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Which horse film is your favorite?
This poll is closed.
Black Beauty 2 1.06%
A Talking Pony!?! 4 2.13%
Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor 117 62.23%
War Horse 11 5.85%
Mr. Hands 54 28.72%
Total: 188 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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Levitate
Sep 30, 2005

randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENIÈRE IN ME

brugroffil posted:

Better almost two years late than never, I suppose

https://twitter.com/bylenasun/statu...ingawful.com%2F

I feel like the CDC has been dipshits here and busy handwringing over "but what if some people don't' wear them properly and it gives them a false sense of security and they take more risks!" meanwhile people are still rocking bandanas and buffs depending on where you are.

So concerned over bullshit that is by far the lesser evil

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CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug
Some of the pop up locations may be misleading people with bad/false tests:

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1480721701306613761?s=20

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

CommieGIR posted:

Some of the pop up locations may be misleading people with bad/false tests:

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1480721701306613761?s=20

Of course there are grifters taking advantage of people desperately seeking Covid tests. JFC

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

Yeah, I got a test at a popup site a few weeks ago that was later shut down by the city. Fortunately, the lab they were using had a history of false positives, rather than negatives, which I guess if you're gonna scam is better for public health.

(It wasn't one of that chain's testing site; it had a name like S. Chicago Medical.)

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Dick Trauma posted:

Just like my last workplace I have everyone set up with a laptop and VPN. Still waiting to hear if I'll be allowed to bail out.

Never ask permission. Only ask forgiveness.

Wang Commander
Dec 27, 2003

by sebmojo
Late but the YouTube mask review phenomenon came about because the US market was flooded with Korean and Chinese masks of unfamiliar configuration and quality, as well as gimmick masks. Everyone knows the best protection is full face P100 respirator or tight fitting mask style PAPR, with the next best being other NIOSH options, but during the early pandemic shortages or for aesthetic reasons (to keep their job) people have been forced to adopt these imports, which include the only colorful or decorated masks with actual filtration.

Additionally, Korea had masks developed for children years and years before US options existed in child sizes (N95 being industrial PPE meant there was none for children, while KF94 is a population level standard)

Wang Commander
Dec 27, 2003

by sebmojo
You know I live in a city that can't manage to run a bus more than twice a day outside downtown and we still manage to have ~a dozen free PCR sites OUTDOORS with same day results. Wave or no wave there's no excuse for anywhere urbanized not having this.

DethisaGift
Jan 10, 2022

by Pragmatica

Wang Commander posted:

You know I live in a city that can't manage to run a bus more than twice a day outside downtown and we still manage to have ~a dozen free PCR sites OUTDOORS with same day results. Wave or no wave there's no excuse for anywhere urbanized not having this.

The problem is throughput.

Miami has a bunch of tents that take 5-7 days to turn around and are probably running fake COVID tests just like the cubans in Hialeah run fake medicare scams all day long.

The city designated testing center had 7 hour long lines. Everyone kept going to the same ones, and there were only 5 overall.

And Miami is a car based city, how the gently caress do you test the 20 million people in New York without infected folks infecting other on public transport with how infectious omicron is?

gohuskies
Oct 23, 2010

I spend a lot of time making posts to justify why I'm not a self centered shithead that just wants to act like COVID isn't a thing.

Sharks Eat Bear posted:

- symptom frequency correlates with covid severity (more severe = more long term symptoms). Insofar as vaccination reduces disease severity among infected, this makes me think vaccination would reduce risk of LC symptoms as well but that’s just my speculation

This preprint study believes that vaccination reduces the incidence of Long Covid https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.05.22268800v1

quote:

Results: Of 951 previously infected individuals who filled the survey 637(67%) were vaccinated. The most commonly reported symptoms were; fatigue (22%), headache (20%), weakness (13%), and persistent muscle pain (10%). After adjusting for follow-up time and baseline symptoms, fully vaccinated (2 or more doses) individuals were less likely than unvaccinated individuals to report any of these symptoms by 64%, 54%, 57%, and 68% respectively, (Risk ratios 0.36, 0.46, 0.43, 0.32, p<0.04 in the listed sequence).

Conclusions: Vaccination with at least two doses of COVID-19 vaccine was associated with a substantial decrease in reporting the most common post-acute COVID19 symptoms. Our results suggest that, in addition to reducing the risk of acute illness, COVID-19 vaccination may have a protective effect against long COVID.


