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Xarn posted:Sorry, but wtf is wrong with Germans? Long history of being in the middle of Europe and quite often being the middle of Europe. There have always been a lot of both left-wing and conservative folks in Germany who see Russia as more of a potential ally instead of a threat.
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Jan 23, 2022 11:20
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Fritz the Horse posted:No worries, I'm just sensitive to the feedback during the last day or so with several EE posters clearly communicating they shouldn't be talked about as pawns in some armchair Tom Clancy chat and expressing how tense the situation is. "There were a hundred posts overnight and I don't know if that means hot war with Russia and my friends and family might be in danger, or someone is being dumb in the thread." If people want to do Clanceychat then the CW/Airpower thread in TFR has knowledgeable people talking shop. e: if people want some starter reading on Germany then you need to start with Ostpolitik. There's a German tradition that says that rappoachament and normalisation of relations was the key to ending the Cold War - not entirely wrong and this was probably a key element of preventing the Cold War going hot, but it tends to airbrush out how important credible military deterrence was, or that modern Russia is not the USSR and this is not the same kind of geopolitical conflict that can be addressed in the same way. Alchenar fucked around with this message at 11:34 on Jan 23, 2022 |
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Jan 23, 2022 11:25
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Xarn posted:Sorry, but wtf is wrong with Germans? Russian propaganda working on both political sides. The Left never got the memo that it's not properly socialist anymore and the Right likes how white and christian it is. Also, "Am Deutschen Wesen soll die Welt genesen", which I'd roughly translate as "The German character will heal the world", i.e., it's to the benefit of all other countries to follow Germany's lead. Exceptionalism. Other countries don't really know what's going on, only Germany understands and has to lead them. Of course, having learned all the right historical lessons, Germany is now the nicest and most peaceful nation. If only all other nations would be so peaceful and insightful!
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Jan 23, 2022 11:30
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barbecue at the folks posted:Long history of being in the middle of Europe and quite often being the middle of Europe. There have always been a lot of both left-wing and conservative folks in Germany who see Russia as more of a potential ally instead of a threat. Yeah, poo poo like that along with the gas shenanigans is why the anti-EU rhetoric of 'look how they don't care about anyone east of their border' gets so much traction here in Poland. Also because my country is so dumb, but that's another story.
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Jan 23, 2022 12:07
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Also Germany might have guilt over what they did to Russia or something
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Jan 23, 2022 12:43
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GABA ghoul posted:Germany doesn't really have an unusual relation in regards to gas with Russia. That's mostly uninformed op-ed claptrap. Many countries like Italy, the UK or the Netherlands have a higher per capita gas consumption than Germany and Russia's share of gas imports in Germany is pretty average for the EU. Germany also has a lot of price stable long term gas contracts, which allowed it to weather the energy crisis better than a lot of other European countries that rely on the spot market much more. There's few European countries quite as rabidly anti-nuclear and right now Germany's future energy policy seems to be married to natural gas.
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Jan 23, 2022 12:48
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Arzachel posted:There's few European countries quite as rabidly anti-nuclear and right now Germany's future energy policy seems to be married to natural gas. It’s Germany, Austria, and Liechtenstein, so just Germany in other words. I’m really looking forward to Russia holding European ecological policy by the balls. Hopefully Estonian nuclear power plant project works well, and Baltics go self-reliant that way. (I know that’s not how EU power distribution grid works.)
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Jan 23, 2022 12:53
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The grid being integrated is overall good, but it does breed resentment. It's easy to look at Germany doing stupid poo poo with their power plants, at the rising prices of electricity, and go "rear end in a top hat germans they are scared of nuclear power and we pay the price", even if it is nearly not the whole story.
