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Ok but even if they start a war, which they might, doesn't mean they want to. I think they want NATO out of eastern europe and if they can't have that, going inte Ukraine is better than having NATO going into Ukraine.
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Jan 21, 2022 10:28
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I remember the same kind of panicking behaviour in 2003 when Bush was gathering forces in the Gulf and beating war drums in the UN. Obviously USA was just bluffing so that Saddam would end his WMD programs. It would take an idiot to start a war!
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Jan 21, 2022 10:29
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uno.mannschaft posted:Ok but even if they start a war, which they might, doesn't mean they want to. I think they want NATO out of eastern europe and if they can't have that, going inte Ukraine is better than having NATO going into Ukraine. Well, obviously they would rather achieve their goals without paying any price for it. I'm not sure if I understand what you're getting at here.
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Jan 21, 2022 10:34
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It will be interesting winter olympics in two weeks if there's a war raging between Ukraine and Russia.
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Jan 21, 2022 10:35
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uno.mannschaft posted:Ok but even if they start a war, which they might, doesn't mean they want to. I think they want NATO out of eastern europe and if they can't have that, going inte Ukraine is better than having NATO going into Ukraine. That's just sophistry. Obviously nobody wants a war for the sake of having a war, but not being able to get your policy objectives peacefully and deciding to have a war instead is considered by by everyone to be 'wanting a war'.
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Jan 21, 2022 10:35
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uno.mannschaft posted:Ok but even if they start a war, which they might, doesn't mean they want to. I think they want NATO out of eastern europe and if they can't have that, going inte Ukraine is better than having NATO going into Ukraine. Since those demands are categorically unacceptable and in violation of basic principles of sovereignty and national self-determination, as well as generally extortionist, the only possible outcomes are backing off or starting a war. It's the same sort of demands as was given to Serbia in 1914, Czechoslovakia in 1938 or Poland re. Gdansk in 1939, a fig leaf over the naked desire of an imperialist power to use force to have their way
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Jan 21, 2022 10:38
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Saying they want a war is kind of russofobic is all. They have geopolitical goals, and they might use force to achive them, but saying "they want war" is silly.
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Jan 21, 2022 10:38
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uno.mannschaft posted:Saying they want a war is kind of russofobic is all. They have geopolitical goals, and they might use force to achive them, but saying "they want war" is silly. OK, so say "intends to start a war" - does that make it any better? This is pointless babble around the central point.
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Jan 21, 2022 10:39
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uno.mannschaft posted:Saying they want a war is kind of russofobic is all. They have geopolitical goals, and they might use force to achive them, but saying "they want war" is silly. Lebensraum was a geopolitical goal, and the Germans would have also preferred for the Soviets to voluntarily kill themselves instead of fighting a war. "gGeoploitical reasons" isn't an excuse, every crime is committed for a reason that seemed good enough for the perpetrators. Pressing an issue which can't be conceded without the other party ceasing to exist isn't "having an interest", it's aggression, pure and simple, and it must be assumed the party applying such pressure is prepared to use the means necessary to achieve their goals (i.e. war), unless they are playing a game of chicken, which is also despicable and iresponsible. steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 10:43 on Jan 21, 2022 |
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Jan 21, 2022 10:39
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Osmosisch posted:OK, so say "intends to start a war" - does that make it any better? This is pointless babble around the central point. Well I don't think it's pointless, but I'll stop now.
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Jan 21, 2022 10:41
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steinrokkan posted:Lebensraum was a geopolitical goal, and the Germans would have also preferred for the Soviets to voluntarily kill themselves instead of fighting a war. Sure, but there are other means to achieve your goals than wishing your opponents die by divine intervention and going to war. And maybe thats what we are seeing now?
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Jan 21, 2022 10:45
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uno.mannschaft posted:Sure, but there are other means to achieve your goals than wishing your opponents die by divine intervention and going to war. And maybe thats what we are seeing now? Just to be clear that we exist in the same timeline, what we’re seeing right now is a rapid concentration of Russian armies near Ukrainian border, following Russian threats to retaliate against anything other than total submission to their intentionally ridiculous demands with military means.
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Jan 21, 2022 10:47
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'War is just a tool of geopolitics like any other' is a hell of a take.
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Jan 21, 2022 10:48
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I don't want to shoot you, I just happen to be waving a gun in your face and saying "give me all of your money or I'll be forced to do something we both regret." It's entirely unfair to paint this like I "want" to shoot you, it's just something that could happen if you don't agree to all of my demands. Of course I'd rather you just do everything I asked.
