[Biosphere Collapse] 420 days of blazin' it

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Biosphere Collapse] 420 days of blazin' it

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(Thread IKs: Stereotype)

Basic Poster: May 11, 2015; Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.

On Facebook

Shima Honnou posted:

It's a triple

So how come there are so few videos about this whole end of everything business? Obviously this is the end of the funnel, but the redditors who are on that one? There's YouTube videos about unboxing lube and ill gotten hair plugs? But like a handful on putting together the endless torrent of happenings into a narrative? Maybe at least a loving Frontline or something?

# ? Jan 14, 2022 09:45

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# ? May 25, 2024 23:08

Homeless Friend: Jul 16, 2007

hekaton posted:

# ? Jan 14, 2022 09:46

Basic Poster: May 11, 2015; Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.

On Facebook

Basic Poster posted:

It's a triple

So how come there are so few videos about this whole end of everything business? Obviously this is the end of the funnel, but the redditors who are on that one? There's YouTube videos about unboxing lube and ill gotten hair plugs? But like a handful on putting together the endless torrent of happenings into a narrative? Maybe at least a loving Frontline or something?

I mean this was 12 loving days ago.

Lmao

https://youtu.be/Mb6CxoH-ZB8

# ? Jan 14, 2022 10:00

Raine: Apr 30, 2013; ACCELERATIONIST SUPERDOOMER

Basic Poster posted:

I mean this was 12 loving days ago.

Lmao

https://youtu.be/Mb6CxoH-ZB8

3 minutes 11 seconds of silent black screen i dont get it

# ? Jan 14, 2022 10:04

Enfys: Feb 17, 2013; The ocean is calling and I must go

hekaton posted:

The Demilich posted:

Oh baby.
Gimme a sixer with this.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Jan 14, 2022 10:29

karmaconfetti: Dec 22, 2009; Wie vuur eet, schijt vonken.

vyelkin posted:

I honestly had trouble following who did and didn't want one (because I am very stupid), so for the sake of my sanity just quote this post if you want a sixer with a bdelloid rotifer as the image

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Jan 14, 2022 10:44

toggle: Nov 7, 2005

JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

On average, goons think civilization will collapse* around 2053 (as early as 2033, no later than 2159).

ok so what would be the first things to really go in order to hit those years? especially in these next 11 years? pls share your disaster ranking lists thx

also:

vyelkin posted:

I honestly had trouble following who did and didn't want one (because I am very stupid), so for the sake of my sanity just quote this post if you want a sixer with a bdelloid rotifer as the image

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Jan 14, 2022 10:49

CODChimera: Jan 29, 2009

JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

Well while everyone is waiting for their probes to finish I guess they can enjoy the survey results

On average, goons think civilization will collapse* around 2053 (as early as 2033, no later than 2159). I had to prune some of the numbers that ran into billions of years because they'd gently caress with these averages. In the end there was only a handful of values above the year 3000, and the next highest was 2300. So I pruned everything above 2300.

_{*the survey presented this as "what year do you think you, personally, will struggle to feed your family or have to defend yourself from others who are struggling to feed their family" - a controversial definition but I wanted to keep people on the same page}

A more useful metric might be the median, as it reduces the influence of outliers. Half of goons think civilization will collapse around or before 2040.

But because people tend to pick nice round numbers (as seen above), the median isn't always that great for showing differences between subsets, so given the very few 'outliers' that were pruned, I'll stick to averages anyway.

Does engagement with the thread predict doomerism? Probably! Goons that read the thread obsessively are far* more doomer:

_{*i'm not gonna say significantly more doomer because i frankly can't be bothered to analyse the actual statistical significance**)}

_{**and even if I did, there is VERY MUCH a sampling bias here because the latter two groups will be under-represented in the survey}

Younger goons are far more hopeful (i.e. "dear civilization, please live longer than me ")

Goons' attitudes to children don't seem to make a whole lot of difference to doomerism, which surprised me, but it might be because there's too much noise-to-signal in the data (which might also explain that weird anomaly there in the third category)

_{clarification: "hopes for" is shorthand for wanting, expecting, or hoping for children at some future point}

I might do some more analysis tomorrow on location and media consumption but that will be more of a ballache so I'll just finish with this:

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

gently caress i totally missed all of this but that's awesome. you should do this again in a few year because it could be pretty interesting

# ? Jan 14, 2022 10:58

wynott dunn: Aug 9, 2006; What is to be done?

