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Potentially positive movement from Germany. https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1483442362395377666?t=dgCyolpMThCstS6S8tOYlQ&s=19
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Jan 19, 2022 04:02
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Cugel the Clever posted:Potentially positive movement from Germany. Might be the only language Putin understands. Good, glad to hear it.
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Jan 19, 2022 04:05
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I wonder what if any impact the Olympics will have on Russias invasion timeline (if they actually do intend to invade). I guess it's not impossible but I think it would be awkward as hell for Russia to invade another country while the Olympics are going on. If I remember correctly back in 2014 they invaded Crimea like right after the Sochi Olympics ended?
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Jan 19, 2022 04:16
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Charliegrs posted:I wonder what if any impact the Olympics will have on Russias invasion timeline (if they actually do intend to invade). I guess it's not impossible but I think it would be awkward as hell for Russia to invade another country while the Olympics are going on. If I remember correctly back in 2014 they invaded Crimea like right after the Sochi Olympics ended? russia is famous for respecting the sanctity of international sporting events so you may be on to something here
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Jan 19, 2022 04:18
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Oh good a nice healthy story about Olympic athlete's native countries disappearing from existence mid way through the games.
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Jan 19, 2022 04:39
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How are u posted:Might be the only language Putin understands. Good, glad to hear it. In the long term, the amount of gas transferred through this pipeline isn't that significant and I don't think it's possible for Europe to suddenly switch to other LNG Sources. That said, it's kind of the crown jewel of Russia's energy infrastructure and definitely hits a sore spot.
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Jan 19, 2022 04:46
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https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1483425034148491266
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Jan 19, 2022 07:17
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:In the long term, the amount of gas transferred through this pipeline isn't that significant and I don't think it's possible for Europe to suddenly switch to other LNG Sources. That said, it's kind of the crown jewel of Russia's energy infrastructure and definitely hits a sore spot. It's not just volume, the other pipelines mostly run through other countries and places Russias money spigot under the influence of those countries. If you have alternative routes that can circumvent those transit countries it lessens that influence and one can force your own will on those transit countries by fiddling with your own spigot at the border.
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Jan 19, 2022 07:49
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How are u posted:Might be the only language Putin understands. Good, glad to hear it. It's not such a big step as media pretends. The pipeline is currently in legal limbo and the new German government has put the decision on whether to take it online to the EU(with the expectation that the EU will kill it). Russian expectations of it ever going online were probably already slim to none.
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Jan 19, 2022 08:16
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GABA ghoul posted:It's not such a big step as media pretends. The pipeline is currently in legal limbo and the new German government has put the decision on whether to take it online to the EU(with the expectation that the EU will kill it). Russian expectations of it ever going online were probably already slim to none. The symbolism of the relatively Russia-friendly Scholtz being forced to bow down to the public pressure to freeze the pipeline is still quite a lot, though. Paints a picture of where German policy is headed after Merkel.
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Jan 19, 2022 08:34
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Welp. War is so dumb meat grinder. It's awful how a bunch of young men are going to simply be sent to their deaths for no good reason and whom honestly probably would have gotten along just fine if it wasn't their lovely leaders. This isn't guaranteed yet -- we're at the stage of dynamic evaluation of the risks/rewards/costs (anyone who grew up on a street with gopniks who would test you for how hard it is to steal from you knows this dance). There are still ways to back out and save face. Putin had weak responses to invading Georgia and even in 2014-2015, but he still had to pretend and not directly invade outright a Ukraine that was falling apart while having the support of a lot of russian-speakers. Sanctions from the west came slowly and there were good friends there. Now the west is calling out Russia in advance, it is united, Ukraine is a functioning state and no one wants to become a people's Republic ruled by hobos and russian officers, etc. He doesn't want to destroy his relationship with the west and risk not just economic sanctions on Russia, but problems for oligarchs Right now I'm most concerned about a justification, there's no hypothetical genocide against russian-speakers to prevent so fabricating something very vile is the next step to up the stakes. This guy seems to think punitive military actions without occupation are most likely: https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/moscows-compellence-strategy/ Worth reading Somaen fucked around with this message at 11:04 on Jan 19, 2022 |
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Jan 19, 2022 09:27
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GABA ghoul posted:Russian expectations of it ever going online were probably already slim to none.
