COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

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Suzera: Oct 6, 2021; This spell rocks. It'll pop you right out of that funk.

Also to be clear, my drawn conclusion is not that this article is saying vaccines do nothing. I think it's more likely something unusual happened with the data or it's perhaps a technical definitional thing of detected viral infections vs disease.

At least, looking at the current case numbers, I hope it's not the case that anything like 1% of vaccinated people with detected infections die.

# ? Jan 9, 2022 06:44

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# ? May 25, 2024 23:41

Mendrian: Jan 6, 2013

LeeMajors posted:

Or we should probably also stop punishing people for using sick leave which is part of their motherfucking compensation package.

We get paperwork for too many "occurrences" (7 in a rolling 12mo period) at a healthcare profession.

I got my first warning in 12 years in EMS a few months ago because, surprise, between daycare closures, my daughter getting covid, my two covid scares + tests, and my dog dying suddenly I hit 7. I've never had more than like 1 or 2.

Now, I'm at home until next Wednesday with my own covid isolation period so I can't wait to get another one when I get back because I'm pretty sure two haven't dropped off my roll.

The first year of the pandemic we were given an additional 7 days (two pay periods, 12hr shifts) of leave for isolation in the first year, but that ended 1/1/21 and they've done nothing to modify our policies in the subsequent year with multiple more severe peaks.

This is huge too.

Like I sort of get it? We're Americans. So we're already working our bones to dust. When co-workers call and nobody wants to or can't replace them, we can either adjust the day's expectations or we can have one person do the work of two people. So we do the latter.

In a world where a small cafe has two callouts and one person is left to do the work of three people, it should be reasonable to either shut down for a while or put up a little sign that says, "I'm working alone today, it is what it is", but you bet your rear end the former would never happen and the latter would be deeply frowned upon. And that's for a cafe, where almost nothing is at stake.

# ? Jan 9, 2022 07:15

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Suzera posted:

That seems plausible, but I don't think it would be a 10 fold difference by itself at this point given that the delta wave started after most of the vaxes or I would have put that up speculatively as well.

E: Trying to find some more recent age demo graphs for who is vaxed in case it's like 80% people over 60 somehow, but might have to just dig out text data. Some older ones from ~May 2021 seem to indicate it's not that skewed though.

It's absolutely that substantial of a difference though. an unvaccinated 20 year old has like a vanishingly low (like .001%) chance of dying from covid unvaccinated, while a vaccinated 80 year old still has a substantial chance of dying of covid.

# ? Jan 9, 2022 07:17

Suzera: Oct 6, 2021; This spell rocks. It'll pop you right out of that funk.

Herstory Begins Now posted:

It's absolutely that substantial of a difference though. an unvaccinated 20 year old has like a vanishingly low (like .001%) chance of dying from covid unvaccinated, while a vaccinated 80 year old still has a substantial chance of dying of covid.

I mean for the whole of all demographics averaged I would not expect a 10 fold difference from the expectation. Presumably this article is not about 1.2m 80 year olds only. The general CFR for a place like the UK is 1% overall, vax unvax infected or not and all ages and including some prevax time. Vax only deaths per case across all demos should be under 1%, so I would guess with some optimism that there are more than 2000 vaccinated breakthrough cases in this group by the usual metrics of cases or there's something else going on here other than vaccines do nothing or actually double digit percents of infected people die from covid.

Suzera fucked around with this message at 07:28 on Jan 9, 2022

# ? Jan 9, 2022 07:18

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

what article are you referring to? I'm not clear what expected value you're even referring to at this point?

# ? Jan 9, 2022 07:25

Suzera: Oct 6, 2021; This spell rocks. It'll pop you right out of that funk.

Herstory Begins Now posted:

what article are you referring to? I'm not clear what expected value you're even referring to at this point?

The one linked on the last page here https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7101a4.htm

I would expect somewhere around .1% cfr for vaccines average across all demos, not 1% (which is approximately "vaccines do nothing").

