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Which horse film is your favorite?
This poll is closed.
Black Beauty 2 1.06%
A Talking Pony!?! 4 2.13%
Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor 117 62.23%
War Horse 11 5.85%
Mr. Hands 54 28.72%
Total: 188 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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Arglebargle III
Feb 21, 2006

This conversation is totally disconnected from the reality I see in the public school classroom. The overall sentiment is that covid is over. Only a small proportion of people are still wearing masks. My state is about 50% vaccinated.

I would be surprised if more than half of families in our community were even aware of the omicron wave. Most people do not consume media like the people in this forum.

"Zero Covid" people are a tiny minority.

We are going to get absolutely slammed when school reopens without a mask mandate. As usual the public health data we need to make informed decisions is going to arrive 2 weeks late.

From my perspective, the virus is in charge. We have put ourselves entirely in its little protein spikes. Everybody saying it's going to be merciful this time you better be right.

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crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

Kalit posted:

buddy, if you think it's quick and easy to enforce all private retail businesses to be shut down, i'd love to hear how :allears:
one happened multiple times around the world in the past 2 years and the other has happened maybe only in china??

are you really arguing 100% population vaccination mandates are easier/faster than lockdowns

you know there are also kids and the immunocompromised who cant get vaccinated right

Wang Commander
Dec 27, 2003

by sebmojo

Zodium posted:

this is year two of what is about to become a very, very long game. as we move to an uncontrolled endemicity trajectory, covid will have plenty of opportunities for exploring paths. we’ll see what the numbers look like in 20 years.

this is the path that was chosen for us.

We do not have 20 years left in the face of climate change and multiple peer/near-peer adversaries if we cannot accomplish public health and defense production functions that we have accomplished since the Revolution. We have allowed the police and oligarchs to run the country to their own ends, and they have hollowed it out, kings of the mountain of poo poo that is our lovely little nonviable societal local maximum, totally sheltered from material realities that will inevitably come crashing down.

Zodium
Jun 19, 2004

yeah.

MikeC
Jul 19, 2004
BITCH ASS NARC

crepeface posted:

ok but do you think hospital beds (we call them hobbos in oz) being at a critical tipping point is a problem

Health experts that advise the government that I am subject to have never expressed concerns with that as an issue in my jurisdiction. They have always stressed ICU numbers in a primary number to watch. If they have never worried about that metric, I am not that worried. I assume that is simply because they can expand capacity for those spaces rapidly and dilution of staff in those wards is more easily tolerated without negative health outcomes.

crepeface posted:

Love how you state with certainty that COVID isn't an issue massively contributing to healthcare worker burnout.

I say that with certainty because the drums have been banging on this for 10 years. Google is your friend. Since I am a nice guy, I'll go back in time and pull a couple of links for you. poo poo, looks like COVID went back in time too. Nevermind.

https://www.huffpost.com/archive/ca/entry/nurse-shortage-canada_n_10208080
https://nursesunions.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/experts_and_evidence.inside.sept_7.pdf

Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

crepeface posted:

one happened multiple times around the world in the past 2 years and the other has happened maybe only in china??

are you really arguing 100% population vaccination mandates are easier/faster than lockdowns

you know there are also kids and the immunocompromised who cant get vaccinated right

No, I'm talking about mandates to go into private retail businesses. I thought that was obvious, from the context of my posts. My point is it's just as easy to enforce a vaccine/mask/etc mandate on those businesses as it is to enforce those private businesses to remain closed.

Which brings me back to my original point, of why it's stupid as gently caress to claim "Shutting retail is still a good idea" when we have decent science/knowledge on how to help mitigate this virus so it doesn't infect everyone in the same room. Especially since some of them are 100% needed, such as grocery, hardware, etc.

Kalit fucked around with this message at 07:03 on Dec 31, 2021

Zodium
Jun 19, 2004

to be clear, I’m not making any policy recommendations beyond a strong urging for zero covid as a general strategic goal to be pursued vigorously and proactively by any means possible. zero covid is the only viable strategy. these means will differ between countries, but the goal is invariant. I just want to make clear the scale of the obstacles on the path that was chosen for us.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Nursing shortages were a big problem in Canada before the pandemic for sure.