Time frame was for people who initially got sick March 2020-June 2021, so mostly pre-Delta and very pre-Omicron, but Omicron is so new at this point anyways that prognosticating about Long COVID from it is pretty meaningless. Maybe Omicron means more Long COVID because vaccines stop LC and Omicron does well versus vaccines, maybe Omicron means less LC because severity of symptoms mean more long term symptoms and Omicron is relatively milder. Nobody knows at this point.

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

gohuskies posted:

This preprint study believes that vaccination reduces the incidence of Long Covid https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.05.22268800v1

Time frame was for people who initially got sick March 2020-June 2021, so mostly pre-Delta and very pre-Omicron, but Omicron is so new at this point anyways that prognosticating about Long COVID from it is pretty meaningless. Maybe Omicron means more Long COVID because vaccines stop LC and Omicron does well versus vaccines, maybe Omicron means less LC because severity of symptoms mean more long term symptoms and Omicron is relatively milder. Nobody knows at this point.
The relative risk reductions aren't as good as I would have hoped or expected. I had thought it would have been a similar risk reduction as for acute symptoms :negative:. Let's hope a lot of those remaining ones are psychosomatic.

Wang Commander
Dec 27, 2003

by sebmojo

DethisaGift posted:

The problem is throughput.

Miami has a bunch of tents that take 5-7 days to turn around and are probably running fake COVID tests just like the cubans in Hialeah run fake medicare scams all day long.

The city designated testing center had 7 hour long lines. Everyone kept going to the same ones, and there were only 5 overall.

And Miami is a car based city, how the gently caress do you test the 20 million people in New York without infected folks infecting other on public transport with how infectious omicron is?

I mean I live in a car based metro of 2M and the testing has only really gotten hosed up a few times. We're not trying to snap test the whole city like it's Xi'an, we're just trying to have testing meaningfully exist on a quick timeframe to inform travel and treatment. Presumably in Miami, a metro of 6M, you could just... have 36 drive through testing sites instead of 12? I don't understand why this stuff can't scale.

DethisaGift
Jan 10, 2022

by Pragmatica

Wang Commander posted:

I mean I live in a car based metro of 2M and the testing has only really gotten hosed up a few times. We're not trying to snap test the whole city like it's Xi'an, we're just trying to have testing meaningfully exist on a quick timeframe to inform travel and treatment. Presumably in Miami, a metro of 6M, you could just... have 36 drive through testing sites instead of 12? I don't understand why this stuff can't scale.

Because no one knows how to do anything and the mayor cares more about boosting his crypto than Covid.

Riptor
Apr 13, 2003

here's to feelin' good all the time
Boston-area wastewater showing a potential crest to the spike

https://www.mwra.com/biobot/biobotdata.htm

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?
e: just barely beaten, but here, have an image

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*
so it crested ~20th Dec? am i reading that right? have cases followed that curve pattern?

crepeface fucked around with this message at 00:05 on Jan 12, 2022

Riptor
Apr 13, 2003

here's to feelin' good all the time

crepeface posted:

so it crested ~20th Dec? am i reading that right? have cases followed that curve pattern?

From Universal Hub, a great Boston area news blog where I saw this data posted:

https://www.universalhub.com/2022/deer-island-numbers-suggest-local-covid-19-surge posted:

The latest actual numbers of new Covid-19 cases reported by the state showed 17,802 new confirmed cases today, down from the 27,612 new confirmed Covid-19 cases reported on Jan. 6. However, the state reported 2,970 people with Covid-19 yesterday, up from 2,923 the day before. The state also reported 116 new confirmed Covid-19 deaths.

Suzera
Oct 6, 2021

This spell rocks. It'll pop you right out of that funk.
Cases don't seem to have followed that curve. There's not a Boston specific graph here, but there are per county breakdowns with minigraphs for the last 14 days. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/massachusetts-covid-cases.html

Riptor
Apr 13, 2003

here's to feelin' good all the time
The upswing of cases did follow, but it lagged. Would the inverse make sense too?

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Discendo Vox posted:

So when the executive branch tries to get the masks, who do they pay, and with what money? How do they distribute them? Do you think an immediate stay won't be granted? Do you think saying that something is illegal makes it more possible?

You are the person who posted a twitter thread from a random former anesthesiology instructor who now works for a telehealth and doctor social media company. Here's Reuters citing Pfizer itself on the status of the trials.

