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Orthanc6 posted:There is a plausible future for Germany being vulnerable to Russia, but the only way I can see is that the US has splintered or in some other way collapsed and that's how NATO would fail. But how, when, and the odds of that happening no one has a clue about, so for the time being it'd be meaningless to worry about. I disagree. It is plausible that trumpian idea for USA to withdraw from european defense might happen.
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 05:19 |
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# ? Jun 13, 2024 05:21 |
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Sekenr posted:I disagree. It is plausible that trumpian idea for USA to withdraw from european defense might happen. Yeah if there was catastrophic state collapse in the US or something Russia could probably establish its old sphere in about a year. There are only like 4000 operational tanks in the EU and most of the countries besides Germany are getting weaker by the year.
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 05:26 |
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Sekenr posted:Well, thank god at least Germany is safe for now Yes. Everything is always in a state of "for now". That's how the world works. There are no guarantees in perpetuity and the calculus changes decade by decade, year by year, day by day. Powers rise and fall and those who either cannot or choose not to have great power aspirations must bend with the wind as it comes. If the US breaks down under the weight of the culture wars and once again turns its sights inwards and abandons its status as a great power, everyone in Europe and around the world will have to revaluate where it stands. If Putin was to keel over dead tomorrow and the Russians enter another bout of infighting and self-introspection, you can be sure the Ukrainians would be welcomed into EU and NATO with open arms.
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 05:28 |
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:
The data posted ITT is misleading because it lumps gas and all oil together. In reality gas accounts only for 5% of Finland's energy use. And the gas network only stretches across main cities in the south, which don't have that extreme winters. And who said that Finland has given up on nuclear? The fifth plant is about to enter use this summer.
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 05:33 |
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FishBulbia posted:Yeah if there was catastrophic state collapse in the US or something Russia could probably establish its old sphere in about a year. There are only like 4000 operational tanks in the EU and most of the countries besides Germany are getting weaker by the year. Why does the USA need to collapse to withdraw from europe? MikeC posted:Yes. Everything is always in a state of "for now". That's how the world works. There are no guarantees in perpetuity and the calculus changes decade by decade, year by year, day by day. Powers rise and fall and those who either cannot or choose not to have great power aspirations must bend with the wind as it comes. If the US breaks down under the weight of the culture wars and once again turns its sights inwards and abandons its status as a great power, everyone in Europe and around the world will have to revaluate where it stands. If Putin was to keel over dead tomorrow and the Russians enter another bout of infighting and self-introspection, you can be sure the Ukrainians would be welcomed into EU and NATO with open arms. Is there a point here other than futility of everything? This post is just a bunch of white noise
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 05:36 |
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Sekenr posted:Is there a point here other than futility of everything? This post is just a bunch of white noise I think the point is that in these far fetched scenarios where the security of current NATO members would be called into question Ukraine would be hosed anyway, so what's the point of drawing in these hypotheticals for a discussion about whether or not NATO should back Ukraine to the hilt now.
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 05:49 |
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Sekenr posted:Why does the USA need to collapse to withdraw from europe? The point is to refute your "for now" post as equally just a bunch of white noise. Any treaty, any agreement, any arrangement is always "for now". So just because Germany can buy entente with Russia "for now" by sacrificing Ukrainian sovereignty and aspirations, doesn't mean that it isn't in their best long-term interests to do so.
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 06:12 |
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Kinda digging the coalition of the willing this time. We have German helmet french laundry and UK advisors wearing trainers against the largest force maneuver in the last 80 years of European history
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 07:18 |
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Kinda digging the coalition of the willing this time. We have German helmet french laundry and UK advisors wearing trainers against the largest force maneuver in the last 80 years of European history Don't forget a few dozen American and Canadian special forces to GTFO embassy staff if this goes down, and doing their best not to become collateral damage that leads to WW3.