# ? Jan 9, 2022 07:29

Stickman: Feb 1, 2004

So that CDC study was designed to evaluate risk factors associated with severe disease among vaccinated individuals, not to assess vaccine effectiveness. There's no comparison with a similar unvaccinated population and there's no adjustment of rates for sample demographics, because those aren't critical for the actual analysis the authors were doing. Without that (and preferably some breakdowns by variant and time since vaccination), the raw rates that everyone keeps reporting from the study aren't really interpretable beyond "yeah, looks like it's probably a decent amount less than it would be in a similar unvaxxed population".

It's definitely not hard scientific evidence for vaccine effectiveness - it's just another example of Walensky* and the media co-opting an MMR study with appropriately small numbers and pretending it's saying something that it really isn't. If they had put in the legwork actually address VE I'm sure it would have been pretty good, but they didn't.

* Remember her claiming two studies showed that Delta wasn't any more severe than Alpha in children when the conclusions of the studies literally stated "we can't determine relative severity from this study"?

Stickman fucked around with this message at 07:37 on Jan 9, 2022

# ? Jan 9, 2022 07:33

NoDamage: Dec 2, 2000

Good Soldier Svejk posted:

Maybe psyched is a hyperbolic statement sure but it still seems pretty clear to me that she could have said "and healthy people are very unlikely to die"

Yet she chose to deliberately phrase it as (and forgive the quotations for a paraphrase I am on my phone but I believe this is close) "most people who are dying are unwell"

There is a reason behind that difference in phrasing especially since media messaging will tell you to go towards the positive statement whenever you can.

Maybe she hosed up and it was a completely unintentional flub. That's the most charitable read I can really give it though. I still contend that the "unwell" part is meant to otherize the victims because who thinks of themselves as "unwell" rather than healthy?

Maybe there's a more banal psychology at play, that more people think of themselves as healthy or unwell depending on context or whatever, I don't know... But again, in her place, on that platform, the CDC having done what it has done, I am not inclined to offer any one part of that apparatus the benefit of the doubt until any part of it shows me that sustaining human life is the ultimate goal and not sustaining commerce.

Until then I hope you can forgive that myself and others are going to assume the worst because... Well look at the Delta airlines CEO getting to call the shots and make terrible guidance that the CDC went out and echoed in an even worse way.

I agree that her response could have been phrased more clearly but I think you're reading more into her statement than is actually there based on preconceived assumptions about her underlying motivations. After all, the context of her statement could have been clarified at any time by reading the underlying study to understand exactly what she was referring to. Instead we ended up with two pages worth of unnecessary outrage posts because nobody bothered to check, which is in my opinion rather unfortunate.

I mostly just wish people would do a bit more investigation of headlines/tweets before posting them here so people don't end up misled. (And some questionable stuff has been getting posted lately.)

# ? Jan 9, 2022 07:37

freebooter: Jul 7, 2009

Gio posted:

Also please quote one post where someone said �vaccines are useless.� Find one.

St. Dogbert posted:

My fianc�e has been worried about her 10-year-old half-sister for months, and was so relieved and happy to see that she got her first vaccine dose this morning.

Figures it would happen on the day the vaccines become completely worthless.

# ? Jan 9, 2022 07:39

NoDamage: Dec 2, 2000

Suzera posted:

It's not a prevention if the prevention mechanism doesn't take place. You have to be infected for a vaccine to be doing work (and thus be the thing potentially preventing something). Merely existing and not being infected is not enough to say the vaccine worked in a case.

That's not quite right as the vaccines had been quite effective at preventing infection up until Omicron hit.

quote:

Also 36/2246 or about 1.5% of vaccinated infections dying seems really, really bad actually compared to the .1% that has been expected for that ratio so I'm wondering what's going on here.