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Jan 23, 2022 13:11
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Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:Russian propaganda working on both political sides. The Left never got the memo that it's not properly socialist anymore and the Right likes how white and christian it is. Yeah, good summary Arzachel posted:Germany's future energy policy seems to be married to natural gas. Yes, but so is Italy's or the Netherlands' or Belgium's, but they don't go around germansplaining to the world how we need to cut Russia some slack and regurgitating Russian state propaganda cinci zoo sniper posted:It’s Germany, Austria, and Liechtenstein, so just Germany in other words. I’m really looking forward to Russia holding European ecological policy by the balls. Also Switzerland is in the middle of a phase-out. So is Belgium. And Italy was the first one in Europe to do one back in the 90s. (nuclear power is probably even less popular there than in Germany). IIRC Spain also agreed on a phaseout but only once fossil fuels are fully replaced by renewables. Lots of other European countries never had nuclear plants and are categorically opposed to them. I don't know why the internet got so particularly hung up on Germany during the 2010s. My guess would be that the German phaseout was accompanied by lots of smug and self-righteous germansplaining, i.e. Am Deutschen Wesen soll die Welt genesen.
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Jan 23, 2022 13:47
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GABA ghoul posted:I don't know why the internet got so particularly hung up on Germany during the 2010s. My guess would be that the German phaseout was accompanied by lots of smug and self-righteous germansplaining, i.e. Am Deutschen Wesen soll die Welt genesen. GABA ghoul posted:Yes, but so is Italy's or the Netherlands' or Belgium's, but they don't go around germansplaining to the world how we need to cut Russia some slack and regurgitating Russian state propagandgenesen.
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Jan 23, 2022 14:06
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GABA ghoul posted:Also Switzerland is in the middle of a phase-out. So is Belgium. And Italy was the first one in Europe to do one back in the 90s. (nuclear power is probably even less popular there than in Germany). IIRC Spain also agreed on a phaseout but only once fossil fuels are fully replaced by renewables. Lots of other European countries never had nuclear plants and are categorically opposed to them. The difference between those other counties and Germany is that they don’t typically export anti-nuclear activism beyond their borders, unlike Germany. For case in point, here’s the full list of countries which have expressed opposition to inclusion of nuclear energy into EU “green taxonomy” for energy sources - Germany, Austria, Luxembourg, Denmark, and Spain. Or just Germany and Spain, as far as anyone is concerned. The only reason nuclear energy hasn’t been exorcised out of EU is Germany not being big enough to dunk on France, and U.K. formerly. That’s also why not just “the internet”, but also a lot of real life people and politicians are angry about German Greens and Russlandverstehers, because their words and actions tend to have far reaching effects. And that’s before we even touch the technical minutiae of German anti-nuclear stance, that frequently is in equal parts fiction and lobbyism, with substance conveniently left behind. It’s going to be actually difficult to tell Poland or Hungary anything about behaving or following the norm, if Germany ends up ramping fossil fuel consumption and being half a decade late on its emissions reductions commitments just for the sake of pearl clutching for domestic optics. Edit: Also we probably should move this to some EU thread or something. Or, well, I should just shut up and do something better with my Sunday than get angry about German energy politics. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 14:34 on Jan 23, 2022 |
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Jan 23, 2022 14:30
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On the other hand you can't expect Germany to support American geopolitical aims at the expense of domestic German ones. The reason the US cares about the Ukrainian issue is not because "Russia bad" it's because expanding NATO and NATO allies expands the American arms market and ultimately expands American mercantilist interests. American cultural hegemony is the goal. From a German perspective that is always going to be a secondary concern compared to their own interests and while there is of course some alignment with America there's no point damaging relations with Russia over the issue of Russian/Ukrainian relations that really has very little effect on Germany whatever way it goes.
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Jan 23, 2022 15:12
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Flayer posted:the issue of Russian/Ukrainian relations that really has very little effect on Germany whatever way it goes. Here's a thought exercise: imagine that an actual large-scale war happens in Ukraine, ruining its economy and threatening the lives of much of its population. How many refugees from a country of 44 million would reach Germany, which is 500 kilometres away? Hint: Syria at its peak had less than half of Ukraine's population, and is slightly further away.
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Jan 23, 2022 15:54
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God forbid Germany being on the right side of history for once.
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Jan 23, 2022 16:10
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Here's a thought exercise: imagine that an actual large-scale war happens in Ukraine, ruining its economy and threatening the lives of much of its population. How many refugees from a country of 44 million would reach Germany, which is 500 kilometres away? Or reach /Poland/, which has a giant land border with Ukraine and is in an economic union with Germany. Also, I think Syria probably wasn't a major food exporter....
