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Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

CPU Abuser posted:

I don't think so.

IIRC, the mesh size in conventional N-95 masks is about 320 nanometers.

Coronaviruses are 80-120 nanometers in size, per the wikipedia page. Not all that different from influenza virions, IIRC.

The masks still stop them when properly fitted. The stock explanation of this, back during the 2003 SARS epidemic, was static charge on the virion.

But I wonder if we're not really looking at virions suspended in aerosolized water droplets? I don't really know the answer to that one, perhaps someone else here does. If we are, the average particle size of the aerosol could easily be an order of magnitude larger than that of the virions themselves.

Melt-blown polypropylene filters don’t work like meshes. Particles bumble into them one way or another and stick because of Van der Waals force.



Diffusion is really effective for small particles. Inertial impaction and interception are effective for large particles. The sum of the mechanisms reaches a nadir at approximately three hundred nanometres. N95 masks capture a minimum of ninety‐five percent of particles of this diameter. They capture a much larger fraction of larger and smaller particles, down to something approaching the size of gases.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCRdtTMHNXE

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gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

Raccooon posted:

What book is this?

"Wealth and Democracy: A Political History of the American Rich", Kevin Phillips

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

Business Gorillas posted:

is there any actual science behind the "covid dies in 10 seconds"? because the cynic in me sounds like the consent machine is pivoting to removing every single COVID safety measure and saying "if you die, you die"

Maybe.

But the thing is that the decay, if it’s even real, is already more or less baked into the models. The longish time/distance ærosol risk is what it is. The new knowledge wouldn’t be “huh there’s no risk after just a few minutes”. It would be “wow the exposure is just off the charts for face‐to‐face conversations”.

We always knew that the close-in danger of ærosols is high just because of dilution. This is why airliners cannot be all that safe no matter how many air changes per hour they can manage. This would further add to that.

https://twitter.com/linseymarr/status/1480934047618682885
https://twitter.com/linseymarr/status/1481003353194782721

Platystemon fucked around with this message at 15:36 on Jan 12, 2022

one-time fee
Sep 29, 2021

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
I read nn taleb's fooled by randomness way back when. I should've known from that experience, but holy poo poo what a smug self-satisfied pos.

These vids where he talks over Yaneer Bar-Yam are painful to watch.

Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

sucks to be right

Trixie Hardcore posted:

Shear Modulus posted:

i thought i was an alcoholic but later when i was filling out a check in form for an unrelated medical visit there was a screening questionnaire for alcohol use disorders and everything they asked about was stuff i'd never considered like "have your friends and family told you they're concerned about your drinking" and "has your drinking caused you financial difficulties"
Does this mean rich people can’t be alcoholics?

Johnny Depp famously got into financial strife in part because because he wouldn't stop buying millions of dollars worth of rare wines and drinking them but that's more of an exception which proves the general rule than anything


Trixie Hardcore posted:

I contacted one of our local funeral homes about green burials and they told me they could cremate me and put my ashes in one of those Himalayan salt lamps and I feel like we really got our wires crossed on that one.

My mother requested that after she died there be absolutely no funeral or memorial headstone of any kind and just that she be cremated and the ashes put in several small vegemite jars so everyone in the family could bring them along whenever they traveled and sprinkle a little bit of her at the places they visited. I only found this out years after she died, Dad followed most of her wished except the vegemite jars thing and had her ashes put in urns instead and didn't tell us about the traveling & sprinkling aspect.

Greg Legg
Oct 6, 2004
The teacher who was out on Monday to care for her sick daughter CAME IN yesterday before her daughter tested positive. I leave here in 3 hours to head to another school. This is getting exhausting

Chad Sexington
May 26, 2005

I think he made a beautiful post and did a great job and he is good.

Zurtilik posted:

At ~2,500 a day we have the highest cause of death being a contagious disease and we're trying to make that just a thing that happens now, nothing to worry about. This is also with like 4 of the other top 10 leading causes of death going up disproportionately to their prior years, meaning more than likely COVID is contributing to that many more deaths.

Absolutely mild times.

ftfy

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.

Platystemon posted:

I don’t know a whole lot about wastewater surveillance, but that drop is waaaaaaay sharper than we ever seen in graphs of cases, which makes me strongly suspect that there is some other factor involved.

Maybe omicron doesn't shed in poop

mystes
May 31, 2006

Zurtilik posted:

At ~2,500 a day we have the highest cause of death being a contagious disease and we're trying to make that just a thing that happens now, nothing to worry about. This is also with like 4 of the other top 10 leading causes of death going up disproportionately to their prior years, meaning more than likely COVID is contributing to that many more deaths.

Absolutely wild times.
People die all the time, so really what's the big deal if we make the number of people who die larger?