It's important to keep in mind that is 1.5% of breakthrough infections and thus the denominator does not include the people that were exposed but did not become infected (due to the protective effect of the vaccine), or people that did become infected but were asymptomatic and therefore did not seek testing (again due to the protective effect of the vaccine).

# ? Jan 9, 2022 07:41

Stickman: Feb 1, 2004

NoDamage posted:

That's not quite right as the vaccines had been quite effective at preventing infection up until Omicron hit.

Well, except for the part where protection against infection waned significantly after 4-5 months.

# ? Jan 9, 2022 07:47

Rust Martialis: May 8, 2007; At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

NoDamage posted:

I agree that her response could have been phrased more clearly but I think you're reading more into her statement than is actually there based on preconceived assumptions about her underlying motivations. After all, the context of her statement could have been clarified at any time by reading the underlying study to understand exactly what she was referring to. Instead we ended up with two pages worth of unnecessary outrage posts because nobody bothered to check, which is in my opinion rather unfortunate.

I mostly just wish people would do a bit more investigation of headlines/tweets before posting them here so people don't end up misled. (And some questionable stuff has been getting posted lately.)

Where the outrage posting is the whole point, source checking is counterproductive.

D&D is supposed to be "better" on validating your sources but really once one poster declares how evil the person is for saying such *awful* things, the rest just pile on - eventually someone actually checks the source and points out their hot take, and sometimes the OP gets a sixer for it.

# ? Jan 9, 2022 07:52

NoDamage: Dec 2, 2000

Stickman posted:

Well, except for the part where protection against infection waned significantly after 4-5 months.

Fair, but nonetheless having only 2246 reported breakthroughs across a population of 1.2M over a period of 11 months is quite an impressive result, and goes to show what a huge delta in risk there is between the vaxxed and unvaxxed.

# ? Jan 9, 2022 07:57

Stickman: Feb 1, 2004

Rust Martialis posted:

Where the outrage posting is the whole point, source checking is counterproductive.

D&D is supposed to be "better" on validating your sources but really once one poster declares how evil the person is for saying such *awful* things, the rest just pile on - eventually someone actually checks the source and points out their hot take, and sometimes the OP gets a sixer for it.

The context doesn't make the statement better. I understand what she was trying to say, but the delivery was atrocious. And again, she's absolutely torturing the underlying study to make a questionable statement that it wasn't actually designed to produce solid evidence for.

# ? Jan 9, 2022 07:57

Stickman: Feb 1, 2004

NoDamage posted:

Fair, but nonetheless having only 2246 reported breakthroughs across a population of 1.2M over a period of 11 months is quite an impressive result, and goes to show what a huge delta in risk there is between the vaxxed and unvaxxed.

The study is definitely not designed to comprehensively capture breakthrough infections or assess effectiveness. The used a database that tracked COVID-19 inpatient and outpatient encounters in 495 hospital facilities, which means that any breakthroughs tested outside of those specific facilities would not be captured (ie, testing sites, smaller clinics, etc). The 1.2M likely comes from the # of people vaccinated at those facilities (it's not 100% from the methodology), but there's no guarantee that they would also test at a covered facility. They also don't say how vax and patient records were matched within the database, but having worked with this sort of data before I'm pretty confident there's going to some misses for cases within the (potentially both from people who were vaxxed outside of the system or even state and from mismatched identifiers).

Beyond that, you also need to consider:
- The at-risk-while vaccinated period of the population (most of the population was only vaccinated for a small portion of those 11 months.
- The community transmission rates while people were vaccijnated and at-risk (and in their specific communities).
- Demographics.

Our breakthrough tracking is decentralized, incomplete, and slipshod. Studies need to be very, very careful if they want to ensure comprehensive coverage. This study is not because it was not attempting to estimate breakthrough rates. It was simply looking at risk factors for severe disease within a population of breakthrough cases, which requires much less stringent sampling methodology.

