6% (unvaxxed) to 2% (breakthrough infection) if you're 50+

you'd obviously much rather be vaccinated with this, but if it is mostly the protection against infection that's driving the death reduction, and the 2% CFR remains where it is, but the breakthrough number goes way up...

https://mobile.twitter.com/bencowling88/status/1425085500105232387

Plank Walker
Aug 11, 2005

Golli posted:

It's a big drug, some people say its the biggest ever. You wouldn't believe how big. Many people are saying it.

(what does "big drug" mean in pharma-insider land?)

a big drug can only be prescribed by a big pharma

Wang Commander
Dec 27, 2003

by sebmojo

Schnorkles posted:

In general, I think most professional virologists, immunologists, etc. would recommend that the correct strategy is not to get in an arms race between our immune systems and a virus, but that appears to be what we're doing.

Right, it's unwinnable because we can't iterate as fast as it can, the only way out is for humans to get selected so strongly for covid resilience over many many generations, but the modern world is so capable of rendering itself uninhabitable in the death spasms of our brittle society (and we are locked in for climate uninhabitability without geoengineering) and so we can't afford that at all.

AppleNippleBOB
May 13, 2007



Animal-Mother posted:

My friend from India got the useless Astrazeneca vaccine and was kind of freaking out about how to explain the situation to the nice folks at CVS. I told him to just say he's un-vaccinated, since he essentially is. And he's not in an American database anywhere, as far as they're concerned, he's fully eligible for mRNA shot number one.

https://i.imgur.com/cYK4OYn.mp4

Schnorkles
Apr 30, 2015

It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Golli posted:

It's a big drug, some people say its the biggest ever. You wouldn't believe how big. Many people are saying it.

(what does "big drug" mean in pharma-insider land?)

brute force medicine, usually.

Blitter
Mar 16, 2011

Intellectual
AI Enthusiast

Stereotype posted:

a million people infected a day yields 10k deaths a day at a 1% ifr so it’s pretty scary that the news is predicting that absolutely catastrophic scenario as if it is both acceptable and inescapable.

3 billion over the next 3 months.

https://i.imgur.com/LOEs7s6.mp4
(mute off)

Absolutely loving IHME this am for adding the dramatic and dire predictions, and music!

TheLemonOfIchabod
Aug 26, 2008
Got my illicit Moderna "booster" (a full shot) August 14 (first two Pfizer doses in March). Getting an actual Moderna booster tomorrow. Anyone see anything wrong with this?

Korean Boomhauer
Sep 4, 2008

Google Butt
Oct 4, 2005

Xenology is an unnatural mixture of science fiction and formal logic. At its core is a flawed assumption...

that an alien race would be psychologically human.

so let me get this straight, antivaxxers on their death beds are going to be prescribed a pill that might actually do what they thought the vaccine would do? lol

Zurtilik
Oct 23, 2015

The Biggest Brain in Guardia
President KaMAMAla.

Schnorkles
Apr 30, 2015

It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Google Butt posted:

so let me get this straight, antivaxxers on their death beds are going to be prescribed a pill that might actually do what they thought the vaccine would do? lol

more or less

Thoguh
Nov 8, 2002

College Slice

Cup Runneth Over posted:

10% positivity rate is your answer right there

They always seem to undercount the positivity rate too - my county health department has it's own COVID page and right now says we are at about 20% positivity rate for the last week, but if I go to the state page that has information by county it says we are at like 12% in my county for the last week. So 10% is probably a very optomistic count for the actual number.

Iron Crowned
May 6, 2003

by Hand Knit
2.5 hours of work left this year, I just want to go home

Grey Fox
Jan 5, 2004

Golli
Jan 5, 2013



Thoguh posted:

They always seem to undercount the positivity rate too - my county health department has it's own COVID page and right now says we are at about 20% positivity rate for the last week, but if I go to the state page that has information by county it says we are at like 12% in my county for the last week. So 10% is probably a very optomistic count for the actual number.

that's a 14 day positivity rate on the graph, so it hasnt caught up yet.

post COVID
Mar 5, 2007

free college, free healthcare, free Shmurda



haha i guess it's probably impossible to distinguish a delta/omicron recombinant from co-existing delta/omicron infections, using Illumina short-read sequencing

coming to an oxford nanopore technologies brochure near you

Thoguh
Nov 8, 2002

College Slice

TheLemonOfIchabod posted:

Got my illicit Moderna "booster" (a full shot) August 14 (first two Pfizer doses in March). Getting an actual Moderna booster tomorrow. Anyone see anything wrong with this?

Yeah, that I am not also getting a 4th shot tomorrow.

Thoguh
Nov 8, 2002

College Slice

Golli posted:

that's a 14 day positivity rate on the graph, so it hasnt caught up yet.

lol, it used to be last 7 days, they must have changed it recently when positivity started spiking.

Zisky
May 6, 2003

PM me and I will show you my tits

Lol I didn't even think about the special effects hazer we were running anytime we were inside on my last job.

Thoguh
Nov 8, 2002

College Slice
Merck pills for the unvaccinated by choice. Pfizer pills for the vaccinated and those that can't be vaccinated for a legitimate reason, IMHO.

Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

https://twitter.com/djbyrnes1/status/1473728966271905804?s=20

Cook County and Chicago are hosed and allegedly it's not even omicron

A Spherical Sponge
Nov 28, 2010

WarEternal posted:

This post was a while back but, I had a bout of 2 weeks of not being able to taste when I had bad pneumonia a few years ago.

I thought this would be well-trod ground by now but... Not being able to taste does not enable you to eat whatever you want, unbothered. It makes everything you eat an extremely loving unpleasant experience. I can't really do justice to describing it but it has nothing to do with lacking flavor and more the fact that it's just not at all what you expect putting something in your mouth and chewing it to be like. Everything is gross.

I can't even imagine what the people whose experience is, instead of no taste, everything has some vile flavor on top of it. Must be loving horrible.

Not being able to taste is a lot worse than you expect if it's never happened to you. None of it is really related to the fact that things don't "taste good". For instance, everything tasting like minute rice would be far preferable to the reality which is just a blank where taste should be.

Maybe it would be like if your vision was suddenly transformed into seeing everything in wireframe instead of your expectation of seeing everything in black and white.

when I was recovering from leukaemia as a teenager, I couldn't taste anything properly for about a year. it was one of the worst parts of the recovery process (second only to the corticosteroids). I remember biting into a perfectly normal, delicious looking strawberry and gagging from the taste. it was the same with everything else. I had to be rehospitalised for malnutrition because I could barely bring myself to eat anything.

I feel like people really underestimate how awful it is, as a symptom, or as a long term disability. but I guess they'll get to find out lol

Thoguh
Nov 8, 2002

College Slice
I wonder if anybody is gonna try to sell their Valtrex prescription to an anti-vaxxer as the Pfizer antiviral for COVID.

mystes
May 31, 2006

Goreld posted:

The whole thing is a PR stunt, the same way that bragging about ventilator numbers is. You could build infinite hospitals and that wouldn’t solve a pandemic. Unless you put every person in one hospital each, I guess that would work.
China built special clinics to test people for covid and special hospitals just for people with covid. You're assuming building hospitals is pointless because you're assuming they're doing the loving stupid thing America is doing where it's putting covid patients together with other patients but they aren't. They also have proper ppe for the staff at the covid hospitals which we don't.

Like I just love this implicit american attitude "oh I have no idea what China is doing but it must be pointless because if we did it it wouldn't work and nobody is smarter than us americans am i right?"

post COVID
Mar 5, 2007

free college, free healthcare, free Shmurda


haha my dipshit cousin is on infection immunity, 3 mRNA shots and now his second infection.

CaptainBeefart
Mar 28, 2016



A bowl game? I'm down, just picked up some lemon g and GMO yesterday and cleaned out my spoon.

U-DO Burger
Nov 12, 2007




Shifty Pony posted:

I would like to get off Mr. Biden's Mild Ride.

change the thread title already you coward mods

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004


Aren't the people most likely to get omicron first those taking zero precautions and have already had covid at least once? Presumably their natural immunity + the fact that they didn't die the first time sort of selects for people who will have non hospitalized covid this time around

The whole "it's mild" reeks to high hell of "don't cause a panic and run on the banks"

Also, I'm increasingly less confident in the biden administration's ability to lead through any other crisis that comes up. They're more concerned about electability in their actions than providing actual help; if you're not going to do anything while in power, might as well give up on doing things based on future elections

Goobish
May 31, 2011

Lastgirl posted:

if this is true then biden essentially condemned people to die

Yeah you must have missed the epic Winter of Death speech last Friday. Was pretty cool if you like blaming everyone else for things and also giving them Death.

Google Butt
Oct 4, 2005

Xenology is an unnatural mixture of science fiction and formal logic. At its core is a flawed assumption...

that an alien race would be psychologically human.

a couple quick tips for the noobs

dont share unfiltered air with anyone

2 shots only mean ur unvaccinated

mystes
May 31, 2006

Hadlock posted:

Aren't the people most likely to get omicron first those taking zero precautions and have already had covid at least once? Presumably their natural immunity + the fact that they didn't die the first time sort of selects for people who will have non hospitalized covid this time around

The whole "it's mild" reeks to high hell of "don't cause a panic and run on the banks"

Also, I'm increasingly less confident in the biden administration's ability to lead through any other crisis that comes up. They're more concerned about electability in their actions than providing actual help; if you're not going to do anything while in power, might as well give up on doing things based on future elections
If previous infection really provides that much infection and that much of the population has really had covid already then that's not the worst thing in the world. It's much more of a problem if the numbers are just wrong in some basic way or if the numbers from other places showing that it's mild don't apply in the US.

Or if people in other places have JUST had covid and that provides some protection but most people in the US had it a year ago and have no protection, for example.

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018
Great to see a graph where the number is going down at last



Oh.

Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

https://twitter.com/espn_macmahon/status/1473731999508713474?s=20
https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1473710607652302848?s=20
https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1473693397168836613?s=20

seems sustainable

Glimm
Jul 27, 2005

Time is only gonna pass you by

Goobish posted:

Yeah you must have missed the epic Winter of Death speech last Friday. Was pretty cool if you like blaming everyone else for things and also giving them Death.

tbf they were pointing out that antivaxxers are killing people and causing mass death, and they're right

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Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

Failed Imagineer posted:

Great to see a graph where the number is going down at last



Oh.

see, we're past the peak.

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