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speng31b
May 8, 2010

Paradoxish posted:

This also isn't quite right. Some of those people will be hospitalized, because there's basically no group that doesn't have at least some risk of severe outcomes with covid. Which is, of course, why it's not a loving "common cold."

So Omicron may be putting the same number of people in the hospital as Delta. In addition to that, it's going to put some other, presumably smaller number of people in the hospital who would have just totally shrugged off a Delta infection. We're somehow taking this conclusion and running with the "milder" narrative even though the actual conclusion is that it's straight-up worse than Delta.

The imperial study (which is still probably quite errory, but seems most sensible overall) seems to show that when you adjust for breakthroughs and reinfections omicron might be 2-12% less intrinsically severe.

As you mentioned, some percentage of breakthroughs and reinfections will be hospitalized. Even if that happened to roughly balance with some slightly reduced intrinsic severity, it's still much worse than advertised.

It's going to spread on a scale everyone is totally unprepared for.

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Vim Fuego
Jun 1, 2000


Ultra Carp

triple sulk
Sep 17, 2014



RoboChrist 9000 posted:

My heart breaks for the kids, it really does. It sucks that they're missing out on some of the fun social experiences that should be part and parcel of this period of their lives. I mean I have been an introverted nerd my whole life, and even I can't imagine how loving devastated as a teen I'd have been if I had to deal with this poo poo (not to mention the anxiety about the future and my own wellbeing, of course). I mentioned how I got my teaching certification just before all this happened, and yeah, I'd be lying if I said it was not a day that went by, but it's definitely not a week that goes by where I don't think about my students and how hosed this is for them. They were a great bunch of kids, and they deserve so much better than this.

And then of course, yeah. There is a minority of students who have the drive and the learning style where they can respond to at-home learning as well as in-person learning. But they are a minority. The majority of learners are not going to be as well-served by learning from home as they would from in-person instruction. And that's not to say anything about the fact many otherwise excellent teachers would/did doubtless struggle to adapt to that sort of teaching methodology.

It's awful, and it sucks. And it sucks for the parents too, yeah, I get it.

It's miserable. Because you know what? A pandemic is miserable. We are living through a horrible crisis that would require sacrifices and less-than-ideal compromises even if we did everything right.
You know what sucks more than your child missing out on socialization and having a sub-obtimal education? Having them die or get maimed for life.

I have nothing but empathy and heartache for the children, but all these ghoulish parents saying they want the schools open can go gently caress off and die in a fire because god loving dammit what kind of monster has so little regard for the loving lives of their children?

they're almost all going to be dead of starvation or flood waters in a couple decades or so no matter what

RoboChrist 9000
Dec 14, 2006

Mater Dolorosa

Doctor posted:

https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/1474246701900779520?s=20

well there goes my plan to simply stay home and pretend I have COVID

Center for Disease Collaboration

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Doctor posted:

https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/1474246701900779520?s=20

well there goes my plan to simply stay home and pretend I have COVID

I'm not sticking my nose out of my door unless the disease burns out or we get a cure
:sickos:

Slider
Jun 6, 2004

POINTS
sometimes i like to go to international airports during a deadly plague and just hang out, ya knmow

Wang Commander
Dec 27, 2003

by sebmojo

Business Gorillas posted:

my guess is its the same reason people get really mad about masks & respirators in particular: its an admission that things aren't normal

It's also insanely bad for kids at population scale, I think about 1/3 of kids just didn't do any remote or any other schooling and were feral or worked last year and lmao

Rutibex
Sep 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

bowser posted:

Somewhere out there there's a bizarro Wang Commander who has been infected 40 times and is on a mission to achieve the perfect "natural immunity".

I think they did a study where 100% of rats died after being infected with covid at least 20 times. should only take 5 or so years before all of us are turned to soup if they just keep letting covid go wild

Doctor
Jul 22, 2005

GO TO YOUR ROOM!

crepeface posted:

glad u have some humour about this because i found a possible future av for you but thought it might be too ghoulish to share



you might not like it but this is what max titers looks like

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



Atrocious Joe posted:

Biden is demonstrating a world historical level of unpreparedness

biden didnt even give a poo poo during his presidential campaign. when covid started he stopped campaigning entirely for like three months and when they decided to start campaigning again he just did video calls from his house until the debates

his vp selection was the best preview of his presidency since he dragged it out two or three times longer than it should have been and he was extremely indecisive the whole time. the indecision between klobb, harris, whitmer, susan rice, and warren was very publicly broadcasted as campaign insiders would leak multiple times a week to politico or whoever that one of them was looking good in the last couple days

Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?