Stickman fucked around with this message at 08:22 on Jan 9, 2022

# ? Jan 9, 2022 08:18

Suzera: Oct 6, 2021; This spell rocks. It'll pop you right out of that funk.

NoDamage posted:

That's not quite right as the vaccines had been quite effective at preventing infection up until Omicron hit.

Looking at the methodology I'm not entirely convinced from this that there's a real 90% infection reduction since I don't see them testing on a regular schedule which might mean they're relying on participants to initiate testing and only capture more severe than completely asymptomatic cases. But I'll at least admit based on this that vaccines could cause something like a 90% reduction in reported cases, and I'd guess usually the ones that would be least severe anyway are the ones cut, which is good enough for the topic and would potentially explain the gap I'm wondering about.

quote:

It's important to keep in mind that is 1.5% of breakthrough infections and thus the denominator does not include the people that were exposed but did not become infected (due to the protective effect of the vaccine), or people that did become infected but were asymptomatic and therefore did not seek testing (again due to the protective effect of the vaccine).

Cases are not merely exposures so I don't think that's a relevant contention by itself. However, looking at some charts casually I'll also still pre-emptively concede that ~2k reported breakthrough cases before October 2021 given the above admission seems at least plausible for a fully vaccinated ~1/300th of the united states population.

E: Trying to track down the known total population breakthrough count as of October but I'm not finding it readily if it exists.

Suzera fucked around with this message at 09:21 on Jan 9, 2022

# ? Jan 9, 2022 09:12

A big flaming stink: Apr 26, 2010

https://twitter.com/CalNurses/status/1479905722712395778?t=nxktrYh9YQelT_HL0FosPQ&s=19

Biased source, obviously, but this kind of seems blatantly insane? Seems like an incredibly ill omen for the health of Cali's hospital systems!

e: another thing I have always wondered is how exactly are they defining asymptomatic? Is there a specific temperature threshold? Just a smell test?

A big flaming stink fucked around with this message at 09:40 on Jan 9, 2022

# ? Jan 9, 2022 09:35

Suzera: Oct 6, 2021; This spell rocks. It'll pop you right out of that funk.

Found the breakthrough information on CDC's site. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status
https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-COVID-19-Cases-or-Deaths-by-Age-Group-and/3rge-nu2a

Looking at the tables, starting around July the case ratio dips from ~8-10x more unvax general cases to ~3-6x more unvax cases depending on age group.

So assuming the CDC information here is at least ok the KPSC study might not be too far off on infection reduction for the timeframe of its participants. Which is up to the start of Delta dominating in the US.

KPSC posted:

Participants Adult KPSC members with a SARS-CoV-2 positive test sent for whole genome sequencing or a negative test from 1 March 2021 to 27 July 2021.

Hypothetically at least, they'd presumably find something closer to 60-80% reduction of reported cases during the Delta-dominant timeframe of July to November. And even less now during Omicron.

I'll still accept for now this kind of thing as a good enough explanation for why there might be such a huge gap in my expectations for the initial CDC study we were discussing though.

Suzera fucked around with this message at 09:52 on Jan 9, 2022

# ? Jan 9, 2022 09:42

Rust Martialis: May 8, 2007; At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

Yeah, looks like they're expecting bad poo poo in the next few weeks.

"Due to the critical staffing shortages currently being experienced across the health care continuum because of the rise in the Omicron variant, effective January 8, 2022 through February 1, 2022, CDPH is temporarily adjusting the return-to-work criteria. During this time, this guidance will supersede the tables below.

During this time, HCPs who have tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and are asymptomatic may return to work immediately without isolation and without testing, and HCPs who have been exposed and are asymptomatic may return to work immediately without quarantine and without testing. These HCPs must wear an N95 respirator for source control. Facilities implementing this change must have made every attempt to bring in additional registry or contract staff and must have considered modifications to non-essential procedures."

Sounds bad. Not sure I'd call this decision "insane" if they're at this point to make sure staffing levels don't collapse for the next 3-4 weeks.

Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 09:48 on Jan 9, 2022

# ? Jan 9, 2022 09:43

Thorn Wishes Talon: Oct 18, 2014; by Fluffdaddy

Sacrificing the long-term to be able to meet demand in the short-term is probably unwise. How are they going to deal with it when even more HCWs get sick because their coworkers are coming back to work earlier than it is safe for them to do so?

# ? Jan 9, 2022 09:50

crepeface: Nov 5, 2004; r*p*f*c*

WHO says Delta COVID-19 strain is still dominant globally and Omicron is not mild

quote:

While the infectious Omicron variant of COVID-19 appears to produce a less severe disease than the globally dominant Delta strain, it should not be categorised as "mild", World Health Organization officials have said.

"Just like previous variants, Omicron is hospitalising people and it's killing people," said WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus at a Thursday media briefing from WHO headquarters in Geneva.

"In fact, the tsunami of cases is so huge and quick that it is overwhelming health systems around the world."

a bit late on that, we've been lettin' 'er RIP and boy does it look poo poo for australia. vic/nsw looks like the dropped 5-6k tests, but i gotta assume that's because our testing is hosed.

australia's tiny population being anywhere comparable is insane

oh yeah there's this too: NSW and Queensland allow close contacts of Covid cases to work as states face food shortages

quote:

The previous requirement for Covid positive people and their close household contacts to isolate have caused staff shortages resulting in empty supermarket shelves.

The NSW government said workers in the agriculture, food logistics, transport and manufacturing sectors who had been furloughed as close contacts would be permitted to leave isolation if their employer determined their absence posed �a high risk of disruption to the delivery of critical services or activities�.

this is after they already redefined close contacts to within a home-like environment with 4+ hours contact so it's not like one guy at the grocery store getting a positive result and making his workmates isolate, they're trying to squeeze every worker they can to get out there

also, i've been keeping an eye on the WA premier's twitter/facebook and every time he posts a covid update, more people are asking him to delay the feb 5 border opening and less are screaming about opening up faster.

https://twitter.com/MarkMcGowanMP/status/1480016392170602499?s=20

mod edit: timg for easier readability

Somebody fucked around with this message at 09:54 on Jan 9, 2022

# ? Jan 9, 2022 09:52

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

I've gone mad with power and edited your post to timg stuff, the second chart was huge.

Carry on.

# ? Jan 9, 2022 09:56

crepeface: Nov 5, 2004; r*p*f*c*

oh sorry, i always forget about sizing for desktop

# ? Jan 9, 2022 09:58

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

crepeface posted:

oh sorry, i always forget about sizing for desktop

if you forget to [timg] again I'm queuing a ban+30

this is a joke.

# ? Jan 9, 2022 10:01

Rust Martialis: May 8, 2007; At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

Sacrificing the long-term to be able to meet demand in the short-term is probably unwise. How are they going to deal with it when even more HCWs get sick because their coworkers are coming back to work earlier than it is safe for them to do so?

I dunno, this would seem to be getting close to scraping the bottom of the barrel. The last step would presumably be *symptomatic* caregivers.

Meanwhile cases here in DK dropped 50% in two days with the idiots who partied NYE either tested positive or not by Jan 5. Hoping it keeps dropping. They tested like 7% of the population yesterday. The next problem is 6-7 days after testing positive is when you start showing up at the hospital.

Then 1 day later you go to ICU. :/

ed: Ok ok i included a [timg] jeez

Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 10:03 on Jan 9, 2022

# ? Jan 9, 2022 10:01

freebooter: Jul 7, 2009

Rust Martialis posted:

I dunno, this would seem to be getting close to scraping the bottom of the barrel. The last step would presumably be *symptomatic* caregivers.