But it 100% has made things much worse especially in ICU/critical care even over the course of just this year. We don't even have the same staffing capability in the hospital I'm at that we did back in this spring, let alone March 2020.

Like here's an example. There were cases of nurses from non-COVID/Critical Care units quitting or retiring early back during the last wave when mandatory redeployment was on the table rather than have to be redeployed to a COVID ICU. It wasn't some mass resignation but it did happen.

Mr Luxury Yacht fucked around with this message at 07:16 on Dec 31, 2021

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
imo we're currently pursuing more of a zero hospitals strategy

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

MikeC posted:

Health experts that advise the government that I am subject to have never expressed concerns with that as an issue in my jurisdiction. They have always stressed ICU numbers in a primary number to watch. If they have never worried about that metric, I am not that worried. I assume that is simply because they can expand capacity for those spaces rapidly and dilution of staff in those wards is more easily tolerated without negative health outcomes.

I say that with certainty because the drums have been banging on this for 10 years. Google is your friend. Since I am a nice guy, I'll go back in time and pull a couple of links for you. poo poo, looks like COVID went back in time too. Nevermind.

https://www.huffpost.com/archive/ca/entry/nurse-shortage-canada_n_10208080
https://nursesunions.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/experts_and_evidence.inside.sept_7.pdf

so your argument is that if hospital beds are at a critical point, that's fine? sorry but that's a lmao from me.

also did you know that wildfires, typhoons and floods have been a problem going back for decades? do you agree that climate change has amplified the problem to such a degree that it must be halted?

Wang Commander
Dec 27, 2003

by sebmojo
Also the "good times" of the northern summer in 2021 have basically been memory-holed. It definitely seems like properly-tailored vaccines at the tail end of a wave can get us to within striking distance of covid-zero without any lockdowns at all. The proper answer is probably something along the lines of massive, directly government-controlled expansion of vaccine facilities to allow concurrent development of variant boosters without having to bet all of your production on a potential non-starter. The billions and billions of slightly-mistargeted doses can be exported to places with no doses at all and probably achieve something like the Delta or Omicron efficacies of the original 2 or 3 shots. Scale mab production (supposedly much harder?) concurrently. I understand that none of these are off-the-shelf items but full (total war) mobilization of the related industries and cannibalizing from adjacent but nonessential sectors has not even been tried.

People were much more enthusiastic when the vaccines were sterilizing, and they are unenthusiastic about lockdowns, retail closures, etc. If you want to build a "living with the virus" industrial back-end it looks like nationalization of healthcare and pharma.

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

Kalit posted:

Which brings me back to my original point, of why it's stupid as gently caress to claim "Shutting retail is still a good idea" when we have decent science/knowledge on how to help mitigate this virus so it doesn't infect everyone in the same room. Especially since some of them are 100% needed, such as grocery, hardware, etc.

cool leave grocery and hardware stores open then

that's what we did in WA.

we also left restaurants open but only for takeaway food

Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

crepeface posted:

cool leave grocery and hardware stores open then

that's what we did in WA.

we also left restaurants open but only for takeaway food

So... why did you even start objecting to my posts? Back to what I stated to you multiple posts back.....

Kalit posted:

.....if you'd follow back the quotes, you could see I'm referring to this part of a post (emphasis is mine):

Wang Commander
Dec 27, 2003

by sebmojo
I'm not even sure what you guys are arguing about retail for considering pretty much everywhere has unmasked activities galore.

We can either build up the capacity to distribute sterilizing vaccines without risking a year of no vaccines that work at all, or we can close down the literal suck and fucks going on in nightclubs, concerts, etc.

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

Kalit posted:

So... why did you even start objecting to my posts? Back to what I stated to you multiple posts back.....

because of the dumb things that were said in them?

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!

Wang Commander posted:

Also the "good times" of the northern summer in 2021 have basically been memory-holed. It definitely seems like properly-tailored vaccines at the tail end of a wave can get us to within striking distance of covid-zero without any lockdowns at all. The proper answer is probably something along the lines of massive, directly government-controlled expansion of vaccine facilities to allow concurrent development of variant boosters without having to bet all of your production on a potential non-starter. The billions and billions of slightly-mistargeted doses can be exported to places with no doses at all and probably achieve something like the Delta or Omicron efficacies of the original 2 or 3 shots. Scale mab production (supposedly much harder?) concurrently. I understand that none of these are off-the-shelf items but full (total war) mobilization of the related industries and cannibalizing from adjacent but nonessential sectors has not even been tried.

