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Dead Goon
Dec 13, 2002

No Obvious Flaws



Azza Bamboo posted:

What about aliens?

It's a dry heat.

[edit] 114 is an abundant number, a sphenic number[1] and a Harshad number.[2] It is the sum of the first four hyperfactorials, including H(0). At 114, the Mertens function sets a new low of -6, a record that stands until 197

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deano
Sep 6, 2000

Mugsbaloney posted:

It might have implications for the field of immunology for a start, and the people who attempted to obfuscate it's origins.

I haven't been able to find anything that convincingly refutes this article from earlier in the year- iirc at the time people in this thread pointed out that some of those associated with a prior article were some sort of racist phrenologists, but didn't really engage with the argument

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/06/the-lab-leak-theory-inside-the-fight-to-uncover-covid-19s-origins?intcid=inline_amp

The issue for some reason became politicised as can be seen by the reaction of the hooting chimp upthread, but I don't see why that should prevent anyone from being interested in why it happened. Regardless of who their imagined fellow travellers are


In response to the comments above, if someone wants to refute the points actually made in the article, I'm all ears.

Na just quicker to tell you to gently caress off.

so uh gently caress off?

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal

therattle posted:

Here’s a question: why does it matter? What difference does it make if it escaped or was contracted naturally?
In reality it shouldn't. If it was a Chinese lab bioweapon we should have copied the countries that had most preparedness for that: Japan, ROC/Taiwan, South Korea. If it wasn't then we should have copied them anyway because they seemed to do pretty well while we were eating poo poo.

As a conspiracy, it matters because if They know this and They aren't telling you about it, you are free to distrust everything else that They say about masks and lockdowns, which is why "it's a Chinese bioweapon" is often comorbid with "and masks don't work" and so on rather than "and that's why it's far more serious than the 'flu and we should really do something about it."

Mugsbaloney
Jul 11, 2012

We prefer your extinction to the loss of our job

deano posted:

Na just quicker to tell you to gently caress off.

so uh gently caress off?

Well that's not very nice. Why would you say something like that?

Azza Bamboo
Apr 7, 2018


THUNDERDOME LOSER 2021
I have seen no comprehensive refutation of the possibility of aliens doing COVID.

Bobby Deluxe
May 9, 2004

crispix posted:

saj says open a window (if you can)
he can take his giant bald head and gently caress right off, if I open my windows during the winter I get an extra five quid on the gas bill for that day and an asthma attack. you open your window saj. and hurl yourself out of it you idiotic penis.

deano
Sep 6, 2000

Mugsbaloney posted:

Well that's not very nice. Why would you say something like that?

lower effort than your shickt(poo poo)?

fuctifino
Jun 11, 2001

I've also seen no comprehensive refutation of the possibility that Covid is caused by 5G moregellon transported nanobots sprayed via chemtrails from UFOs based at Bill Gate's Lolita Island #2.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006
so we can tick "but why aren't you engaging with my argument" and "why do you have to be so rude" off the Fash-Adjacent Talking Points List

crispix
Mar 28, 2015

Grand-Maman m'a raconté
(Les éditions des amitiés franco-québécoises)

Hello, dear
right wingers always seem to have this idea that you have a duty to debate them but actually you can tell them to gently caress off and get on with something more worthwhile

(i wasn't following the debate here, but it's a time saving tip nonetheless)

crispix fucked around with this message at 19:24 on Dec 27, 2021

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall
Im going to be the guy that reread the lovely dumb article and restated the incredibly obvious rebuttal to the lab leak theory: there is literally no evidence for it presented in the article, and the null hypothesis of any virus is always natural origin because that is how viruses work

the entire argument is "an autistic man is upset that "prove the negative" is not how science works".

InspectorCarbonara
Jul 2, 2010

Evening, patrolmaaan.

JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

It really is like climate change isn't it. Each little wave of covid is like climate change. The longer we wait the more drastic the action we have to take to avert disaster until oops too late we're all hosed
If nothing else covid has removed any hopes I had that we could stop climate change. If people and governments are this reluctant to take the relatively small measures to stop a pandemic then lmao at them taking the bigger measures and changes to lifestyles that it would take to save us from that.

