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smellmycheese
Feb 1, 2016


Lmao and indeed Lol

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keep punching joe
Jan 22, 2006

Die Satan!
Won't be happy until a Tory MP briefs the media that Boris pissed himself and maybe did a poo also.

smellmycheese
Feb 1, 2016

keep punching joe posted:

Won't be happy until a Tory MP briefs the media that Boris pissed himself and maybe did a poo also.

The Dark Sharts of Politics

Gonzo McFee
Jun 19, 2010

Dabir posted:

Cue the centrist columns about how now that we've seen Boris's human side he's ok with us in 3, 2...

Nah the hit's been put out, Boris is desperately trying to bribe the press with Right wing bluster and the successors are all waiting their turn to be "The Worst Prime Minister in Living Memory dot Trade mark" like the last six.

Jedit
Dec 10, 2011

Proudly supporting vanilla legends 1994-2014

Red Oktober posted:

I'm intrigued about the idea of counting the letters. We know that only Sir Graham Brady gets them and have to take his word that they've been received.

But when they've 'reached' 54, does he then have to prove it? Or does he just say it's at 54, vote time.

I get that he'd be stupid to make it up, because if you can't get 54 to trigger then you won't get the vote through, but even that raises another question. If the vote can only be held each 12 months, could he 'declare' early to make sure it fails?

No, because there's no deadline by which letters must be submitted. Once an MP puts a letter in to the 1922, it's there unless and until he withdraws it. As soon as there are sufficient letters, a leadership contest is triggered.

Answers Me
Apr 24, 2012

Jedit posted:

No, because there's no deadline by which letters must be submitted. Once an MP puts a letter in to the 1922, it's there unless and until he withdraws it. As soon as there are sufficient letters, a leadership contest is triggered.

If I were a Tory I would submit a letter as soon as every new leader is elected and just leave it hanging there as a big dick power move. Opt out rather than opt in.

Bug Squash
Mar 18, 2009

ThomasPaine posted:

It's a hell of a gamble though, and what does Putin gain? A bit of a ratings boost? He's already untouchable in Russia. He got away with Crimea because of Western apathy, but I'm not sure that would hold once he started to seriously threaten to encroach on NATO's borders. Ukraine serves as a useful buffer state, and in any case would he want to even further tank relations with the EU/USA to take over a territory that would just end up being a huge headache to control?

Eastern Ukraine is relatively pro Russia, so that would be the target. Grab that, local police do most of the work suppressing local objection, Ukraine doesn't have the power to oppose it.

Putin is surviving by making just enough Russians feel proud and jingoistic enough to overlook that their standard of living is gradually declining despite victory after victory. Whether he needs this or not is calculus we don't know yet, and it could be the sabre rattling is all he's planning on doing.

Red Oktober
May 24, 2006

wiggly eyes!



Answers Me posted:

Is the running tally made known to them too? I can't remember from the May one. If so, I should imagine there's a flurry towards the end, with people hedging their bets submitting only when they're sure it'll definitely go through.

As far as I can tell it's totally up to him.

Jedit posted:

No, because there's no deadline by which letters must be submitted. Once an MP puts a letter in to the 1922, it's there unless and until he withdraws it. As soon as there are sufficient letters, a leadership contest is triggered.

Sure, but my question is "does Brady ever have to actually prove anything (to the 1922 comm)?". Could he just decide it's time for a vote and lie? Or conversely do the opposite?

By every 12 months, I mean that they can only hold a vote of no confidence every 12 months, not that there's a deadline for the letters.

keep punching joe
Jan 22, 2006

Die Satan!
Are you implying that a Tory MP would be deceitful?

Aipsh
Feb 17, 2006


GLUPP SHITTO FAN CLUB PRESIDENT

Oh DP"D" hodges? I think the correct translation is that Boris found the infinity stones and is gonna dust all of parliament leaving him galactic emporer

keep punching joe
Jan 22, 2006

Die Satan!
No10 forced to deny rumours

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1483755610382417927

Ghost Leviathan
Mar 2, 2017

Exploration is ill-advised.

Aidan_702 posted:

Oh DP"D" hodges? I think the correct translation is that Boris found the infinity stones and is gonna dust all of parliament leaving him galactic emporer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfYx_013UuY

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal
The story about me making GBS threads my pants was fabricated by my enemies who spent the entire night sneaking small pieces of poo poo into my pants.