People were much more enthusiastic when the vaccines were sterilizing, and they are unenthusiastic about lockdowns, retail closures, etc. If you want to build a "living with the virus" industrial back-end it looks like nationalization of healthcare and pharma.

I agree, we should nationalize ice cream and other frozen treat manufacturing capacity and convert it to producing variant-specific vaccines and monoclonal antibodies.

Wang Commander
Dec 27, 2003

by sebmojo

Fritz the Horse posted:

I agree, we should nationalize ice cream and other frozen treat manufacturing capacity and convert it to producing variant-specific vaccines and monoclonal antibodies.

I'm not saying you could have mabs rolling off the Fudgie the Whale line tomorrow, but if mobilization and central planning have become inherently laughable concepts we're hosed for numerous reasons.

Precambrian Video Games
Aug 19, 2002



I'm trying to decide whether to take heart from the not-so-bad South Africa and London/UK (yet) news, or poo poo my pants at New Jersey reporting 35,000 new cases yesterday (nearly 0.4% of the entire 9.3M population). Even if that's partly from a post-Christmas reporting lag, it's still well over double the pre-omicron high. Hospitalizations are around 3600 and still rising, having not cracked 4000 in either the March-April 2020 or January-February 2021 waves. NYC looks similarly bad, perhaps just a week or so behind.

I'm not really understanding the large discrepancies between hospitalization rates in NJ/NY vs elsewhere. Are there much different reporting standards? I'm comparing with e.g. Ontario, 14M population, last reported 13k new cases daily but has overwhelmed testing capacity, still under 1k hospitalizations. Ontario has a significantly higher vaccination rate but hasn't had boosters available as long. I don't see NJ numbers split on vaccination status. One difference might be delta still being present:

northjersey.com posted:

Hackensack Meridian detected the omicron variant in slightly fewer than 40% of the positive COVID test samples earlier this week from patients admitted to its hospitals, said Perlin, head of the system’s Center for Discovery and Innovation. “Everything else is delta,” he said. The delta variant of COVID-19 has been the dominant strain in New Jersey through the summer and fall.

The Hackensack laboratory looks for the signature mutations of virus variants on hundreds of positive samples each week. Two weeks ago it detected the omicron variant in 13% of those samples, from nasal pharyngeal swabs.

Slightly more than 17% of the state's hospital beds are now occupied by COVID patients. But during a busy flu season, and with hospitals continuing with other medical procedures as normal, more than 70% of the total number of hospital beds statewide are occupied.

I've seen individual hospitals and universities predict peaks from mid-January to February, and many testing sites are now overwhelmed in NJ too, so it kind of seems like the plan is very non-zero covid and hope omicron pushes out delta ASAP?

Meanwhile in Ontario, various politicians are calling for separating hospitalized with COVID vs hospitalized for COVID, which, uhh... I mean how many people are testing positive after coming in for surgery? Presumably if it's elective it'll be put off, and if it's not it's a problem either way?

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


eXXon posted:


Meanwhile in Ontario, various politicians are calling for separating hospitalized with COVID vs hospitalized for COVID, which, uhh... I mean how many people are testing positive after coming in for surgery? Presumably if it's elective it'll be out off, and if it's not it's a problem either way?

People come into hospitals for reasons other than elective surgery or COVID and omicron is so widespread now it's definitely something worth looking at because it's going to pop up incidentally more and more often with the number of cases we're seeing.

Like look at it this way. Patient is admitted for some sort of heart problem, which still happens all the time. As part of admission they're tested for COVID and whoops, they pop positive for an asymptotic case or only have very minor symptoms. Do you still consider them a "COVID hospitalization"? Especially if their COVID doesn't get worse? Technically they are by the current measure because they're in hospital and have COVID but if it isn't really a primary reason for their admission should they be counted with the guy coming in because he's got super low O2 from the case of COVID he got weeks ago?

Mr Luxury Yacht fucked around with this message at 07:26 on Dec 31, 2021

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!

Wang Commander posted:

I'm not saying you could have mabs rolling off the Fudgie the Whale line tomorrow, but if mobilization and central planning have become inherently laughable concepts we're hosed for numerous reasons.