Bobby Deluxe
May 9, 2004

crispix posted:

right wingers always seem to have this idea that you have a duty to debate them but actually you can tell them to gently caress off and get on with something more worthwhile

(i wasn't following the debate here, but it's a time saving tip nonetheless)
Somewhere between

https://twitter.com/DaftLimmy/status/1301616768838848512?t=7A4AAf30_mJiXmMGg_bADA&s=19

and

https://twitter.com/dasharez0ne/status/1125839557352742913?t=ZdNLftCQddVjzi9twO_i6A&s=19

lies the perfect, platonic internet ideal.

Bobby Deluxe fucked around with this message at 19:35 on Dec 27, 2021

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

Mugsbaloney posted:

Sure here's a few- " Research for to make virus deadlier on basis that it can be used to study and pre empt dangerous evolutionary changes." For the rest imagine I typed the phrase gently caress off oval office a few hundred times

So you've handily provided your source there, which is a fascist conspiracy site, thanks a lot.

deano
Sep 6, 2000

crispix posted:

right wingers always seem to have this idea that you have a duty to debate them but actually you can tell them to gently caress off and get on with something more worthwhile

(i wasn't following the debate here, but it's a time saving tip nonetheless)

nails it

Bobby Deluxe
May 9, 2004

Mugsbaloney posted:

Sure here's a few- " Research for to make virus deadlier on basis that it can be used to study and pre empt dangerous evolutionary changes."
Did Borat write the abstract for the paper by any chance?

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

Guavanaut posted:

In reality it shouldn't. If it was a Chinese lab bioweapon we should have copied the countries that had most preparedness for that: Japan, ROC/Taiwan, South Korea. If it wasn't then we should have copied them anyway because they seemed to do pretty well while we were eating poo poo.

As a conspiracy, it matters because if They know this and They aren't telling you about it, you are free to distrust everything else that They say about masks and lockdowns, which is why "it's a Chinese bioweapon" is often comorbid with "and masks don't work" and so on rather than "and that's why it's far more serious than the 'flu and we should really do something about it."

conspiracy logic overriding the actual logical conclusions of the stated premise is one of the funnier things about conspiracy theories (when they arent causing ethnic violence or 6 figure bodycounts)

I spent an hour last week rewriting the 12 days of christmas to be about piers corbyns favourite conspiracies. This is how I learned that he went off the deep end after deciding that the met office were promoting the myth of anthropogenic climate change on behalf of the qataris, so that they could artificially lower the availability of oil in order to increase profits. I've got no idea how a supposed marxist thinks that could possibly work, but it's hilarious anyway

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

Necrothatcher posted:

I thought the latest official position was that it is very likely natural in origin but there's no conclusive evidence either way.

Doesn't exactly seem like tinfoil hat territory.

The scary "gain of function" phrase was glommed onto by Infowars, Icke et. al. very, very early in the pandemic as absolute proof that this was an engineered bioweapon in the exact same way they took excerpts of extremely boring lanyardwank like Lockstep and The Great Reset of absolute proof of... gently caress it I don't even know what they're claiming they mean any more. It's all intimately woven into the Grand Unified Field Theory of white supremacy though and anyone Kramering into a thread throwing phrases around like that is less than half a step from telling you about white genocide.

It's like how there's nothing at all wrong to be opposed to globalised capitalism but if you hear someone ranting about The Globalists you can safely assume they're considerably more worried that George Soros using his Jewish Space Laser to make their kids not talk to them than they are about the neocolonialist looting of the Global South.

Mugsbaloney
Jul 11, 2012

We prefer your extinction to the loss of our job

Ok so for those of you who are not super interested in assigning me sinister motives/ bad understanding of science/ calling me various names, Katherine Egan on episode 443 of Longform goes into some of the problems/ subtleties around this topic (which I think the reaction here exemplifies).