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

ThomasPaine posted:

It's a hell of a gamble though, and what does Putin gain? A bit of a ratings boost? He's already untouchable in Russia. He got away with Crimea because of Western apathy, but I'm not sure that would hold once he started to seriously threaten to encroach on NATO's borders. Ukraine serves as a useful buffer state, and in any case would he want to even further tank relations with the EU/USA to take over a territory that would just end up being a huge headache to control?

They don't want control of all of Ukraine, it's old fashioned Great Game jockeying for position. Russia wants more control of the Black Sea, an objective that's been part of their strategic objectives for about as long as Russia has been a country, except now it's about control of both the oil and gas reserves directly under it and also the transit routes for oil and gas from Asia and the Middle East.

They also definitely *don't* want Ukraine to be a NATO member or any further west-aligned, and this sort of sabre-rattling is very much telling NATO this. It's also a bit of flexing to remind the EU - at a time of massive uncertainty over LNG prices - exactly where they're getting the majority of the fuel for their heating and a large chunk of their electricity generation. I'm sure all of this will nicely spike the price of LNG (that had been subsiding after hitting the peaks over December that destroyed so many highly efficient market participants over here), keeping the gravy train running for his mates at Gazprom a little while longer too.

feedmegin
Jul 30, 2008

Failed Imagineer posted:

Sinn Féin don't really have very extreme policies, just a history of killing people (but then, most political parties that have been around for a while can say that)

I thought they were very clear they weren't killing people, that was the IRA who they totally didn't know any members of at all, but they could 'understand their legitimate concerns'.

Rustybear
Nov 16, 2006
what the thunder said

Answers Me posted:

If I were a Tory I would submit a letter as soon as every new leader is elected and just leave it hanging there as a big dick power move. Opt out rather than opt in.

congrats you've just given up the biggest leverage you have as a backbencher, if your letter is in and momentum isn't building around it then it's clearly a dud and can be safely ignored and so can you

Jippa
Feb 13, 2009
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/an-article-by-the-defence-secretary-on-the-situation-in-ukraine

From:

Ministry of Defence

17 January 2022



I have lost count of how many times recently I have to had to explain the meaning of the English term “straw man” to my European allies. That is because the best living, breathing “straw man” at the moment is the Kremlin’s claim to be under threat from NATO. In recent weeks the Russian Defence Minister’s comment that the US is “preparing a provocation with chemical components in eastern Ukraine” has made that “straw man” even bigger.

It is obviously the Kremlin’s desire that we all engage with this bogus allegation, instead of challenging the real agenda of the President of the Russian Federation. An examination of the facts rapidly puts a match to the allegations against NATO.

First, NATO is, to its core, defensive in nature. At the heart of the organisation is Article 5 that obliges all members to come to the aid of a fellow member if it is under attack. No ifs and no buts. Mutual self-defence is NATO’s cornerstone. This obligation protects us all. Allies from as far apart as Turkey and Norway; or as close as Latvia and Poland all benefit from the pact and are obliged to respond. It is a truly defensive alliance.

Second, former Soviet states have not been expanded ‘into’ by NATO, but joined at their own request. The Kremlin attempts to present NATO as a Western plot to encroach upon its territory, but in reality the growth in Alliance membership is the natural response of those states to its own malign activities and threats.

Third, the allegation that NATO is seeking to encircle the Russian Federation is without foundation. Only five of the thirty allies neighbour Russia, with just 1/16th of its borders abutted by NATO. If the definition of being surrounded is 6% of your perimeter being blocked then no doubt the brave men who fought at Arnhem or Leningrad in the Second World War would have something strong to say about it.

It is not the disposition of NATO forces but the appeal of its values that actually threatens the Kremlin. Just as we know that its actions are really about what President Putin’s interpretation of history is and his unfinished ambitions for Ukraine.

We know that because last summer he published, via the official Government website, his own article “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians”. I urge you to read it, if you have time, because while it is comprehensive on his arguments it is short on accuracy and long on contradictions.

