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Seems like the US and Ukraine are a bunch of clowns and I hope Russia can restore order in those nations in short time and with the minimum amount of casualties (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 24, 2022 19:47
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TipTow posted:For real though, it seems like Turkey would be a major stakeholder in Russia cementing it's hold over the northern Black Sea coast. I've read basically zero about how Turkey feels in all this. Anybody have any insight into what, if anything, is Erdogan's position and potential plans? He has traditionally tried to be friendly to both sides, so he's likely to keep quiet.
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Jan 24, 2022 19:48
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TipTow posted:For real though, it seems like Turkey would be a major stakeholder in Russia cementing it's hold over the northern Black Sea coast. I've read basically zero about how Turkey feels in all this. Anybody have any insight into what, if anything, is Erdogan's position and potential plans? I don't have a tremendous amount of insight here, just that my perception is that Turkey's kind of taken their own position independent of NATO in opposing Russian intervention, with hopes to provide lots of drones and whatever else they can sell to Ukraine while trying not to rupture the relationship with Russia completely. It's really been interesting to watch those two countries circle each other over the last few years, where they're clearly competitors in a lot of ways, and obviously had a significant breach in their relationship a number of years ago with the plane shotdown, but have found a way to more or less co-exist since then despite their overlapping spheres of influence (or interest, if you don't like that term). The drone issue even pops up here and there in theorizing that they might be part of why Russia's interested in acting now before they're integrated into Ukraine's military, since they've proven to be extremely effective in Syria and in the second Karabakh war, but I don't think anyone really knows what Russia's own anti-drone capabilities are like since Armenia and Syria aren't exactly getting top grade equipment/don't have top grade personnel operating what they do have.
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Jan 24, 2022 19:52
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Sinteres posted:Winning hearts and minds by laying down sick burns on the country doing the most to try to prevent their invasion (short of trying diplomacy, anyway). Ukrainians get really insecure about the stereotype that their country is filled with monsters and they apparently will let this affect foreign policy during an existential threat to the nation
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Jan 24, 2022 19:54
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TipTow posted:For real though, it seems like Turkey would be a major stakeholder in Russia cementing it's hold over the northern Black Sea coast. I've read basically zero about how Turkey feels in all this. Anybody have any insight into what, if anything, is Erdogan's position and potential plans? Probably trying to look intimidating enough that Vlad doesn't get sudden ideas of moving capital to Tsargrad. Turkey and Russia have conflicting interests in the region but also common bogeymen in the west.
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Jan 24, 2022 19:56
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OddObserver posted:He has traditionally tried to be friendly to both sides, so he's likely to keep quiet. That Montreux Convention is really screwing Ukraine over right now. Perhaps the Ever Given could have another accident in the Bosporus and slow down Russia's amphibious invasion fleet. Turkey has a lot of power in this situation but I get why they're staying out of it, despite being part of NATO.
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Jan 24, 2022 19:57
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Re Turkey: Earlier this week, a inflation rate of 40% was touted as ‘good news’ for Turkey. They’ve got some serious domestic poo poo going on. https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/turkish-lira-dips-minister-sees-more-forex-converted-lira-2022-01-24/ How will this affect their activity WRT a potential coming conflict? gently caress if I know!
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Jan 24, 2022 20:01
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Dreissi posted:Re Turkey: Seems like a good reason to start some poo poo with Russia to deflect attention! Also keep in mind that it's not just that plane being poo poo down, there's the whole Armenia thing too which is a much more recent snub.
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Jan 24, 2022 20:04
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Endogamy p obviously wants turkey to become a great power in its own right vs regional power/America’s Muslim extension. He won’t stick to the American line on things just so he can be independent.
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Jan 24, 2022 20:17
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Reminder that for all the nuance of Turkey's position, it is a country that no-poo poo shot down a Russian fighter in 2015 for crossing the airspace line for a few seconds and convened a NATO Article 4 conference over it.
