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Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

They told somebody else that America was no paper tiger. A little man you may have heard of named, MAO TSEDONG!?

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Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Wheeee posted:

the point of wargames is to expose weaknesses, in addition to maintaining readiness among personnel. they they always go back and reset to a win condition is for political and morale purposes

this idea that America’s armed forces are a paper tiger is wishful thinking and people should be horrified at the idea of a real war in the modern era

Why is it those weaknesses don’t seem to be fixed even years after they are brought up?

Weka
May 5, 2019

That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.
Hacking chat has me wondering how vulnerable things like the Chinese power grid are. I'm willing to bet much less than the American one.

Wheeee
Mar 11, 2001

When a tree grows, it is soft and pliable. But when it's dry and hard, it dies.

Hardness and strength are death's companions. Flexibility and softness are the embodiment of life.

That which has become hard shall not triumph.

Ardennes posted:

Why is it those weaknesses don’t seem to be fixed even years after they are brought up?

pobody’s nerfect

Centrist Committee
Aug 6, 2019
this thread reminds me how the old british empire was so sure of a quick victory in ww1, because the officer corp was a dumping ground for the inbred aristocracy

vyelkin
Jan 2, 2011

Centrist Committee posted:

this thread reminds me how the old british empire was so sure of a quick victory in ww1, because the officer corp was a dumping ground for the inbred aristocracy

the US was also sure of a quick victory in Korea, and Vietnam, and Iraq, and Afghanistan

Centrist Committee
Aug 6, 2019

vyelkin posted:

the US was also sure of a quick victory in Korea, and Vietnam, and Iraq, and Afghanistan

the us is the buffalo bills of asian land war belligerents

Centrist Committee
Aug 6, 2019
tremendous losers baby, b-bye

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Centrist Committee posted:

this thread reminds me how the old british empire was so sure of a quick victory in ww1, because the officer corp was a dumping ground for the inbred aristocracy

The same aristocracy also made big errors in not realizing how new inventions like the Maxim machine gun would change the battlefield.

skooma512
Feb 8, 2012

You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.
Some quick thoughts:


How is the US planning on countering the threat of Chinese submarines when they've decommissioned the Oliver Hazard Perry class? They seem to be relying on Arleigh Burke and Ticonderoga classes for all of their surface based ASW needs. Presumably with US submarines and P-3/P-8 flights making up the difference. Keeping in mind that neither ASW airframe is carrier based itself. The first hull of the new frigates isn't due until 2026 lol.

How amenable would the US population be to conscription? Would conscription even be feasible given that even the most rushed of training schedules is like what, 6 months, and a hot China war will probably deplete US ship and air assets in at most that much time, meaning there isn't even a way to get the bodies from here to there. To say nothing of the economic upheaval that will take place since so much of the US economy is just reselling and distributing poo poo from China.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

etalian posted:

The same aristocracy also made big errors in not realizing how new inventions like the Maxim machine gun would change the battlefield.

Oh they knew it, they just didn't want to think about it. Besides, machineguns had already been introduced in the Franco-Prussian war, and despite the French having better repeating firearms they still lost to Prussian mobilization power. Surely this war will be won by whoever can mobilize and deploy their forces the fastest...

It was really a combination of things. Machineguns, barbed wire, and massed artillery were huge game changers when combined together - but European countries had never fought wars where all the weapons of industry were necessary.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

skooma512 posted:

Some quick thoughts:


How is the US planning on countering the threat of Chinese submarines when they've decommissioned the Oliver Hazard Perry class? They seem to be relying on Arleigh Burke and Ticonderoga classes for all of their surface based ASW needs. Presumably with US submarines and P-3/P-8 flights making up the difference. Keeping in mind that neither ASW airframe is carrier based itself. The first hull of the new frigates isn't due until 2026 lol.

How amenable would the US population be to conscription? Would conscription even be feasible given that even the most rushed of training schedules is like what, 6 months, and a hot China war will probably deplete US ship and air assets in at most that much time, meaning there isn't even a way to get the bodies from here to there. To say nothing of the economic upheaval that will take place since so much of the US economy is just reselling and distributing poo poo from China.

absolutely no way the US successfully leverages the draft even against china.

right now the best equivalent we can do is just make our populous so impoverished that enlistment incentives might mean your mother lives instead of dies etc. anything like a real draft that would put suburban families at risk? impossible.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

We're more likely to see people reject a draft for purely libertarian reasons than that they're afraid to lose a child.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




yeah I think the pandemic has made that quite clear.