We should all worry because what flows from the pen of President Putin himself is a seven-thousand-word essay that puts ethnonationalism at the heart of his ambitions. Not the narrative now being peddled. Not the straw man of NATO encroachment. It provides the skewed and selective reasoning to justify, at best, the subjugation of Ukraine and at worse the forced unification of that sovereign country.

President Putin’s article completely ignores the wishes of the citizens of Ukraine, while evoking that same type of ethnonationalism which played out across Europe for centuries and still has the potential to awaken the same destructive forces of ancient hatred. Readers will not only be shocked at the tone of the article but they will also be surprised at how little NATO is mentioned. After all, is NATO ‘expansionism’ not the fountain of all the Kremlin’s concerns? In fact, just a single paragraph is devoted to NATO.

The essay makes in it three claims. One: that the West seeks to use division to “rule” Russia. Two: that anything other than a single nation of Great Russia, Little Russia and White Russia (Velikorussians, Malorussians, Belorussians) in the image advanced in the 17th Century is an artificial construct and defies the desires of a single people, with a single language and church. Third, that anyone who disagrees does so out of a hatred or phobia of Russia.

We can dispense with the first allegation. No one wants to rule Russia. It is stating the obvious that just like any other state it is for the citizens of a country to determine their own future. Russia’s own lessons from such conflicts as Chechnya must surely be that ethnic and sectarian conflicts cost thousands of innocent lives with the protagonists getting bogged down in decades of strife.

As for Ukraine, Russia itself recognised the sovereignty of it as an independent country and guaranteed its territorial integrity, not just by signing the Budapest Memorandum in 1994 but also its Friendship Treaty with Ukraine itself in 1997. Yet it is the Kremlin not the West that set about magnifying divisions in that country and several others in the Europe. It has been well documented the numerous efforts of the GRU and other Russian agencies to interfere in democratic elections and domestic disputes is well documented. The divide and rule cap sits prettiest on Moscow’s head not NATO’s.

Probably the most important and strongly believed claim that Ukraine is Russia and Russia is Ukraine is not quite as presented. Ukraine has been separate from Russia for far longer in its history than it was ever united. Secondly the charge that all peoples in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine are descendants of the ‘Ancient Rus’ and are therefore somehow all Russians. But in reality, according to historian Professor Andrew Wilson in his excellent essay for RUSI entitled “Russia and Ukraine: ‘One People’ as Putin Claims?” they are at best “kin but not the same people”. In the same way Britain around 900AD consisted of Mercia, Wessex, York, Strathclyde and other pre-modern kingdoms, but it was a civic nation of many peoples, origins and ethnicities that eventually formed the United Kingdom.

If you start and stop your view of Russian history between 1654 and 1917 then you can fabricate a case for a more expansive Russia, perhaps along the lines of the motto of the Russian Tsar before the Russian Empire “Sovereign of all of Rus: the Great, the Little, and the White” – Russia, Ukraine and Belarus respectively. And crucially you must also forget the before and after in history. You must ignore the existence of the Soviet Union, breaking of the Russian-Ukrainian Friendship Treaty, and the occupation of Crimea. Far more than footnotes in history, I am sure you will agree.

Ironically, President Putin himself admits in his essay that “things change: countries and communities are no exception. Of course, some part of a people in the process of its development, influenced by a number of reasons and historical circumstances, can become aware of itself as a separate nation at a certain moment. How should we treat that? There is only one answer: with respect!” However, he then goes on to discard some of those “historical circumstances” to fit his own claims.

Dubious to say the least, and not in anyway a perspective that justifies both the occupation of Crimea (in the same way Russia occupied Crimea in 1783 in defiance of the Russo-Turkish Treaty of Kuchuk-Kainarji in 1774) or any further invasion of modern Ukraine, as an independent sovereign country.

The last charge against the West by many in the Russian Government is that those who disagree with the Kremlin are somehow Russophobes. Leaving aside that GRU officers deployed nerve agents on British streets or that cyber hacking and targeted assassinations emanate from the Russian state, nothing could be further than the truth.

Russia and the UK share a deep and often mutually beneficial history. Our allegiances helped to finally defeat Napoleon and later Hitler. Outside of conflict, across the centuries we shared technology, medicine and culture. During the 18th Century Russia and Britain were deeply tied. Between 1704 to 1854, from age of Peter the Great through Catherine the Great and well into the 19th Century the British were to be found as admirals, generals, surgeons, and architects at the highest level of the Russian Court. The father of the Russian Navy – one Samuel Greig – was born in Inverkeithing in Fife.

