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Facebook Aunt posted:This is fine Holy poo poo. Yeah there is definitely a ton of underreporting going on. Those charts are insane enough already.
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Dec 30, 2021 15:43
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Entorwellian posted:Holy poo poo. oh you wanna see some insane charts???? lol i got just the thing for you    
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Dec 30, 2021 15:46
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vyelkin posted:similarly, Ontario's line is vertical but stalled for a few days at 10k cases/day over Christmas even while test positivity rose from like 18% to like 30%. You can bet your house that those 10k cases are a severe underestimate That's the max detection capacity.
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Dec 30, 2021 15:48
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Those numbers are probably off by a factor of at least 2. My wife and I caught COVID a couple weeks ago but only she got a positive PCR test (I was later positive by rapid test). Now we know several other couples who are positive with no hope of ever getting a PCR test and being registered as a case. When it comes to estimating how bad this will be for hospitals, not knowing the denominator in the equation makes things very difficult.
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Dec 30, 2021 15:53
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Rutibex posted:dont, every time you get covid it does permanent organ damage. I have a zero covid policy even if the craven government doesn't like many policies, this sounds nice but is seemingly impossible to enact for depressing reasons. I can decrease my risk of infection. I don't know how to make it zero
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Dec 30, 2021 16:19
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just to be clear, because the chart is a bit odd, is this meant to show that while 2-dose vaccinations are no longer as effective at preventing infection, there is no significant change in either hospital or ICU visits among those with 2-dose vaccinations?
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Dec 30, 2021 16:22
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infernal machines posted:just to be clear, because the chart is a bit odd, is this meant to show that while 2-dose vaccinations are no longer as effective at preventing infection, there is no significant change in either hospital or ICU visits among those with 2-dose vaccinations? Yes, so far at least. Because hospitalizations and ICU admissions are lagging indicators, we won't know for sure until we can look at how this graph changes over the next month. Thankfully the science table updates it every few days.
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Dec 30, 2021 16:24
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i thought so, between the 14th and the 28th we should see some movement, and there is a tiny bit in hospitalizations it appears, but seemingly not a 1:1 correlation.
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Dec 30, 2021 16:28
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vyelkin posted:Yes, so far at least. Because hospitalizations and ICU admissions are lagging indicators, we won't know for sure until we can look at how this graph changes over the next month. Thankfully the science table updates it every few days. David Fisman seems to think there's something to this https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1476322197190766593 https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1476339754883035138 Fingers crossed we may have some reason for optimism. e: Fisman is far from perfect but he's been pretty data driven and cynical throughout this crisis. If he says something positive about the state of COVID, my ears perk up. Another Bill has issued a correction as of 16:31 on Dec 30, 2021 |
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Dec 30, 2021 16:29
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Yes, there may be some reasons to be optimistic about severity, but I remain hesitant to be really optimistic about it for two reasons. The first is this: https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1476322445250338818 Severity is a linear change while transmissibility is an exponential one. If you have a disease that is twice as transmissible but half as deadly, it will kill more people than a disease that is twice as deadly but half as transmissible. The second is that for obvious reasons we don't know what long-term effects of Omicron infection will be, but we know that past variants have afflicted up to 10% of cases with various Long Covid symptoms and can have severe health outcomes even for people who don't die. Covid has never been a disease where you either die or you make a full recovery, there's a huge grey area in between those two outcomes and people with long-term post-Covid problems can have future health issues exacerbated by them - there was one study in the UK, for instance, that found (if I remember the numbers right) that something like 1 in 4 people admitted to the hospital for Covid died within four months of being released, whether from Covid or from another cause, and said this is likely because of the damage Covid did to their bodies: even if they didn't die of it, it did enough damage that they were weakened enough to die of something else shortly afterwards (e: went and checked this for certainty's sake, it was 1 in 8 patients hospitalized with Covid died within four months of release). I sure as hell hope that Omicron is not as severe as previous variants, and that it doesn't have similar long-term effects, but we just don't know that yet because we have only known it existed for a month. It was only reported to the WHO on November 24th, literally five weeks ago, so we have no clue how it affects people in the long run. This is why, even if it does prove to be less severe, it has been extremely irresponsible for governments around the world, including in Canada, to just let it rip through the population. Our strategy for dealing with it so far has been "hope it's not as bad as the other variants" and if it turns out that is the case it's because we got lucky, not because we did the right thing. vyelkin has issued a correction as of 16:43 on Dec 30, 2021 |
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Dec 30, 2021 16:39
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Yeah, for sure. I meant to post that 'it's still going to overwhelm the hospitals' part too.
