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A Buttery Pastry posted:The Holocaust is considerably further in the past than US election meddling, what with it being on-going. In any case, I was reacting mostly to calling meddling in an election* an act of war in a thread presently discussing the possibly imminent re-invasion of a country that was invaded less than a decade ago by the same country that apparently committed an act of war against the US. Calling election meddling an act of war completely deflates the term. It's getting closer these days, though, since Fox News now looks more like it's owned by Medvedchuk rather than Murdoch.
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Feb 13, 2022 07:35
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A Buttery Pastry posted:The Holocaust is considerably further in the past than US election meddling, what with it being on-going. In any case, I was reacting mostly to calling meddling in an election* an act of war in a thread presently discussing the possibly imminent re-invasion of a country that was invaded less than a decade ago by the same country that apparently committed an act of war against the US. Calling election meddling an act of war completely deflates the term. All I'm seeing is self-serving unsound reasoning to discredit people and discourage them from criticizing things that need to be criticized. And it's absolutely an act of war, even if bloodless. Just like hacking infrastructure.
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Feb 13, 2022 07:39
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What you people are saying is that this can still turn into the biggest troll in world history
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Feb 13, 2022 07:49
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:One thing I do hate and see as possibly proof this is all going to end in a normal day is the they keep sending loving jets to fly on NATO air space like why? Russia isn't threatening NATO. Jets are flying here all the time, since way before Crimea. There’s a very solid chance that Romania requested extra presence to reassure the public. ronya posted:Re: that bizarre 'On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians' essay in 2021, is it plausibly regarded as a passion piece from the top or is it mainly blather for domestic consumption? I’m not sure I understand the difference between your options, but it’s not too blathering. Clearly fictional, but also clearly communicates Putin’s disdain for Ukrainian independence, and informs further developments in domestic propaganda.
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Feb 13, 2022 08:08
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ronya posted:Re: that bizarre 'On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians' essay in 2021, is it plausibly regarded as a passion piece from the top or is it mainly blather for domestic consumption? If you read essays by people high up in the security hierarchy of Russia currently like Bortnikov or former people deep inside like Medvedev or Yakunin they love to put their brain worms on paper which will invariably have references to the perfidious Anglo-Saxons, gay marriage and immigration ruining Europe, Russia being a defender of Christians and civilization, the various historical slights and conspiracy theories and so on and so on. Weird ahistorical revisionism of Ukrainian/old Slavic history is a part of that This is not a coincide, this has been a parallel current to Marxism-Leninism for the ideological preparation of the KGB and the military officers with various russian nationalist myths that were later fused with orthodox Christianity (which is itself fully infiltrated by Soviet intelligence officers) into a semi-coherent far-right ideology. People call this duginism, but the guy didn't invent it, he essentially collected what were already several ideological undercurrents with their own narratives into one. Due to the deeply authoritarian for of Putin's rule his environment went through negative selection into people who believe or were convinced of the same stuff he believes. This is also what is translated by Russian state television. So yes, the russian leadership fully believes what they write in the articles they release Edit: this is also what people mean by saying Putin is irrational. Not that he'll take off his pants in public, but that he is completely disconnected from day to day concerns and problems of the population and is laser focused on Historical Greatness and reliving the cold war Trump posted:What you people are saying is that this can still turn into the biggest troll in world history I'm on the edge same as everyone but one thing to note is that all these super detailed leaks are from the us intelligence and nothing yet from any Russian officers preparing for a war with a well dug in country Somaen fucked around with this message at 08:57 on Feb 13, 2022 |
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Feb 13, 2022 08:30
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Past march the ground becomes muddy which makes it harder to move tanks through. Putin also temporarily loses his biggest defense against sanctions and actual consequences for his actions which is being Europe's heating supply. They’re already kind of late this year. I’m sure the ground is still frozen in Ukraine but it’s very much already spring in most of Europe, which is super early this year. It’s warm and nice in almost all of Europe already, it’s not a frozen wasteland like Canada, like I see Ottawa is still like -20 every day and Kyiv is like 6 degrees during the day. Tbh if they shut off my heating for the rest of the year I’d be a little uncomfortable for a couple weeks? Anyway there is a strategic stockpile. I think the main issue would be for -next- year. I also hope / suspect that it will just be intimidation tactics to support Russia claiming independence for Donbass, but who knows. It would sure make me-and I suspect most Europeans-hate Russia forever in my lifetime (or at least Putin’s), and I was ambivalent before when they took Crimea.
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Feb 13, 2022 09:20
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Jets are flying here all the time, since way before Crimea. There’s a very solid chance that Romania requested extra presence to reassure the public. That seemsoke the most likely option. That the uptick Is to calm the economies down. Because it would seem tht things may have a serious drop in stock price if Putin invaded.i mean the EU not Ukraine Ukraine economy would immediately collapse from capital flight.
