|
Sinteres posted:Does cinci's new position come with any new thread specific guidelines, or is this more about having someone who posts here regularly to babysit the thread with normal D&D guidelines? Basically, is anything changing other than a new set of eyes? Nothing thread specific. I’ll obviously “moderate” to my own vision of a decent forums thread, in addition to D&D rules, but I’d prefer to interfere as little as possible into genuine discourse. Basically, don’t wish death upon people and don’t publish here your 37 post thesis about economic realities of Indonesia colonising Jupiter in 2074.
|
#
?
Jan 26, 2022 20:32
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 14, 2024 22:14 |
|
|
Current happenings are liable to push Indojupiterian plans back a bit but thank you for your promise
|
|
#
?
Jan 26, 2022 20:47
|
|
|
Ukraine has to counterbalance the fact that the local great power has its army on the doorstep while the superpower on its side has a lot of hot air and not much else. If Zelenskiy is all buddy buddy with Biden that increases the threat from the army on the doorstep for no material gain since there is no chance to join NATO at the moment.
|
|
#
?
Jan 26, 2022 21:02
|
|
|
Flayer posted:Ukraine has to counterbalance the fact that the local great power has its army on the doorstep while the superpower on its side has a lot of hot air and not much else. If Zelenskiy is all buddy buddy with Biden that increases the threat from the army on the doorstep for no material gain since there is no chance to join NATO at the moment. He was criticizing Biden for not standing up to Russia enough, he's not balancing between them.
|
|
#
?
Jan 26, 2022 21:09
|
|
|
Russian embassy in Georgia got trolled. https://twitter.com/propeertys/status/1486429802957529090?s=21
|
|
#
?
Jan 26, 2022 21:10
|
|
|
Putin's deputy Kozak: next meeting of "Normandy Four" in 2 weeks in Berlin. Main issue - different interpretation of Minsk agreements, but all parties unconditionally agreed on ceasefire
|
|
#
?
Jan 26, 2022 21:26
|
|
|
Curious what happens politically if, after all Germany's attempts to moderate the European response to Russia, it cuts off the gas anyways
QuoProQuid fucked around with this message at 22:06 on Jan 26, 2022 |
|
#
?
Jan 26, 2022 22:03
|
|
|
QuoProQuid posted:Curious what happens politically if, after all Germany's attempts to moderate the European response to Russia, it cuts off the gas anyways Pretty much all the russian gas that has been cut off so far has been replaced by liquid natural gas by sheer necessity, causing a worldwide shortage in the process, so...
|
|
#
?
Jan 26, 2022 22:07
|
|
|
QuoProQuid posted:Curious what happens politically if, after all Germany's attempts to moderate the European response to Russia, it cuts off the gas anyways Seems like at this point almost all of Europe(RIP Finland)has enough gas reserves to get through this winter. Next winter would be really tough though. We would need massive investments to make the grid more compatible with LNG and then get more LNG from somewhere. Reactivate all the mothballed and standby coal plants and do some rationing for industrial and commercial gas use. If Russia still has the gas turned off by next winter, we probably took a very dark turn somewhere because permanently losing the European gas market is basically suicide for them. They need us probably even more than we need them. Mid to long term, we can get gas from somewhere else, but they don't have any way to balance their state budget without us.
|
|
#
?
Jan 26, 2022 22:55
|
|
|
GABA ghoul posted:Seems like at this point almost all of Europe(RIP Finland)has enough gas reserves to get through this winter. Next winter would be really tough though. We would need massive investments to make the grid more compatible with LNG and then get more LNG from somewhere. Reactivate all the mothballed and standby coal plants and do some rationing for industrial and commercial gas use. West Virgini's back baby! The true american objective revealed!
|
|
#
?
Jan 26, 2022 23:02
|
|
|
steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 23:10 on Jan 26, 2022 |
|
#
?
Jan 26, 2022 23:07
|
|
|
GABA ghoul posted:(RIP Finland) While this is the general sentiment from Germania towards Finland since Gavrilo, what did you mean here?
|
|
#
?
Jan 26, 2022 23:10
|
|
|
Rappaport posted:While this is the general sentiment from Germania towards Finland since Gavrilo, what did you mean here? The last study I read on this showed Finland as the most vulnerable. 100% reliance on Russia and little reserves. They would be the first to fall after only a month or so
|
|
#
?
Jan 26, 2022 23:43
|
|
|
Rappaport posted:While this is the general sentiment from Germania towards Finland since Gavrilo, what did you mean here?  https://tietokayttoon.fi/documents/...+transition.pdf
|
|
#
?