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Jan 21, 2022 10:50
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Alchenar posted:'War is just a tool of geopolitics like any other' is a hell of a take. well, this is an american forum lmao
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Jan 21, 2022 10:52
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Just to be clear that we exist in the same timeline, what we’re seeing right now is a rapid concentration of Russian armies near Ukrainian border, following Russian threats to retaliate against anything other than total submission to their intentionally ridiculous demands with military means. Could be a miscommunication in the Russian army. Or sometimes armies look bigger on TV due to the lighting an stuff. I don't think we should rule out anything yet.
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Jan 21, 2022 10:52
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GABA ghoul posted:Could be a miscommunication in the Russian army. Or sometimes armies look bigger on TV due to the lighting an stuff. I don't think we should rule out anything yet. Is the Russian army on our border very big or just very close? Oh poo poo it's both.
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Jan 21, 2022 10:55
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GABA ghoul posted:Could be a miscommunication in the Russian army. Or sometimes armies look bigger on TV due to the lighting an stuff. I don't think we should rule out anything yet.
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Jan 21, 2022 10:59
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uno.mannschaft posted:Sure, but there are other means to achieve your goals than wishing your opponents die by divine intervention and going to war. And maybe thats what we are seeing now? Generally, when you make a list of demands that are non-negotiable and deploy your military forces, you have one particular solution in mind, much the same way George Bush did in 2003.
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Jan 21, 2022 11:02
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uno.mannschaft posted:Sure, but there are other means to achieve your goals than wishing your opponents die by divine intervention and going to war. And maybe thats what we are seeing now? Not when - as I've made it clear - the goal is the annihilation of a sovereign country by stripping it of all autonomy. There are things which can't be achieved peacefully, just like there isn't a peaceful murder. E: And yeah, the demands are "you shoot yourself in the head, or we shoot you in the head" with no wiggle room, so the in this case already non-viable diplomatic process have been pre-empted by Russia herself. steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 11:08 on Jan 21, 2022 |
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Jan 21, 2022 11:02
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steinrokkan posted:Nobody wants a war, except for Russia, apparently. The goal is to stop the war from going through, or to punish Putin enough he ends up worse off than before if he actually attacks. Again, nobody expects armored divisions to drive across the Carpathians. Are sanctions too much of a sacrifice to be justified by avoiding the death of thousands and vassalisation of potentially millions? Nobody wants a war, right now, except Russia you mean. Russian interest in cracking up neighbors has always been pretty straightforward in its purpose of preventing NATO enroachment. Of course you can say its bullshit, delusional, etc but when you live in a world where the sandcastle can potentially be kicked over unilaterally you have to take preventative measures as a matter of course. Ultimately, you need a stick to compliment the carrot, its why the limited invasion line spilled out of bidens mouth, thats the realpolitik comprimise. I mean sanctions are already happening, have happened recently and will probably happen some more. I dont think any nation can look at the global climate trajectory, especially an energy producer, and not think enroachment is bad news for long term prospects within half a century.
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Jan 21, 2022 11:08
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Make song praising horse not war https://mobile.twitter.com/globusnewsorg/status/1483909281288273924
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Jan 21, 2022 11:09
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Well I think I'll retreat to my chambers since I don't think I understand your positions at all.
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Jan 21, 2022 11:09
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Homeless Friend posted:Nobody wants a war, right now, except Russia you mean. Russian interest in cracking up neighbors has always been pretty straightforward in its purpose of preventing NATO enroachment. Of course you can say its bullshit, delusional, etc but when you live in a world where the sandcastle can potentially be kicked over unilaterally you have to take prevtative measures as a matter of course. Ultimately, you need a stick to compliment the carrot, its why the limited invasion line spilled out of bidens mouth, thats the realpolitik comprimise. I mean sanctions are already happening, have happened recently and will probably happen some more. I dont think any nation can look at the global climate trajectory, especially an energy producer, and not think enroachment is bad news for long term prospects within half a century. Russia has been surrounded by NATO states, including NATO states right on its borders for almost 20 years (e: no, it's OVER 20 years), in those 20 years NATO has done exactly 0 things to threaten Russian integrity, while Russia keeps coercing its neighbors on a yearly basis, even if they have no desire to join NATO. Meanwhile history has shown that being in NATO or EU is the only way to be safe from Russian imperialism. When Putin speaks of Russian security, he means exclusively his ability to squeeze and exploit his neighbors. They had reasonably favorable position in the European structures prior to this, with all of Europe being quite willingly dependent on Russia for energy, effectively unarmed and indifferent to Russian internal going ons, but they were apparently willing to throw it all away and antagonize everybody for this, while also openly flaunting their interference in politics of foreign countries, that doesn't spell "willingness to compromise in good faith" to me. If Russia is brought to a compromise, it will be by being forced to do so, not by offering them to define the compromise on their terms. steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 11:21 on Jan 21, 2022 |
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Jan 21, 2022 11:09
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What's with the "poow widdle Russia has no choice but to invade its neighbours" takes from people who posted here first time today?