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Dec 30, 2021 16:44
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Polio is also not severe and asymptomatic or mild for most people.
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Dec 30, 2021 16:55
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bump
Futanari Damacy has issued a correction as of 13:53 on Oct 29, 2022 |
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Dec 30, 2021 17:01
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Anecdotally everyone I know is getting covid on rapid tests but no one is getting counted because they don't go get molecular. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if amount of cases is 10x higher
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Dec 30, 2021 17:04
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highly relevant to this discussion, Ontario just announced numbers for today. Cases: 13,807, up from 10,436 yesterday Deaths: 8, up from 3 yesterday Hospitalizations: 965, up from 726 yesterday ICU: 200, up from 190 yesterday Test positivity: 30.5%, up from 26.9% yesterday If we're going to see a hospitalization wave from Omicron, this looks an awful lot like the beginning of it.
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Dec 30, 2021 17:08
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Futanari Damacy posted:Lol they're hoping that the people that they won't give any assistance to and could never afford private care are going to be begging for privatization. INTERESTING STRATEGY, LET'S SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT You will be surprised to find out that a lot of idiots want that because they think once it's privatized there will be cheap prices because health care providers will have to compete for business like their retail business does.
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Dec 30, 2021 17:09
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Between the poo poo show that retail has been for the last year+ and our loving mobile industry, you'd think they would piece together how many different ways private health care could gently caress us, but piecing things together is probably not their strong suit.
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Dec 30, 2021 17:19
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skewetoo posted:Anecdotally everyone I know is getting covid on rapid tests but no one is getting counted because they don't go get molecular. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if amount of cases is 10x higher i tested negative on two rapid antigen tests, but i didn't get my hands on them until a week after the onset of symptoms. still waiting for anything more than an automated acknowledgement that i'm on a waiting list for a PCR test, it's been a week and a half now.
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Dec 30, 2021 17:20
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infernal machines posted:i tested negative on two rapid antigen tests, but i didn't get my hands on them until a week after the onset of symptoms. still waiting for anything more than an automated acknowledgement that i'm on a waiting list for a PCR test, it's been a week and a half now. All the positive rapid cases I know of tried to get molecular but the nearest days was like mid January and gave up. Detection and reporting system is completely broken.
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Dec 30, 2021 17:30
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vyelkin posted:highly relevant to this discussion, Ontario just announced numbers for today. Yeah, those hospitalization numbers are not great.
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Dec 30, 2021 17:30
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skewetoo posted:All the positive rapid cases I know of tried to get molecular but the nearest days was like mid January and gave up. Detection and reporting system is completely broken. after a certain point it's moot because you're either hospitalized or you've recovered (to whatever degree that happens). we've dropped the isolation period to 10 days, so afaik i can now return to work, which is all that matters, really.
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Dec 30, 2021 17:38
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infernal machines posted:after a certain point it's moot because you're either hospitalized or you've recovered (to whatever degree that happens). idk other provinces but nova scotia calls you recovered after a couple weeks even if you're still in the hospital
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Dec 30, 2021 18:08
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I’m not worried about dying from omicron. I’m worried about dying of appendicitis or heart attack or just about anything serious because all the doctors and nurses are either isolating or burned out the severity of omicron is irrelevant at this point.