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Jan 19, 2022 09:32
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Is it possible they plan only to invade and annex the Donbas but go no further?
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Jan 19, 2022 09:35
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barbecue at the folks posted:The symbolism of the relatively Russia-friendly Scholtz being forced to bow down to the public pressure to freeze the pipeline is still quite a lot, though. Paints a picture of where German policy is headed after Merkel. Lavrov looked much less smug after meeting Baerbock than he did after the trash fire summit with Borrell.
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Jan 19, 2022 09:43
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Cugel the Clever posted:Potentially positive movement from Germany. Ramrod Hotshot posted:Is it possible they plan only to invade and annex the Donbas but go no further? Grouchio fucked around with this message at 10:56 on Jan 19, 2022 |
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Jan 19, 2022 09:57
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:Is it possible they plan only to invade and annex the Donbas but go no further? Russia breaks the Minsk agreement and becomes responsible for feeding and providing to the local population. Invasion predictions come true, sanctions hit. Russian population upset that the economy gets worse and they have to feed people that should be Ukraine's problem. Everything that was valuable in the Donbass has already been stolen, mostly pensioners remain who are also dying from covid Too high risk/cost for little reward I think
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Jan 19, 2022 10:03
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Grape posted:With the really weird aspect of fighting what are basically ethnic cousins. I know a couple people that got brain-wormed by Kremlin media, and based on what they say it'd be likely that the counterinsurgency campaign would be led by Chechens and Dagestanis. Kadyrov's team has huge experience in that kind of "technically not genocide" action. Still it would get bloody quickly, and on a global scale. Ukrainian diaspora is surprisingly huge. No idea how many of 3 million Ukrainian citizens living in Russia identifies as Ukrainian, but for the 2 million that live in Poland it would be most. There's another ~0,5 million in rest of Western Europe and another 2 million in US+Canada.
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Jan 19, 2022 10:17
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Grouchio posted:Deutschland Deutschland Uber Alles Please don't post Nazi poo poo for funny thanks
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Jan 19, 2022 10:19
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Haramstufe Rot posted:Please don't post Nazi poo poo for funny thanks
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Jan 19, 2022 10:55
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Chechnya 1994: 1 milion Afghanistan 1979: 13 million Syria 2010: 21 milion Afghanistan 2001: 21 million Ukraine 2021: 41 million C'mon Russia, have a forever war.
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Jan 19, 2022 11:26
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Charliegrs posted:I wonder what if any impact the Olympics will have on Russias invasion timeline (if they actually do intend to invade). I guess it's not impossible but I think it would be awkward as hell for Russia to invade another country while the Olympics are going on. If I remember correctly back in 2014 they invaded Crimea like right after the Sochi Olympics ended? Sochi was part of the plan. Putin got a huge popularity boost after the games, which helped him do things he would have struggled to do otherwise. Hence the extreme focus on doping and making sure russian athletes won at all costs.
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Jan 19, 2022 11:36
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Freudian slippers posted:Sochi was part of the plan. Putin got a huge popularity boost after the games, which helped him do things he would have struggled to do otherwise. Hence the extreme focus on doping and making sure russian athletes won at all costs.
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Jan 19, 2022 14:55
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I just watched this, ahahahahahhaha. Jesus loving Christ.
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Jan 19, 2022 14:59
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Grouchio posted:
I would think Russia would have their eyes on the North Crimean Canal. Water wars and all that.
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Jan 19, 2022 16:33
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I read an article which pointed out that crimea has huge emotional value to most European Russians since it’s a warm weather location in a country with few of them and during the Soviet era it was one of the favorite places to put summer camps so many people have fond emotional attachments to it that helped Putin’s popularity when he annexed it. Nobody has the same warm feelings about wheat fields and coal mines of eastern Ukraine valuable as that might be economically and that’s probably affecting the political calculus.