Who's laughing? I'm serious. Frozen dessert treats are an entirely frivolous industry and they also have existing refrigeration/freezer capacity. Nationalize them and convert them to produce mRNA vaccines custom-tailored to the most recent variant(s) and also for monoclonal antibodies. The giant vats currently optimized for industrial mass-production of ice cream could be re-engineered for yeast producing monoclonal therapies. Or bioreactors to synthesize and encapsulate mRNA vaccines and their lipid envelopes.

The fleets of refrigerated trucks shipping fudgesicles and Ben and Jerry's pints could instead be moving doses of variant-specific mRNA vaccine.

Judakel
Jul 29, 2004
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!

Skyl3lazer posted:

Why is covid zero an impossible dream, except that we refuse to take the actions that would produce it? Covid isn't magic, we can do things to prevent its spread.

Liberalism has just taught people that any effort to maintain a real quarantine is authoritarian because they've lived under the illusion of freedom for so long. They're terrified of barebones stuff like neighborhood patrols or real lockdowns. You give them the specifics towards a solution that has worked elsewhere and they look at you as if you're the one saying something stupid, when these morons think you can live with covid. These cycles of systems (and people) being overwhelmed just aren't sustainable.

Craptacular!
Jul 9, 2001

Fuck the DH
I personally don't trust the reliability of information posted by the Chinese government, and I can't see anything wrong with that. If they had a trustworthy history, I'd be watching their state news feed instead of the sloppy domestic news I get and the small handful of foreign bureaus, but instead Xinhua and friends are shining examples of why China's published information should be met with skepticism. Not to mention that China is leveraging a lot of surveillance tools that have been part of their society well before the pandemic such as social credit systems.

While definitely not a beacon of liberal thought and press freedom, Singapore is a much more workable model of a country that tried aggressive lockdowns with a culture of civic mindedness and a reliable history with information. And since they've admitted they abandoned Zero Covid in late October we can even see the before and after effects gradually as to how effective their Zero Covid policy was.

speng31b
May 8, 2010

eXXon posted:

I'm trying to decide whether to take heart from the not-so-bad South Africa and London/UK (yet) news, or poo poo my pants at New Jersey reporting 35,000 new cases yesterday (nearly 0.4% of the entire 9.3M population).

All of UK isn't looking so bad yet but hospitalizations in London aren't looking great by the numbers. The hospitalizations in NY/NJ are a bit steeper but I don't think I'd look at what's happening in London and see it as great news quite yet.



e: also i think lower case detections in London/UK lately might not be great news but owing to the massive test shortages

speng31b fucked around with this message at 07:32 on Dec 31, 2021

Wang Commander
Dec 27, 2003

by sebmojo

Fritz the Horse posted:

Who's laughing? I'm serious. Frozen dessert treats are an entirely frivolous industry and they also have existing refrigeration/freezer capacity. Nationalize them and convert them to produce mRNA vaccines custom-tailored to the most recent variant(s) and also for monoclonal antibodies. The giant vats currently optimized for industrial mass-production of ice cream could be re-engineered for yeast producing monoclonal therapies. Or bioreactors to synthesize and encapsulate mRNA vaccines and their lipid envelopes.

The fleets of refrigerated trucks shipping fudgesicles and Ben and Jerry's pints could instead be moving doses of variant-specific mRNA vaccine.

Yeah I think we're on the same page here

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Kalit posted:

Once again, since you seem to be defending this position, do you have an answer to what I just asked you? Specifically:

sorry, im having trouble following what youre getting at. no one is certain to infect each other, but individual results aren't really whats important in public health, yeah? if retail establishments are closed, then retail interactions as a vector for the virus are heavily mitigated. because a ton of americans either willingly choose to go shop, or are forced to interact with shoppers as part of their job, government intervention to close the shops and subsidize the workers unable to work their job will have a dramatic effect on slowing the spread, and thus seems to be a obviously great return on investment to me!

Judakel
Jul 29, 2004
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!

