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Conspiratiorist posted:What response? More arms being sent to Ukraine and all of Europe accelerating their plans to divest from Russian oil imports. I guess I could be buying the hype and Majorian is right, everyone will have forgotten about this six months from now. I wouldn't be very happy if one of my neighbors decided to make a habit of relocating a ton of their armed forces to my borders every year. It's not something you can allow yourself to become complacent with. Who knows though. Maybe this is just the new normal
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Feb 15, 2022 03:43
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OddObserver posted:Chomskyite racism What is this referring to
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Feb 15, 2022 03:44
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PIZZA.BAT posted:I agree with you but there's one thing: just their threats, which to make no mistake these are huge threats, is resulting in and going to result in pretty heavy consequences for them. So they not only have the cost of this massive movement but also they'll be dealing with the blowback from this for quite some time. It could be argued that Putin didn't expect the response they've been getting so far from this and maybe will now try to back down while losing a minimal amount of face, but the problem with that is this bluff was one hell of a bluff if so. It's hard to believe that Putin *wouldn't* expect there to be a huge response to this. Just by getting to where we are now has been reckless and self-defeating. This is what I keep coming back to when I tell myself surely an invasion would be a colossal mistake. He could have kept eastern Ukraine destabilized just fine with a fraction of what he now has sitting on the border. If that was his goal then why did he go and screw the pooch like this? Yeah, I largely agree - I'd put my likelihood of invasion number a bit lower than you do, but otherwise I think your analysis is on-point. I think Putin didn't expect what was originally just another round of annual saber-rattling on the border with Ukraine to garner this insane level of attention from the international media. He felt he had to keep amassing more and more troops and hardware to make the most of the opportunity, and now he's holding out for some good concessions so he can declare victory and bring the boys back home. I think even if Putin doesn't manage to wring anything out of Ukraine or the West over the next couple weeks, he'll still be able to cut bait and save face. He's made it clear that Ukraine's probably never going to get to join NATO or the EU, and the Russian media will spin the whole affair as their country showing that it can stand toe-to-toe with the U.S. again. Whether or not that second point is strictly true is beside the point. Flavahbeast posted:If he quietly winds down the mobilization I don't think he'll suffer too many external consequences from this other than every Ukrainian soldier in Donbass dual wielding javelins. He can even quip a few zingers at all the international hysteria triggered by a few ~exercises~ Yeah, exactly. "Look at these weak Europeans making GBS threads their diapers over us just conducting some exercises!" is the sort of headline that the Russian press loves. (paraphrasing, of course) Majorian fucked around with this message at 03:52 on Feb 15, 2022 |
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Feb 15, 2022 03:49
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PIZZA.BAT posted:More arms being sent to Ukraine and all of Europe accelerating their plans to divest from Russian oil imports. I guess I could be buying the hype and Majorian is right, everyone will have forgotten about this six months from now. I wouldn't be very happy if one of my neighbors decided to make a habit of relocating a ton of their armed forces to my borders every year. It's not something you can allow yourself to become complacent with. Who knows though. Maybe this is just the new normal Other than token shows of support and loving BoJo double swearing they'll enter a mutual defense pact with Ukraine, Russia's force concentration has not initiated or accelerated any meaningful geopol moves. Maybe Qatar's near future status as US Major Non-NATO ally? But they were already hosting CENTCOM so this could just be shaking off the embarrassment that was allowing the Saudi blockade during Trump. On the contrary, what I'm not seeing is serious proposals for comprehensive, unified sanctions that the West has had 3 months to draft. It's been nothing but hot air so far.
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Feb 15, 2022 03:51
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Conspiratiorist posted:Other than token shows of support and loving BoJo double swearing they'll enter a mutual defense pact with Ukraine, Russia's force concentration has not initiated or accelerated any meaningful geopol moves. Maybe Qatar's near future status as US Major Non-NATO ally? But they were already hosting CENTCOM so this could just be shaking off the embarrassment that was allowing the Saudi blockade during Trump. Yeah fair enough. The actual response to this is what will dictate the calculus moving forwards. I still think divestment on oil imports is the most likely outcome, but that involves long term infrastructure projects so we potentially won't know the actual fallout for years.
