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I finally, finally sucked up and learned how to navigate my IKBR portfolio so I can use it right. 
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Feb 8, 2022 06:51
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Welp, Nvidia's acquisition of Arm is dead. Who had NVDA puts?
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Feb 8, 2022 07:20
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Some of you guys should realize that this is the gambling thread, and when you're gambling there's usually only one winner. This is all nice and fun to do with the gambling portion of your money that you should have set aside for this. If you want to get in the market with your real money, there's the other stock thread. That said, I'm not your pappy, do what you want.
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Feb 8, 2022 10:36
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If you are long equities, EV is positive. You aren't playing against the house here.
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Feb 8, 2022 14:41
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You can take both sides on any position, you can be the house if you think there's an edge there.
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Feb 8, 2022 15:02
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It is gambling, though. That part is correct. It's more like a poker game than other casino games: the house takes a rake, but you can still win in both short and long periods if you're +EV over the other guys at the table. Also not like poker, because the average of everyone's stacks grow over time, due to dividends and stock buybacks etc. pumping more money into the market all the time. But still somewhat like poker, in that you can easily plow all your money, borrow more, and plow all of that, into big dumb bets that were always likely to lose and when all your chips are gone, they toss you out on the street.
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Feb 8, 2022 19:59
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Starting a position in VITA COCO for some Consumer Staples exposure. I'm on Team $COCO 🥥. They also do private label - we know what we're getting at Costco today. I like its strong EPS growth and it seems sexier than the LatAm supermarket chains and bottlers in the segment. Man Musk fucked around with this message at 20:07 on Feb 8, 2022 |
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Feb 8, 2022 20:02
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I have literally no idea how to take a short position. I have revolut but all you can do is buy stocks
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Feb 8, 2022 20:13
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PLTN question. I generally avoid stocks like PLTN for this reason. PLTN announces they are cutting bike production - they saturated their market and sales are drying up. Stock plummets - makes sense. Rumors of buyout by AMZN or others - stock bump - makes sense. PLTN lays off most of their staff - stock skyrockets - I'm guessing as this clearly signals the company is for sale? Why, for a company that has to start closing up shop due to market over saturation, would the stock be bumping up for a potential take over? Shouldn't the take over be at a "discount" price given the very bleak internal look and recent weak sales data?
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Feb 8, 2022 20:46
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Leperflesh posted:It is gambling, though. Its gambling in the sense that there is risk, and no guarantee of stable results (even in your vanguard bond funds). It isn't gambling in the popular sense, which is a completely degenerate activity that no one can make any money at. For example, getting paid a ton of money for the bet that GME would not go below 5 again in a 6 month period, that was an insanely +EV proposition. I'm kicking myself that I didn't put more money on that, but diversification and risk management is another thing that you absolutely have to do.
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Feb 8, 2022 20:50
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:PLTN question. I generally avoid stocks like PLTN for this reason. Do you mean PTON?
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Feb 8, 2022 21:02
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Peloton makes money by selling exercise class subscriptions. That's the valuable piece that other companies want to buy. They don't want a huge factory with tons of workers. Just a tiny factory to make a couple new bikes and the subscription base.
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Feb 8, 2022 21:11
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jiggerypokery posted:I have literally no idea how to take a short position. I have revolut but all you can do is buy stocks You could buy an inverse leveraged ETF for whatever broad sector thing you wanted to short - if you wanted to express a bearish sentiment on a sector. For individual stocks yes you need a real brokerage.
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Feb 8, 2022 21:18
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Cacafuego posted:Do you mean PTON? Sorry yes PTON. Artonos posted:Peloton makes money by selling exercise class subscriptions. That's the valuable piece that other companies want to buy. They don't want a huge factory with tons of workers. Just a tiny factory to make a couple new bikes and the subscription base. I see the value in this - but it's still far less valuable than PTON's valuation as a growth tech company, right? The growth portion and valuations should be long gone?
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Feb 8, 2022 21:29
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No rug pull today, hopefully nobody touched the SPY poop
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Feb 8, 2022 22:00
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Baddog posted:Its gambling in the sense that there is risk, and no guarantee of stable results (even in your vanguard bond funds). I have to control myself when it comes to discussions of semantics because my instincts are to annoy people with endless discussion. But with that in mind, since you seem interested: the semantics and connotative meaning of the word "gambling" are variable and I agree with you that overuse of that word can lead people to making the very false and potentially destructive choice not to participate in any sort of investing that touches the stock market, and that's bad. But I also think that there are a huge number of people who really have not internalized or accepted that they are taking huge risks with the kinds of investing choices they're making. For them, having the serious long-term Stock Thread posters who seem smart and reliable, also be fully willing to admit that what we are doing with our individual stock picks is taking big risks with small percentages of our portfolio in part for entertainment and to claim some small chance of Making It Rich and in part making serious attempts to just juice our long-term returns a bit - y'know, gambling-ish stuff. Not really gambling exactly, but also not really the same as our S&P500 index fund with a few hundred K in it, either. I don't know of a word in English that fully conveys in its colloquial usage all the meaning we'd want; simultaneously impressing upon a person that even "very very smart people" with lots of experience routinely lose their shirts loving around in the stock market, but also a diversified basket of stock market investments has a better-than-even chance of growing over time and people with long-term financial goals and enough money beyond their direct needs to afford it are basically fools not to participate.