Craptacular! posted:

I personally don't trust the reliability of information posted by the Chinese government, and I can't see anything wrong with that. If they had a trustworthy history, I'd be watching their state news feed instead of the sloppy domestic news I get and the small handful of foreign bureaus, but instead Xinhua and friends are shining examples of why China's published information should be met with skepticism. Not to mention that China is leveraging a lot of surveillance tools that have been part of their society well before the pandemic such as social credit systems.

While definitely not a beacon of liberal thought and press freedom, Singapore is a much more workable model of a country that tried aggressive lockdowns with a culture of civic mindedness and a reliable history with information. And since they've admitted they abandoned Zero Covid in late October we can even see the before and after effects gradually as to how effective their Zero Covid policy was.

That's your opinion, but I don't have a problem with it at this time. Singaporeans live in even more crowded conditions than the Chinese, so I can see why they abandoned their zero covid strategy. As far as physical limits to zero covid, their situation is not really applicable to us.

Wang Commander
Dec 27, 2003

by sebmojo

A big flaming stink posted:

sorry, im having trouble following what youre getting at. no one is certain to infect each other, but individual results aren't really whats important in public health, yeah? if retail establishments are closed, then retail interactions as a vector for the virus are heavily mitigated. because a ton of americans either willingly choose to go shop, or are forced to interact with shoppers as part of their job, government intervention to close the shops and subsidize the workers unable to work their job seems like, frankly, a no brainer to me!

I guess my question is why the focus on retail over entertainment or nightlife or dining?

MikeC
Jul 19, 2004
BITCH ASS NARC

Mr Luxury Yacht posted:

Nursing shortages were a big problem in Canada before the pandemic for sure.

But it 100% has made things much worse especially in ICU/critical care even over the course of just this year. We don't even have the same staffing capability in the hospital I'm at that we did back in this spring, let alone March 2020.

Like here's an example. There were cases of nurses from non-COVID/Critical Care units quitting or retiring early back during the last wave when mandatory redeployment was on the table rather than have to be redeployed to a COVID ICU. It wasn't some mass resignation but it did happen.

No one is making the claim that COVID isn't making the existing situation worse. The issue is the asshat poster that tries to tie anything and everything to COVID to justify their Doom posting. The fact is we keep stripping our healthcare sector to the bare bones to keep a lid on rising costs and it is now finally coming to bite us in the rear end. There was zero acceptance on building excess capacity for times like these.

Ontario, and Canada as a whole, needs to have an adult conversation on how much money we are willing to spend on healthcare and for what kind of healthcare. Right now it is eating a massive whole in Provincial budgets and it gets bigger and bigger every year but no one is willing to pay more taxes of any sort nor are they willing to accept cutbacks in services.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Wang Commander posted:

I guess my question is why the focus on retail over entertainment or nightlife or dining?

oh, if we're talking what to prioritize first and foremost, it becomes a much more complicated question no doubt. in the context of my convo with kalit, i was under the impression the matter at hand was whether or not spending resources on closing retail was a good use of those resources, not if it was optimal

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Craptacular! posted:

I personally don't trust the reliability of information posted by the Chinese government, and I can't see anything wrong with that. If they had a trustworthy history, I'd be watching their state news feed instead of the sloppy domestic news I get and the small handful of foreign bureaus, but instead Xinhua and friends are shining examples of why China's published information should be met with skepticism. Not to mention that China is leveraging a lot of surveillance tools that have been part of their society well before the pandemic such as social credit systems.

Don’t say that here or some psychopath will buy you an avatar.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Craptacular! posted:

I personally don't trust the reliability of information posted by the Chinese government, and I can't see anything wrong with that. If they had a trustworthy history, I'd be watching their state news feed instead of the sloppy domestic news I get and the small handful of foreign bureaus, but instead Xinhua and friends are shining examples of why China's published information should be met with skepticism. Not to mention that China is leveraging a lot of surveillance tools that have been part of their society well before the pandemic such as social credit systems.

the thing to me that pushes me to the "covid zero is legit in china" side of the argument (besides my obvious ideological preference for the PRC) is that you can't really abide with and conceal some "low" amount of covid. The fundamental question is whether or not your measures are keeping r-naught below 1. if it exceeds 1, then poo poo is gonna get worse and worse. Keep it lower than 1, and it will be eliminated.

so i really don't see a space for "china is lying about the covid cases, but only lying slightly" because they can't really lie slightly, they're either holding fast to zero covid or covid is raging through their country like a firestorm, and the latter is simply impossible to conceal.