IIRC correctly Belgium did this in the 20/21 winter wave which is definitely a measure of how bad things are but not "insane" as a health decision because it's far preferable to having your hospitals turn into unstaffed ghost towns at the peak of deeply sick people needing care

# ? Jan 9, 2022 10:08

Suzera: Oct 6, 2021; This spell rocks. It'll pop you right out of that funk.

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

Sacrificing the long-term to be able to meet demand in the short-term is probably unwise. How are they going to deal with it when even more HCWs get sick because their coworkers are coming back to work earlier than it is safe for them to do so?

Even with this it seems unlikely there will be enough in the short term since hospitalizations are basically locked in to keep increasing at a similar exponent for at least a couple weeks since cases also haven't been stopping as of the last couple weeks.

Rust Martialis posted:

I dunno, this would seem to be getting close to scraping the bottom of the barrel. The last step would presumably be *symptomatic* caregivers.

I'm still expecting this to be attempted in the next couple of weeks. At minimum it's going to be seriously floated or trial ballooned in big media.

Like the CDC recommends stuff about this is dark funny but also it's hard to say if it would be better not to enact these policies at this exact juncture. The time to act to have a chance at making this not a catastrophe was in early December. There's more or less only watching for the immediate future barring some kind of martial law thing.

Suzera fucked around with this message at 10:12 on Jan 9, 2022

# ? Jan 9, 2022 10:08

A big flaming stink: Apr 26, 2010

Suzera posted:

I'm still expecting this to be attempted in the next couple of weeks. At minimum it's going to be seriously floated or trial ballooned in big media.

Like the CDC recommends stuff about this is dark funny but also it's hard to say if it would be better not to enact these policies at this exact juncture. The time to act to have a chance at making this not a catastrophe was in early December. There's more or less only watching for the immediate future barring some kind of martial law thing.

there are unique costs to telling healthcare workers that they are considered expendable, and those costs might be irreparable

Basically:

https://twitter.com/kittynouveau/status/1480097742953361413

A big flaming stink fucked around with this message at 10:15 on Jan 9, 2022

# ? Jan 9, 2022 10:12

Waltzing Along: Jun 14, 2008; There's only one
Human race
Many faces
Everybody belongs here

A big flaming stink posted:

https://twitter.com/CalNurses/status/1479905722712395778?t=nxktrYh9YQelT_HL0FosPQ&s=19

Biased source, obviously, but this kind of seems blatantly insane? Seems like an incredibly ill omen for the health of Cali's hospital systems!

e: another thing I have always wondered is how exactly are they defining asymptomatic? Is there a specific temperature threshold? Just a smell test?

My gf just told me about this and is freaking out. She works in a healthcare field. This is utter insanity.

# ? Jan 9, 2022 10:21

UCS Hellmaker: Mar 29, 2008; Toilet Rascal

A big flaming stink posted:

there are unique costs to telling healthcare workers that they are considered expendable, and those costs might be irreparable

Basically:

https://twitter.com/kittynouveau/status/1480097742953361413

Its called walkouts and then people lighting their license's on fire because the state says they are being mandated against their will to work and administration is threatening to report them and blackball them. Then the state enacts emergancy powers and has students working and that goes wonderfully and then those people quit because jesus christ

# ? Jan 9, 2022 10:24

Suzera: Oct 6, 2021; This spell rocks. It'll pop you right out of that funk.

A big flaming stink posted:

there are unique costs to telling healthcare workers that they are considered expendable, and those costs might be irreparable

This is a large part why it is hard to tell. The counterbalance to that is if we hit stuff like the no-vax-no-medical care estimates of wildtype IFR of 10% but assume nobody vaccinated dies we're looking at something like 3-6% of millions of currently active cases plus millions more in the near future resulting in death. Which could also be extremely bad both in the near and long term and not really repairable either.

E: I definitely wouldn't fault HCW for just saying no, but we're in fairly uncharted potentially unprecedentedly in this pandemic bad territory at the moment.