Who or what can challenge, and stand a chance at beating, the corporate juggernauts dominating the world?

vyelkin posted:

I honestly had trouble following who did and didn't want one (because I am very stupid), so for the sake of my sanity just quote this post if you want a sixer with a bdelloid rotifer as the image

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Jan 14, 2022 11:06

Prophet of Nixon: May 7, 2007; Thou art not a crook!

vyelkin posted:

I honestly had trouble following who did and didn't want one (because I am very stupid), so for the sake of my sanity just quote this post if you want a sixer with a bdelloid rotifer as the image

Here for the Jupiter-style permanent cyclone.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Jan 14, 2022 12:45

Mola Yam: Jun 18, 2004; Kali Ma Shakti de!

i'm gonna be really scared when the power goes out forever and everything crumbles

like my heart's gonna beat really fast and i'll probably cry a lot

until then it's really funny though

# ? Jan 14, 2022 12:50

SSJ_naruto_2003: Oct 12, 2012

Vyelkin destroying the lepers colony

# ? Jan 14, 2022 13:13

Rectal Death Adept: Jun 20, 2018; by Fluffdaddy

Basic Poster posted:

I'm not a lurker, I just don't have a lot to add and also am not very funny.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzYGWF6qrts

# ? Jan 14, 2022 13:21

vyelkin: Jan 2, 2011

blatman posted:

give me the muppet man

also i commend your bravery for not putting a time limit on your post, rip your probing button

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

i am going to win the most probations contest

# ? Jan 14, 2022 14:55

WorldsStongestNerd: Apr 28, 2010; by Fluffdaddy

vyelkin posted:

I honestly had trouble following who did and didn't want one (because I am very stupid), so for the sake of my sanity just quote this post if you want a sixer with a bdelloid rotifer as the image

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Jan 14, 2022 15:06

Tungsten: Aug 10, 2004; Your Working Boy

vyelkin posted:

I honestly had trouble following who did and didn't want one (because I am very stupid), so for the sake of my sanity just quote this post if you want a sixer with a bdelloid rotifer as the image

feeling extra doomed this morning

kirk image please

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Jan 14, 2022 15:16

Barry Soteriology: Mar 1, 2020

guys this isn't a joke

# ? Jan 14, 2022 15:22

Perry Mason Jar: Feb 24, 2006; "Della? Take a lid"

Topo Chico Debarge posted:

guys this isn't a joke

lol

# ? Jan 14, 2022 15:27

Holybat: Dec 22, 2006; I made this while you were asleep.

vyelkin posted:

I honestly had trouble following who did and didn't want one (because I am very stupid), so for the sake of my sanity just quote this post if you want a sixer with a bdelloid rotifer as the image

Cool

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Jan 14, 2022 15:50

Ruggan: Feb 20, 2007; WHAT THAT SMELL LIKE?!

Basic Poster posted:

I'm not a lurker, I just don't have a lot to add and also am not very funny.

same, oh well

# ? Jan 14, 2022 15:59

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

# ? Jan 14, 2022 16:03

mediaphage: Mar 22, 2007; Excuse me, pardon me, sheer perfection coming through

Basic Poster posted:

I'm not a lurker, I just don't have a lot to add and also am not very funny.

doesn't stop anyone else from poasting!

# ? Jan 14, 2022 16:09

Jel Shaker: Apr 19, 2003

JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

Well while everyone is waiting for their probes to finish I guess they can enjoy the survey results

On average, goons think civilization will collapse* around 2053 (as early as 2033, no later than 2159). I had to prune some of the numbers that ran into billions of years because they'd gently caress with these averages. In the end there was only a handful of values above the year 3000, and the next highest was 2300. So I pruned everything above 2300.

_{*the survey presented this as "what year do you think you, personally, will struggle to feed your family or have to defend yourself from others who are struggling to feed their family" - a controversial definition but I wanted to keep people on the same page}

A more useful metric might be the median, as it reduces the influence of outliers. Half of goons think civilization will collapse around or before 2040.

But because people tend to pick nice round numbers (as seen above), the median isn't always that great for showing differences between subsets, so given the very few 'outliers' that were pruned, I'll stick to averages anyway.

Does engagement with the thread predict doomerism? Probably! Goons that read the thread obsessively are far* more doomer:

_{*i'm not gonna say significantly more doomer because i frankly can't be bothered to analyse the actual statistical significance**)}

_{**and even if I did, there is VERY MUCH a sampling bias here because the latter two groups will be under-represented in the survey}

Younger goons are far more hopeful (i.e. "dear civilization, please live longer than me ")

Goons' attitudes to children don't seem to make a whole lot of difference to doomerism, which surprised me, but it might be because there's too much noise-to-signal in the data (which might also explain that weird anomaly there in the third category)

_{clarification: "hopes for" is shorthand for wanting, expecting, or hoping for children at some future point}

I might do some more analysis tomorrow on location and media consumption but that will be more of a ballache so I'll just finish with this:

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

publish this in the journal of doomerism and malthusian theory

# ? Jan 14, 2022 16:09

lollontee: Nov 4, 2014; Can't post for 10 years!

vyelkin posted:

i am going to win the most probations contest

time to put astrals work into a test. just how badly can you gently caress up the lepers colony and maintain joke cohesion?