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Jan 24, 2022 20:24
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New to the thread, I have scanned the previous few pages but didn't find any posts discussing this aspect in detail so forgive me if it has been tackled before. What is an outcome that is acceptable to the current government and if it is drastically different from the population, what does the population see as an acceptable outcome without a military conflict? Right now one of the key demands made publicly by the Russians is that NATO needs to guarantee that Ukraine will not be allowed into the alliance. Regardless of the morality of whether such a demand should be met it seems this is the primary driver for Russian behavior in the region during the past decade plus. Would the Ukrainian government and its people realistically be willing to walk away from NATO if the Russians allowed for some sort if special economic partnership with the EU? Maybe not EU membership outright but benefits that emulate some degree of western integration that the Ukrainians see to desire? I ask because it seems clear to me that publicly renouncing NATO as an option for Ukraine would remove one of the biggest blocks thatbis immovable in this situation by the outside powers. Russia sees NATO expansion to its doorstep as unacceptable and NATO/US are now so knee deep that agreeing to exclude Ukraine from the alliance would be a severe loss of face after having already spent so much time publicly saying otherwise. Furthermore I would imagine that the Ukrainians should now view NATO with some degree of suspicion wrt to its willingness to fight on its behalf even if nominally given membership. The Germans outright appear to be rejecting any military confrontation and the US is also publicly saying it will not defend Ukraine with force. If two of the countries leading the alliance has effectively declared that Ukraine is not considered a core strategic interest to the alliance, in not so many words, what is the likelihood that Article 5 would actually be honored if they did get into NATO and the poo poo hit the fan with Russia in the future? The Donbas region is almost certainly lost for good as is the Crimea. Is there any thought in Kiev and the rest of the country that maybe they need to rethink what is or is not acceptable under the current circumstances?
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Jan 24, 2022 20:25
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Alchenar posted:Reminder that for all the nuance of Turkey's position, it is a country that no-poo poo shot down a Russian fighter in 2015 for crossing the airspace line for a few seconds and convened a NATO Article 4 conference over it. Yeah and NATO basically said hey cut it out, wtf are you trying to do here, and that's when Turkey decided they needed to find a way to live with Russia. Then obviously when Erdogan decided to blame America for the coup and campaign against the EU he needed something to triangulate with.
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Jan 24, 2022 20:26
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If 
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Jan 24, 2022 20:30
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MikeC posted:Furthermore I would imagine that the Ukrainians should now view NATO with some degree of suspicion wrt to its willingness to fight on its behalf even if nominally given membership. The Germans outright appear to be rejecting any military confrontation and the US is also publicly saying it will not defend Ukraine with force. If two of the countries leading the alliance has effectively declared that Ukraine is not considered a core strategic interest to the alliance, in not so many words, what is the likelihood that Article 5 would actually be honored if they did get into NATO and the poo poo hit the fan with Russia in the future? It's an interesting question. During the Cold War the US at least spent a lot of time trying to assure its allies that it would in fact fight for them if it came down to it, but since then it's basically been taken for granted by everyone that it would. Every now and then people will argue that NATO commitments to the Baltics aren't credible, and I'm somewhat inclined to agree, at least in the sense that we certainly wouldn't go nuclear over them, but there's enough credibility there that Russia can't really afford to risk it anyway, particularly with the introduction of tripwire forces since 2014. An argument for Ukraine being able to believe in the treaty commitment arguably even more than the Baltics though is that you can't overrun Ukraine in a day or two, whereas you might be able to do it to the Baltics, and it's obviously easier to send forces in to defend what's left than it is to send forces to reconquer lost ground. Plus I think if Ukraine got to the point of accession Russia would have already basically proven it's not willing to act enough that their threat would be far less credible than NATO's commitment. Anyway this is super Clancychat even for this thread, but I figured I'd take a stab at answering the question. The real reason Ukraine shouldn't have faith in NATO is that they realistically won't be joining in the first place.
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Jan 24, 2022 20:37
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Sinteres posted:The modern day Nero, making le epic trollface while Kiev burns. Let's ignore who set the fire
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Jan 24, 2022 20:40
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steinrokkan posted:Let's ignore who set the fire Nero didn't set the fire either, what's your point? Nobody's denying that Putin's responsible for an invasion. The point was that Ukraine's not in a position to be snarky about the US when it's begging for US assistance.
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Jan 24, 2022 20:42
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MikeC posted:New to the thread, I have scanned the previous few pages but didn't find any posts discussing this aspect in detail so forgive me if it has been tackled before. There’s no reason for them to find any acceptable outcomes in getting bullied, and ergo they don’t. And Ukrainians are not stupid enough to have ever thought there’s going to be NATO armies deploying to defend their territory directly, as they have no obligation to do so. Ukrainian path into NATO mirrors that of the Baltics - pay out of your own pocket for a model member state costume, and do the part for free when US decides to invade Suriname to stop their army from slaughtering bald eagles with white phosphorus. On that note though, Ukrainian membership of NATO is only for NATO to decide. Which will require unanimous vote of all existing members, and is subject to several rules that would currently prevent Ukraine from ever joining NATO, e.g., prospects may not have any territorial conflicts (Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk in Ukraine’s case).
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Jan 24, 2022 20:46
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The "NATO at our doorstep" security concerns are a bullshit ruse. A democratic state drifting towards the EU is an existential threat to the Putin regime by the virtue of showing that perfidious Slavs can have free elections, change of government and develop economically. In 2013 Maidan happened for ties to the EU and most people were against membership in NATO. Anything short of giving up sovereignty is a security threat to the Mafia state.