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Dec 30, 2021 18:25
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pokeyman posted:idk other provinces but nova scotia calls you recovered after a couple weeks even if you're still in the hospital in Ontario I was not considered recovered by the system until a couple weeks after I got out of the hospital
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Dec 30, 2021 18:30
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covid shjits too depressing i dont wanna hear about it, i think ill cut my balls off if i hear' covid' again
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Dec 30, 2021 18:36
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802.11weed posted:covid shjits too depressing i dont wanna hear about it, i think ill cut my balls off if i hear' covid' again also from personal experience that will go much better if you get a trained professional to do it for you
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Dec 30, 2021 18:39
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Noblesse Obliged posted:I’m not worried about dying from omicron. I’m worried about dying of appendicitis or heart attack or just about anything serious because all the doctors and nurses are either isolating or burned out I went into the emergency room in July with chest pains and after a CT scan the doctor basically walked by the room and said "It's probably covid, we're giving you a test and discharging you". The test was of course negative, the only symptom i had was chest pain. A couple painful months later i was back in there with a cough and extremely severe pain and it turns out i had a bi-lateral pulmonary embolism that was affecting most of my lungs. Once that covid test came back negative it was like a switch was flipped that hey, there's actually something wrong and I'm not just the 100th covid case of the day. I had to stay on the surgery recovery ward because the rest of the hospital was full of unvaxxed people with covid. Our ICU was like 150% over capacity at that time so if i ever needed it, it either wouldn't be an option, or i would be surrounded by hundreds of covid cases and probably get it myself and die.
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Dec 30, 2021 18:46
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drat that is hosed up. I'm glad you're not dead but I'm furious that our leaders have allowed healthcare capacity to degrade to that point.
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Dec 30, 2021 18:49
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Arivia posted:also from personal experience that will go much better if you get a trained professional to do it for you
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Dec 30, 2021 18:50
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Arivia posted:also from personal experience that will go much better if you get a trained professional to do it for you i wish i had the courage to leave the closet lol lmao etc
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Dec 30, 2021 18:55
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pokeyman posted:like many policies, this sounds nice but is seemingly impossible to enact for depressing reasons. I can decrease my risk of infection. I don't know how to make it zero if you are vaccinated the chances of it producing long term damage are low. this all has to do with how much it spreads in you before your immune system blunts it, and T-cells protect you against the majority of possible damage. everyone should do everything they can to avoid it because it’s a numbers game at this point and there is always odds, albeit low, that a significant or systemic infection develops due to weakness in the immune system but unless government actually intervenes here, people like me who can’t work from home are at significant risk, plus just general increased risk from necessities like grocery shopping
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Dec 30, 2021 19:07
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vyelkin posted:drat that is hosed up. I'm glad you're not dead but I'm furious that our leaders have allowed healthcare capacity to degrade to that point. On the brighter side, MOST of the nurses were still extremely nice and caring and helpful. The day shift emergency room doc didn't seem to give a poo poo, but the doctor that i had through the stay seemingly read my whole file which isn't a light read. There are some extremely strong, compassionate people holding our society together and the mediocre white men in charge have asked them to take a retroactive pay cut after years without raises. I can't put into words how angry that makes me. Powershift has issued a correction as of 19:13 on Dec 30, 2021 |
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Dec 30, 2021 19:07
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bump
Futanari Damacy has issued a correction as of 13:53 on Oct 29, 2022 |
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Dec 30, 2021 19:20
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Futanari Damacy posted:Anything that is not instant death = minor symptom! please take a break from the internet and go outside
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Dec 30, 2021 19:24
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CLAM DOWN posted:please take a break from the internet and go outside isnt like 2/3 of the country experiencing "your flesh will freeze in minutes" coldness right now
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Dec 30, 2021 19:29
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blatman posted:isnt like 2/3 of the country experiencing "your flesh will freeze in minutes" coldness right now yes, coward
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Dec 30, 2021 19:31
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It's an exciting opportunity to dress like a Gundam mech
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Dec 30, 2021 19:32
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bump
Futanari Damacy has issued a correction as of 13:53 on Oct 29, 2022 |
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Dec 30, 2021 19:32
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I don't think posters are coming to the CSPAM Canadian Politics thread to get their daily dose of normalcy bias
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Dec 30, 2021 19:52
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normalcy-spam
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Dec 30, 2021 20:08
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