# ? Jan 14, 2022 16:21

CODChimera: Jan 29, 2009

technically you could class it as activism, overwhelming the system with so many probes that it just stops working

# ? Jan 14, 2022 16:26

lollontee: Nov 4, 2014; Can't post for 10 years!

pog boyfriend posted:

every now and then i have to make a thread because some jag floods the lepers colony with giant lovely images making the function of the website unreadable

# ? Jan 14, 2022 16:26

Perry Mason Jar: Feb 24, 2006; "Della? Take a lid"

lollontee posted:

edit: omg they did it https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3990847 lol

# ? Jan 14, 2022 16:35

Mayor Dave: Feb 20, 2009; Bernie the Snow Clown

Lmao not the sanctity of the lepers colony!

# ? Jan 14, 2022 16:42

Paradoxish: Dec 19, 2003; Will you stop going crazy in there?

hekaton posted:

ok you got me I'll take a loving sixer with this one

# ? Jan 14, 2022 16:44

fanfic insert: Nov 4, 2009

vyelkin posted:

I honestly had trouble following who did and didn't want one (because I am very stupid), so for the sake of my sanity just quote this post if you want a sixer with a bdelloid rotifer as the image

# ? Jan 14, 2022 16:44

IAMKOREA: Apr 21, 2007

vyelkin posted:

I honestly had trouble following who did and didn't want one (because I am very stupid), so for the sake of my sanity just quote this post if you want a sixer with a bdelloid rotifer as the image

# ? Jan 14, 2022 16:45

Microplastics: Jul 6, 2007; It's what's for dinner.

Mayor Dave posted:

Lmao not the sanctity of the lepers colony!

I wasn't gonna take another probe but now that I know it annoys people? Well, gentlemen, it seems the balance of the equation has changed

# ? Jan 14, 2022 16:46

Trabisnikof: Dec 24, 2005

Perry Mason Jar posted:

edit: omg they did it https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3990847 lol

well now i have to, since a boring scold told me not to do it

vyelkin posted:

I honestly had trouble following who did and didn't want one (because I am very stupid), so for the sake of my sanity just quote this post if you want a sixer with a bdelloid rotifer as the image

# ? Jan 14, 2022 16:47

Ssthalar: Sep 16, 2007

vyelkin posted:

I honestly had trouble following who did and didn't want one (because I am very stupid), so for the sake of my sanity just quote this post if you want a sixer with a bdelloid rotifer as the image

Give me one for the road and another for the end of the world.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 17:03

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

I'm glad the biosphere collapse thread is no longer about biosphere collapse and is now instead GBS as gently caress

# ? Jan 14, 2022 17:13

Cup Runneth Over: Aug 8, 2009; She said life's
Too short to worry
Life's too long to wait
It's too short
Not to love everybody
Life's too long to hate

SKULL.GIF posted:

I'm glad the biosphere collapse thread is no longer about biosphere collapse and is now instead GBS as gently caress

It's not that bad, yet.

# ? Jan 14, 2022 17:15

Harry Potter on Ice: Nov 4, 2006; IF IM NOT BITCHING ABOUT HOW SHITTY MY LIFE IS, REPORT ME FOR MY ACCOUNT HAS BEEN HIJACKED

SKULL.GIF posted:

I'm glad the biosphere collapse thread is no longer about biosphere collapse and is now instead GBS as gently caress

Yea pretty weird. We must be further along than anticipated

# ? Jan 14, 2022 17:16

mediaphage: Mar 22, 2007; Excuse me, pardon me, sheer perfection coming through

SKULL.GIF posted:

I'm glad the biosphere collapse thread is no longer about biosphere collapse and is now instead GBS as gently caress

lol literally at the end of a few pages discussing when goons think biosphere collapse will irreconciliably distort society beyond what we can predict

# ? Jan 14, 2022 17:16

Paradoxish: Dec 19, 2003; Will you stop going crazy in there?

SKULL.GIF posted:

I'm glad the biosphere collapse thread is no longer about biosphere collapse and is now instead GBS as gently caress

If we can't enjoy the end of the world then what are we even doing with our lives

# ? Jan 14, 2022 17:23

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# ? May 25, 2024 23:08

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

mediaphage posted:

lol literally at the end of a few pages discussing when goons think biosphere collapse will irreconciliably distort society beyond what we can predict

do not gaslight me. the past 7 pages have been :razz:

probations.

my personal outlook is that civilization will persist in pockets and regions throughout, but that globalization will collapse around the middle of the century due to multiple stressors on the system combined with terran output taking a massive blow from general climate collapse and heat increases. after the end of globalization is exceedingly difficult to predict what will happen beyond general immiseration and death

# ? Jan 14, 2022 17:26

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Biosphere Collapse] 420 days of blazin' it

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