Suzera fucked around with this message at 10:35 on Jan 9, 2022

# ? Jan 9, 2022 10:26

Rust Martialis: May 8, 2007; At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

Suzera posted:

Even with this it seems unlikely there will be enough in the short term since hospitalizations are basically locked in to keep increasing at a similar exponent for at least a couple weeks since cases also haven't been stopping as of the last couple weeks.

The pattern in DK has been the last 2 weeks case explosion seems to me to be primarily driven by Christmas Eve/Day gatherings and NYE festivities.

Danes celebrate and open gifts on the 24th - and 6 days later, huge spike in cases. Then December 31 resulted in a second spike in cases several days later.

Since the second spike three days ago, daily cases dropped by half.

Hospitalization in DK is roughly on average a week after diagnosis. Source in my daily stats post, btw.

I tried looking for daily versus 7-day rolling cases in CA.US to see if there's a similar two-hump surge because the 7- day blurs it out. No luck. Anyone got a daily cases table for the last few weeks in CA? If you're not testing hard the data will suck more.

[timg][/timg]

# ? Jan 9, 2022 10:37

Discendo Vox: Mar 21, 2013; We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Just for context on the WHO story crepeface links above (though it seems pretty good- I can't tell if they had their own reporter present or if they scrambled an AP release), here's the press conference it's based on:
https://www.who.int/multi-media/details/who-press-conference-on-coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)---6-january-2022

I know nothing about the current dynamic at WHO or what Ghebreyesus's reputation is. Based on the transcript, it looks like they're worried that people will think that because omicron is "mild", they will rationalize not getting vaccinated.

# ? Jan 9, 2022 10:44

crepeface: Nov 5, 2004; r*p*f*c*

Discendo Vox posted:

Just for context on the WHO story crepeface links above (though it seems pretty good- I can't tell if they had their own reporter present or if they scrambled an AP release), here's the press conference it's based on:
https://www.who.int/multi-media/details/who-press-conference-on-coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)---6-january-2022

I know nothing about the current dynamic at WHO or what Ghebreyesus's reputation is. Based on the transcript, it looks like they're worried that people will think that because omicron is "mild", they will rationalize not getting vaccinated.

sounds like it's about everything to me. "don't stop vaccinating, masks, distancing, ventilation etc just because it's less severe, hospitals are getting zerg rushed right now"

quote:

While omicron does appear to be less severe compared to delta, especially in those vaccinated, it does not mean it should be categorised as mild. Just like previous variants omicron is hospitalising people and it's killing people. In fact the tsunami of cases is so huge and quick that it is overwhelming health systems around the world.

Hospitals are becoming overcrowded and understaffed, which further results in preventable deaths from not only COVID-19 but other diseases and injuries where patients cannot receive timely care.

First-generation vaccines may not stop all infections and transmission but they remain highly effective in reducing hospitalisation and death from this virus.

00:06:43

So as well as vaccination, public health and social measures including the wearing of well-fitting masks, distancing, avoiding crowds and improving and investing in ventilation are important for limiting transmission.

# ? Jan 9, 2022 11:03

Mr Cuddles: Jan 29, 2010; Do not believe in anything simply because you have heard it. Do not believe in anything simply because it is spoken and rumored by many. Do not believe in anything because it is found written in your religious books. Do not believe in anything merely on the authority of your teachers and elders.

How are u posted:

I think it's worth keeping in mind that anger is actually literally addictive to the human brain, and, while the world is a gently caress right now and things suck everywhere, it's not healthy or good to stay hyped-up on anger and outrage 24/7. It's not good for any of us, it's quite bad for mental health.

It's worth quoting this from a few pages ago because it sums up my situation perfectly. It's not healthy for me to read covid or left twitter more than once a week because it makes me angry, I have nowhere to direct that anger, and that makes me anxious.

# ? Jan 9, 2022 11:16

Pingui: Jun 4, 2006; WTF?

Rust Martialis posted:

The pattern in DK has been the last 2 weeks case explosion seems to me to be primarily driven by Christmas Eve/Day gatherings and NYE festivities.