MikeC
Jul 19, 2004
BITCH ASS NARC

A big flaming stink posted:

the thing to me that pushes me to the "covid zero is legit in china" side of the argument (besides my obvious ideological preference for the PRC) is that you can't really abide with and conceal some "low" amount of covid. The fundamental question is whether or not your measures are keeping r-naught below 1. if it exceeds 1, then poo poo is gonna get worse and worse. Keep it lower than 1, and it will be eliminated.

so i really don't see a space for "china is lying about the covid cases, but only lying slightly" because they can't really lie slightly, they're either holding fast to zero covid or covid is raging through their country like a firestorm, and the latter is simply impossible to conceal.

Posters that doubt China aren't doubting their measures, they are doubting the numbers that come out before their extreme lockdowns put it down to zero again. All of which is beside the point. The argument against COVID-zero is that without sealing your country in an airtight bubble and refusing any and all outside contact for the foreseeable future, someone will track COVID back in or you miss a couple of asymptomatics that then generate new clusters. So you are in an endless game of whack-a-mole where a city of tens of millions can be locked down for weeks at a time with little to now warning and you can't even leave to get food. We talked about this in the China thread. Whether you agree with this strategy is entirely a function of what you consider is reasonable or not.

There are enough people in the West that deem such a system as unreasonable (I among them) and so here we are.

Precambrian Video Games
Aug 19, 2002



Mr Luxury Yacht posted:

People come into hospitals for reasons other than elective surgery or COVID and omicron is so widespread now it's definitely something worth looking at because it's going to pop up incidentally more and more often with the number of cases we're seeing.

Like look at it this way. Patient is admitted for some sort of heart problem, which still happens all the time. As part of admission they're tested for COVID and whoops, they pop positive for an asymptotic case or only have very minor symptoms. Do you still consider them a "COVID hospitalization"? Especially if their COVID doesn't get worse? Technically they are by the current measure because they're in hospital and have COVID but if it isn't really a primary reason for their admission should they be counted with the guy coming in because he's got super low O2 from the case of COVID he got weeks ago?

The list of COVID symptoms is pretty drat long, though. Fine, I'll grant you someone coming in with a broken limb or concussion is not COVID related, but surely there are many ambiguous cases and who should it be up to to make the call then? How common is it for hospitals to enter chart info into a non-shambolic electronic record and then publicize anonymized stats like that? I mean I presume it would be great for epidemiologists but everywhere I've lived, patient access to e-health records was poor to dismal.

Zodium
Jun 19, 2004

MikeC posted:

Whether you agree with this strategy is entirely a function of what you consider is reasonable or not.

There are enough people in the West that deem such a system as unreasonable (I among them) and so here we are.

can you expand on your reasoning here? it sounds like setting an amount of lives you’re willing to sacrifice to avoid a difficult struggle against covid, and I’d be interested to know how, explicitly, you “reasoned” your way to that number.

Suzera
Oct 6, 2021

This spell rocks. It'll pop you right out of that funk.

eXXon posted:

I'm trying to decide whether to take heart from the not-so-bad South Africa and London/UK (yet) news, or poo poo my pants at New Jersey reporting 35,000 new cases yesterday (nearly 0.4% of the entire 9.3M population).
Even if Omicron doesn't kill anyone, just the sheer amount of people bedridden seems like it'll cause some amount of logistical issues in the US next month.

Instead of making GBS threads your pants, make sure you're stocked up on masks, necessities, and have some food to eat for a week or two at all times for the next month or two. Preferably a stock that doesn't rely on electricity just in case. Far more productive than just sitting at your computer being anxious and not making easy preparations to offset the things you fear might happen.

Sax Mortar
Aug 24, 2004
Pfizer + Pfizer + Moderna booster.


Positive for COVID.


Basically just been blowing my nose and coughing occasionally though. Get them shots people. You can still get it, so be careful, but better chance of being not horrendous that way.