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Jan 23, 2022 16:11
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Not to mention the kind of chaos that would cause in the EU for the countries immediately next to Ukraine like Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania. Germany most certainly gives a gently caress about the EU. It's almost like general western concern isn't actually just about mercantilism or whatever.
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Jan 23, 2022 16:13
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The USA, a country well known for having a policy of mercantilist prioritisation of exports over imports.
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Jan 23, 2022 16:20
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Paladinus posted:Putin is a status quo civil religion type of guy. During a recent meeting with the Tver governor, Putin was asked about plans to restore the church where the Orthodox bishop Philip II of Moscow was martyred by Ivan the Terrible's head of oprichniki Malyuta Skuratov. In response Putin remarked that it's just one version of the events, implying Skuratov's and by extension Ivan IV's innocence. Putin may or may not believe in God, but compared to Western religious conservatives, he deliberately tries to divorce his politics from his stated religious beliefs, and puts the nebulous Russian patriotism that encompasses all cultures and traditions in service of one motherland to the forefront. Whether Putin believes in God or not, he certainly believes in the right of the leader of Russia to kill those who too actively oppose him, so no surprise there.
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Jan 23, 2022 16:25
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://www.gov.uk/government/news/kremlin-plan-to-install-pro-russian-leadership-in-ukraine-exposed What's really funny about it is that Murayev who is described as a likely pro-Russian presidential candidate is under Russian sanctions for his past disagreements with much more openly pro-Russian Medvedchuk, who is a personal friend of Putin. If there was a plan to support Murayev, I suspect it was plan B or C, as his ratings are around 5% according to polls. There are more popular politicians from Medvedchuk's party, Opposition Platform, that Russia is more likely to (continue to) support. Opposition Platform already have a robust network of activists, friendly media, and importantly representation in Rada and in local governments, while Murayev doesn't have any of that now, really, as even his TV channel got recently closed.
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Jan 23, 2022 16:36
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Paladinus posted:What's really funny about it is that Murayev who is described as a likely pro-Russian presidential candidate is under Russian sanctions for his past disagreements with much more openly pro-Russian Medvedchuk, who is a personal friend of Putin. If there was a plan to support Murayev, I suspect it was plan B or C, as his ratings are around 5% according to polls. There are more popular politicians from Medvedchuk's party, Opposition Platform, that Russia is more likely to (continue to) support. Opposition Platform already have a robust network of activists, friendly media, and importantly representation in Rada and in local governments, while Murayev doesn't have any of that now, really, as even his TV channel got recently closed. Huh, that makes for a rathe bizarre piece of intel or “intel” then. I don’t know much about Murayev, but had forgotten to ask if anyone here knows, so thanks for this write-up. If this is a real plan, I wonder if it’s maybe some chess play with the entirety of Opposition Platform already being under SBU surveillance as harbouring the obvious candidates.
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Jan 23, 2022 16:47
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3 x USAF C130J HKY729/731/732 to Tallin Estonia ""Russia warns that it will not tolerate if Kyiv and the West go on a provocation in Donbass and attack Russians - head of delegation in Vienna Gavrilov "" ""Video from Dover AFB released by Pentagon showing loading of 100+ Javelin ATGM's along with other weapons and ammo that arrived in Kyiv last night. The Javelin weapons was seemingly more discrete within the delivery "" "" Half a dozen of these types of reports. huge uptick in US supply flights to Ukraine. "" This is not a bluff. Not to say the invasion is 100% On but the likelihood is getting higher by the day it seems. My hope is the Russian army is soundly defeated by Ukraine and is thrown into a crisis of existence.
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Jan 23, 2022 17:37
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Alchenar posted:The USA, a country well known for having a policy of mercantilist prioritisation of exports over imports. If you're talking yourself out of thinking arms sales are a big US priority, you're in too deep.
