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Crosby B. Alfred posted:They're hosed. Also Putin has experience with putting down a popular insurgency with a minoritarian genocidal government in Syria the Ukranians arent gonna manage much sadly.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:16
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They're not gonna invade, trust me
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Feb 11, 2022 20:16
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:lol that's the date ppl think is most likely since its peak freeze and after Xi's Olympics. Cool, cool! Minenfeld! posted:Wait so you're invading? Just visiting to see some cathedrals
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Feb 11, 2022 20:16
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mobby_6kl posted:Cool, cool! I'd cancel those tickets now while you can get the refunds.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:18
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Al-Saqr posted:Also Putin has experience with putting down a popular insurgency with a minoritarian genocidal government in Syria the Ukranians arent gonna manage much sadly. Exactly, the world doesn't need another Syrian refugee crisis.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:19
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:They're hosed. Let's not doompost yet. I am guessing there will be little fighting in cities. Russia's goal will be decisively defeating the Ukrainian army in the field, something which it should be able to do easily, and then just getting a signature on the "ukraine forever bufferstate" bill Al-Saqr posted:Good luck to the Ukranians, they're gonna need it, https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1492215908110065667?s=20&t=kfXjkQT-HAVTpcDxuBG73g
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Feb 11, 2022 20:19
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Negostrike posted:They're not gonna invade, trust me It's this. Two weeks ago Pentagon promised that Russia would attack as soon as the ground freezes over, it froze over, Russia didn't attack, and now it's not going to be cold enough again this year. Literally nothing is happening.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:21
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Paladinus posted:It's this. Two weeks ago Pentagon promised that Russia would attack as soon as the ground freezes over, it froze over, Russia didn't attack, and now it's not going to be cold enough again this year. Literally nothing is happening. Just two more weeks to
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Feb 11, 2022 20:22
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Here's hoping. But we also don't have all the intel that is motivating these countries to say GTFO out, maybe its just so they don't have to deal with it if the invasion does happen, but who knows.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:23
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Alchenar posted:I've always thought that was weird. The movements of hundreds of thousands of troops are not going to hinge on if there is sports on the TV and never was, it was such a weird grasp by the political commentators. It also extra made no sense cause Russia isn't even allowed to compete as a nation in the Olympics, literally "what are you gonna do, ban me?". And China basically has nothing to do with Ukraine. As much as China and Russia are being buddy-buddy because no one else loves them (nor should), they're not that close. They have a few strategic shared goals, but a lot more independent goals. If it benefits one to throw the other under a bus I'm sure they would not bat an eye to do so. And I don't even think it will make that much of an impact, the Olympics are already halfway done and it's not like people can't watch war coverage and sports coverage at the same time. So yeah, it was a weird stretch. If I've learned anything over the last 2 decades it's that no one is good at reading any tea leaves in pretty much any field.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:24
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Nothing has changed, there's no point in getting into panic over a couple of muddled he said she said tweets.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:24
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steinrokkan posted:Nothing has changed, there's no point in getting into panic over a couple of muddled he said she said tweets. I mean we've clearly passed some kind of 'for reals evacuate embassies and if you are a citizen gtfo' threshold for a lot of countries.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:31
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yeah I think all the embassies telling their citizens to leave the country IMMEDIATELY and them withdrawing is a pretty worrying development that's new.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:32
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Alchenar posted:I mean we've clearly passed some kind of 'for reals evacuate embassies and if you are a citizen gtfo' threshold for a lot of countries. I think some of it may be signals intel, some of it may be the Amphibious fleet that just arrived in the bay today.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:32
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I still think it's very unlikely they'll do anything major, even in Mariupol/DNR. But recent negotiations haven't been particularly encouraging but if something does happen, it could be very, very bad.Al-Saqr posted:I'd cancel those tickets now while you can get the refunds. What are the EU regulations on compensation if the destination airport's runway is destroyed? Alchenar posted:I've always thought that was weird. The movements of hundreds of thousands of troops are not going to hinge on if there is sports on the TV and never was, it was such a weird grasp by the political commentators.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:32
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Al-Saqr posted:yeah I think all the embassies telling their citizens to leave the country IMMEDIATELY and them withdrawing is a pretty worrying development that's new. That just means the bluff is working.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:34
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Orthanc6 posted:It also extra made no sense cause Russia isn't even allowed to compete as a nation in the Olympics, literally "what are you gonna do, ban me?". And China basically has nothing to do with Ukraine. As much as China and Russia are being buddy-buddy because no one else loves them (nor should), they're not that close. They have a few strategic shared goals, but a lot more independent goals. If it benefits one to throw the other under a bus I'm sure they would not bat an eye to do so. Russia needs an economic relationship with China since the West isn't a viable option anymore, so bending to Chinese wishes to some extent makes sense. It just depends on how serious this is to China, and how clear they've made that to Russia. You know, if Russia wants to invade in the first place.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:34
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Conspiratiorist posted:That just means the bluff is working. Eh, not really. The bluff is to get Ukraine to stay out of the EU. I doubt this will have little bearing unless Putin manages a regime change in Ukraine and that's unlikely to happen without an invasion.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:35
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See it's actually a double bluff to get the West to panic.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:37
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the russian flag is raised over Kyiv- "Wow the rare triple bluff, more putin mind games i see"
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Feb 11, 2022 20:38
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Conspiratiorist posted:See it's actually a double bluff to get the West to panic. With the goal of...? I mean how many millions and elaborate troop and naval repositioning is worth a 'psyche! Made ya look!' to Putin?