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Feb 15, 2022 04:02
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 (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Somebody fucked around with this message at 04:33 on Feb 15, 2022 |
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Feb 15, 2022 04:25
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Majorian posted:I think Putin didn't expect what was originally just another round of annual saber-rattling on the border with Ukraine to garner this insane level of attention from the international media. Annual round? The force buildup reached peak 2014-2015 levels... in April. RusMil starts moving tons of poo poo in October. No open mass troop movements at this point, mostly equipment. Early November Belarus and Russia sign a ton of integration deals involving Military C&C, economics, and migratory policy. At this point it becomes obvious that something strange is going on, as the primary fighting elements for the Russian military, already in their operating theatres, begin movements under opsec into and around the border regions with Ukraine. The CIA Director visits Russia to speak with Putin specifically about Ukrainian troop build ups. A week later snap exercises and formation drills begin in the Western and Southern Military Districts, and soon after theater-level assets are spotted being pushed to the front, indicating multi-division escalation, while reserve vehicles are pulled out of central reserve unit depots. This latter part is something that never happens for exercises, as it's a huge logistical strain and you'd only do it if you expect to lose tons of vehicles or are snap forming new units. This is now mid-November, and international media finally notices as a vast mobilization of material from all military districts begins to make its way on rail towards the Ukrainian border alongside rumors of personnel activations, and then the Belarusian and Black Sea exercises are announced as if to explain them away. So I don't believe this was some kind of annual thing that got out of hand. RusMil spent months moving equipment for something big before the media noticed, and this is in the context of Russia shuttling currency into their foreign monetary reserves for the better part of the past 3 years, which is now at an all-time high despite the pandemic. Conspiratiorist fucked around with this message at 05:28 on Feb 15, 2022 |
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Feb 15, 2022 04:52
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PIZZA.BAT posted:Yeah fair enough. The actual response to this is what will dictate the calculus moving forwards. I still think divestment on oil imports is the most likely outcome, but that involves long term infrastructure projects so we potentially won't know the actual fallout for years. They can't do poo poo is the thing. Russia exports equivalent of US on petroleum + petroleum product exports. US supplies all of Latin America with the majority of their road fuels. Even Brazil imports more than 25% of their fuels despite massive ethanol and biodiesel uptick and large refining network. Imagine zeroing out all of that oil supply -- what happens? It's gigantic. It would throw world into a global recession near overnight, particularly hurting all of Europe. US could divert their minimal import flows of russian diesel and buy more Saudi crude and fuel oil, but Europe is absolutely screwed, especially central Europe as they really rely on Druzbha pipeline to move Russian Ural crude into their refineries. So what realistically can they sanction energy related? Well, if they sanction nord stream 2, it just makes natural gas forever expensive and similarly ruins global economy. If they sanction russian ammonia and Belarusian potash, we get more expensive food because crop yields collapse. I could go down the list-- each and every one Europe and greater world loses big time. Sanctions WILL backfire. It does not help that this is one of tightest commodity markets in last 15 years. Can you meaningfully cut their arctic exploration or whatever Obama did back in 2014 -- sure but it doesn't matter. Russia is too big to sanction meaningfully. It is entirely optics that anyone can sanction them and/or will it meaningfully influence their decision making Brogeoisie fucked around with this message at 05:09 on Feb 15, 2022 |
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Feb 15, 2022 05:02
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That's not inaccurate but I assure you the sanctions against Russia are going to hurt them a hell of a lot more than what the can do to Europe and the United States. Granted, pain will be felt on both sides.
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Feb 15, 2022 05:10
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Zedhe Khoja posted:The ban on arming them ended half a decade ago unless there was a second go of it. Seems weird of someone who posts about this nonstop every day not to know that. The ban seems to have been properly enacted in 2018 and stayed in place since. https://thehill.com/policy/defense/380483-congress-bans-arms-to-controversial-ukrainian-militia-linked-to-neo-nazis You might be thinking of the time in 2016 when the appropriate amendment wasn't included in the spending bill. https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/congress-has-removed-a-ban-on-funding-neo-nazis-from-its-year-end-spending-bill/
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Feb 15, 2022 05:14
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That's why you dont't sanction industries or SWIFT; you sanction individuals, their families, and assets.
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Feb 15, 2022 06:03
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Unsurprisingly the petro state will suffer less oil shortages than the rest of the world. Alas oil isnt everything
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Feb 15, 2022 06:04
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https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1493381856393375745 It's the little things.