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Jan 23, 2022 17:40
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They found some hobos behind the dumpster to be respected leaders of the DNR/LNR so scanning the political area for anyone dumb enough to become Yanukovich2.0 is believable
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Jan 23, 2022 18:26
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Flayer posted:On the other hand you can't expect Germany to support American geopolitical aims at the expense of domestic German ones. The reason the US cares about the Ukrainian issue is not because "Russia bad" it's because expanding NATO and NATO allies expands the American arms market and ultimately expands American mercantilist interests. American cultural hegemony is the goal. From a German perspective that is always going to be a secondary concern compared to their own interests and while there is of course some alignment with America there's no point damaging relations with Russia over the issue of Russian/Ukrainian relations that really has very little effect on Germany whatever way it goes. And yeah, if a scaled up repeat of the Syrian refugee crisis happened it would gently caress so hard with the EU, which is definitely not in Germany's interest either. Now you might say that was exacerbated by Islamophobia, but I doubt a warm welcome would be in store if something of a similar scale happened now, since we've ratcheted up xenophobia since then. Not like it'd be hard to come up with some reason or other to hate refugees, I'm sure all kinds of conspiracies about Russian agents traveling as fake refugees could spring up. Or, depending on the economic impact/the target audience, blaming the refugees for the war and the economic disruption, since they could've just surrendered to Russia and everything would be fine.
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Jan 23, 2022 18:43
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Flayer posted:On the other hand you can't expect Germany to support American geopolitical aims at the expense of domestic German ones. The reason the US cares about the Ukrainian issue is not because "Russia bad" it's because expanding NATO and NATO allies expands the American arms market and ultimately expands American mercantilist interests. American cultural hegemony is the goal. From a German perspective that is always going to be a secondary concern compared to their own interests and while there is of course some alignment with America there's no point damaging relations with Russia over the issue of Russian/Ukrainian relations that really has very little effect on Germany whatever way it goes. So you think this is just going to be over for Germany, after Ukraine has been occupied? We just gonna sit this one out and then everything will go back to being like in the good old times? The constantly escalating aggressions from Russia (cyber attacks, public assassinations, military provocations, Lukashenko's hybrid warfare using refugees, abducting European airliners, support of neo Nazi organisations, state funded distribution of fake news, large scale troll farms, etc.) is just gonna stop and not continue to get worse? I don't know why Russia is doing this now(they certainly haven't publicly presented any sensible demands to anyone) but it doesn't seem to be over any practical issues. They got almost everything they wanted in 2014 already. Ukraine is perpetually barred from entering NATO and will remain neutral. Crimea is occupied. Donbas is occupied. The west is mostly fine with it and continues to trade with Russia. This new aggression seems to be more about vague nationalistic poo poo and internal politics and if it is, it's not gonna stop after Ukraine. We gonna have a very similar situation again soon if there are no diplomatic and economic consequences for them to keep doing it. Presenting consequences for imperialism is in the interest of Germany.
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Jan 23, 2022 19:26
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GABA ghoul posted:I don't know why Russia is doing this now(they certainly haven't publicly presented any sensible demands to anyone) but it doesn't seem to be over any practical issues. Conspiratiorist posted:As for what's to gain, I've repeated it a few times in the thread but maybe it bears concisely breaking it down: Additionally, Ukraine has been expanding its military capabilities rapidly, notably in the space of cruise missiles; their first domestic cruise missile system iirc is expected to enter service later this year. The Ukrainian ability to impose cost on Russian moves against them expands the longer they let this go.