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Feb 13, 2022 09:26
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A Buttery Pastry posted:I feel like they don't, given that monarchs can be pretty limited in their ability to exercise power, while their source of legitimacy also being more institutional. A strongman dictatorship can evolve into a monarchy though, stability being achieved because your kid is generally less likely to bump you off than some dude not related to you. Are monarchies throughout history not littered with palace intrigue, usurpers, and assassinations with the next in line trying to ascend to the throne? I mean ones like Saudi Arabia where there is actual power behind it.
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Feb 13, 2022 09:26
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Is rasputitsa even as big of a problem for an invading force as it was during WW2? I assume most roads in Ukraine are paved nowadays and warfare would be almost asymmetrical with Russia just blowing through everything unopposed due to complete air superiority and massive equipment advantage.
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Feb 13, 2022 09:54
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Somaen posted:I'm on the edge same as everyone but one thing to note is that all these super detailed leaks are from the us intelligence and nothing yet from any Russian officers preparing for a war with a well dug in country This is what's preventing me from being at the very edge of my seat. It has the whole "There are WMDs here, trust us guys" vibe to it.
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Feb 13, 2022 10:01
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Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:And it's absolutely an act of war, even if bloodless. Just like hacking infrastructure. So has the USA been at war with most nations in Central and Southern America since the late 19th century? Electoral interference is bad, obviously, but I don't think it escalates quite as far as an act of war unless it is coupled with a few other factors. I don't mean to be rude, but I would like to disagree with your assessment.
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Feb 13, 2022 10:03
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An "act of war" nobody is willing to go to war over. Curious.
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Feb 13, 2022 10:05
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GeekyManatee posted:This is what's preventing me from being at the very edge of my seat. It has the whole "There are WMDs here, trust us guys" vibe to it. Unless US intelligence are putting up a pretty complicated ruse (atleast more complicated than a hopeless powerpoint and a vial filled with cocaine), it is absolutely a fact that russia has moved a large force vest and have surrounded Ukraine from every possible angle.
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Feb 13, 2022 10:07
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GeekyManatee posted:This is what's preventing me from being at the very edge of my seat. It has the whole "There are WMDs here, trust us guys" vibe to it. IMO not a "we have proof of WMDs" American ploy, but rather Russian military deliberately using signals they know are being read to keep the tensions at the maximum by making it appear hostilities may start at any moment. This isn't a case of America pressuring another country into war, this is exactly what Putin wanted, to be at the centre stage of world diplomacy and force everybody to entertain him and his demands while also waiting for the West to make mistakes. Even if it isn't really working.
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Feb 13, 2022 10:09
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steinrokkan posted:IMO not a "we have proof of WMDs" American ploy, but rather Russian military deliberately using signals they know are being read to keep the tensions at the maximum by making it appear hostilities may start at any moment. This isn't a case of America pressuring another country into war, this is exactly what Putin wanted, to be at the centre stage of world diplomacy and force everybody to entertain him and his demands while also waiting for the West to make mistakes. Even if it isn't really working. This is Putin basically pressure testing NATO and the west.
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Feb 13, 2022 10:28
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GeekyManatee posted:This is what's preventing me from being at the very edge of my seat. It has the whole "There are WMDs here, trust us guys" vibe to it. It would be more suspect if the us was doing anything other than proactively affirming their intention to not get involved. anyways the buildup is not really in any question, russia itself is open about it and they're the ones releasing the maps of the naval no-sail zones.
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Feb 13, 2022 10:30
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Somaen posted:perfidious Anglo-Saxons Parts of the American electorate now believe in conspiracy theories about elections stolen by foreigners. It's either foreign expats from Latin and South America that stole the 2020 election or the Russians that stole the 2016 election. The isolationist America First and Brexit movements in the U.S. and the U.K. have undermined the already poor credibility of the "Anglo-Saxons" abroad. The Americans doesn't even have an ambassador in Ukraine right now. https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1492508813118816259 quote:Some diplomats and experts speculated that the White House had little appetite for a Senate confirmation hearing that could devolve into a debate about Nord Stream 2, a natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany that members of both parties have criticized Mr. Biden for not opposing more vigorously. Republicans might also use a confirmation hearing to dredge up the past business activities in Ukraine of Mr. Biden’s son, Hunter, although one Senate Republican official said he was aware of no plans to do so.