I haven’t seen this covered yet — what do you make of Bernie Sanders’s proposal? Is it a total waste of time? Is there any reason to be hopeful or is this getting our hopes up?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/bernie-sanders-n95-masks-biden-b1990909.html?amp posted:


As the Biden administration and CDC take steps to bolster the US’s response to the spread of the Covid-19 variant and its knock-on effects, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is adding pressure to provide free high-grade masks to all Americans.

In a tweet Monday, the senator shared a graphic headed “Not all masks are created equal”, which shows the different length of protection against transmission of Covid-19 provided by different masks. Below the table are the words: “We need N95 masks for all.”

The senator’s intervention comes as the CDC is reportedly weighing whether to recommend all Americans who can start wearing N95 and KN95 masks, both of which provide substantially more protection than the cloth or thin disposable masks worn by most people in day-to-day life.

The Biden administration has also been under heavy pressure to improve the provision of free over-the-counter self-testing kits, which have proven both hard to obtain and expensive as the Omicron variant spreads fast.

While much of early 2020 saw the Trump administration struggle to organise a reliable supply of protective equipment just for healthcare workers, Mr Sanders has long been an advocate of providing free protective masks to the population at large.

In July 2020, he introduced a bill with multiple Democratic cosponsors that would have seen masks delivered by the US Postal Service around the country and made available to vulnerable populations including care home residents and unhoused people.

“What we want to do,” the senator said at the time, “is say to the American people that masks are important and that we will provide every person in this country with three reusable masks, the highest quality that we can.

“And I think by doing that, by getting masks out to every household in the country, it sends the message, which Trump should have sent many months ago, that wearing a mask is very, very important.”

The Senate was controlled by the Republican Party at the time, and the legislation did not pass.

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!

Riptor posted:

The upswing of cases did follow, but it lagged. Would the inverse make sense too?

Could just be because there's a several day lag between excreting virus and people getting symptoms and testing positive?

Suzera
Oct 6, 2021

This spell rocks. It'll pop you right out of that funk.

Riptor posted:

From Universal Hub, a great Boston area news blog where I saw this data posted:
Does the source of these numbers have the worldometer problem of backdating cases so the most recent day is always lower than it should be and dates in the past are filled in more every day?

Riptor posted:

The upswing of cases did follow, but it lagged. Would the inverse make sense too?
It seems like a reasonable enough theory, but not born out by evidence here since there's no corresponding drop in cases on the days between the spike and now unless I'm missing something.

Suzera fucked around with this message at 00:25 on Jan 12, 2022

Suzera
Oct 6, 2021

This spell rocks. It'll pop you right out of that funk.

Fritz the Horse posted:

Could just be because there's a several day lag between excreting virus and people getting symptoms and testing positive?
Unless it's a long enough lag, longer than we're guessing the infection to symptomatic time is (a few days), we'd have seen it by now in the recorded case rates if the peak was in December.

Something like exceeding testing capacity suppressing recorded cases might be a more reasonable culprit if cases tracking waste mrna is a good predictive theory, though I would be surprised if overwhelming testing capacity had this much of an effect at this juncture and it also seems kind of questionable since testing has also gone up a bit, making seeing a drop in recorded cases some amount more likely if real infections were dropping.

Suzera fucked around with this message at 00:26 on Jan 12, 2022

Riptor
Apr 13, 2003

here's to feelin' good all the time

Suzera posted:

Does the source of these number have the worldometer problem of backdating cases so the most recent day is always lower than it should be and dates in the past are filled in more every day?

No idea but it's been accurate with previous waves on both sides as far as I'm aware

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*
going by the graph, deer island should have "low" cases by now, right? it's like 2 weeks past where the x-asis cuts off

Suzera
Oct 6, 2021

This spell rocks. It'll pop you right out of that funk.
Another possibility, if the correlation between cases and waste mrna is sound, is that some recent change in waste processing caused less mrna detection. Or equipment problems.

Suzera
Oct 6, 2021

This spell rocks. It'll pop you right out of that funk.
Looking closer at the graph, the peak is a bit after January 1. So maybe it's fine and we'll see a definite new case drop sometime in the next several days.