Top Gun Reference
Oct 9, 2012
Pillbug

skooma512 posted:

Some quick thoughts:


How is the US planning on countering the threat of Chinese submarines when they've decommissioned the Oliver Hazard Perry class? They seem to be relying on Arleigh Burke and Ticonderoga classes for all of their surface based ASW needs. Presumably with US submarines and P-3/P-8 flights making up the difference. Keeping in mind that neither ASW airframe is carrier based itself. The first hull of the new frigates isn't due until 2026 lol.

By wishing very hard that they’ll go away, probably. USN also retired the S-3, so carriers have to rely on helicopters for ASW now which don’t have nearly the range as the old viking. Surface escorts are all well and good, but diesel boats are very, very quiet and deadly. And China has a fuckload of them.



This is a pretty famous pic from the periscope of a German diesel-electric boat that penetrated the ASW screen of the Enterprise during exercises in 2001 and got right up in her grill. That CV would be dead as gently caress in a real war. Like, super dead.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

Top Gun Reference posted:

By wishing very hard that they’ll go away, probably. USN also retired the S-3, so carriers have to rely on helicopters for ASW now which don’t have nearly the range as the old viking. Surface escorts are all well and good, but diesel boats are very, very quiet and deadly. And China has a fuckload of them.



This is a pretty famous pic from the periscope of a German diesel-electric boat that penetrated the ASW screen of the Enterprise during exercises in 2001 and got right up in her grill. That CV would be dead as gently caress in a real war. Like, super dead.

Username/post combo

Weka
May 5, 2019

That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.
I'm thinking between the liberals and the neo-cons America might be able to swing a draft. It'd probably work if they barely enforced it like with Vietnam.

They drafted 2.2 million dudes during Vietnam and

"during the Vietnam era, approximately 570,000 young men were classified as draft offenders,[3] and approximately 210,000 were formally accused of draft violations;[6][3] however, only 8,750 were convicted and only 3,250 were jailed."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Draft_evasion_in_the_Vietnam_War

GoLambo
Apr 11, 2006
Vietnam also saw hundreds of officers caught up in attempted fragging by mostly non drafted enlisted men.

I have no idea what a real hot conventional style conflict would look like but I imagine the social cohesion of US society before that conflict starts is going to matter a whole lot more than who has the hottest anti ship missile.

My actual guess is that the US public's demand for consumer goods far outweighs their loyalty to the state, and that any major conflict is going to be decided politically rather than militarily. There is basically no good reason to die for this stupid country when being bought off by global capital flows is infinitely more appealing for nearly every single civilian in this country including it's entrenched bourgeoisie. The US does not have the industrial capacity to even temporarily server international trade without suffering severe economic shock and the states existing capacity or will to shore up that difference to go on a war footing was absolutely proven impossible by COVID.

It's loving over before it starts.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
Yeah, I don’t see a lot of enthusiasm coming from the population even if they are being blasted by propaganda. Living standards and life expectancy are already rapidly declining and cutting off trade with most of Asia isn’t going to help things. I could see regular units being held in reserve to back the NG domestically.

That said, I don’t want to go as far as say true US is toothless. The USN even if it is aging and overstretched can still inflict damage and the show isn’t over until the USD collapses. Also, if anyone has been paying attention, it is clear that the US has been conducting a gladio 2.0 in the EU.

Wizard Master
Mar 25, 2008

I found out that the war had 'started' last night, thanks to a text message from a workmate who'd only left half an hour ago. All the message said was "War has started", making me think for a minute that his girlfriend had found out about his supposed New Years antics. I later realised what he meant and texted him back asking what the score was.

I think overall I've been quite cynical about the whole war thing. I know it sounds terrible but I've been too busy worrying about my own life to think about some poor sods thousands of miles away who are only going to die because George Dubya has an EXTREMELY dangerous combination of an itchy trigger finger, a vehement desire for cheap oil, and a hatred of brown people (well, the Middle East in general).

I confess, however, that I know very little about the whole situation. I know the basics, but although the war has been running continuously on every channel on TV for the last 3 months; I don't watch much TV. And I try and skip around the subject in conversation because I'm slightly worried I might blurt out something really cold (maybe something like "How exciting - what's the score?" I suppose), which would make people pissed off at me. That doesn't usually worry me, but some people are getting really into the whole anti-war thing.

I, in my limited scope of the subject, can give 2 conditions, either or both of which being fulfilled would result in me being convinced that there is a moral case for war.