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Feb 13, 2022 10:42
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Ah yes the "actually the unhinged beliefs of the russian security apparatus are true because Americans are bad" take, thanks for that Did you know that Lenin was a British agent sent by them to destroy the Russian empire and bring it under the control of the Judeo-bolsheviks? It's true because England is bad and also the Iraq war There will be no peace between Anglo-Saxons and swamp ugro-slavs Somaen fucked around with this message at 11:12 on Feb 13, 2022 |
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Feb 13, 2022 10:54
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ted hitler hunter posted:*fart* What's a BEB? Conspiratiorist posted:An "act of war" nobody is willing to go to war over. Curious. Read up on definitions of "War", even Wikipedia.
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Feb 13, 2022 11:15
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Spoke Lee posted:Are monarchies throughout history not littered with palace intrigue, usurpers, and assassinations with the next in line trying to ascend to the throne? I mean ones like Saudi Arabia where there is actual power behind it. Somaen posted:Ah yes the "actually the unhinged beliefs of the russian security apparatus are true because Americans are bad" take, thanks for that Of course a large part of the reason the EU doesn't trust the UK is all the characteristics it shares with Russia, so it's not much of a defense of Russia.
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Feb 13, 2022 12:09
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A Buttery Pastry posted:That's not what they said. They said the distrust makes sense, not everything else. And the lack of faith in Anglo institutions/politicians isn't limited to Russia, the EU has made it very clear it has no faith in the UK to uphold its treaties unless constantly pressured to do so, and lack of faith in America has been a topic that comes up quite often too. Nah the russian-anglo beef goes back centuries before and isn't because of trump or George Bush or brexit In any case anyone who uses Anglo-Saxons to refer to the 21st century English speaking states is some form of an idiot or the Russian foreign ministry employee
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Feb 13, 2022 12:15
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A Buttery Pastry posted:Of course a large part of the reason the EU doesn't trust the UK is all the characteristics it shares with Russia, so it's not much of a defense of Russia. Sounds reasonable. I see a lot of parallels. The UK sends death squads to other countries that murder regime critics, invades their neighbors with their military and installs puppet regimes, fakes election results, the list goes on.
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Feb 13, 2022 12:16
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Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:Sounds reasonable. I see a lot of parallels. The UK sends death squads to other countries that murder regime critics, invades their neighbors with their military and installs puppet regimes, fakes election results, the list goes on. Errr, may I recommend to you the Troubles if you do not believe the British state would not fund, collude with and employ death squads to kill regime critics in neighbouring nations. Heck there may even have been collusion to kill random band members in the Miami Showband killings. There is definetly form within the past 25 years of puppet regimes being installed, albeit not in neighbouring nations. There probably aren't faking election results ofc, and ofc I would not say that Russia should be doing any of that, but it is a bit weird to ignore the existence of clear refutation of your points. I do apologise if this is rude again! As a quick thing I do hope that there is no conflict in Eastern Europe. I am trying to keep abreast of things, but it does seem very worrying. I hope that everyone is keeping safe and well, thank you. Josef bugman fucked around with this message at 12:47 on Feb 13, 2022 |
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Feb 13, 2022 12:37
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Somaen posted:Nah the russian-anglo beef goes back centuries before and isn't because of trump or George Bush or brexit While Anglo-Saxons is unnecessarily specific, I find a generalised “Anglos” term to make way more sense than “former Soviet republics” as it is often used. No one has time for “English speaking countries with common law legal system”. Not defending MGIMO rhetoric here, just saying that for discussing slice of life things it makes sense from continental European perspective. You just need to caveat it with Americans being a bit over the top, and Britons being a bit inbred.
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Feb 13, 2022 12:48
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Josef bugman posted:Errr, may I recommend to you the Troubles Sure, somehow everything is the same. There's godwinning and bugmanning (the latter when everything is just as bad as Russia). I do apologize if this is rude, thanks!
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Feb 13, 2022 13:20
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I didn't say that it was the same, I said that there were parallels. Your knee jerk reaction to being told factual info is more than a little strange. Please reconsider that two things can be bad at the same time and I am not making excuses for any action by a lovely authoritarian state. I'm just trying to give you more information. Like your argument is that the UK doesn't do those things, but it does and has. Why is this not something to take on board and instead something to attack? Josef bugman fucked around with this message at 13:29 on Feb 13, 2022 |
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Feb 13, 2022 13:24
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https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1492819058739367939?s=21 Russian heavy military units continue to be moved towards the Ukrainian border.
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Feb 13, 2022 14:35
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A big flaming stink posted:right, what I'm trying to ascertain is to what extent is that claim is falsifiable I believe this is the second time I've noticed "falsifiable" being used in this context--I don't think an expectation of fasifiability is appropriate for intelligence statements, or even the vast majority of statements by political actors. Your concern is not unreasonable. These indications being published by POTUS and the US State Department and the decision to evacuate Ukraine, are plausibly de-escalation techniques. Diplomatically, the goal may be to delay a potential but uncertain invasion by announcing it ahead of time. Like most good diplomacy, it offers Russia a carrot--both sides get something and both sides risk or lose something. Russia can damage US and NATO credibility by proving them wrong. Don't invade next week. If this technique can be used to delay a possible Russian invasion at expense of that credibility, then it may meet certain US/State Department goals.