Danes celebrate and open gifts on the 24th - and 6 days later, huge spike in cases. Then December 31 resulted in a second spike in cases several days later.

Since the second spike three days ago, daily cases dropped by half.

Hospitalization in DK is roughly on average a week after diagnosis. Source in my daily stats post, btw.
(..)

I've mentioned this to you before, but you are looking at day of reporting, rather than day of test and even so you have to account for testing activity and/or cohort changing substantially between days (Tuesdays are typically highest, Saturdays and Sundays lowest). The last high point was 6 days ago.

The data for cases is on the dashboard under: "Bekr�ftede tilf�lde opgjort p� pr�vetagningsdato".

Hospitalizations and deaths are also not registered in real-time, but the actual "date of" can be similarly found under "Nye indl�ggelser pr. dag (hele landet)" and "Nationale d�dsfald pr. dag (hele landet)", respectively.

# ? Jan 9, 2022 13:19

Inferior Third Season: Jan 15, 2005

I'd also be hesitant to celebrate a day or two of lower case counts in Denmark yet. Schools just opened this week, and omicron seems to especially enjoy spreading around in kids and teenagers.

# ? Jan 9, 2022 14:00

Pingui: Jun 4, 2006; WTF?

Inferior Third Season posted:

I'd also be hesitant to celebrate a day or two of lower case counts in Denmark yet. Schools just opened this week, and omicron seems to especially enjoy spreading around in kids and teenagers.

Yeah, it got pretty dire before schools closed last year, reaching 2.5% of school children infected per week. Last I heard (23 December) teachers are still barred from wearing masks, so I honestly don't expect schools to stay open for more than a couple of weeks before involuntarily shuttering again. I guess we will see if the strategy of pissing our pants to stay warm will work :P

Also we had 19,248 PCR confirmed cases registered today, so either way the drop was an illusion.

# ? Jan 9, 2022 14:47

Rust Martialis: May 8, 2007; At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

Inferior Third Season posted:

I'd also be hesitant to celebrate a day or two of lower case counts in Denmark yet. Schools just opened this week, and omicron seems to especially enjoy spreading around in kids and teenagers.

But it doesn't make them very seriously ill, so there's a tradeoff.

# ? Jan 9, 2022 14:48

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# ? May 25, 2024 23:41

Rust Martialis: May 8, 2007; At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

Pingui posted:

I've mentioned this to you before, but you are looking at day of reporting, rather than day of test and even so you have to account for testing activity and/or cohort changing substantially between days (Tuesdays are typically highest, Saturdays and Sundays lowest). The last high point was 6 days ago.

The data for cases is on the dashboard under: "Bekr�ftede tilf�lde opgjort p� pr�vetagningsdato".

Hospitalizations and deaths are also not registered in real-time, but the actual "date of" can be similarly found under "Nye indl�ggelser pr. dag (hele landet)" and "Nationale d�dsfald pr. dag (hele landet)", respectively.

The problem is the data's not tabulated and it sucks reading it off a chart

Ugh

Cases by actual day tested:

pre:

Jan 08  6,791 cases
Jan 07 14,389
Jan 06 15,413
Jan 05 17,576
Jan 04 23, 697
Jan 03 25,618
Jan 02 19,905
Jan 01  8,630
Dec 31  9,727
Dec 30 19,226
Dec 29 17,244
Dec 28 21,955
Dec 27 22,616
Dec 26 10,966
Dec 25  7,853
Dec 24  7,054

Jesus, look at the nice case spikes. Okay, Juleaften hit starting 2 days after, maybe 3. Nyt�rsaften was also a fat spike starting 2 days after the 31.

Just looked at the data and its actually entirely possible the "drops" were people just not getting tested on the 24/25th or 31/1.

Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 17:56 on Jan 9, 2022

# ? Jan 9, 2022 15:05

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

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