The first condition is that America can do whatever they want - they can rip the heads off Iraqi children and feed them to llamas; throw grenades into schools in Baghdad; have McDonalds bring out a whole new line of milksheikhs in response - but they can't have even a drop of that precious, precious oil. If you really are charging into this thing headlong for justice, to spread freedom throughout the Middle East, to promote liberty and democracy throughout the whole world, then the oil shouldn't even be awarded as a spoil. No oil for you, America. That'd prove that at least you aren't completely living up to your reputation as utter capitalist pigdogs.

The second condition is that if George Bush wants this war so damned much, he should be fighting on the front line. Dress him up in desert camo, give him a gun and a camera crew, and see what he does. Heck, that Jackass'd make funnier viewing than the popular TV show of the same name.

I think the whole thing stems from when people take their jobs too damned seriously. Look at Saddam; living the high life in his glorious palace of marble and silk, no doubt arranging extravagant dinner parties with his many look-a-likes. Come to think of it, that sight alone would make any red-blooded fat-headed American rush to arms. But George Bush and Tony Blair (the guy in charge of my country, for the politically-declined) are spending day after day, night after night, speech after speech labouring over all the fine points, the pros and cons of war, extending ridiculous ultimatums and attempting to stir up the common people into a frenzy of racial hatred. And it stretches to such petty lengths - New York's eateries have even spurned the noble French Fry because of Chiraq's auto-veto manoeuvre - but so the fat little Yanks can still have their fill of fat and assorted condiments, they didn't take them off the menu. No, no, they renamed them "Freedom Fries". That's enough to make me sick, and I love fries.

I guess all of this is speculation since the war has already 'begun'. But I'd be very interested (oh yes, VERY interested indeed) to hear others' views on this sensitive, but in some ways really very silly 'situation'.

America wants oil. Britain wants to be better friends with America. Well, Tony Blair does. Tony Blair wants to lick America's grotesquely obese rear end in a top hat. He's probably not getting any from Cherie because she's too busy committing gross fraud with 'friends'.

Two final thoughts - one in pictorial format: firstly, Louis, the laziest man I know (and I know quite a few, including myself), a friend of mine I've known for many years and can completely assure you of his absolute lackadaisical, apathetic, bone-idle, torpid nature, recently attended the mass anti-war march in Hyde Park on the 15th of February. This involved him getting on a packed train, then a bustling London Underground, then being crowded in with another 1,499,999 people in the park itself, before walking around shouting things. Now, if you knew Louis, you wouldn't believe he'd undertake all of that just for his beliefs. In fact, at first I thought it was because he'd met a girl and was going to meet her there (the only feasible explanation I could come up with at the time). But no. Brave Luigi went along, marched, shouted, imbibed large quantities of beer and then went home tired and satisfied. And I salute the man, and would have all of you do the same.

My final thought is ripped from Steve's website, which is a true haven of political and religious satirical beauty. It was originally ripped from somewhere else, so I feel no pangs of guilt stealing it. I think this picture sums the whole thing up, as well as making me laugh lots. Thanks for reading (if you did) - this wasn't meant to go on as long as it has, but I think I've now satisfied myself for being silent on the subject up until now.

Weka
May 5, 2019

That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.

Ardennes posted:

Yeah, I don’t see a lot of enthusiasm coming from the population even if they are being blasted by propaganda. Living standards and life expectancy are already rapidly declining and cutting off trade with most of Asia isn’t going to help things. I could see regular units being held in reserve to back the NG domestically.

That said, I don’t want to go as far as say true US is toothless. The USN even if it is aging and overstretched can still inflict damage and the show isn’t over until the USD collapses. Also, if anyone has been paying attention, it is clear that the US has been conducting a gladio 2.0 in the EU.

Hmmm maybe. Americans seem pretty stupid though.
Let's examine some potential propaganda.
Covid is China's fault.
So is the fall in living standards.
Remember the massive prosperity after WW2?
Gulf of Tonkin crossed with Pearl Harbor aka 9.11 v2.

It's that last one that I think would really galvanize popular opinion.

That said I don't think the ruling class actually wants this war but what do I know?

Xeom
Mar 16, 2007
are there enough non obese Americans to even fight a war? aren’t people ages 18-25 like super fat right now?

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

Xeom posted:

are there enough non obese Americans to even fight a war? aren’t people ages 18-25 like super fat right now?
All Americans are super fat, even if it continues to get worse. But yeah, I do believe I've read an article about the military bemoaning the state of their recruitment pool, and things haven't improved since then. Good thing you don't need to be slim to fly a drone.

Palladium
May 8, 2012

Very Good
✔️✔️✔️✔️

A Buttery Pastry posted:

All Americans are super fat, even if it continues to get worse. But yeah, I do believe I've read an article about the military bemoaning the state of their recruitment pool, and things haven't improved since then. Good thing you don't need to be slim to fly a drone.