Doctor posted:

wtf is with these people so insanely against online learning like dude I am a freakin prof and remote learning is an easy pass if you just do the minimum level of effort and turn things in on time I don't loving get it I would've thought I'd won the drat lottery if I got to stay home and do my degree from my bed like spare yourself all the drat stress I just don't get it

remote school exposed a ton of parents as psychopaths

Also to some degree did away with the idea that choosing to have kids is actually a personal decision without broader social implications, and that's loving people up. Any parent in the US who isn't insanely rich needs to rely on the system to a substantial degree, and COVID made it clear that the system just does not give one single gently caress about you or your kids. The strain on the public school system is only going to get worse and that's going to make it harder and harder to be a parent in the US. That's understandably creating a lot of stress.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Rutibex posted:

I think they did a study where 100% of rats died after being infected with covid at least 20 times. should only take 5 or so years before all of us are turned to soup if they just keep letting covid go wild

Man imagine the scale of misery if we brewed up our own Marek's disease, because lmfao

WampaLord
Jan 14, 2010

RoboChrist 9000 posted:

I have nothing but empathy and heartache for the children, but all these ghoulish parents saying they want the schools open can go gently caress off and die in a fire because god loving dammit what kind of monster has so little regard for the loving lives of their children?

This is what I think every time I see parents and their kid in the grocery store, not a mask to be seen.

Doctor
Jul 22, 2005

GO TO YOUR ROOM!

Slider posted:

sometimes i like to go to international airports during a deadly plague and just hang out, ya knmow

my brother is leaving on a plane for Japan tomorrow and is having none of my warnings, shrug.

Wang Commander
Dec 27, 2003

by sebmojo

Rutibex posted:

I think they did a study where 100% of rats died after being infected with covid at least 20 times. should only take 5 or so years before all of us are turned to soup if they just keep letting covid go wild

I think they all died with covid that had been put through 20 rounds of serial passage selecting for rodent lethality.

RoboChrist 9000
Dec 14, 2006

Mater Dolorosa

Rutibex posted:

I think they did a study where 100% of rats died after being infected with covid at least 20 times. should only take 5 or so years before all of us are turned to soup if they just keep letting covid go wild

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2787736/

DR FRASIER KRANG
Feb 4, 2005

"Are you forgetting that just this afternoon I was punched in the face by a turtle now dead?
one of the dudes in that exchange was so mad about virtual school that he said "I'm sure we can find plenty of young twenty somethings to instruct in person if the older teachers can't do it."

god he's such a piece of poo poo

Internet Janitor
May 17, 2008

"That isn't the appropriate trash receptacle."
has anyone ever noticed that the lyrics to katy perry's never really over are uncannily applicable to covid?

RoboChrist 9000
Dec 14, 2006

Mater Dolorosa

zone posted:

Man imagine the scale of misery if we brewed up our own Marek's disease, because lmfao

I mean that's the best case scenario. The current route of 'no NPIs, vaccines only' has really only two probable - perhaps even possible - outcomes; Marek's disease or ADE. The former would be bad but the latter would probably be genuinely an existential threat to the human race, not merely to industrial civilization (outside of China).

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



😡

Normal

speng31b
May 8, 2010

Rutibex posted:

I think they did a study where 100% of rats died after being infected with covid at least 20 times. should only take 5 or so years before all of us are turned to soup if they just keep letting covid go wild

Rats only live like two years, you sure they didn't just die a natural death in the time it took them to infect them that much

Wang Commander
Dec 27, 2003

by sebmojo
I understand the use of the Marek's comparison but it really does seem like so far the major mutations have been cropping up more and more in the utterly insane spread in low vaxx populations.

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



Doctor posted:

wtf is with these people so insanely against online learning like dude I am a freakin prof and remote learning is an easy pass if you just do the minimum level of effort and turn things in on time I don't loving get it I would've thought I'd won the drat lottery if I got to stay home and do my degree from my bed like spare yourself all the drat stress I just don't get it

online college sucks rear end because you pay full price tuition and you don't get to gently caress your classmates

Captain Magic
Apr 4, 2005

Yes, we have feathers--but the muscles of men.