Jan 26, 2022 23:44
|
|
|
Isn't Finland now connected to the Baltics by the estonia-finland interconnector, which would let it be supplied by the storage facility in Latvia, which in turn can be refilled by the Lithuanian LNG station? In addition to that the Polish-Lithuanian gas pipe should be operational in the summer fully integrating the region to the European gas market quote:fwiw cinci zoo sniper is now thread idiot czar hooray to the good czar, boo to the bad boyars
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 00:10
|
|
|
Somaen posted:Isn't Finland now connected to the Baltics by the estonia-finland interconnector, which would let it be supplied by the storage facility in Latvia, which in turn can be refilled by the Lithuanian LNG station? While the EE->FI interconnect had an average load of 1% in 2021, the plan may not be as sustainable as you would hope. 
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 00:24
|
|
|
If the ultimate conclusion to all this ends up being Ukraine's commitment to actually following the Minsk protocols [under threat of invasion elsewise] then I dont see how this doesnt end up being a win for Russia; for the price of having soldiers run laps by the border, they've demonstrated Europe's reliance on Russia's resources, shown US security assurances to be feckless at best and counterproductive at worst, and either secured peace for Donbass or provided casus belli for seizing a land bridge in the future if the Ukrainian batallions can't keep it in their pants. I'm open to an alternative interpretation, though. Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 00:49 on Jan 27, 2022 |
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 00:40
|
|
|
 Getting rid of Nuclear and replacing the majority of that with Natural Gas was a terrible idea.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 00:48
|
|
|
If diplomacy succeeds, I think it'll be largely because the US was excluded, both because the US is the least willing to actually negotiate, and because Russia is less willing to be seen making compromises with the US. I know secret protocols deciding the fate of Eastern Europe are generally a bad idea, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Putin gets some kind of quiet guarantee from Germany on NATO enlargement if there's a peaceful resolution. Germany's made it pretty clear that they aren't interested in the first place, and have been reluctantly dragged into half-heartedly joining the NATO position because they don't want to be the bad guy, but without the gun to Ukraine's head they can presumably be a reliable vote against expansion. Obviously that doesn't stop other NATO countries from making bilateral arms deals or agreements with Ukraine though.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 00:52
|
|
|
Sinteres posted:If diplomacy succeeds, I think it'll be largely because the US was excluded, both because the US is the least willing to actually negotiate, and because Russia is less willing to be seen making compromises with the US. I know secret protocols deciding the fate of Eastern Europe are generally a bad idea, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Putin gets some kind of quiet guarantee from Germany on NATO enlargement if there's a peaceful resolution. Germany's made it pretty clear that they aren't interested in the first place, and have been reluctantly dragged into half-heartedly joining the NATO position because they don't want to be the bad guy, but without the gun to Ukraine's head they can presumably be a reliable vote against expansion. Uh....given the demands they've made, even without the US being there, nobody is gonna negotiate on them.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 00:54
|
|
|
Germany has it all figured out. Feed Eastern Europe to the woodchipper in case of bear. Feed Southern Europe to the poor house in case of debt. They're lucky the UK has elected to be the obvious rear end in a top hat of Western Europe, because they're gunning hard for the position.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 00:54
|
|
|
CommieGIR posted:Uh....given the demands they've made, even without the US being there, nobody is gonna negotiate on them. I don't think Russia's demands are their actual position, or why would they even bother with the four party talks with Germany, France and Ukraine?
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 00:56
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:While the EE->FI interconnect had an average load of 1% in 2021, the plan may not be as sustainable as you would hope. The graph is electricity, right? It should get worse in some sort of blockade situation with the need to start up gas power plants for electricity but we have working power lines from Sweden and Poland, with gas it's harder since until the pipeline to Poland is complete we're isolated from the EU system The Lithuanian LNG terminal was constructed with extra capacity in mind, according to wiki it's 4 bcm/y, LT consumes 2.3, LV 1.3, EE 0.5 and FI 2.5. Not great but unless Incukalns is empty I think it's survivable. Balticconnector is not used previously but looks like it was built with the total cut-off scenario in mind with a capacity of 2.6bcm/y Total rear end to google these values with the different energy units everyone uses
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 00:58
|
|
|
Grape posted:Germany has it all figured out. How is negotiating peace the rear end in a top hat position?
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 01:00
|
|
|
If diplomacy succeeds it will be because the US beat the putin-understanders in line for a united position on sanctions to make war too costly economically and militarily for Russia to be off the table as a solution for a dying empire that has no soft-power levers over Ukraine anymore
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 01:09
|
|
|
Somaen posted:The graph is electricity, right? It should get worse in some sort of blockade situation with the need to start up gas power plants for electricity but we have working power lines from Sweden and Poland, with gas it's harder since until the pipeline to Poland is complete we're isolated from the EU system Yeah, this is electricity. Gas blockade would be guaranteed to hit worse than it appears from this data, but at least we wouldn’t be completely hosed, just mostly hosed. Kindest Forums User posted:How is negotiating peace the rear end in a top hat position? Their argument is that Germany may sell Ukraine out. Appeasing publicly stated Russian demands, if you ask me, doesn’t quite qualify as “negotiating peace”. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 01:12 on Jan 27, 2022 |
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 01:09
|
|
|
Sinteres posted:I don't think Russia's demands are their actual position, or why would they even bother with the four party talks with Germany, France and Ukraine? Honestly? I suspect the goal is to offer concessions on natural gas and push them towards neutering NATO. This is a long state goal of Putin.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 01:15
|
|
|
Olof Scholz why is your diplomacy so scheiße?