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Jan 21, 2022 11:18
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steinrokkan posted:When Putin speaks of Russian security, he means exclusively his ability to squeeze and exploit his neighbors. They had reasonably favorable position in the European structures prior to this, with all of Europe being quite willingly dependent on Russia for energy, but they were apparently willing to throw it away for this, that doesn't spell "willingness to compromise" to me. Yeah, he had a lot more influence in the Ukranian government before he decided to embark on military adventurism there. This is someone who favors the prestige and domestic appeal of winning wars over a strict, sober assessment of geopolitics.
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Jan 21, 2022 11:20
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I mean, wider concerns; Putin knows that Russia is on the clock demographically (big decline in working population coming up), economically (if you are a petrostate then you need to be spending the next 30 years pouring every penny you can into restructuring your economy or you are going to have a really bad time come 2050), and personally - he's personally close to being out of time to get the things he wants done. All a bit dangerous. e: and yeah, if you look at the broader picture all of Putin's wars have been bad for Russia - they only became 'necessary' because of disastrous failures of foreign policy, and they've each served to add sanctions and further solidify opposition to Russia across Europe. Alchenar fucked around with this message at 11:24 on Jan 21, 2022 |
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Jan 21, 2022 11:22
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It's weird how deliberately hostile Kremlin was to Ukraine. Imagine they just stood down in 2014, did some economic pressure, some minor propaganda campaign and in 2016 their people would most likely win the election. It would probably take about that long to enthusiasm to die down, protest leaders get discredited and people get tired of EU indecisiveness. I'm pretty certain Crimean operation was something planned way earlier, and given choice Putin just decided to go that way. It would be interesting to someday find out how long beforehand Donetsk and Luchansk operations were planned. Also how many of first strike disposable dudes are still around, and how many were quietly offed by Kremlin forces just in case.
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Jan 21, 2022 11:27
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Fair few of them were being transparently offed in the public back in 2014-2015 already.
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Jan 21, 2022 11:39
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Xarn posted:What's with the "poow widdle Russia has no choice but to invade its neighbours" takes from people who posted here first time today? The military build up is all over the news everywhere in the world. Lots of people who didn't know or care about the situation before are suddenly interested and posting about it for the first time. e: I mean, yeah, there are probably one or two tankie trolls here and there but let's not assume
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Jan 21, 2022 11:41
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steinrokkan posted:Russia has been surrounded by NATO states, including NATO states right on its borders for almost 20 years (e: no, it's OVER 20 years), in those 20 years NATO has done exactly 0 things to threaten Russian integrity, while Russia keeps coercing its neighbors on a yearly basis, even if they have no desire to join NATO. Meanwhile history has shown that being in NATO or EU is the only way to be safe from Russian imperialism. Look, I don't care about whether Russia is squeezing its neighbors. That's not the point I'm contending. I squeeze my neighbors all the time when I go down to TJ. I'm not arguing if this is justified. Nor am I saying NATO is rolling through the suwalki gap tomorrow I'm saying: Given the status quo defender (putin) can the powers that be of Russia be certain their control isn't in contention within a half a century. Like this guy says, they're on the clock. Alchenar posted:I mean, wider concerns; Putin knows that Russia is on the clock demographically (big decline in working population coming up), economically (if you are a petrostate then you need to be spending the next 30 years pouring every penny you can into restructuring your economy or you are going to have a really bad time come 2050), and personally - he's personally close to being out of time to get the things he wants done. All a bit dangerous. The fact is the west openly backed its horse. They exerted a great deal of influence when the USSR fell. Got some folks into NATO. Tightened up euros with the supranational project. So on and so forth. They also failed, for example with with getting Georgia into NATO (which, from my eyes, has always been the obvious tell of "NATO isn't purely here for Sovereignty Solutions™) and Ukraine. So now we're left in the present with this situation. Of course he's leveraging his position, its worth more now than later. I guess my position summed up into a single sentence is this: If Putin changed his name to Saddam Hussein, what would Russian Saddam's confidence be in him/his protege etc being around in 50 years? Is it more or less with Ukraine cracked up and unable to enter NATO+ Donbas/Crimea land bridge? I'm not commenting on who is right, just that its in their interest. For the same reason, I agree with you that any sane state's power centers will be strongly incentivized to join NATO (or Russia I guess, presumably whichever they come out ahead on/is most politically feasible) because they're in between the rock and the hard place. Panzeh posted:Yeah, he had a lot more influence in the Ukranian government before he decided to embark on military adventurism there. This is someone who favors the prestige and domestic appeal of winning wars over a strict, sober assessment of geopolitics. Yeah I typed of this post multiple times and one of things I cut was that conflict serves short term political purpose contrary to the longterm geopolitical ones. Not saying Putin is some modern napoleon supergenius lol. Homeless Friend fucked around with this message at 12:27 on Jan 21, 2022 |
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Jan 21, 2022 11:59
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alex314 posted:It's weird how deliberately hostile Kremlin was to Ukraine russian political talk shows have been operating in "ukraine Bad" mode ever since 2014 with no intention of stopping, it owns. like literally, about 50-70% of their airtime is non-stop unhinged pro-wrestling-match-level performative outrage on the topic of ukraine being Bad cinci zoo sniper posted:Fair few of them were being transparently offed in the public back in 2014-2015 already. speaking of, has anyone seen anything about what Igor Girkin's been up to as of late? he's been keeping quite a low profile thus far in this particular permutation of the conflict, it seems like. actually, i don't think i heard about him like since 2016?