That shared admiration is still true today. The British Government is not in dispute with Russia and the Russian people – far from it – but it does take issue with the malign activity of the Kremlin.

So, if one cold January or February night Russian Military forces once more cross into sovereign Ukraine, ignore the ‘straw man’ narratives and ‘false flag’ stories of NATO aggression and remember the President of Russia’s own words in that essay from last summer. Remember it and ask yourself what it means, not just for Ukraine, but for all of us in Europe. What it means the next time…

Rustybear
Nov 16, 2006
what the thunder said

Red Oktober posted:

As far as I can tell it's totally up to him.

Sure, but my question is "does Brady ever have to actually prove anything (to the 1922 comm)?". Could he just decide it's time for a vote and lie? Or conversely do the opposite?

By every 12 months, I mean that they can only hold a vote of no confidence every 12 months, not that there's a deadline for the letters.

i asked this yday and i think the answer is he doesn't have to prove anything, so he can def do extreme grey area poo poo like hold off announcing teh threshold has been reached while the whips try to talk a few into retracting or announcing early to encourage others to bandwagon and get over the line proper if anyone checks the numbers later somehow

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

feedmegin posted:

I thought they were very clear they weren't killing people, that was the IRA who they totally didn't know any members of at all, but they could 'understand their legitimate concerns'.

LOL ..... i'm getting flashbacks to the 1980's after reading that. ;)

Forgot to mention in my list of parties that we actually have a Green Party here in N.I. with two members in the Assembly, i have absolutely no idea if they are any good or not. :shrug:

ThomasPaine
Feb 4, 2009

We have no compassion and we ask no compassion from you. When our turn comes, we shall not make excuses for the terror.

feedmegin posted:

I thought they were very clear they weren't killing people, that was the IRA who they totally didn't know any members of at all, but they could 'understand their legitimate concerns'.

Yeah, this was my understanding. Sinn Fein served as the reasonable, diplomatic wing of the Irish nationalist movement, and insisted they had nothing to do with the scary IRA. I have absolutely no doubt that they were, in fact, part of a deliberate double pronged strategy and were, behind the scenes, very pally with each other, but officially they were able to disavow one another as politically expedient and were smart enough to make sure they were either squeaky clean or nothing would stick - it's probably true that very few if any Sinn Fein members, and especially the leadership, were active in IRA operations.

That said I wouldn't be surprised if Gerry knew where quite a few bodies were hidden.

ThomasPaine fucked around with this message at 12:35 on Jan 19, 2022

Rustybear
Nov 16, 2006
what the thunder said
has something new happened with russia, why is this a concern now?

putin squeezes the gas pipelines with one hand and threatens ukraine with the other as a loss motivator in the various bilateral talks russia is conducting + if the situation in belarus accelerates organically and unexpectedly he has troops it the vicinity

when they actually seized Crimea they did so suddenly with no build up or warning and using plain clothed troops etc for maximum confusion. if you can delay your opponents response just 6-12hours you can gain a ton of ground and a huge advantage. marching up and down the border for weeks is a great way to walk into heavily prepared fighting positions and twitchy trigger happy opponents the second you step over the border

maybe he knows that we know that he knows that tho... [cue sinister russian music]

feedmegin
Jul 30, 2008

Guavanaut posted:

Marmite Crystal Oscillator?
Marmite Xhocolate Orange?
Marmite eXtinction Orwellian?

Can't be Marmite Christo, pope's a Bovril man.

Possibly :thejoke: but 'Extra Old' aka aged more, by analogy with brandy. It's sort of a bit milder and richer.

Rustybear
Nov 16, 2006
what the thunder said

ThomasPaine posted:

Yeah, this was my understanding. Sinn Fein served as the as reasonable, diplomatic wing of the Irish nationalist movement, and insisted they had nothing to do with the scary IRA. I have absolutely no doubt that they were, in fact, part of a deliberate double pronged strategy and were, behind the scenes, very pally with each other, but officially they were able to disavow one another as politically expedient and were smart enough to make sure they were either squeaky clean or nothing would stick - it's probably true that very few if any Sinn Fein members, and especially the leadership, were active in IRA operations.