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Feb 11, 2022 20:40
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Al-Saqr posted:Also Putin has experience with putting down a popular insurgency with a minoritarian genocidal government in Syria the Ukranians arent gonna manage much sadly. Don’t forget the Chechnya experience. 
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Feb 11, 2022 20:41
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Oracle posted:With the goal of...? To earn respect, obviously. An actual war would be too costly.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:41
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https://twitter.com/terischultz/status/1492205302376247301?t=PWPq0C3rfFhugj740VwPkQ&s=19 A bit more of a sign that some kind of threshold got passed.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:42
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As a note in passing, one of the Russian athletes at the Olympics failed a PED test.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:43
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Oracle posted:With the goal of...? Destroying the Ukrainian economy and pressuring them to accept Minsk, which would plunge the country into civil unrest.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:45
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Eastern Europe: Olivier's Army Are On Their Way
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Feb 11, 2022 20:45
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Sir Bobert Fishbone posted:Eastern Europe: Olivier's Army Are On Their Way "....is that hard bass I heard in the distance?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIqr94NDeTE
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Feb 11, 2022 20:46
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FishBulbia posted:Destroying the Ukrainian economy and pressuring them to accept Minsk, which would plunge the country into civil unrest. But that'd be so costly in terms of sanctions; no way Vladimir Putin would dare attack another country if it'd jeopardize NS2.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:47
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https://twitter.com/amanpour/status/1492218267099975684?s=21 Christiane Amanpour is doubling down on the ‘putin came to the decision’ angle, this time the source is from a NATO member
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Feb 11, 2022 20:48
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Discendo Vox posted:As a note in passing, one of the Russian athletes at the Olympics failed a PED test. That's lovely. As she's just 15 it's quite possible that her coach gave her the substance to get more progress during the training and not disclosing to her what it was. And it's not something that helps a figure skater perform better in a contest, either, just in training according to the article. If that's the case then her career will be done for and the coach will probably not suffer anything.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:52
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Discendo Vox posted:As a note in passing, one of the Russian athletes at the Olympics failed a PED test. Maybe that's why Putin's moved up the invasion. You won't waive the testing failure for our athlete fine, we're not going to make sure your games aren't one-upped in the news by our invasion, screw you Xi! WE HAD A DEAL!
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Feb 11, 2022 20:53
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The pathetic charade with Russians being / not being allowed to participate on a glorified honour system was the final nail in the coffin of whatever little dignity the Olympics might have had left before that
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Feb 11, 2022 20:55
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Oracle posted:Maybe that's why Putin's moved up the invasion. You won't waive the testing failure for our athlete fine, we're not going to make sure your games aren't one-upped in the news by our invasion, screw you Xi! WE HAD A DEAL! Oh, has Vova moved on from rhytmic gymnasts now? Granted Alina Kabaeva is getting a bit old for him.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:56
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Conspiratiorist posted:But that'd be so costly in terms of sanctions; no way Vladimir Putin would dare attack another country if it'd jeopardize NS2. The problem here is both realties are stupid. It's stupid to invade Ukraine, lose NS2 and billions of dollars funding a war and getting slapped with even more sanctions. But it's also stupid to spend a few less billion moving and supplying 130,000 troops on the knife edge of Ukraine and keep them there for months trying to get concessions from Ukraine or NATO that I could have told Putin 8 years ago would never happen. War has always been an extremely economically and politically dangerous affair and lots of seemingly rational leaders have blundered into it an lost hard anyways.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:57
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Let the pan gopnik union reign supreme. Send in the heavy basstillery and get your knees ready for heavy squatting.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:58
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Nenonen posted:That's lovely. As she's just 15 it's quite possible that her coach gave her the substance to get more progress during the training and not disclosing to her what it was. And it's not something that helps a figure skater perform better in a contest, either, just in training according to the article. If that's the case then her career will be done for and the coach will probably not suffer anything. Yeah, my take here is that this skater is underage and has been failed by all the adults around her. I'm unclear as to why her sample, which was submitted in December, was only tested yesterday, one day after her event.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:58
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Orthanc6 posted:The problem here is both realties are stupid. It's stupid to invade Ukraine, lose NS2 and billions of dollars funding a war and getting slapped with even more sanctions. But it's also stupid to spend a few less billion moving and supplying 130,000 troops on the knife edge of Ukraine and keep them there for months trying to get concessions from Ukraine or NATO that I could have told Putin 8 years ago would never happen. I blame toxic masculinity. Always gotta prove they tough.
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Feb 11, 2022 20:58
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Sir Bobert Fishbone posted:Eastern Europe: Olivier's Army Are On Their Way If you know Oliver's Army but not So Like Candy than you don't get to quote Costello songs
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Feb 11, 2022 21:01
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Conspiratiorist posted:But that'd be so costly in terms of sanctions; no way Vladimir Putin would dare attack another country if it'd jeopardize NS2. The idea is with the hybrid war approach, Russia can avoid the costs of open conflict while still wrecking Ukraine economically and politically.
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Feb 11, 2022 21:03
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