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Jan 23, 2022 19:49
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GABA ghoul posted:I don't know why Russia is doing this now(they certainly haven't publicly presented any sensible demands to anyone) but it doesn't seem to be over any practical issues. They got almost everything they wanted in 2014 already. Ukraine is perpetually barred from entering NATO and will remain neutral. Crimea is occupied. Donbas is occupied. The west is mostly fine with it and continues to trade with Russia. This new aggression seems to be more about vague nationalistic poo poo and internal politics and if it is, it's not gonna stop after Ukraine. We gonna have a very similar situation again soon if there are no diplomatic and economic consequences for them to keep doing it. Presenting consequences for imperialism is in the interest of Germany. https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-68-putins-challenge-to I thought this was a pretty good look at why Russia's acting. I obviously don't expect many here to agree with HOW they're responding, but they aren't just arbitrarily deciding to create crisis after crisis for no reason. While all of us see Ukraine membership in NATO as a pipe dream for the foreseeable future, it's still something both it and NATO have continued moving toward in principle at least: "In early December 2019 the Ukrainian parliament adopted a resolution "regarding priority steps to ensure Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration and acquire Ukraine's full membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization." Nor was this simply an appeal from the Ukrainian side. According to Carnegie Moscow center’s Vladimir Frolov, the moment when Moscow’s strategic patience regarding the Zelensky government finally snapped was in June 2020, when NATO decided to grant Ukraine the status of Enhanced Opportunities Partner." While Russia's obviously made stronger demands, I really think they'd be more or less satisfied with a deal that sees Ukraine kept out of NATO, presumably without massive arms transfers as well, and that normalizes some sort of Russian control over Crimea even if outright recognition isn't realistic. It's hard for me to see what good some of the sanctions on operating in Crimea do other than immiserate the people living there anyway tbh, who are the ostensible victims of occupation, unless everyone's just okay with punishing them since many clearly do want to be part of Russia. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 19:55 on Jan 23, 2022 |
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Jan 23, 2022 19:49
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Sinteres posted:https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-68-putins-challenge-to Ukraine is never joining NATO so long as it has unresolved territorial issues, all of this is moot due to Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk. Russia knows this very well. Ukraine's only way of solving this would be to relinquish all claims to all of those (including the parts of Luhansk and Donetsk that it still controls). Something it drat well isn't doing anytime soon for many reasons. All these weird little honorary observer buddy things are meaningless. Not to mention all quite beside the point until you can explain why Russia is so panicked about a NATO Ukraine when there is already a NATO Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania, and has been for 15ish years.
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Jan 23, 2022 20:00
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Sinteres posted:While Russia's obviously made stronger demands, I really think they'd be more or less satisfied with a deal that sees Ukraine kept out of NATO, presumably without massive arms transfers as well, and that recognizes some sort of Russian control over Crimea even if outright recognition isn't realistic. An impossible demand. With way NATO is structured it could never offer a public ironclad guarantee like that, and any treaties with individual nations over such wouldn't be worth the paper they're written on. IMO, NATO couldn't even publicly agree to a delay without without loving up alliance cohesion (which I'm sure has already been offered under the table as part of the negotiations).
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Jan 23, 2022 20:01
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Grape posted:Ukraine is never joining NATO so long as it has unresolved territorial issues, all of this is moot due to Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk. Russia knows this very well. If Russia could do something about those, they obviously would, but it's too late. Ukraine's much bigger and far more closely tied to Russia in a lot of ways than the Baltics ever were too though. And if NATO membership isn't ever happening, and all the moves toward it are bullshit, saying so in order to bring stability to the region shouldn't pose any real cost. The unwillingness/inability to make the guarantee makes it seem like maybe NATO membership actually is something Russia should be concerned about after all.
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Jan 23, 2022 20:02
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Sinteres posted:And if NATO membership isn't ever happening, and all the moves toward it are bullshit, saying so in order to bring stability to the region shouldn't pose any real cost. The unwillingness/inability to make the guarantee makes it seem like maybe NATO membership actually is something Russia should be concerned about after all. This statement is you saying you don't actually believe that Ukraine can't join NATO, you aren't taking that seriously. Do you not understand how membership criteria works?
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Jan 23, 2022 20:04
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Grape posted:This statement is you saying you don't actually believe that Ukraine can't join NATO, you aren't taking that seriously. I do, and as I said in the previous post I don't think membership in the near future is likely, but as long as it's a goal for the US and some of the other relevant members of the alliance, closer and closer military cooperation and supply that Russia also doesn't want comes into play. As the piece mentions, the IMF gave unprecedented assistance to Ukraine despite not really qualifying, so we already know Western-dominated institutions are giving Ukraine priority.
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Jan 23, 2022 20:06
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Sinteres posted:I do, and as I said in the previous post I don't think membership in the near future is likely, but as long as it's a goal for the US and some of the other relevant members of the alliance, closer and closer military cooperation and supply that Russia also doesn't want comes into play. You talk about how USA wants Ukraine to join Nato, when in fact it's Ukraine that wants to join to protect themselves from Russia. How do you feel about the sovereignty of Ukraine? Are they eligible to apply for the membership of EU, Nato or any other organization? Or are they to be ruled from Moscow?