Suffice it to say that I think you don't have to be a wingnut to entertain a non-zoonotic origin, nor to entertain the idea that They- in this case, specific people at the WHO/ NIH indeed might have a motive to cover it up. The right has always used a kernel of truth to build its narratives around and piss in the well of knowledge. In the modern era it is impossible to stop information, but you can tarnish it by association.

I'm not going to engage with a lot of the stuff people have posted other than observe that I don't take it too seriously. I myself found the reasoning presented in the article and in the podcast persuasive- I'd be interested to know if you did too. If you didn't, then I'd be interested to know why.

If you want to call me names, that's a separate thing. I'm a morbidly obese man with poo poo eyesight and 0-0 amateur boxing record, come fight me irl i guess.

Azza Bamboo
Apr 7, 2018


THUNDERDOME LOSER 2021
Surely there could be no better gain of function than that caused by a higher functioning being, from another planet.

Mugsbaloney
Jul 11, 2012

We prefer your extinction to the loss of our job

goddamnedtwisto posted:

The scary "gain of function" phrase was glommed onto by Infowars, Icke et. al. very, very early in the pandemic as absolute proof that this was an engineered bioweapon in the exact same way they took excerpts of extremely boring lanyardwank like Lockstep and The Great Reset of absolute proof of... gently caress it I don't even know what they're claiming they mean any more. It's all intimately woven into the Grand Unified Field Theory of white supremacy though and anyone Kramering into a thread throwing phrases around like that is less than half a step from telling you about white genocide.

It's like how there's nothing at all wrong to be opposed to globalised capitalism but if you hear someone ranting about The Globalists you can safely assume they're considerably more worried that George Soros using his Jewish Space Laser to make their kids not talk to them than they are about the neocolonialist looting of the Global South.

I didn't get it from icke or infowars though you dullard.

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

Mugsbaloney posted:

Ok so for those of you who are not super interested in assigning me sinister motives/ bad understanding of science/ calling me various names, Katherine Egan on episode 443 of Longform goes into some of the problems/ subtleties around this topic (which I think the reaction here exemplifies).

Suffice it to say that I think you don't have to be a wingnut to entertain a non-zoonotic origin, nor to entertain the idea that They- in this case, specific people at the WHO/ NIH indeed might have a motive to cover it up. The right has always used a kernel of truth to build its narratives around and piss in the well of knowledge. In the modern era it is impossible to stop information, but you can tarnish it by association.

I'm not going to engage with a lot of the stuff people have posted other than observe that I don't take it too seriously. I myself found the reasoning presented in the article and in the podcast persuasive- I'd be interested to know if you did too. If you didn't, then I'd be interested to know why.

If you want to call me names, that's a separate thing. I'm a morbidly obese man with poo poo eyesight and 0-0 amateur boxing record, come fight me irl i guess.

"I opened a discussion with a direct crib of a fascist conspiracy theory with no surrounding context, why are you all being so mean to meeeee?"

Bobby Deluxe
May 9, 2004

post 1: please stop calling me names and engage with my arguments

post 2: *ignores argument and calls name*

Mugsbaloney
Jul 11, 2012

We prefer your extinction to the loss of our job

goddamnedtwisto posted:

"I opened a discussion with a direct crib of a fascist conspiracy theory with no surrounding context, why are you all being so mean to meeeee?"

Simple question, what if it isn't *just* a fascist conspiracy theory?

You're so absolutely certain that because you've linked it to a bunch of nutters, the concept of a lab leak is inherently right wing- don't you see that there is a flaw in thinking about the world like this?

All I've told you is that I find the article and the podcast persuasive. I'm not presenting as an authority on the workings of the field of immunology- I posted here ( kramerly or not) because I'd be very interested to hear someone who does have that knowledge comment on the idea being discussed, which is not whatever right wing or cyan tracksuit theory you seem to have attributed to me.

