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cinci zoo sniper posted:Yep, that’s the one. Typically served in a small pot right out of the oven, as an entree. There are even special, uh, juliennettes?  In more modern eateries they often cook and serve them in metal ones like this. 
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Feb 5, 2022 16:21
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Paladinus posted:If we're talking baked chicken with mushrooms and cheese, it's definitely a thing in Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine. Hmm. I don't recognize the name or the dish (though I think my mom isn't into mushrooms). I am from Odessa; Slava is from Moldova (Transnistria, even, he is a refugee from that war, IIRC), so maybe that's more of a northern thing?
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Feb 5, 2022 16:23
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Hm this does’t look familiar. There’s a strong demarcation on the Polish-Ukrainian border, where, when you go east, “things served in the vessel they were baked in” territory starts. No, bigos doesn’t count.
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Feb 5, 2022 16:39
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OddObserver posted:Hmm. I don't recognize the name or the dish (though I think my mom isn't into mushrooms). I am from Odessa; Slava is from Moldova (Transnistria, even, he is a refugee from that war, IIRC), so maybe that's more of a northern thing? I had one in Kyiv in a regular food court. It's definitely a Russian/Soviet thing that was popularised in other Soviet countries, so might be less popular in some regions.
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Feb 5, 2022 16:40
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Paladinus posted:There are even special, uh, juliennettes? Those are what I mean, yeah, sorry. Actual ceramic pot julienne is something I’ve had maybe once.
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Feb 5, 2022 16:47
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only the military borsch ration topic things are not looking good https://twitter.com/kofmanmichael/status/1490020362477834243?s=21 analysts have said these are what the final preparations will look like, if there will be an escalation, it is going to happen soon.
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Feb 5, 2022 18:59
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A single Western media outlet makes a common mistake: what is wrong with the West?! Can't they see this escalates this extremely tense situation??  Russia amasses troops on the border over the period of several months and makes unreasonable demands: Why, this is just a state exercising its right to reposition its forces within its own borders! Nothing worth making GBS threads your pants over 
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Feb 5, 2022 19:11
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Yeah a couple of weeks ago I saw a tweet that I thought was pretty pertinent - that commentary has been pretty consistently split between policy wonks saying "this is posturing for negotiations, it's be okay" and military wonks saying "no this looks like the real deal and Russia has at no point stopped going through the series of steps you need to go through to finish mobilising". Still time for either side to be right, but moving from deployment to staging areas is something you only do as a military measure See: https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1489972005483028488 Alchenar fucked around with this message at 19:18 on Feb 5, 2022 |
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Feb 5, 2022 19:12
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Putin just wants some respect, that's why he's ordered 3/5ths of Russia's total estimated ground/air forces into forward positions all around Ukraine.
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Feb 5, 2022 19:27
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Conspiratiorist posted:Putin just wants some respect, that's why he's ordered 3/5ths of Russia's total estimated ground/air forces into forward positions all around Ukraine. Please, it's Mister Putin.
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Feb 5, 2022 20:04
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FishBulbia posted:only the military borsch ration topic things are not looking good The coincidences with other advisors, the thinking is that an invasion will happen around the mid-late of February.
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Feb 5, 2022 20:29
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USAF E-8 JSTARS (Joint Strike Target Attack Radar System) on task over Ukraine at 00:53 local Not a normal occurance by any means
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Feb 5, 2022 20:38
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Conspiratiorist posted:Putin just wants some respect, that's why he's ordered 3/5ths of Russia's total estimated ground/air forces into forward positions all around Ukraine. Do you have any source for the current staged forces being 3/5th of Russia’s total forces? Not doubting you, just curious to read more about it.
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Feb 5, 2022 20:45
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dominoeffect posted:Do you have any source for the current staged forces being 3/5th of Russia’s total forces? Not doubting you, just curious to read more about it. It was a consensus estimate - you never heard of the 3/5 compromise in the Slav states?
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Feb 5, 2022 20:55
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dominoeffect posted:Do you have any source for the current staged forces being 3/5th of Russia’s total forces? Not doubting you, just curious to read more about it. Sorry, I'm drinking straight from the tap so I don't have much in the way of comprehensive analyses. Fox News' Jen Griffin (I know) did report 83 BTGs + 14 in transit yesterday, but over on my side the count is up to 102 BTGs with sporadic new sightings (plus whatever the ships en route are carrying), leading to an estimated 105~110 BTG intended total. This is on the heavier side of half the BTG potential of the entire Russian military, which depending on who you ask and when is roughly 200. Here's an acquaintance's self-made force concentration map: 
Conspiratiorist fucked around with this message at 21:10 on Feb 5, 2022 |
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Feb 5, 2022 21:07
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I don't see anyway how Ukraine or their current government survives an invasion. There's no way they can beat that and even an insurgency is a long stretch.
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Feb 5, 2022 21:10
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Though technically they have concentrated the capability to seize everything east of the Dnieper, I don't believe they will go for a massive long-term occupation much less attempt at annexation. That said, at the absolute minimum Ukraine's current military forces will be completely crushed as a matter of course, and whatever ceasefire agreement Russia compels out of the Zelensky administration is going to politically destroy them, yes.
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Feb 5, 2022 21:17
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Wouldn't Russia simply seek to grab rebel regions in Ukraine like the Donbass? Annex the eastern half of the country and leave the west. What else does Russia want?