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Jan 23, 2022 20:10
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Nenonen posted:You talk about how USA wants Ukraine to join Nato, when in fact it's Ukraine that wants to join. How do you feel about the sovereignty of Ukraine? Are they eligible to apply for the membership of EU, Nato or any other organization? Or are they to be ruled from Moscow? It's both. Obviously countries can't draft the US into a nuclear guarantee without the US approving it. And as an American I don't think bringing another dependent into the alliance should be a priority worth this constant friction with Russia. I understand why people in Ukraine or even their neighbors might feel differently, but realistically NATO membership is a commitment by the US more than anything else. Instead of backing Ukraine into getting the best deal possible through diplomacy, the US has encouraged Ukraine to take a hard line without offering that commitment yet, and I think it's kind of the worst of both worlds for Ukraine even tbh. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 20:16 on Jan 23, 2022 |
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Jan 23, 2022 20:12
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Oh here we go again (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 23, 2022 20:13
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Snap Normandy 4 meeting in Paris on the 25th.
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Jan 23, 2022 20:19
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Sinteres posted:I do, and as I said in the previous post I don't think membership in the near future is likely, but as long as it's a goal for the US and some of the other relevant members of the alliance, closer and closer military cooperation and supply that Russia also doesn't want comes into play. As the piece mentions, the IMF gave unprecedented assistance to Ukraine despite not really qualifying, so we already know Western-dominated institutions are giving Ukraine priority. I'm not sure you really understand what NATO is though. For Ukraine to join in its occupied state, every electorate in every member nation would have to agree to be ready to go fight Russian forces in eastern Ukraine at a moment's notice and possibly drag Europe into total war with Russia and nuclear escalation. It's absurd and it's not gonna happen. Aside from mandatory dog poo poo eating day at public cafeteria's, that's probably the most unpopular policy idea ever envisioned.
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Jan 23, 2022 20:23
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GABA ghoul posted:I'm not sure you really understand what NATO is though. For Ukraine to join in its occupied state, every electorate in every member nation would have to agree to be ready to go fight Russian forces in eastern Ukraine at a moment's notice and possibly drag the world into total war with Russia and nuclear escalation. It's absurd and it's not gonna happen. Aside from mandatory dog poo poo eating day at public cafeteria's, that's probably the most unpopular policy idea ever envisioned. I do understand what NATO is, and think you're being a little dramatic, but yes the ongoing friction with Russia is a good reason not to admit Ukraine, so let's stop working toward that goal. Anyway just to be clear I'm not arguing for Russian invasion or why anyone should excuse it if Russia occupies Kiev or anything. I'm just saying I think Russia has rational issues of concern that can be resolved with diplomacy, and think it would be better to be proactive for peace instead of wringing our hands and saying "we'll avenge you with uh whatever sanctions Germany allows" after the fact. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 20:32 on Jan 23, 2022 |
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Jan 23, 2022 20:25
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Meanwhile Germany continues to be a disgrace: https://twitter.com/business/status/1485283447757320202
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Jan 23, 2022 20:27
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Sinteres posted:It's both. Obviously countries can't draft the US into a nuclear guarantee without the US approving it. And as an American I don't think bringing another dependent into the alliance should be a priority worth this constant friction with Russia. I understand why people in Ukraine or even their neighbors might feel differently, but realistically NATO membership is a commitment by the US more than anything else. Instead of backing Ukraine into getting the best deal possible through diplomacy, the US has encouraged Ukraine to take a hard line without offering that commitment yet, and I think it's kind of the worst of both worlds for Ukraine even tbh. You didn't answer my question. Do you think that Ukraine is a sovereign state that has the right to decide on its policies, including economic and defense coalitions? Or do you think that Moscow makes better decisions for them? If the latter, shouldn't Ukraine be outright annexed by Russia because a puppet state serves no purpose?
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Jan 23, 2022 20:36
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