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Jan 24, 2022 20:47
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"There is no reason to panic": Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Olexiy Danilov called for calm in the face of a possible Russian invasion I guess we're getting all of our lethal aid back then WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 21:04 on Jan 24, 2022 |
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Jan 24, 2022 20:49
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Yeah, worth noting that Russia is pissed about Ukraine being "NATO on their doorstep" Well...  Among Russia's demands, its also that NATO must pull West no further than Easter Germany, which basically fucks any NATO member east of it, including Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania to name a few. Putin is making demands he KNOWS that will not be given. Because he wants to look strong in the face of a flagging Russian economy and US pressure not to invade Ukraine.
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Jan 24, 2022 20:51
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Sinteres posted:Nero didn't set the fire either, what's your point? Nobody's denying that Putin's responsible for an invasion. The point was that Ukraine's not in a position to be snarky about the US when it's begging for US assistance. The thing is that Americans get a lot of poo poo specifically for deciding that they can let themselves go in relationships that they largely build to their own benefit. Sovereign Ukraine is its explicit interest, yet at the same time Biden has the gall to publicly say that it may be delicately invaded.
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Jan 24, 2022 20:51
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cinci zoo sniper posted:The thing is that Americans get a lot of poo poo specifically for deciding that they can let themselves go in relationships that they largely build to their own benefit. Sovereign Ukraine is its explicit interest, yet at the same time Biden has the gall to publicly say that it may be delicately invaded. How is a sovereign Ukraine to my benefit as an American? I can't imagine how a potential hot war in Europe would raise my quality of life in the short term certainly and even in the long term is Ukraine offering land for settlers in the Donbas or what?
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Jan 24, 2022 21:02
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cinci zoo sniper posted:The thing is that Americans get a lot of poo poo specifically for deciding that they can let themselves go in relationships that they largely build to their own benefit. Sovereign Ukraine is its explicit interest, yet at the same time Biden has the gall to publicly say that it may be delicately invaded. It was immediately walked back with some pretty forceful language. If Ukraine doesn't like relying on Biden, the only other option is to basically capitulate to Putin, and griping about it isn't going to do any good. Like I said though, I think the tweet was a relatively mild rebuke, and I understand that Zelensky has his own domestic constituency to appeal to, so I don't think that alone was totally inexcusable or anything. His people should 100% not be talking about the US being a crime-ridden shithole though. I think sovereign Ukraine is pretty overrated as an American national security interest, and that the obsession with hobbling Russia is just another distraction from the shift to a Pacific strategy that the US is continually talking about but never actually managing to focus on. If you think moral considerations outweigh all of that, then fine, but in terms of tangible material benefit I don't see a lot there.
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Jan 24, 2022 21:04
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Terminal autist posted:How is a sovereign Ukraine to my benefit as an American? I can't imagine how a potential hot war in Europe would raise my quality of life in the short term certainly and even in the long term is Ukraine offering land for settlers in the Donbas or what? As an American, I would consider it to my benefit to live in a world full more of thriving democracies than authoritarian kleptocracies. The freedom of people around the world to choose their own governments is something I value, and something that I think our nation should value.
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Jan 24, 2022 21:05
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Terminal autist posted:How is a sovereign Ukraine to my benefit as an American? I can't imagine how a potential hot war in Europe would raise my quality of life in the short term certainly and even in the long term is Ukraine offering land for settlers in the Donbas or what? You won’t personally receive a $10,000 cheque from the government of Ukraine each 30 days that it remains sovereign, if this is a sincere question.
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Jan 24, 2022 21:06
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99% of the people on this planet wouldn't immediately, materially notice if Ukraine was put under a Moscow puppet regime, but the same could be said about pretty much any given atrocity, yet we probably should strive to prevent crimes against peace and humanity from occurring, in general. And in the long term, it's probably in the general interest of every single person on Earth that dictators and various thugs are kept in check and punished, at least once in a while.
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Jan 24, 2022 21:09
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Sinteres posted:It was immediately walked back with some pretty forceful language. If Ukraine doesn't like relying on Biden, the only other option is to basically capitulate to Putin, and griping about it isn't going to do any good. Like I said though, I think the tweet was a relatively mild rebuke, and I understand that Zelensky has his own domestic constituency to appeal to, so I don't think that alone was totally inexcusable or anything. His people should 100% not be talking about the US being a crime-ridden shithole though. We do agree entirely here apparently, so I’m not sure what was then all your handwringing about Zelenskyi’s tweet for. Sinteres posted:I think sovereign Ukraine is pretty overrated as an American national security interest, and that the obsession with hobbling Russia is just another distraction from the shift to a Pacific strategy that the US is continually talking about but never actually managing to focus on. If you think moral considerations outweigh all of that, then fine, but in terms of tangible material benefit I don't see a lot there. I do believe that US has relatively cheap, if not outright profitable, means to minimise the chances of Europe being destabilised via, e.g., gas interruptions, food shortages, or millions of refugees fleeing all-our war, which do not involve unnecessarily gifting Russia 40 million additional taxpayers. I hope the relevancy of stability in EEA to US domestic interests is not something that needs another paragraph.