RoboChrist 9000 posted:

My heart breaks for the kids, it really does. It sucks that they're missing out on some of the fun social experiences that should be part and parcel of this period of their lives. I mean I have been an introverted nerd my whole life, and even I can't imagine how loving devastated as a teen I'd have been if I had to deal with this poo poo (not to mention the anxiety about the future and my own wellbeing, of course). I mentioned how I got my teaching certification just before all this happened, and yeah, I'd be lying if I said it was not a day that went by, but it's definitely not a week that goes by where I don't think about my students and how hosed this is for them. They were a great bunch of kids, and they deserve so much better than this.

And then of course, yeah. There is a minority of students who have the drive and the learning style where they can respond to at-home learning as well as in-person learning. But they are a minority. The majority of learners are not going to be as well-served by learning from home as they would from in-person instruction. And that's not to say anything about the fact many otherwise excellent teachers would/did doubtless struggle to adapt to that sort of teaching methodology.

It's awful, and it sucks. And it sucks for the parents too, yeah, I get it.

It's miserable. Because you know what? A pandemic is miserable. We are living through a horrible crisis that would require sacrifices and less-than-ideal compromises even if we did everything right.
You know what sucks more than your child missing out on socialization and having a sub-obtimal education? Having them die or get maimed for life.

I have nothing but empathy and heartache for the children, but all these ghoulish parents saying they want the schools open can go gently caress off and die in a fire because god loving dammit what kind of monster has so little regard for the loving lives of their children?

as a teacher this is also my position

also I am not going to teach past this year

goodbye public service, it was real

RoboChrist 9000
Dec 14, 2006

Mater Dolorosa

speng31b posted:

Rats only live like two years, you sure they didn't just die a natural death in the time it took them to infect them that much

I linked the study, unless I misunderstood it, they just basically let SARS1 run wild through a mouse population until they wound up with a variant that had a CFR of 70-100%.
Thankfully that won't happen as a result of our choice to let SARS2 run wild through a human population because

Doctor
Jul 22, 2005

GO TO YOUR ROOM!
lmao university that kept hundreds of students in gymnasiums to take final exams predicts omicron tidal wave.

https://twitter.com/j_mcelroy/status/1474249411345600519?s=20

Doctor
Jul 22, 2005

GO TO YOUR ROOM!

Shear Modulus posted:

online college sucks rear end because you pay full price tuition and you don't get to gently caress your classmates

Right I forgot about The College Experience

fosborb
Dec 15, 2006



Chronic Good Poster

DR FRASIER KRANG posted:

one of the dudes in that exchange was so mad about virtual school that he said "I'm sure we can find plenty of young twenty somethings to instruct in person if the older teachers can't do it."

god he's such a piece of poo poo

lol yeah just lining up around the block

Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?

DR FRASIER KRANG posted:

one of the dudes in that exchange was so mad about virtual school that he said "I'm sure we can find plenty of young twenty somethings to instruct in person if the older teachers can't do it."

god he's such a piece of poo poo

the real funny part is that this guy has no idea how incredibly wrong he is

Lacrosse
Jun 16, 2010

>:V


RoboChrist 9000 posted:

I mean that's the best case scenario. The current route of 'no NPIs, vaccines only' has really only two probable - perhaps even possible - outcomes; Marek's disease or ADE. The former would be bad but the latter would probably be genuinely an existential threat to the human race, not merely to industrial civilization (outside of China).

*googles ADE*

quote:

Most diseases do not cause ADE, but one of the best studied examples of a pathogen that can cause ADE is dengue virus. Dengue virus is one of the most common infections in the world, infecting hundreds of millions and killing tens of thousands of people each year. Unlike viruses like measles or mumps that only have one type, dengue virus has four different forms, called “serotypes.” These serotypes are very similar, but slight differences among them set the stage for ADE. If a person is infected by one serotype of dengue virus, they typically have mild disease and generate a protective immune response, including neutralizing antibodies, against that serotype. But, if that person is infected with a second serotype of dengue virus, the neutralizing antibodies generated from the first infection may bind to the virus and actually increase the virus’s ability to enter cells, resulting in ADE and causing a severe form of the disease, called dengue hemorrhagic fever.

Is ADE caused by vaccines?

On a few occasions ADE has resulted from vaccination:

- Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) — RSV is a virus that commonly causes pneumonia in children. A vaccine was made by growing RSV, purifying it, and inactivating it with the chemical formaldehyde. In clinical trials, children who were given the vaccine were more likely to develop or die from pneumonia after infection with RSV. As a result of this finding, the vaccine trials stopped, and the vaccine was never submitted for approval or released to the public.