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Feb 9, 2022 00:11
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Long term aggregate stock returns are +EV. Short term individual positions are essentially random, highly skewed, and probably -EV because of transaction and execution costs.
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Feb 9, 2022 00:47
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Leperflesh posted:But I also think that there are a huge number of people who really have not internalized or accepted that they are taking huge risks with the kinds of investing choices they're making. For them, having the serious long-term Stock Thread posters who seem smart and reliable, also be fully willing to admit that what we are doing with our individual stock picks is taking big risks with small percentages of our portfolio in part for entertainment and to claim some small chance of Making It Rich and in part making serious attempts to just juice our long-term returns a bit - y'know, gambling-ish stuff. Not really gambling exactly, but also not really the same as our S&P500 index fund with a few hundred K in it, either. Making a carefully considered yet risky decision in search of probable positive returns over an extended series of outcomes is not gambling, it's investing; or at the very least, trading. The wisdom of your decisions influences -- but does not wholly determine -- the outcome, beyond random chance. It's not roulette. Comparing the distribution of returns from stock picking to market-cap weighted index investing is an entirely different topic. On the other hand, buying NDRA or CRTX because 'lol I saw it in thread and maybe FDA approval comes thru' or SOFI because 'bank charter' is gambling at best, or this at worst:  unfortunately the thread is mainly concerned with the latter type of wallstreetbets plays
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Feb 9, 2022 00:56
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who's got some hot semiconductor plays that aren't NVDA or AMD
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Feb 9, 2022 01:10
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https://twitter.com/ETHMUPPET/status/1491123964302991362?t=BV_d-IbKMyafYbw6ZmjuZA&s=19 You all lack conviction in your trades.
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Feb 9, 2022 01:12
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drk posted:who's got some hot semiconductor plays that aren't NVDA or AMD I like NVTS
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Feb 9, 2022 01:26
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pmchem posted:Making a carefully considered yet risky decision in search of probable positive returns over an extended series of outcomes is not gambling, it's investing; or at the very least, trading. The wisdom of your decisions influences -- but does not wholly determine -- the outcome, beyond random chance. It's not roulette. OTOH CRTX did quadruple over 6 months so it wasn't that bad if you got out. But that's the game isn't it.......
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Feb 9, 2022 01:31
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Leperflesh posted:It is gambling, though. That part is correct. It's more like a poker game than other casino games: the house takes a rake, but you can still win in both short and long periods if you're +EV over the other guys at the table. Also not like poker, because the average of everyone's stacks grow over time, due to dividends and stock buybacks etc. pumping more money into the market all the time. But still somewhat like poker, in that you can easily plow all your money, borrow more, and plow all of that, into big dumb bets that were always likely to lose and when all your chips are gone, they toss you out on the street. If you buy VTI is that like stepping up to a roulette wheel and putting money on everything?
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Feb 9, 2022 01:55
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Vox Nihili posted:If you buy VTI is that like stepping up to a roulette wheel and putting money on everything? no, betting on everything at roulette is guaranteed to lose money. almost like buying a short-term bond fund at the start of 2021. dodged those so far: pmchem posted:well, I agree with your point about needing to be able to take risk. I just wanted to note that bonds have not been great for the past year and there's a REALLY good chance that doesn't change in 2022.
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Feb 9, 2022 01:59
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pmchem posted:no, betting on everything at roulette is guaranteed to lose money. almost like buying a short-term bond fund at the start of 2021. dodged those so far: TBT and TTT right? If you're planning on bond prices falling I should say. Oscar Wild fucked around with this message at 02:35 on Feb 9, 2022 |
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Feb 9, 2022 02:32
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Oscar Wild posted:TBT and TTT right? go wild https://etfdb.com/screener/#page=1&asset_class=bond&inverse=true or just get futures for /ZT, /ZF, /ZN, /ZB, etc. the worst might be over for longer duration bonds, hard to say. most 'street' predictions are still bearish.
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Feb 9, 2022 02:37
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:Sorry yes PTON. The brand is valuable. The current peloton people didn't seem to have a good transition plan. If some other tech giant thinks they can transition to a more mature business model and fold it into their current business it is probably worth a good amount. If with prime you also get peloton for an extra few bucks on your prime membership it could be a value add for the buying company.
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Feb 9, 2022 03:10
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Wait, peloton had 14,000 employees? They still have over 11,000? That's an insane number, when they hadn't even built their own factory yet.