E chart found:
1/1/2022 11502 6568
1/2/2022 13282 7773
1/3/2022 13342 10196
1/4/2022 6670 8264
1/5/2022 10588 10833
1/6/2022 7579 6549
1/7/2022 5944 4705
1/8/2022 6624 3640
1/9/2022 5758 3807
1/10/2022 5595 2319

Suzera fucked around with this message at 00:35 on Jan 12, 2022

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

Suzera posted:

Looking closer at the graph, the peak is a bit after January 1. So maybe it's fine and we'll see a definite new case drop sometime in the next several days.

E chart found:
1/1/2022 11502 6568
1/2/2022 13282 7773
1/3/2022 13342 10196
1/4/2022 6670 8264
1/5/2022 10588 10833
1/6/2022 7579 6549
1/7/2022 5944 4705
1/8/2022 6624 3640
1/9/2022 5758 3807
1/10/2022 5595 2319

where's that from? seems promising. is it normal for wastewater detection to predict for cases with a 3-4 week delay? i haven't actually paid much attention to wastewater figures (a sentence that i did not think i'd ever say)

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!
You can monitor lots of things from wastewater. Not just viral outbreaks, also usage of drugs (medications and illicit). People excrete metabolites into the wastewater, you can estimate rates of drug usage based on that kinda like with this epidemic tracking.

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*
oh, i get that. the 3-4 week lag to cases is what surprises me. i would have thought it would be a present indicator, not a future indicator.

Illuminti
Dec 3, 2005

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Mellow Seas posted:


So I took an antigen test in a rejection of my negative PCR result from the saliva test. It is positive, but god drat is it barely positive.

An example positive (left), my test (right):


Make sure you look really close at your test strip!

I havn't done a RAT test yet, but out of interest for when I do, why is that barely positive? Your strip looks the same as the example....

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

mawarannahr posted:

I haven’t seen this covered yet — what do you make of Bernie Sanders’s proposal? Is it a total waste of time? Is there any reason to be hopeful or is this getting our hopes up?

He introduced it as a bill. That's the whole point.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Discendo Vox posted:

He introduced it as a bill. That's the whole point.

Do you have the insight to answer my question and possibly give some hope? My take-home was that it’s pointless and there’s absolutely no way to make it happen.

Suzera
Oct 6, 2021

This spell rocks. It'll pop you right out of that funk.
Bottom of the page here click pdf for the numbers. https://www.mwra.com/biobot/biobotdata.htm

I have no idea what kind of delay they might have, other than I would not expect these graphs to spike before people are infected in order to poop out enough to cause the spike. If it does otherwise track well for case curve prediction and is longer than a few days prior to cases appearing, then maybe infection time is farther prior to symptoms than we currently expect or something. I didn't really check it for specific lag time to cases on either up or down sides (and I'm probably not at this exact moment) so don't take this as an endorsement from me for or against a 3-4 week lag time.

Suzera fucked around with this message at 00:51 on Jan 12, 2022

Dick Trauma
Nov 30, 2007

God damn it, you've got to be kind.
I asked HR for a response to my request to work from home and was told that the company is going to increase testing. So... everyone here's going to get COVID but by golly we'll have an excellent record of the spread.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Suzera posted:

Bottom of the page here click pdf for the numbers. https://www.mwra.com/biobot/biobotdata.htm

I have no idea what kind of delay they might have, other than I would not expect these graphs to spike before people are infected in order to poop out enough to cause the spike. If it does otherwise track well for case curve prediction and is longer than a few days prior to cases appearing, then maybe infection time is farther prior to symptoms than we currently expect or something. I didn't really check it for specific lag time to cases on either up or down sides (and I'm probably not at this exact moment) so don't take this as an endorsement from me for or against a 3-4 week lag time.

Here is my theory (which I ran by some folks at our university and they thought it was plausible): the biobot data is picking up Cov2 in the animal reservoir. Sewer rats, mice, dogs, cats, etc.

Wang Commander
Dec 27, 2003

by sebmojo
Are the sampling locations distributed enough that they would not be fooled by a change in poopin' patterns like the kids taking half their shits in school?