- Measles — An early version of measles vaccine was made by inactivating measles virus using formaldehyde. Children who were vaccinated and later became infected with measles in the community developed high fevers, unusual rash, and an atypical form of pneumonia. Upon seeing these results, the vaccine was withdrawn from use, and those who received this version of the vaccine were recommended to be vaccinated again using the live, weakened measles vaccine, which does not cause ADE and is still in use today.

Both the RSV and measles vaccines that caused ADE were tested in the 1960s. Since then, other vaccines have successfully been created by purifying and chemically inactivating the virus with formaldehyde, such as hepatitis A, rabies, and inactivated polio vaccines. These more recent vaccines do not cause ADE.

https://www.chop.edu/centers-programs/vaccine-education-center/vaccine-safety/antibody-dependent-enhancement-and-vaccines

:whitewater:

Wang Commander
Dec 27, 2003

by sebmojo

Doctor posted:

Right I forgot about The College Experience

The college experience is like a high point of a lot of people's lives for many many reasons and I think it's a losing argument to say "beep boop online school is inherently better" vs "we need to actually use NPIs to achieve zero covid"

RoboChrist 9000
Dec 14, 2006

Mater Dolorosa

Captain Magic posted:

as a teacher this is also my position

also I am not going to teach past this year

goodbye public service, it was real

I'm not employed as a teacher ATM because I was not going to risk my life unnecessarily for the pittance we make, and I even more importantly will not be party to murder and maiming if I can help it.
I'm sort of holding out hope - LOL! - that as things continue there will be more demand for online tutors and/or that the wealthy start realizing they can benefit from just hiring a private teacher to teach their kids 1:1 over zoom rather than sending them to plaguepits or doing pleb online learning where you have one teacher dealing with a whole class.

You know, as part of the social collapse of modern capitalism and the regression to earlier models, just go full on pre-modern education with private instructors teaching the children of the elite.

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme

Wang Commander posted:

I understand the use of the Marek's comparison but it really does seem like so far the major mutations have been cropping up more and more in the utterly insane spread in low vaxx populations.
Yeah most of the major variants, including Alpha and Delta, all arose before the vaccines were broadly available (in the places where they are, in fact, available).

KaptainKrunk
Feb 6, 2006


We are approximately 3 months from every state going the way of Florida and Tennessee and just not reporting jack

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



RoboChrist 9000 posted:

I linked the study, unless I misunderstood it, they just basically let SARS1 run wild through a mouse population until they wound up with a variant that had a CFR of 70-100%.
Thankfully that won't happen as a result of our choice to let SARS2 run wild through a human population because

Such a variant would likely be outcompeted on a global stage. I think a sample size of a couple dozen rats in a box isn't a great model for "human extinction test".

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

RoboChrist 9000 posted:

I linked the study, unless I misunderstood it, they just basically let SARS1 run wild through a mouse population until they wound up with a variant that had a CFR of 70-100%.
Thankfully that won't happen as a result of our choice to let SARS2 run wild through a human population because

because viruses always become less fatal over time

Rutibex
Sep 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

Wang Commander posted:

We've been over this again and again. Unless something really drastic changes covid will not directly disable the workforce to the point things grind to a halt. It didn't even really manage to do so in India's Delta wave.

i think omicron + pandemic fatigue + new years parties is going to do it. we will know by mid January

Wang Commander
Dec 27, 2003

by sebmojo

cr0y posted:

Such a variant would likely be outcompeted on a global stage. I think a sample size of a couple dozen rats in a box isn't a great model for "human extinction test".

They were just exploring the evolutionary space for creating a really deadly mouse model virus I don't think it was meant to do anything except find a really nasty local maximum for mouse murdering. We can certainly take away from it that coronaviruses have a lot of room to maneuver but I think we know that pretty well already.

Glimm
Jul 27, 2005

Time is only gonna pass you by

platzapS posted:

Someone who knows more about international responses: Is the Biden admin "normal" or does it seem unusually "chill"/unprepared/resigned compared to like, Britain and Australia even?

Biden is forcing folks to vaccinate or get fired, which is good - but too late, and the vaccines aren’t as useful as we’d hope. But it’s nice, my company is already enforcing it and everybody is vaccinated or on their way to getting fired.

I think Germany has plans to mandate the vaccines but nothing actually started yet?

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Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme
If SARS-CoV-2 goes the way of Marek’s disease, there will be no more anti-vaxxers because they will literally be dead.

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