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 09:12 |
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The level of military response really shows how much of a threat the evil perfidious NATO really is to poow wittwe Russia
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 09:22 |
I’d like to chime in about NATO expanding into former Warsaw Pact and Baltics. I don’t know the WP details, but Baltics basically bankrolled their own armies from 0 in early 90s, paid for Danish advisors, and then sent them dressed in Adidas and hand-me-down equipment to die Balkans to buy ourselves a shot at joining NATO, which was a day 1 priority when the Soviet Union fell. I find it rather disingenuous to bring us up as an example of NATO actively encroaching upon implied passive Russian hinterlands. Here’s an informative thread on this: https://twitter.com/profpaulpoast/status/1484883749527506946 In other news: https://twitter.com/annmarie/status/1486137108964200451 cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 09:57 on Jan 27, 2022 |
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 09:55 |
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:
This is just wrong. Finland produces 30% of its electricity with nuclear power and just completed building a new reactor. After it is ramped up to full production it should provide 14% more.
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 10:45 |
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bad_fmr posted:This is just wrong. Finland produces 30% of its electricity with nuclear power and just completed building a new reactor. After it is ramped up to full production it should provide 14% more. I was just coming to post this. I know this thread is big on speculating about the future at the moment but it would be great if basic facts were correct when doing so. Finland is actually kinda on the warpath inside the EU at the moment to get nuclear rated as green energy, against (mostly) Germany's insistence that it's anything but. We're partly in this entire mess because Germany's entrenched anti-nuclear stance and certain countries are getting fed up. Interesting times!
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 11:25 |
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The strong coal lobby in Germany and also Poland etc. are also to blame. Why risk it with unpredictable Atomkraft when we already organic coal dug from clean nature?
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 12:33 |
https://www.axios.com/nord-stream-2-pipeline-russia-ukraine-invasion-us-fff2a39c-7090-4539-8fbe-84a8c07c641b.htmlquote:The U.S. will make sure the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany won't go ahead if Russian troops invade Ukraine, State Department spokesperson Ned Price told NPR on Wednesday.
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 12:34 |
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lol how would US do that? by attacking german infrastructure?
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 12:36 |
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Truga posted:lol how would US do that? by attacking german infrastructure? By disconnecting Germany from SWIFT.
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 12:39 |
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US warships in the baltics cutting up underwater
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 12:53 |
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https://mobile.twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1486637503713001477 So the stage of "эй лох, гарантии безопасности есть? А если найду??" is over Now rebuked in a polite way the gopnik is going to evaluate if it's worth to escalate further and threaten violence, attack the smaller kid he was picking on before or retreat pretending he was joking
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 12:56 |
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Truga posted:lol how would US do that? by attacking german infrastructure?
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 13:09 |
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I'm not sure the official NATO response was mentioned here :https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_191254.htmquote:So today, NATO has conveyed our written proposals to Russia. A pretty firm 'okay if you want to talk about forces deployed in Eastern Europe, here's our starting point'.
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 13:10 |
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steinrokkan posted:The level of military response really shows how much of a threat the evil perfidious NATO really is to poow wittwe Russia Yeah it’s Russia’s fault the west is a bunch of degenerate failing nations (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 13:13 |
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meanwhile, putin is pivoting towards crypto mining: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/putin-russia-has-advantages-in-bitcoin-mining (it's also on bloomberg but paywalled there)
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 13:17 |
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Regarde Aduck posted:Yeah it’s Russia’s fault the west is a bunch of degenerate failing nations
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 13:18 |
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Nenonen posted:The strong coal lobby in Germany and also Poland etc. are also to blame. Why risk it with unpredictable Atomkraft when we already organic coal dug from clean nature? Green coal Truga posted:lol how would US do that? by attacking german infrastructure? Sanctions. Gazprom requires a subsidiary company in the EU to run the little bit of pipeline that is inside the EU and the US just threatens any company that deals with it with sanctions. No company with global holdings would want to touch that poo poo with a ten foot pole
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 13:20 |
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Now we're talking. Assuming that Putin hasn't gone completely senile, he still has to pay some attention to Russia's oligarchs and their interests. https://twitter.com/Andy_Scollick/status/1486664795180961795
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 13:23 |
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Well that's not greatquote:A Ukrainian National Guard soldier opened fire on security guards at a military factory in central Ukraine for reasons unknown, killing five people and wounding five others before fleeing. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/27/soldier-opens-fire-kills-five-troops-at-ukraine-military I wonder if that's just a nut job, a sympathizer, or one of those saboteurs that are supposedly on the ground.