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Feb 15, 2022 06:18
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They often don't use them even at actual parades. https://www.autonews.ru/news/5eeb689e9a79474019944841
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Feb 15, 2022 06:35
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Is there like an official money for repairing roads after tank parades gently caress them up, budget? I'm sort of expecting the answer is no. 
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Feb 15, 2022 06:44
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Zedhe Khoja posted:The ban on arming them ended half a decade ago unless there was a second go of it. Seems weird of someone who posts about this nonstop every day not to know that. The ban was lifted in 2015, and reinstated in 2018. https://thehill.com/policy/defense/380483-congress-bans-arms-to-controversial-ukrainian-militia-linked-to-neo-nazis Majorian posted:I'll take your word for it - I definitely believe that the polling is not clear-cut anywhere in a country as big as Ukraine (although I'll read what you had to say if you'd like to dig it up - I'm always interested in learning something new). But my point is less that polling affects present-day defenses and more that broad popular resistance to being occupied by Russia would probably lead to (well-funded, well-armed) uprisings, necessitating a costly, bloody counterinsurgency campaign by Russia. As the U.S. learned the hard way in Iraq, insurgencies can make rebuilding the economies and infrastructures of recently-conquered regions all the more difficult. My overarching thesis here is that Russia's already going to take a big economic hit if it invades, to the point where it would probably impact how well they can conduct a campaign of conquest and occupation. It's high risk, with no guaranteed reward. We’re in full agreement here, that thewould-be occupation force would have major insurgency concerns in pretty much anywhere - especially in the major cities of Ukraine.
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Feb 15, 2022 08:32
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I was gonna say earlier today, taking Kiev and occupying all of Ukraine would be utter lunacy. Which isn't to say it's impossible, major global powers have made comparably stupid decisions within my lifetime. But 'invasion' (which isn't guaranteed either but worries me) and 'conquest of the country' are not the same thing. An occupation force in the bits already controlled by pro-Russian militias would, presumably, face MUCH fewer insurgency issues.
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Feb 15, 2022 08:49
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if only because the pro-Russian militias have already... handled any local-minority insurgency issues over the last 6-8 years
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Feb 15, 2022 08:52
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GreyjoyBastard posted:An occupation force in the bits already controlled by pro-Russian militias would, presumably, face MUCH fewer insurgency issues. Considering that everyone important in those “militias” is a Russian soldiers, PMC, or intelligence asset, I’m not sure that’s a useful distinction.
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Feb 15, 2022 08:55
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Majorian posted:although I'll read what you had to say if you'd like to dig it up I'll quote a post slightly preceding my conversation with Koos, and then link our conversation underneath the quote. cinci zoo sniper posted:I don't dispute that report, but please don't link 100-page PDFs with no further specifiers and expect people to talk to you about it. https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3765883&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=440#post521319953 https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3765883&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=440#post521320386 https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3765883&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=441#post521322984 https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3765883&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=441#post521325205 https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3765883&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=441#post521326184 https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3765883&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=441#post521328273 https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3765883&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=441#post521328315
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Feb 15, 2022 09:23
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Given the reporting of the Putin-Lavrov meeting yesterday it seems like the off-ramp option they are going for to protect Putin is "I was totally going to do it, but then Lavrov talked me down". But the framing was very much 'gosh it looks like war is inevitable unless there are last second concessions'. E: looks like today is the day of truth then: https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1493502755440570370?t=HxzzCUwq221UgTecRgddHA&s=19 Either demobilisation will look real or it won't. Alchenar fucked around with this message at 09:34 on Feb 15, 2022 |
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Feb 15, 2022 09:25
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Usually, the minister gets to be the idiot when this trope plays out, but I guess Lavrov is a bit too expensive for that. At the same time, this could also be going the other way - "well, we really tried, even benevolently stepping moving on from their obstinacy, but the situation could have not been helped".
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Feb 15, 2022 09:28
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Considering the Russian MoD lies about everything and anything I'd wait for third party confirmation before believing anything they say.