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Feb 13, 2022 14:48
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piL posted:I believe this is the second time I've noticed "falsifiable" being used in this context--I don't think an expectation of fasifiability is appropriate for intelligence statements, or even the vast majority of statements by political actors. I think the US is also still reeling from failure to foresee how fast Afghanistan would fall and doesn’t want to make that same mistake. Solaris 2.0 fucked around with this message at 15:01 on Feb 13, 2022 |
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Feb 13, 2022 14:55
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Solaris 2.0 posted:I think the US is also steel reeling from failure to foresee how fast Afghanistan would fall and doesn’t want to make that same mistake. Or more importantly, the blowback from not publicizing it. The US almost certainly forsaw it--the intelligence community is not a singular point of view, it's a library, probably running the gamut from "This almost certainly all bluster" to "Better see if the war started while I was asleep last night." The same thing was almost certainly true in regards to Afghanistan, but I'm sure certain messages were kept close to the vest for fear of saying them into existence. At this point, it's clear: the cost for saying "there's an attack" and then there not being an attack is much lower than the reverse, even if it does cost some credibility to do so.
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Feb 13, 2022 15:00
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https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1492858635290124291
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Feb 13, 2022 15:07
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Is this more or less than usual looks like flights are still happening
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Feb 13, 2022 15:11
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steinrokkan posted:IMO not a "we have proof of WMDs" American ploy, but rather Russian military deliberately using signals they know are being read to keep the tensions at the maximum by making it appear hostilities may start at any moment. This isn't a case of America pressuring another country into war, this is exactly what Putin wanted, to be at the centre stage of world diplomacy and force everybody to entertain him and his demands while also waiting for the West to make mistakes. Even if it isn't really working. But the US isn't saying "Russia has mobilized forces and could invade at any moment", we're saying "We know that Putin secretly gave the order to invade next week". That's not us reading signals, that's the US government claiming secret knowledge. edit: and in context of some of the government's other recent claims to secret knowledge about Russia, like "They're putting bounties on American soldiers in Afghanistan!" and "They're using death rays to give CIA agents tummy aches!" which proved to not correspond to reality, one would be prudent to take this new claim with a grain of salt. Gripweed fucked around with this message at 15:14 on Feb 13, 2022 |
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Feb 13, 2022 15:12
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Al-Saqr posted:Is this more or less than usual looks like flights are still happening It’s much less than th EU or Russia and roughly the same amount as Belarus who last year hijacked a plane flying through their air space to arrest a single dissident on board. So it’s “maybe the state could hijack us” level
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Feb 13, 2022 15:14
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Gripweed posted:But the US isn't saying "Russia has mobilized forces and could invade at any moment", we're saying "We know that Putin secretly gave the order to invade next week". That's not us reading signals, that's the US government claiming secret knowledge. It is, though? It is gained from intelligence (which I meant by "signals"), which may be misleading on purpose. If Americans end up crying wolf too many times and discredit themselves in the process, it will be a win for Russia. steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 15:18 on Feb 13, 2022 |
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Feb 13, 2022 15:16
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steinrokkan posted:It is, though? It is gained from intelligence (which I meant by "signals"), which may be misleading on purpose. If Americans end up crying wolf too many times and discredit themselves in the process, it will be a win for Russia. I think you are making a perhaps unfounded assumption that the claim is actually based on good intelligence.
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Feb 13, 2022 15:19
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Feb 13, 2022 15:21
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Gripweed posted:But the US isn't saying "Russia has mobilized forces and could invade at any moment", we're saying "We know that Putin secretly gave the order to invade next week". I'm sure it's somewhere in the last 5 pages, but its hard to keep up. Can you show the source for this? Most of what I can Google suggests much less authoritative language than what you're describing.
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Feb 13, 2022 15:40
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piL posted:I'm sure it's somewhere in the last 5 pages, but its hard to keep up. Can you show the source for this? Most of what I can Google suggests much less authoritative language than what you're describing. So more accurately, someone "leaked" the formulation he used, then the official statement denied it. Now often times "leaks" are the administration (or business, or whatever) playing games and trying to say things w/o officially saying them, while it can also be someone's own opinion that's disconnected from the official overall viewpoint.
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Feb 13, 2022 15:43
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Gripweed posted:I think you are making a perhaps unfounded assumption that the claim is actually based on good intelligence. Not for nothing, but countries like South Korea and Saudi Arabia have started advising nationals to leave, and they don't really give a poo poo about Eastern Europe great power politics.
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