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Jan 19, 2022 16:43
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Somaen posted:This isn't guaranteed yet -- we're at the stage of dynamic evaluation of the risks/rewards/costs (anyone who grew up on a street with gopniks who would test you for how hard it is to steal from you knows this dance). There are still ways to back out and save face. I've been following this guys twitter but from what I'm gathering he's thinking military action is becoming more and more likely. Granted, that doesn't mean it is going to happen but giving the way things are trending this doesn't look good and getting worse. Looking at it from an overall perspective, I don't see how on earth Putin could activate and move so many military units but then suddenly just turn around in leave. That's an enormous investment for nothing and you'd lose so much credibility. Gucci Loafers fucked around with this message at 16:50 on Jan 19, 2022 |
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Jan 19, 2022 16:47
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Yeah I feel like the decision was made months ago, and we're just seeing theatre and preparation.
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Jan 19, 2022 16:59
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:I don't see how on earth Putin could activate and move so many military units but then suddenly just turn around in leave. That's an enormous investment for nothing and you'd lose so much credibility.
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Jan 19, 2022 17:06
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Haramstufe Rot posted:Please don't post Nazi poo poo for funny thanks
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Jan 19, 2022 17:31
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:I don't see how on earth Putin could activate and move so many military units but then suddenly just turn around in leave. By getting the security guarantees he wants, or that he can pretend he wanted. That doesn't look to be happening so it won't stop. Cugel the Clever posted:As bad as backing down might appear, a ton of dead Russians for no tangible results is significantly more costly. Russian forces can crush the Ukrainian military with few to no casualties, and doing just that is in fact less costly from a domestic politics perspective than turning back around altogether.
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Jan 19, 2022 18:23
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A Buttery Pastry posted:It's not actually Nazi poo poo, not anymore than Germany in general. Deutschland über alles is a call to abandon regional reactionary/feudal loyalties in favor of a liberal German identity. Yeah, but it was still co-opted by the Nazis.
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Jan 19, 2022 18:40
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In somewhat Eastern European news, Finnish popular opposition to a NATO has dropped to a historic low of 42%.
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Jan 19, 2022 19:21
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A Buttery Pastry posted:It's not actually Nazi poo poo, not anymore than Germany in general. Deutschland über alles is a call to abandon regional reactionary/feudal loyalties in favor of a liberal German identity. And the swastika is just a hindu symbol for good luck. It's been coopted.
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Jan 19, 2022 19:25
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Conspiratiorist posted:Russian forces can crush the Ukrainian military with few to no casualties That's only if both sides agree to play clean. Good luck with Russia's land invasion if Ukraine chooses the nuclear option and turns the eastern border into no man's land with dirty bombs.
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Jan 19, 2022 19:30
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BoldFace posted:That's only if both sides agree to play clean. Good luck with Russia's land invasion if Ukraine chooses the nuclear option and turns the eastern border into no man's land with dirty bombs. I think it's safe to say Russia has escalation dominance when it comes to nonconventional weapons, that would be insane.
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Jan 19, 2022 19:33
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What the gently caress are you talking about?
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Jan 19, 2022 19:35
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If Ukraine had those dirty bombs, Crimea wouldn't have happened. And even if they had them, they wouldn't drop them on their own land and poison their own people. Kinda defeats the point of a weapon if it destroys your own country and people.
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Jan 19, 2022 19:43
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Even Zelenskyi says people should chill with the war chat. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFCTfmJfvGU
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Jan 19, 2022 19:45
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cinci zoo sniper posted:In somewhat Eastern European news, Finnish popular opposition to a NATO has dropped to a historic low of 42%. Read an article today about Sweden, currently sending troops to Gotland, and apparently also has a majority in parlement who wants to join nato. Although that won’t happen any time soon I guess. social democrats, who are in the majority, will block it? Maybe a Swedish goon can clarify:) In any case, Poetin is getting the exact opposite of what he was going for. If his intention was to keep neighboring countries looking more westward. Or maybe he just needs that sweet sweet Donbas land.
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Jan 19, 2022 19:58
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mrfart posted:Read an article today about Sweden, currently sending troops to Gotland, and apparently also has a majority in parlement who wants to join nato. Although that won’t happen any time soon I guess. social democrats, who are in the majority, will block it? Maybe a Swedish goon can clarify:) I don't think Sweden joining NATO at this point is likey, but yeah, you're unfamiliar with how Scandinavian social democrats work.
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Jan 19, 2022 20:05
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