Mugsbaloney fucked around with this message at 20:00 on Dec 27, 2021

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

No one has satisfactorily explained a round meal to me.

feedmegin
Jul 30, 2008

kecske posted:

imo cases have been either been underreported or people who might usually regularly test have avoided testing entirely in order to not lose seeing family for christmas

this is absolutely anecdotal but a several people I know have got it recently, and none of them (all vaxxed at least twice) have caught a serious case.

namesake
Jun 19, 2006

"When I was a girl, around 12 or 13, I had a fantasy that I'd grow up to marry Captain Scarlet, but he'd be busy fighting the Mysterons so I'd cuckold him with the sexiest people I could think of - Nigel Mansell, Pat Sharp and Mr. Blobby."

feedmegin posted:

this is absolutely anecdotal but a several people I know have got it recently, and none of them (all vaxxed at least twice) have caught a serious case.

The absolute vast majority of people who catch covid have always been 'okay' after a few weeks recovery but all variants are contagious and deadly enough that the numbers who do suffer dire consequences is destabilising enough to wreck society.

Most people who caught wildtype covid only had a mild or better case.

Mugsbaloney
Jul 11, 2012

We prefer your extinction to the loss of our job

Bobby Deluxe posted:

post 1: please stop calling me names and engage with my arguments

post 2: *ignores argument and calls name*

"Peter you've added nothing"

Seriously though get your in group warm and fuzzies somewhere else.

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

Mugsbaloney posted:

Simple question, what if it isn't *just* a fascist conspiracy theory?

then, nothing

nobody has any ability to do anything to the current leading superpower in the world, containment procedures in china are not worse than the typical compliance to field standard, the virus is obviously not constructed and so any gains would have been through curated selection, there are no "implications for immunology", and we remain under the same imminent threat of a catastrophic global pandemic caused by ecosystem destruction. Covid is not a catastrophic global pandemic, it was simply the first emergent pandemic that gave the WHO a chance to see how the planet will respond to the big one (or two, or three) when they arrive. We, at least in europe and most of the anglosphere, did poorly and learnt nothing. The origin changes nothing, which is exactly why it is appropriate to be sceptical of the consistently fashy individuals who keep arguing that the scientific method should be totally discarded in favour of wild speculation.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006
personally I think that the theory that covid was caused by mugsbaloney having sex with a dead badger is interesting and I'm yet to see any evidence to disprove it

why won't you debate meeeeeeeee

fuctifino
Jun 11, 2001


The article you linked to had no proven facts, just conjecture. The 'escaped from a lab' theory hasn't gone anywhere because nobody has provided any evidence that it has escaped from a lab, and all the evidence indicates it originated in the wild.

People aren't engaging with you because you haven't brought anything to the table other than <waving of hands> <pointing at right wing conspiracy nonsense> and <waaah why is everyone mocking me?>

You are being mocked and told to gently caress off for good reason.

HTH OP.

Bobby Deluxe
May 9, 2004

Mugsbaloney posted:

"Peter you've added nothing"

Seriously though get your in group warm and fuzzies somewhere else.
ok but consider this important evidence:

https://twitter.com/Baileymoon15/status/1475180261029646344?t=p2xHMfl0d-S00F-meSmWBA&s=19

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

Mugsbaloney posted:

Simple question, what if it isn't *just* a fascist conspiracy theory?

Simpler question, why did you feel the need to bring it up in the middle of a discussion of the current situation in the UK? I mean let's just pretend for a second that it's not been peddled from the very beginning by the fash - like even before the British government completely and totally botched their response - and been enthusiastically boosted by them ever since to excuse their Big Special Boy's inability to fulfill the simplest functions of government (search/replace US as appropriate) - what extra insight does it bring?

Hell let's go one step further and say the GoF tests being run at the Wuhan lab *were* responsible (there's literally no evidence of this whatsoever but hell I'll humour you) *and* the lab then allowed it to escape, or even deliberately released it... what? What is the thing you are asking us to think here? Time to gird our loins, fire up the Tridents, and go give Johnny Chinaman what-for like it was 1860 again? I mean best-case scenario here, if you're absolutely 100% right *and* don't actually want us to do anything about it, all you're actually doing is belting in to go "Heh, you *idiots* don't know this fact".