That said I wouldn't be surprised if Gerry knew where quite a few bodies were hidden.

it''s as confirmed as can be confirmed that both gerry and martin mcguinness were on the ira army council; one and the same at least in the bad old days

gerry adams has been asked repeatedly in the dáil about the location of jean mcconville and gets quite animated! he knows where more than a few bodies are

Red Oktober
May 24, 2006

wiggly eyes!



Rustybear posted:

i asked this yday and i think the answer is he doesn't have to prove anything, so he can def do extreme grey area poo poo like hold off announcing teh threshold has been reached while the whips try to talk a few into retracting or announcing early to encourage others to bandwagon and get over the line proper if anyone checks the numbers later somehow

Ah, nice one, found your previous post and I'll read around that.

Jaeluni Asjil
Apr 18, 2018

Sorry I thought you were a landlord when I gave you your old avatar!
According to the Heil (bearing in mind they are Johnson supporters), Johnson did cry in front of MPs and also why is this called Pork Pie attack? I assumed it was because porkies was faux cockney for lies but apparently it is because one of the gang of 109 is MP for Melton Mowbray, purveyors of finest pork pies.

source: heil/news/article-10417645/Boris-faces-make-break-PMQs-Red-Wall-MPs-threaten-no-confidence-move.html

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

https://twitter.com/dril/status/549425182767861760?t=6_aLZzrGg1FvOlIJKFJftQ&s=19

This, but with uncontrollable custardy weeping

Aipsh
Feb 17, 2006


GLUPP SHITTO FAN CLUB PRESIDENT
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1483767484624818176?s=20

RING THE DEFECTION BELL

keep punching joe
Jan 22, 2006

Die Satan!
New MP just dropped

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1483767025935790081

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref


Do we get to see a dramatic crossing the floor in PMQs today then

Miftan
Mar 31, 2012

Terry knows what he can do with his bloody chocolate orange...

As if we needed more proof that the Labour party is no longer a left wing organisation.

XMNN
Apr 26, 2008
I am incredibly stupid
https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1483768328107827201?t=PQ-V2cfYvLvPUjiDht_zfQ&s=19

stev
Jan 22, 2013

Please be excited.



They may as well all just sit on whichever side they fancy on any given day.

keep punching joe
Jan 22, 2006

Die Satan!
Are the numbers there for all of the 2019 tories to defect to Labour, bring down the government, and force a GE?

a pipe smoking dog
Jan 25, 2010

"haha, dogs can't smoke!"
Lol loving hell last election I ruined my shoes campaigning against that twat and now they've just let him join the party.

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal

stev posted:

They may as well all just sit on whichever side they fancy on any given day.
That's how it worked before some dillweed invented parties.

domhal
Dec 30, 2008


0.000% of Communism has been built. Evil child-murdering billionaires still rule the world with a shit-eating grin. All he has managed to do is make himself *sad*. It has, however, made him into a very, very smart boy with something like a university degree in Truth. Instead of building Communism, he now builds a precise model of this grotesque, duplicitous world.
BREAKING: Chris Grayling is concerned about deforestation.

Answers Me
Apr 24, 2012
Unsure what to make of this. Obviously the grimness of StarmerLabour being a welcome place for 'reformed Tories' speaks for itself, but on the other hand, if this is some sort of bellweather for THE RED WALL pivoting to 'the Tories have betrayed us' then it could spark off something useful maybe.

(Just playing devil's advocate really, I'm sure 'Never Trust A Tory, Labour are just Red Tories' is still the long and short of it)

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

keep punching joe posted:

Are the numbers there for all of the 2019 tories to defect to Labour, bring down the government, and force a GE?

No, losing all 48 would just about bring the Tories below half (322) but with the NI parties they'd be able to rule as a minority again.

a pipe smoking dog posted:

Lol loving hell last election I ruined my shoes campaigning against that twat and now they've just let him join the party.

Yeah my first thought was "who was the Labour candidate this twat beat"

bump_fn
Apr 12, 2004

two of them

hahahahahahahahahahahahhahahadffaggfdagdfgfda

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Skull Servant
Oct 25, 2009

More like Christian WOKEford!!!

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