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Jan 21, 2022 12:08
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Clevername posted:Do we have short and intermediate range nukes in Europe again? I thought we removed them all in the 90's, unless you count B61s, but those are literal bombs delivered by fighter-bombers, not decapitation strike weapons. Somaen posted:This thread is good when it's eastern Europeans posting their insights and lived experience, and very bad when it's Americans posting their stupid rear end takes about geopolitics
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Jan 21, 2022 12:22
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I think all of this is probably based on Russia's long term goal of securing Crimea. If Russia is seemingly going over the top aggro over some clearly unreasonable demands and then backing down, that pushes the Crimea issue into something that can be negotiated over (some time in the future). If Russia forces an existential crisis over an independent Ukraine then over time internationally recognised Russian Crimea becomes a possibility as it's pushed down the list of extreme issues. I don't think Putin has any intention of sending Russian troops over the border, his goal is scaring the bejesus out of the Ukrainians and securing a long term Russian future for Crimea.
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Jan 21, 2022 13:01
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Xarn posted:What's with the "poow widdle Russia has no choice but to invade its neighbours" takes from people who posted here first time today? Well there was a thread in gbs where they said you guys where loosing it itt so I checked in to see how you are doing. And of course I tried to reason a bit, pointing out how you could have a differing opinion. But you realize quickly that your'e arguing with terminally online people who have had the same circlejerk going for months, so I tried to slip away without much noise. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 21, 2022 13:02
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GABA ghoul posted:The military build up is all over the news everywhere in the world. Lots of people who didn't know or care about the situation before are suddenly interested and posting about it for the first time. I don't want to insinuate they are trolls, but I see the frequency of "poow widdle Russia" increasing, especially from Russia-aligned propaganda outlets, and it is increasingly convincing me that Russia wants to attack soon. Kinda like the various "no russia military, just vacationers/separatists" back during Crimea invasion.
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Jan 21, 2022 13:05
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uno.mannschaft posted:in gbs uno.mannschaft posted:arguing with terminally online people  Oh wait, you mean us.
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Jan 21, 2022 13:08
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https://twitter.com/AP/status/1484497500799225856
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Jan 21, 2022 13:09
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uno.mannschaft posted:Well there was a thread in gbs where they said you guys where loosing it itt so I checked in to see how you are doing. And of course I tried to reason a bit, pointing out how you could have a differing opinion. But you realize quickly that your'e arguing with terminally online people who have had the same circlejerk going for months, so I tried to slip away without much noise. Not wanting to be invaded is so laaame XDDD There are certain opinions that are matter of basic decency, such as "war waged for imperial gains is bad", and it's actually a sign of terminal online cynicism and spending too much time in doomposting hellholes if you think such a basic attitude is a "circlejerk" that people only believe because they've been brainwashed. steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 13:22 on Jan 21, 2022 |
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Jan 21, 2022 13:16
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:full on Neville chamberlain vibes on this one. Like unbelievable comparisons can be made. The US is unable to commit NATO troops on the ground and cannot sign NATO up for action unilaterally. The specific context for the quote that video uses is Biden first explaining that the economic sanctions will be costly to NATO but devastating for Russia, and nearly saying they will be used in the case of invasion, unqualified. Then he backs down from that statement because it opens the door for Putin to overfly Ukranian territorial waters or conduct cyber attacks and "prove" that NATO isn't committed to backing up the US. Germany might be willing to raise heating prices even further, especially if they can hold off doing so until February or March, but they're not going to do so for a Russian FONOP, drone strike or for a 20 acre Ukrainian farm. If Putin can goad the US into trying and failing to force economic costs that sow distrust in NATO, that's a W for him. piL fucked around with this message at 13:24 on Jan 21, 2022 |
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