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

Suzera posted:

Bottom of the page here click pdf for the numbers. https://www.mwra.com/biobot/biobotdata.htm

I have no idea what kind of delay they might have, other than I would not expect these graphs to spike before people are infected in order to poop out enough to cause the spike. If it does otherwise track well for case curve prediction and is longer than a few days prior to cases appearing, then maybe infection time is farther prior to symptoms than we currently expect or something. I didn't really check it for specific lag time to cases on either up or down sides (and I'm probably not at this exact moment) so don't take this as an endorsement from me for or against a 3-4 week lag time.

oh, i thought your table was cases, not cases/mL.



i went looking and weirdly, media and the company themselves are talking about cases getting underreported. i have no idea why the graph shows the cresting drop, all reports don't address it at all and talk about how poo poo's getting worse.

https://twitter.com/BiobotAnalytics/status/1479116373531848720?s=20

https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2022/01/06/massachusetts-wastewater-covid-samples-boston-omicron/

quote:

Massachusetts reported a record 27,612 new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, more than 600 than the previous record.

And yet, in all likelihood, the real number is significantly higher.

new report coming soon apparently so we'll see how it goes

Sharks Eat Bear
Dec 25, 2004

Suzera posted:

Cases don't seem to have followed that curve. There's not a Boston specific graph here, but there are per county breakdowns with minigraphs for the last 14 days. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/massachusetts-covid-cases.html

Fwiw, it doesn't look like as much of a lag if you just restrict to Boston: https://analytics.boston.gov/app/boston-covid

There are lots of articles and papers on wastewater detection of Covid. Here's one example, just for illustrative purposes, that says "RNA load in raw wastewater is a leading indicator of positive COVID-19 cases, new hospitalization and admission into ICUs by 5, 8 and 9 days, respectively." You can google or pubmed search around and find other studies, but from everything I've seen, a lag of a few days between wastewater levels and actual case counts seems pretty typical.

Given the constraints on testing access and the possibility of more asymptomatic cases with omicron, it wouldn't be too surprising if this current wave had a higher lag time between wastewater detection and case counts, but that's just my speculation.

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!

Wang Commander posted:

Are the sampling locations distributed enough that they would not be fooled by a change in poopin' patterns like the kids taking half their shits in school?

I assume it's the same location or locations sampled over time.

edit: that's not a particularly helpful response on my part. If someone doesn't dig up the answer I'll look shortly after dinner.

When you're doing wastewater monitoring for other things it's one or several fixed points monitored over time.

The other thing that might affect this is storm drainage, potentially. If the storm drains are flushing a bunch of precipitation through that will dilute your sample. I'm assuming that's controlled for though and this isn't including storm drainage.

Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 01:27 on Jan 12, 2022

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Suzera
Oct 6, 2021

This spell rocks. It'll pop you right out of that funk.

crepeface posted:

oh, i thought your table was cases, not cases/mL.

i went looking and weirdly, media and the company themselves are talking about cases getting underreported. i have no idea why the graph shows the cresting drop, all reports don't address it at all and talk about how poo poo's getting worse.
At least just in case, the wastewater sampling is not cases as in infected people, just viral rna amount per volume tested. So any given infected person is generating more than 1 viral rna copy, and an amount that will vary over the time of their infection. What the wastewater graph says is that people in total are pooping out less total viral rna. Whether or how well this corresponds to infected cases on a per person basis is still in question afaik.

There's at least a dozen reasons I can think of that there might not be a good correlation between viral rna pooped out and cases at this exact moment.

Sharks Eat Bear posted:

Fwiw, it doesn't look like as much of a lag if you just restrict to Boston: https://analytics.boston.gov/app/boston-covid

There are lots of articles and papers on wastewater detection of Covid. Here's one example, just for illustrative purposes, that says "RNA load in raw wastewater is a leading indicator of positive COVID-19 cases, new hospitalization and admission into ICUs by 5, 8 and 9 days, respectively." You can google or pubmed search around and find other studies, but from everything I've seen, a lag of a few days between wastewater levels and actual case counts seems pretty typical.

Given the constraints on testing access and the possibility of more asymptomatic cases with omicron, it wouldn't be too surprising if this current wave had a higher lag time between wastewater detection and case counts, but that's just my speculation.
If it's that solid on that timeframe, then I might speculate if we don't see a pretty sharp decline in cases soon that the detection method being used in wastewater here might not detect Omicron as well. There were a lot of new Delta cases in the US still up to around Christmas, but estimatedly not so much after New Years.

Petey posted:

Here is my theory (which I ran by some folks at our university and they thought it was plausible): the biobot data is picking up Cov2 in the animal reservoir. Sewer rats, mice, dogs, cats, etc.
This would also be an interesting cause I hadn't thought of yet.

Suzera fucked around with this message at 01:38 on Jan 12, 2022

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