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Jan 24, 2022 21:15
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https://twitter.com/_JakubJanda/status/1485630228341075973
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Jan 24, 2022 21:16
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https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1485706502186881028
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Jan 24, 2022 21:18
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Somaen posted:The "NATO at our doorstep" security concerns are a bullshit ruse. A democratic state drifting towards the EU is an existential threat to the Putin regime by the virtue of showing that perfidious Slavs can have free elections, change of government and develop economically. In 2013 Maidan happened for ties to the EU and most people were against membership in NATO. Anything short of giving up sovereignty is a security threat to the Mafia state. It is most certainly a security concern in the sense that, just like other powers, military force is one of the levers Russia can pull to compel other nations in the pursuit of her interests. Ceding strategically advantageous positions to their adversary coalition only limits their ability to wield it.
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Jan 24, 2022 21:19
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So this is gonna end with a bloody resistance to Russia and their puppets in Ukraine fueled with bullets and bodies by the central and eastern NATO countries, and a poo poo load more western NATO troops in Poland and the Baltics. I don’t see that as a win for anyone but I have a hard time seeing that as better than the status quo for Putin. It makes me wonder if suggestions that the eastern Ukraine separatists were about to fall are true.
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Jan 24, 2022 21:32
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I’m honestly beginning to think that there isn’t a secret agenda here and Putin might just not be as smart as everyone says he is.
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Jan 24, 2022 21:35
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https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1485597218719645699 Eastern Europe: Russia is a peaceful country surrounded by ceasefires
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Jan 24, 2022 21:40
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Why would he deploy 8500 troops if he declared no boots on Ukrainian soil? To prevent incursions into actual NATO states?
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Jan 24, 2022 21:42
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:I don’t see that as a win for anyone but I have a hard time seeing that as better than the status quo for Putin. It makes me wonder if suggestions that the eastern Ukraine separatists were about to fall are true. You mean the recent? That’s Russia setting up media environment for an easier false flag operation in the future, if they feel like doing it. Ukrainians are under very restrictive rules of engagement there, have been for years. If you talk about 2014, Ukrainian army did expectedly quickly encircle separatists and was beating them in every engagement, until Russian armed forces didn’t begin non-stop artillery fire over the border for long enough that separatists were able to “find”, you know, all those T-72 tank battalions post-Soviet cities tend to traditionally maintain crewed and ready for combat.
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Jan 24, 2022 21:43
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Grouchio posted:Why would he deploy 8500 troops if he declared no boots on Ukrainian soil? To prevent incursions into actual NATO states? Yes, local political leaders are understatedly uneasy about this whole situation, and have been requesting more U.S. forces deployed for weeks. Especially Poland, they’ve been asking for that for much longer and louder than, e.g., Baltics. Unconfirmed reports are circulating that NATO could be demoting up to 50k troops into Eastern European member states closest to Ukraine.
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Jan 24, 2022 21:46
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Grouchio posted:Why would he deploy 8500 troops if he declared no boots on Ukrainian soil? To prevent incursions into actual NATO states?
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Jan 24, 2022 21:48
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Grouchio posted:Why would he deploy 8500 troops if he declared no boots on Ukrainian soil? To prevent incursions into actual NATO states? Eastern Europe does not explicitly mean Ukraine. So yes he does mean deployments to existing NATO states. If they decide to put substantial troops into Ukraine we will not be guessing about it, that would be an extremely aggressive move by the US and they would be sending in a LOT of troops and equipment, and they would be extremely clear to Russia about that change of position, because they don't actually want Russia to accidentally shoot up a US battalion.
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Jan 24, 2022 21:49
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Grouchio posted:Why would he deploy 8500 troops if he declared no boots on Ukrainian soil? To prevent incursions into actual NATO states? For now, he’s placing troops on alert, so that they can be readily deployed if needed.
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Jan 24, 2022 21:49
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Grouchio posted:Why would he deploy 8500 troops if he declared no boots on Ukrainian soil? To prevent incursions into actual NATO states? To soothe the Baltic states & Poland, to prepare for Russian escalation & to not look weak.
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Jan 24, 2022 21:50
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