Ham Cheeks
Nov 18, 2012

Feeling hammy
doom

Ham Cheeks
Nov 18, 2012

Feeling hammy
DOOM

NeonPunk
Dec 21, 2020

Business Gorillas posted:

is there any actual science behind the "covid dies in 10 seconds"? because the cynic in me sounds like the consent machine is pivoting to removing every single COVID safety measure and saying "if you die, you die"

I say nah. Because if you think about it for a few seconds, this really is like a "HOLY loving poo poo" moment. With how so many people are getting sick, even those bunker hermit is getting positive, it heavily implies that even a single viron particles is enough to create a full-blown infection.

But everyone else is going to read this and take away the opposite, that all those hospitalization and deaths aren't from Covid, after all it can't infect us if we just breath a little bit slower.

Ham Cheeks
Nov 18, 2012

Feeling hammy
DOOM!

Suzera
Oct 6, 2021

This spell rocks. It'll pop you right out of that funk.
Wow, it's this infectious at a tiny fraction of it's full power! Imagine how infected you would get if you just directly inhaled someone's covid plume.

E after catching up: Platystemon we must now have a duel to the death.

Suzera fucked around with this message at 16:13 on Jan 12, 2022

NeonPunk
Dec 21, 2020

No need for employers to provide any masks or mandate mask at work if you only need to hold your breath in 15 seconds intervals.

Covid is over! Get back to work

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

Business Gorillas posted:

is there any actual science behind the "covid dies in 10 seconds"? because the cynic in me sounds like the consent machine is pivoting to removing every single COVID safety measure and saying "if you die, you die"

it doesn't matter if it were true, because any situation that leads to an exposure is one where the 10 second limit (or whatever the gently caress) is never hit

if you're sitting across from a table from a carrier, and both of you don't have masks on, you're going to get infected, because a 10 second timer on the virus is meaningless is something is spewing more virus with every breath and every spoken word

Good Soldier Svejk
Jul 5, 2010

Serf posted:

this literally does not match up with material reality. the numbers cannot be explained by a virus that dies 10 seconds after leaving the body

doesn't matter it's a material fact now like "mild" and you will hear libs chanting it as a mantra by this afternoon

Zodium
Jun 19, 2004

one-time fee posted:

I read nn taleb's fooled by randomness way back when. I should've known from that experience, but holy poo poo what a smug self-satisfied pos.

These vids where he talks over Yaneer Bar-Yam are painful to watch.

nnt is a real piece of work who should shut up about everything besides probability theory specifically, and i usually lead with a disclaimer to that effect, but that's just their dynamic. yaneer is the gentle scholar, nnt is the attack dog. it works.

Good Soldier Svejk
Jul 5, 2010

ooh government's breaking down
https://twitter.com/HuffPost/status/1481064015338090496?s=20

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

gradenko_2000 posted:

fuckin' absolutely. The relationship between the US and China has happened before. Check it:











What book is that? I’ll go pick up a copy, that perfectly explained what I was wondering about. Thanks!

papa horny michael
Aug 18, 2009

by Pragmatica

Golli
Jan 5, 2013



The COVID-19 circuit breaker dashboard has been updated to include an "ICU View". This is in addition to its overall hospitalization status for states/counties.

I check the dashboard just to see how things are going in my county.

note: Circuit Breaker is the term they are using to mean the point at which a governmental entity should impose lockdowns or other measures to avert overloading hospitals.

https://alexanderjxchen.github.io/circuitbreaker/

ikanreed
Sep 25, 2009

I honestly I have no idea who cannibal[SIC] is and I do not know why I should know.

syq dude, just syq!

Suzera posted:

Wow, it's this infectious at a tiny fraction of it's full power! Imagine how infected you would get if you just directly inhaled someone's covid plume.

The thing is it's believable, but doesn't mean what the media is saying it means.


If a COVID positive person leaves a room, then you go in ten seconds later, you might well only have a 50% chance of being infected, versus the near hundred if they were breathing on you.


That doesn't mean that that's a half life, or that another 10 seconds and it's down to 25%, just that the smallest and least persistent droplets evaporate or settle quickly, and there's an absolute gently caress ton of those

NeonPunk
Dec 21, 2020

Using a public bathroom without any mask is perfectly safe as long you wait 10 seconds after the other person leave.

UnknownTarget
Sep 5, 2019


Did everyone just stop making GBS threads? How is this possible?

Golli
Jan 5, 2013



UnknownTarget posted:

Did everyone just stop making GBS threads? How is this possible?

Maybe the recent cold snap rendered virions in the wastewater unresponsive to the test.

NeonPunk
Dec 21, 2020

The 10 seconds thing absolutely absolve Mr Hootington. He and his wife couldn't impossibly infect anyone else at the movies since 10 seconds is far too short of a time for the virus to be spread everywhere.

Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

sucks to be right

Platystemon posted:

I highly doubt that it’s animals, just based on sheer biomass.


euphronius posted:

restricting it to land is deceptive

and to mammals

Land mammals is the appropriate stat for when we're talking about potential covid reservoirs which could flip back into humans, tho. There is a coronavirus which is known to infect beluga whales but I'm not going to worry about the whales nearly as much as the possibility that cattle or sheep or rats might become a zoonotic reservoir.

Pink Mist
Sep 28, 2021

UnknownTarget posted:

Did everyone just stop making GBS threads? How is this possible?

Someone speculated that it could be college kids leaving the area for winter break. I would like to see this replicated in other areas.

skewetoo
Mar 30, 2003

maybe it will just go away on its own

CPU Abuser
Oct 3, 2021
Probation
Can't post for 77 days!

Substandard posted:

Thanks for the recommendation! I'm going to check it out. I've read basically nothing but sword and sorcery fantasy stuff since COVID started and destroyed my ability to read anything remotely difficult, so this seems like a nice change of pace.

I found the "Laundry" series a bit hard to get into.

But IMHO, Stross' "Merchant Princes" Trilogy and the follow-on "Empire Games" trilogy were just plain knock-your-socks-off awesome.

"Merchant Princes" puts a naive reader in mind of the first two novels of Zelazny's Amber series.

Nothing could be further from the truth. These are hard science fiction novels, all the way. And Stross put some steady serious work and research into his world-building. Considerably more than mind-candy.

The only caveat is that the first "Merchant Princes" series were originally published as six novels. This was publisher BS, which Stross repaired in the fullness of time. Get the three "omnibus" novels: "The Bloodline Feud", "The Traders' War", and "The Revolution Trade".

And put your thinking cap on. It's a lot more fun that way. Stross put plenty of meat in the stew. Here's just one example out of many: he set up the worldwalker clans' country of origin in his primary alternate universe as a classical economic "development trap". A major sub-plot of the first trilogy is Miriam Beckstein's determined attempts to get the worldwalker timeline past that.

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

restaurants own sorry if you do not enjoy them

jemand
Sep 19, 2018

Blackhawk posted:


I was thinking in the shower this morning how the desire of capital to get tourists back into the country could probably be totally met by allowing quarantine-free travel from China, which would be pretty bloody low risk vs. anywhere else in the world (and some of our nearby pacific island neighbors). I wonder if there are reasons other than racism and political antagonism that they don't look into that? I'm sure China would not allow quarantine-free return, but that might still be worth it for the more cashed-up Chinese citizens?

China should negotiate with NZ to allow zero quarantine outgoing travel, and limited or no quarantine return, as long as NZ implements strong controls against arrivals from countries with uncontrolled spread. Potentially get Chinese partnership running their quarentines, in the optimal case.

China would significantly benefit from setting up a visible zero covid country network. NZ would be an exceptionally strong partner for this. It would help in removing a lot of ideological dismissal of what really is possible. It would increase loss of legitimacy of the US network from governance and influence perspective to watching 3rd nations. Setting up and improving a close network here would be worth risking some isolated outbreaks that China already has shown they can handle.

The longer they truly stand alone the more risky things get for them in case anything spins out of control. They also are in a position to start pressing their improving power for international influence given how disastrous everywhere else is.

I don't think it will happen, China seems not very effective at pushing some of their international power compared to where I think they should be given their interests and obvious capability. But, I guess we will see.

jemand fucked around with this message at 16:02 on Jan 12, 2022

triple sulk
Sep 17, 2014



can't believe i finally got the roni

triple sulk
Sep 17, 2014



incredibly blessed

:crnasickos:

NeonPunk
Dec 21, 2020

Restaurant is not a source of spread at all. The CDC was right to recommend that you only wear your mask as you walk to your table and take it off to eat since it only takes 10 seconds for your breath to infect anyone else so clearly as you're sitting at your table without any mask, you can't infect or get sick at all.

Twigand Berries
Sep 7, 2008

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7987002/

can weed save us?

Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

sucks to be right
Australia lost a little bit of momentum yesterday but Denmark really fuckin' blinked so we're still in a good position to overtake them soon:


https://ourworldindata.org/explorer...USA~GBR~AUS~DNK

That's not including Australia's 100k+ result today which should give us a nice big surge on tomorrow's graph. Of course there's quite a few challengers who are already way ahead of Denmark, that Y-axis is getting a heck of a workout

https://ourworldindata.org/explorer...CYP~IRL~FRA~ISL

Pepperoneedy
Apr 27, 2007

Rockin' it



UnknownTarget posted:

Did everyone just stop making GBS threads? How is this possible?

covid is over

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Zodium
Jun 19, 2004

UnknownTarget posted:

Did everyone just stop making GBS threads? How is this possible?

the extreme exponential spikes could be partly driven by omicron burning through the low hanging fruit of the unvaccinated population, who are also not masking or taking any precautions whatsoever, very quickly, then slowing down dramatically as it starts digging into the warier, vaccinated population.

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