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Feb 9, 2022 03:39
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movax posted:I like NVTS Oh, and someone else posted about it, IIRC pmchem, AMKR to get in on the packaging action. Others I like, though it’s basically going to list EVERY semi company… EDA tools — CDNS, SNPS. They’re not going anywhere, IP only gets more complex, everyone licenses from these guys or uses their tools to design chips. Equipment — ASML, Lam Research (forget the ticker), KLA Tencor Fab — TSM, for obvious reasons Others — ST Micro, Infineon are solid automotive stalwarts who maintain mixed-signal design expertise and have heritage in the auto world, and they haven’t gotten eaten… yet. ADI and TXN of course for US mixed-signal / other semis And of course leaving out the obvious ones. Tl;dr — SOXL every day, world runs on sand (I don’t actually have THAT much SOXL, I’m equities on most of the above companies + the usuals)
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Feb 9, 2022 03:52
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Baddog posted:Wait, peloton had 14,000 employees? They still have over 11,000? That's an insane number, when they hadn't even built their own factory yet. poorly managed is an understatement, their ceo is going to be on unemployment by the end of the month
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Feb 9, 2022 03:54
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doingitwrong posted:Long term aggregate stock returns are +EV. https://twitter.com/michaellistman/status/1476620825788747781 Tell that to this guy averaging 100%/year returns with weekly naked uvxy calls.
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Feb 9, 2022 04:19
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movax posted:semi stuff Yeah some good companies in here, but some of these are trading at pretty crazy earnings multiples given revenue growth rates. And the fact that the semi market has historically been fairly cyclical, though it certainly seems to be on an upswing currently. Everyone seems to be building capacity. Bought some AMAT and TXN this week. STM looks good too.
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Feb 9, 2022 05:25
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movax posted:Tl;dr — SOXL every day, world runs on sand (I don’t actually have THAT much SOXL, I’m equities on most of the above companies + the usuals) Man I don't think I do nearly enough cocaine to participate in this thread
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Feb 9, 2022 06:26
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Some Peloton Numbers: 12.3 Market Cap ~6M bikes sold; ~5.9 active; Free 1st year/deals aside, ~$40/mo - $480/year ~$2.8B/year rev $4BB 2020 rev, -$500MM EBITDA, $2BB Operating - of which $300M R&D(!). 11,000+ (!!!) employees I can see the argument now - this is a very, very bloated company with absurd operating costs. The product shelf life isn't great, but moderate cost cutting gets you back $12B in 6-8 years easy - and that's discounting someone like Amazon expanding the market with cheaper bikes. Imagine running a company that poorly and still getting a $12B+ pay out for it.
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Feb 9, 2022 06:38
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Are we still dumping or are we rallying? Come on market help me out here. Make up your mind. Seemed like tech was doomed for a little bit, but a few good news stories (well, minus FB) and things seem on the up and up again. Not really sure what to do rn. Still have some money set aside to buy VTI if the market dumped more. hm. Now it's just sitting there. Could buy some more GOOG assuming that it'll run up after it eventually splits. Right now I'm just looking at a bunch of losers down from their highs and I'm not doing much trading of anything.
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Feb 9, 2022 06:39
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Oscar Wild posted:You all lack conviction in your trades. I believe in the heart of the stocks.
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Feb 9, 2022 09:09
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Kind of feeling like we're gonna rally until Friday 10:30 est then rugpull, more rugpull Mondaymovax posted:Tl;dr — SOXL every day, world runs on sand (I don’t actually have THAT much SOXL, I’m equities on most of the above companies + the usuals) Bought one share, put it in my HCP bucket along with NDRA
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Feb 9, 2022 12:09
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drk posted:who's got some hot semiconductor plays that aren't NVDA or AMD Not an exciting play, but I do have shares of QCOM. Their recent earnings have been big and I don't think the share price has bumped as much as should to reflect that.
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Feb 9, 2022 17:11
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drk posted:who's got some hot semiconductor plays that aren't NVDA or AMD AMAT and TSM are always worth a gander.
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Feb 9, 2022 18:17
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Subvisual Haze posted:Not an exciting play, but I do have shares of QCOM. Their recent earnings have been big and I don't think the share price has bumped as much as should to reflect that. I'm sure it is already priced in, but I offloaded some of mine after their recent 52 week high Q3 or Q4 last year. They're going to lose the modem volume to AAPL "soon" (definitely priced in) and I'm bearish on their ability to do anything with NUVIA because Apple is the only player in the market that 1) has the vertical integration and 2) the management / systems engineering (of sorts) chops to get everyone from their silicon teams, through hardware, through OS-level SW talking to each other correctly. Girbot posted:AMAT and TSM are always worth a gander. The world will never stop needing chips but at some point we're going to overbuild deep deep sub-micron capability and forget we still need big lithography wafers for the "boring" chips. Still have to move electrons from point A to point B in controlled fashion. Nice pop on ENPH after-hours -- I don't know if we'll see north of $200 again anytime soon, but that's another beautiful earnings report.
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Feb 9, 2022 18:59
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