This late into this year though, with hundreds of thousands of deaths directly attributable to the rank incompetence and inadequacy of the neoliberal project to deal with anything that isn't tweaking tax credits, I don't particularly feel inclined to give the benefit of the doubt. Talks, like a fash, walks like a fash, I don't see why it behooves me to play twenty questions to work out if you're Just Asking Questions because you want the thrill of being the knower of secrets or because you want me to petrol-bomb a vaccination clinic.

Jakabite
Jul 31, 2010
I don’t think it’s all that outrageous to think that it could have come from a failure of containment. It’s just that usually when people harp on about it it’s an excuse to do a racism against Chinese people.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006
some advice, if you ever end up typing words to the equivalent of "but what if the fascists are right?" then you should probably immediately log off and go and do something else with your time

Julio Cruz fucked around with this message at 20:16 on Dec 27, 2021

Mugsbaloney
Jul 11, 2012

We prefer your extinction to the loss of our job

Julio Cruz posted:

personally I think that the theory that covid was caused by mugsbaloney having sex with a dead badger is interesting and I'm yet to see any evidence to disprove it

why won't you debate meeeeeeeee

Fight me coward

Strom Cuzewon
Jul 1, 2010

There have been lab leaks in the past. I believe swine flu had traces from a flu that escaped in the soviet back in the 70s and caused a very small outbreak.

My problem with the covid lab leak theory is that it seems to leap from lab leak to "blame china, punish the nefarious china",which makes me think that people pushing it might have an ulterior motive.

The papers pushing it also presented as evidence a damaged fridge seal from a documentary on the lab. The pictures they presented of this freezer seal didn't even clearly show it was broken. But it did clearly show that it wasn't a biosecurity seal, it was the thing that keeps the freezer cold. And if someone comes to me with such obviously wrong and stupid evidence, I'm not really going to consider any evidence they bring me later until someone gives me a good reason to.

If the who and un start to suggest it's a lab leak, then I'll pay attention.

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

Jakabite posted:

I don’t think it’s all that outrageous to think that it could have come from a failure of containment. It’s just that usually when people harp on about it it’s an excuse to do a racism against Chinese people.

Exactly. Someone can use a statistic about offending rates of GRT people with appropriate context in a discussion of the problems GRT people face in modern UK society and you might get a fair hearing. If instead someone had dropped it into the welcome-stick discussion last night though it has a *very* different connotation.

Bobby Deluxe
May 9, 2004

Strom Cuzewon posted:

If the who and un start to suggest it's a lab leak, then I'll pay attention.
I heavily doubt it, having fallen into that trap with swine flu before, I think it's likely that they won't get fooled again.

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Mugsbaloney
Jul 11, 2012

We prefer your extinction to the loss of our job

goddamnedtwisto posted:

Simpler question, why did you feel the need to bring it up in the middle of a discussion of the current situation in the UK? I mean let's just pretend for a second that it's not been peddled from the very beginning by the fash - like even before the British government completely and totally botched their response - and been enthusiastically boosted by them ever since to excuse their Big Special Boy's inability to fulfill the simplest functions of government (search/replace US as appropriate) - what extra insight does it bring?

Hell let's go one step further and say the GoF tests being run at the Wuhan lab *were* responsible (there's literally no evidence of this whatsoever but hell I'll humour you) *and* the lab then allowed it to escape, or even deliberately released it... what? What is the thing you are asking us to think here? Time to gird our loins, fire up the Tridents, and go give Johnny Chinaman what-for like it was 1860 again? I mean best-case scenario here, if you're absolutely 100% right *and* don't actually want us to do anything about it, all you're actually doing is belting in to go "Heh, you *idiots* don't know this fact".

This late into this year though, with hundreds of thousands of deaths directly attributable to the rank incompetence and inadequacy of the neoliberal project to deal with anything that isn't tweaking tax credits, I don't particularly feel inclined to give the benefit of the doubt. Talks, like a fash, walks like a fash, I don't see why it behooves me to play twenty questions to work out if you're Just Asking Questions because you want the thrill of being the knower of secrets or because you want me to petrol-bomb a vaccination clinic.

There's quite a lot of projection going on here, I don't really know where to start so I'm just going to wish you all the best in your war against the fascists. I do think your radar needs tuning though.

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