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 13:23 |
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nurmie posted:meanwhile, putin is pivoting towards crypto mining: I am sure they are well aware of its advantages when it comes to money laundering Anyway, I am looking forward to NFTs of Putin kissing boy's belly issued by Russian Federation
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 13:24 |
Alchenar posted:I'm not sure the official NATO response was mentioned here :https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_191254.htm It wasn't, thank you for bringing it up. Looks solid to me as well.
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 13:27 |
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Yep, seems reasonable to ask that russia stop occupying foreign territory if they want NATO not to deploy troops in member states.
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 13:29 |
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Panzeh posted:Yep, seems reasonable to ask that russia stop occupying foreign territory if they want NATO not to deploy troops in member states.
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 13:45 |
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Really good interview with a Russian energy expert https://newtimes.ru/articles/detail/208000 https://newtimes-ru.translate.goog/articles/detail/208000?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp quote:
He also points out how exports to Europe are over a 150 bcm while to China it's a measly 37 Somaen fucked around with this message at 14:10 on Jan 27, 2022 |
# ? Jan 27, 2022 14:08 |
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Dwesa posted:it sounds like it would be joint US-German action yeah i'm sure germany is just gonna let their citizens freeze to death for US to teach russia a lesson lmao
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 14:12 |
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Truga posted:yeah i'm sure germany is just gonna let their citizens freeze to death for US to teach russia a lesson lmao You should actually read articles before posting about them. Germany also seems to support this threat: quote:Emily Haber, Germany’s ambassador to Washington, appeared to endorse a hardening of the position in comments on Thursday. She noted on Twitter that “the US and Germany jointly declared last summer: if Russia uses energy as a weapon or if there is another violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty, Russia will have to pay a high price.”
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 14:19 |
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I think many people in this thread kind of ignore that though Russia's demands are treated as a precondition for not invading Ukraine, Russia doesn't actually even hint to that. Because even without hinting to it, Russian rouble is in free fall despite growing oil prices. Today, after getting a written response from US, Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry again highlighted that Russia 'sees the very thought of a war with Ukraine as unconscionable'.
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 14:32 |
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Paladinus posted:I think many people in this thread kind of ignore that though Russia's demands are treated as a precondition for not invading Ukraine, Russia doesn't actually even hint to that. Because even without hinting to it, Russian rouble is in free fall despite growing oil prices. Country that has, without any doubt, actually engaged in a limited war with Ukraine in the past 6 years: "the very thought of a war with Ukraine is unconscionable"
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 14:37 |
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GABA ghoul posted:Country that has, without any doubt, actually engaged in a limited war with Ukraine in the past 6 years: "the very thought of a war with Ukraine is unconscionable" It's clear that everyone is talking about an open large scale invasion.
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 14:40 |
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Paladinus posted:It's clear that everyone is talking about an open large scale invasion. Just a small war, as a treat
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 14:45 |
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SilvergunSuperman posted:Just a small war, as a treat Well, that's basically what they got in 2014, and it was basically responsibility free till they murdered a bunch of Dutch kids.
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 14:48 |
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# ? Jun 13, 2024 05:21 |
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my certainty that there isn't going to be a war has just risen from 99% to 99.99% i'm even fairly sure there won't even be any D/LNR shenanigans (barring the usual artillery duels and maaaaaybe a skirmish or two on a sub-battalion level at worst) as i have said time and time again, literally no one in the region wants, needs, or can afford an actual war breaking out right now
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# ? Jan 27, 2022 15:25 |