1/3 of the adult populace is too dumb to even pass the most basic of military entrance aptitude tests. We are talking about math questions a chinese kid could do by age 6 like 3 x 137.

And this is the result of having the 4th highest per capita spending in pre-college education in the world, lmao

Fish of hemp
Apr 1, 2011

A friendly little mouse!
Who will sell China their oil? Those fancy ships and planes consume a lot of fuel and it has come from somewhere. And I don't think anyone in Middle East wants to risk operation COUNTRY_NAME Freedom.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Fish of hemp posted:

Who will sell China their oil? Those fancy ships and planes consume a lot of fuel and it has come from somewhere. And I don't think anyone in Middle East wants to risk operation COUNTRY_NAME Freedom.

Russian and Aidan, that is why China has built pipelines to both.

Okuteru
Nov 10, 2007

Choose this life you're on your own

Palladium posted:

1/3 of the adult populace is too dumb to even pass the most basic of military entrance aptitude tests. We are talking about math questions a chinese kid could do by age 6 like 3 x 137.

And this is the result of having the 4th highest per capita spending in pre-college education in the world, lmao

A lot of that money goes to useless make work administrators with God Complexes. The teacher subreddit is rife with stories of teachers leaving the profession due to low pay.

vyelkin
Jan 2, 2011

Forceholy posted:

A lot of that money goes to useless make work administrators with God Complexes. The teacher subreddit is rife with stories of teachers leaving the profession due to low pay.

It's also that it's extremely unequal. Rich kid schools in places with high property values have all the resources and pay teachers well because the goal is to train the children of doctors and lawyers and bankers into future doctors and lawyers and bankers, and poor kid schools in places with low property values are lucky if they can afford windows or sealant to keep rats out of classrooms, and pay teachers like poo poo because the goal is to train the children of Walmart employees into future Walmart employees. The problem with this approach for an institution like the US military is that the well-educated kids don't tend to join the military.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




our education problem is a poverty problem

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
It is, also at the same time, even the middle class is struggling to pay for an education and it is quickly becoming a luxury. I know the k-12 system in Oregon is slowly but surely collapsing on itself, Portland is talking about moving to a 4 day school week (Oregon also has some of the lowest numbers of instructional days in the country.

At a certain point, either you pay full freight from pre-school through graduate school or you are just going to be at a disadvantage. As much as you can criticize Russia, it isn’t the same way here.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




yeah a lot of that is the pandemic.

everybody with money has already fled the system. then the reaction got captured by right wing fuckwits.

so does it ever get better. they’d have to admit there was a problem and that they hosed up. districts think nothing is wrong.

:rubby:

Armacham
Mar 3, 2007

Then brothers in war, to the skirmish must we hence! Shall we hence?

Forceholy posted:

A lot of that money goes to useless make work administrators with God Complexes. The teacher subreddit is rife with stories of teachers leaving the profession due to low pay.

Low pay, abuse from students and parents, no regard for health and safety. I'm so glad I quit at the beginning of this.

Okuteru
Nov 10, 2007

Choose this life you're on your own
The pandemic has exposed that a lot of student come from terrible households and teachers are not equipped to fix systemic issues, nor should they.

It also exposed tons of parents who wanted kids but didn't sign up to be parents.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Forceholy posted:

The pandemic has exposed that a lot of student come from terrible households and teachers are not equipped to fix systemic issues, nor should they.

It also exposed tons of parents who wanted kids but didn't sign up to be parents.

nah

kids need more than just the nuclear family. socialization isn’t a want it’s a need for their development. placing the failures of society on individuals is always reactionary horseshit.

teachers also aren’t at fault. our governments and society, the things that can affect systemic issues are.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy


gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy


Bro Dad
Mar 26, 2010


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAH-SQ_wgbg

strange feelings re Daisy
Aug 2, 2000

US government is so weak they can't even stop their own armed forces from destroying themselves with plague lmao
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1478239840227450882?s=20
https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/status/1478437671286546432
https://twitter.com/SpokespersonCHN/status/1475841540404563968?s=20

E Depois do Adeus
Jun 3, 2012


Nobody has better respect for intelligence than Donald Trump.

Ardennes posted:

Also, if anyone has been paying attention, it is clear that the US has been conducting a gladio 2.0 in the EU.

Sorry I haven't been paying attention, what is this in reference to?

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Ardennes
May 12, 2002

E Depois do Adeus posted:

Sorry I haven't been paying attention, what is this in reference to?

Attempting to influence multiple elections, especially vis a vie Nordstream 2.

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