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Feb 5, 2022 21:37
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:I don't see anyway how Ukraine or their current government survives an invasion. There's no way they can beat that and even an insurgency is a long stretch. It has never been a question of Russia’s capabilities, except for maybe the extreme scenario of occupying the entire country - it’s that of Putin’s willingness and ability you pay the associated political, economical, and military costs. quarantinethepast posted:Wouldn't Russia simply seek to grab rebel regions in Ukraine like the Donbass? Annex the eastern half of the country and leave the west. What else does Russia want? Annexing regions they have unofficially annexed already is not all that worthwhile. The smallest possible target that they likely can only achieve by military means is a land connection to Crimea, since the Kerch strait bridge is a stopgap measure at best. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 21:42 on Feb 5, 2022 |
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Feb 5, 2022 21:39
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quarantinethepast posted:Wouldn't Russia simply seek to grab rebel regions in Ukraine like the Donbass? Annex the eastern half of the country and leave the west. What else does Russia want? This is already the case de facto. Who is going to recognise such reimagining of Russo-Ukrainian border when they still haven't recognised the previous annexation of Ukrainian turf? Doing so would result in even deeper economic rift with the west, what would Putin gain from it?
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Feb 5, 2022 21:46
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It has never been a question of Russia’s capabilities, except for maybe the extreme scenario of occupying the entire country - it’s that of Putin’s willingness and ability you pay the associated political, economical, and military costs. Agreed. At this point I wonder if he's going to try to take Eastern Ukraine or some kind of Desert Fox scenario and disable their military. A full occupation seems dumb, risky, etc.
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Feb 5, 2022 21:49
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And why is Putin always doing these aggressions during Olympics? Georgia in summer 2008, Crimea in winter 2014, now in winter 2022. Coincidence?
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Feb 5, 2022 21:53
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There’s a fresh FT article with more American opinions on potential plans. TLDR: Milley and Haines say there are 60-83 BTGs at the border, with 14 more on their way already. Between 1200 and 2100 special forces troops. Total of >100k troops, yet 70% of what they estimate as necessary for “full-scale invasion with assault on Kyiv”. Furthermore, they say Russia plans to move the autumn strategic forces exercises to mid-February, and that the optimal time window for an attack is from mid-February until late March.
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Feb 5, 2022 21:57
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quarantinethepast posted:And why is Putin always doing these aggressions during Olympics? Georgia in summer 2008, Crimea in winter 2014, now in winter 2022. Coincidence? Coincidence. But gets a grim chuckle out of me when policy wonks cite his current presence in the olympics as a reason why things are most certainly not about to pop off.
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Feb 5, 2022 21:59
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quarantinethepast posted:Wouldn't Russia simply seek to grab rebel regions in Ukraine like the Donbass? Annex the eastern half of the country and leave the west. What else does Russia want? Russia doesn't actually want to annex anymore of Ukraine, they want a neutral/puppet Ukraine. Their goal is regime change.
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Feb 5, 2022 22:03
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Rust Martialis posted:It was a consensus estimate - you never heard of the 3/5 compromise in the Slav states?  well done
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Feb 5, 2022 22:50
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Maybe the Russians will rush into Kiev, force Zelensky out and put Yanokovitch back in power? Or is that an incredibly silly theory. I mean they could say he's the "legitimate" president of Ukraine since he was elected after all but was forced out.
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Feb 5, 2022 23:11
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I feel there are far less divisive candidates currently in Ukraine. Yanukovych did piss literally everyone off.
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Feb 5, 2022 23:25
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I can't think of any rulers that successfully came back to power after being ousted in a popular revolution, whether peaceful or violent. I don't think Yanukovich will somehow change that
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Feb 5, 2022 23:28
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Yanukovich was decisively denounced by his own party.
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Feb 5, 2022 23:37
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There has to be some dude in Ukraine who’s willing to be Putin’s puppet and have a fig leaf of some popularity. Why would they pick Yanukovych if there’s a forced regime change
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Feb 6, 2022 00:07
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:There has to be some dude in Ukraine who’s willing to be Putin’s puppet and have a fig leaf of some popularity. Why would they pick Yanukovych if there’s a forced regime change I'll do it. (then stab Putin in the back and join nato, don't tell him that)
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Feb 6, 2022 01:23
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https://twitter.com/JacquiHeinrich/status/1490105106066513922
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Feb 6, 2022 01:36
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Edit: Read end of thread. Good to know the US is gearing up for a refugee crisis pre-emptively.
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Feb 6, 2022 02:16
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HonorableTB posted:I can't think of any rulers that successfully came back to power after being ousted in a popular revolution, whether peaceful or violent. I don't think Yanukovich will somehow change that i mean, the bourbon restoration lasted 16 years. that's not nothing
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Feb 6, 2022 02:21
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:i mean, the bourbon restoration lasted 16 years. that's not nothing I admit I didn't have 19th century France in mind when making that post, touche
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Feb 6, 2022 02:23
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The US can't just sit back and let an invasion happen, especially after Afghanistan. That'll give everyone in NATO cold feet.
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Feb 6, 2022 02:58
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72 hours is... fast. still digesting but jesus. It's good to know they're planning for a migrant crisis but I cannot even begin to fathom how bad it would prove to be.
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Feb 6, 2022 02:59
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I imagine that if said invasion comes to pass, we may see a fracturing of NATO as Eastern European countries realize they're on their own, and subsequently an increase in nationalism and military spending. Imagine the hard right turn in Poland but everywhere in Eastern Europe. A shattered American hegemony may look like something to celebrate for some but short term it's chaos and tension.
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Feb 6, 2022 03:20
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For those of us that aren't well versed in recent Polish politics, what's a quick summary of that?
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Feb 6, 2022 03:21
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