Craptacular!
Jul 9, 2001

Fuck the DH

MikeC posted:

Posters that doubt China aren't doubting their measures, they are doubting the numbers that come out before their extreme lockdowns put it down to zero again. All of which is beside the point. The argument against COVID-zero is that without sealing your country in an airtight bubble and refusing any and all outside contact for the foreseeable future, someone will track COVID back in or you miss a couple of asymptomatics that then generate new clusters. So you are in an endless game of whack-a-mole where a city of tens of millions can be locked down for weeks at a time with little to now warning and you can't even leave to get food. We talked about this in the China thread. Whether you agree with this strategy is entirely a function of what you consider is reasonable or not.

There are enough people in the West that deem such a system as unreasonable (I among them) and so here we are.

I'm not saying "Covid-Zero is rear end" but that China isn't the only one who has tried it. Thailand was like a shining example of keeping deaths almost unheard of until Delta hit, and then gave up on it. Singapore gave it up weeks before Omicron. There's a lot of data here that's a bit more useful because, whether or not certain people like it, a country that has already consented to what the Chinese are subject to in the best of times are far more likely to strictly obey the government. So even if China isn't lying, the information isn't particularly useful, because there is no motivation to live under that sort of statism permanently.

Craptacular! fucked around with this message at 08:17 on Dec 31, 2021

Into The Mild
Mar 4, 2003





Nooner posted:

i did a big fart and a bunch of diarrhea sprayed out in my pants does that mean i have covid :ohdear:

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

No It means you're a mod.

It also means you're a paedophile.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Zodium
Jun 19, 2004

zero covid has to work. there is every reason to look to countries that tried and failed to understand the how and why, but it must be with an eye to fixing it, not an eye to justifying surrender to the virus. we do not have the capacity for this.

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MikeC
Jul 19, 2004
BITCH ASS NARC

eXXon posted:

The list of COVID symptoms is pretty drat long, though. Fine, I'll grant you someone coming in with a broken limb or concussion is not COVID related, but surely there are many ambiguous cases and who should it be up to to make the call then? How common is it for hospitals to enter chart info into a non-shambolic electronic record and then publicize anonymized stats like that? I mean I presume it would be great for epidemiologists but everywhere I've lived, patient access to e-health records was poor to dismal.

Assume a Tau variant arises, infects 100% of the population but causes 0 symptoms in every person. Each and every single hospitalization will now be a COVID case. Do we have a COVID crisis in this hypothetical world? This is why it is critical to start teasing apart the data. South Africa is reporting 60% of their COVID numbers are incidental, possibly higher in the UK. See my previous posts for the sources.

At what point are we just lumping these cases in just to inflate the COVID case and hospitalization counts so people can continue to panic? It is possible to work out the data but people have to do the work.

https://www.journalofhospitalmedicine.com/jhospmed/article/242998/hospital-medicine/incidentally-detected-sars-cov-2-among-hospitalized

They were looking at this stuff even during Delta. Now with an incidental rate of 12%, there was no justifiable way to downplay what was happening. If hospitals were being flooded, it was because of COVID and restrictions are justifiable. But if we start seeing 60% or 80% as suggested by recent UK numbers, it's time to reevaluate how we view what is or is not a COVID case and what an appropriate set of restrictions would be - assuming you are not chasing COVID zero.


Zodium posted:

can you expand on your reasoning here? it sounds like setting an amount of lives you’re willing to sacrifice to avoid a difficult struggle against covid, and I’d be interested to know how, explicitly, you “reasoned” your way to that number.

I have no magic acceptable number. Society every single day chooses to tolerate a certain amount of preventable deaths or negative health outcomes. We can stop any and all excess mortality from plane crashes if we simply ban air travel across the globe. We can stop all drunk driving deaths by banning alcohol (and any number of other poor health outcomes). We can stop all drug overdose deaths if we enact a round-the-clock neighborhood watch that tests everyone's piss on a daily basis. We can stop any and all future influenza deaths (or at least curb it close to zero when it jumps from animals to humans) if we enact a global health lockdown for 2 weeks the moment a new flu strain comes around. But we don't. We have come to tolerate these things as a part of life.

When March 2020 rolled around and Italians hospitals were overflowing with patients and we had no vaccines, no idea of what the real kill rate was, I was totally onboard with almost any and all public health measures. My mind has change recently given that to me at least, COVID zero is an impossibility and the efficacy of vaccines is proven
If COVID mortality sinks to the point where is just like the flu which harvests a certain number of human beings every year to an early grave, then so be it.

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