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 01:18
|
|
|
CommieGIR posted:Uh....given the demands they've made, even without the US being there, nobody is gonna negotiate on them.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 01:24
|
|
|
OddObserver posted:I am not sure how anyone is supposed to negotiate with Russia given they blatantly don't follow the agreements they signed? Pretty much, Russia is about as bad as the US when it comes to just tossing treaties and agreements aside.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 01:26
|
|
|
OddObserver posted:I am not sure how anyone is supposed to negotiate with Russia given they blatantly don't follow the agreements they signed? This could be one of those clues that explain why the Russian Federation under Putin's leadership has lost a lot of that soft power!
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 01:26
|
|
|
Somaen posted:If diplomacy succeeds it will be because the US beat the putin-understanders in line for a united position on sanctions to make war too costly economically and militarily for Russia to be off the table as a solution for a dying empire that has no soft-power levers over Ukraine anymore And if it fails?
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 01:39
|
|
|
Conspiratiorist posted:And if it fails? Bunker gnome lashes out by annexing Belarus
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 01:41
|
|
|
OddObserver posted:I am not sure how anyone is supposed to negotiate with Russia given they blatantly don't follow the agreements they signed? Treaties are followed by nations only until it is no longer beneficial for one or the other. Nations abide by treaties because they codify a core interest they want in exchange for a core interest the other side wants. Every country breaks agreements the moment the original calculus that lead to the agreement being signed in the first place is no longer valid. Anytime you as an observer sees nation signs an agreement that on the surface appears to gain nothing for them, you know it is just a polite lie or you aren't seeing the full picture. Or if a country continues to abide by an agreement of the same nature, you know one or more of their core interests is not what it appears to be or that the price of breaking the agreement risks other core interests that are more valuable. This happens between countries with friendly relations, hostile relations, or middling relations. It happens between the full range of democratic and open societies to the most brutal totalitarian ones. There isn't a single country on earth that will continue to honor an agreement that is underwater in terms of benefits to core interests purely on a moral basis. At the end of the day, if the NATO/EU is serious about Ukrainian sovereignty, it better sit down and determine what Putin actually needs to extract out of this or actually prepare countermeasures so painful that Putin is willing to suppress this core interest to protect the one that the NATO/EU can hit if it isn't willing to send 5 NATO divisions to Ukraine to physically make an invasion/incursion/what-have-you impossible.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 01:43
|
|
|
The problem with the list of demands is they outweigh the benefit of having independent ukraine. I mean if their only demand was that Ukraine is never allowed into nato, we would probably concede.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 01:57
|
|
|
Yeah; if Germany rolls back NATO to not include the Baltics or Poland the EU is over. Which is a core demand
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 01:59
|
|
|
WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:The problem with the list of demands is they outweigh the benefit of having independent ukraine. I mean if their only demand was that Ukraine is never allowed into nato, we would probably concede. The maximalist nature of Russia's initial demands and the fact that they haven't seemed to have softened on them are two factors that suggest to me that this entire thing was decided a long time ago. I am wrong all of the time though and I certainly hope that I am wrong about this.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 02:01
|
|
|
Giggle Goose posted:The maximalist nature of Russia's initial demands and the fact that they haven't seemed to have softened on them are two factors that suggest to me that this entire thing was decided a long time ago. I am wrong all of the time though and I certainly hope that I am wrong about this. Well it's been about 10 years since crimea, and our response to that was fairly weak. I'm sure there's a part of Putin that regrets not just completely taking everything east of the dniper in the first go
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 02:02
|
|
|
WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Well it's been about 10 years since crimea, and our response to that was fairly weak. I'm sure there's a part of Putin that regrets not just completely taking everything east of the dniper in the first go Looking back, it does seem pretty bizarre that they didn't even take Mariupol. I know they were going for a halfway plausible deniability thing, and maybe just hoped Ukraine would collapse or cave at some point after a demonstration of their helplessness, but boy did that not work if it was the goal. I guess it was all pretty haphazardly reactive to seeing an anti-Russian revolution succeed in Kiev though, so it wasn't the culmination of a master strategy or anything. Maybe at the time they thought trading the Donbas back to get some kind of recognition for Crimea would have been possible, idk. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 02:27 on Jan 27, 2022 |
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 02:25
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 14, 2024 22:14 |
|
|
WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:The problem with the list of demands is they outweigh the benefit of having independent ukraine. I mean if their only demand was that Ukraine is never allowed into nato, we would probably concede. Their demand is nobody east of Eastern Germany can participate in NATO. That's a no go.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2022 02:30
|
|