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Feb 15, 2022 10:01
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Alchenar posted:Given the reporting of the Putin-Lavrov meeting yesterday it seems like the off-ramp option they are going for to protect Putin is "I was totally going to do it, but then Lavrov talked me down". another nothingburger
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Feb 15, 2022 10:12
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Alchenar posted:Given the reporting of the Putin-Lavrov meeting yesterday it seems like the off-ramp option they are going for to protect Putin is "I was totally going to do it, but then Lavrov talked me down". Maybe they just forgot something at the base?
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Feb 15, 2022 10:17
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GABA ghoul posted:Maybe they just forgot something at the base? Like rubber parade treads
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Feb 15, 2022 10:49
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Well, that makes it seem much less likely that anything of substance will happen now, which is great. I wasn't super psyched to have rationed heating in my apartment for the next two winters, plus whatever other Russian and Belorussian exports being axed would affect. I guess only Putin and maybe a handful of other people know if it was really just an exercise and Western hysteria, or if it was a potentially bigger move.
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Feb 15, 2022 10:49
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Majorian posted:Yeah, exactly. "Look at these weak Europeans making GBS threads their diapers over us just conducting some exercises!" is the sort of headline that the Russian press loves. (paraphrasing, of course) Sure but the reaction in the West is not just about Russian military maneuvers on the border. Russia issued a list of demands and stated negotiations had to be concluded swiftly while massing unprecedented troop numbers on their border. How exactly are people supposed to interpret it? Russia can spin it any way they want for domestic purposes but if this isn't designed as a threat then what is? Russia issued a threat as explicit as it can be without saying it out loud and it was taken seriously as it should be.
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Feb 15, 2022 10:54
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Now I'd like to see how much this stupid loving flex costed (in addition to another kick in ruble's balls)
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Feb 15, 2022 10:54
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This is the 'lol, made you form up a defense fleet' puppetmaster reasoning from Eve Online.
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Feb 15, 2022 11:10
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CeeJee posted:This is the 'lol, made you form up a defense fleet' puppetmaster reasoning from Eve Online. It's just a prank, bro!
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Feb 15, 2022 11:16
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Spending a few billion dollars and tanking your stockmarket 10% to own the libs e: yeah as I said, by the end of today we will know if this is actually happening. Also the real question is not what the West or South Districts are doing, but what happens to all the Eastern District kit and personnel. Alchenar fucked around with this message at 11:31 on Feb 15, 2022 |
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Feb 15, 2022 11:22
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I’m inclined to agree with BM. Let’s wait for clean satellite photos before celebrating.
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Feb 15, 2022 11:26
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They pulled similar stunts in Crimea. Yeah, totally pulling back our "peacekeepers", what are you even worrying about hysterical westerners  *leave unmarked special forces behind, organizes fake referendum and annex everything*
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Feb 15, 2022 11:36
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I’m inclined to agree with BM. Let’s wait for clean satellite photos before celebrating. I want to believe, hopefully it's not the set up for a false flag.
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Feb 15, 2022 11:36
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https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/1493534030943375362?t=5Vn0Vd_cGPTP_VFSLfJu4Q&s=19 Once Putin signs it, Russian troops in Donbas could operate openly and act as tripwire forces there indefinitely
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Feb 15, 2022 11:56
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GABA ghoul posted:https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/1493534030943375362?t=5Vn0Vd_cGPTP_VFSLfJu4Q&s=19 Yeah I'd definitely wait for the dust to settle on this before celebrating anything. That was kind of the whole reason these "exercises" were much more intense.
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Feb 15, 2022 12:02
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GABA ghoul posted:https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/1493534030943375362?t=5Vn0Vd_cGPTP_VFSLfJu4Q&s=19 Didn't one of the doom and gloom tweets predict this? Or was this vote publically known?
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Feb 15, 2022 12:36
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Trump posted:Didn't one of the doom and gloom tweets predict this? Or was this vote publically known? It was known for a couple of days that there'd be a vote this week (don't remember if it was supposed to be today specifically).
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Feb 15, 2022 12:44
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Trump posted:Didn't one of the doom and gloom tweets predict this? Or was this vote publically known? Yes, it was set to voting few days ago In a funny turn of events this one was proposed by non-dominant party - CPRF; it is extremely inflammatory worded BUT obviously United Russia cant allow to vote against recognizing DNR (dont want to be seen as traitors or weaklings)... so they proposed another appeal, that sends the final decision to be DISCUSSED with Foreign Ministry (and, presumably, to be set on hold eternally). So there are going to be two unanimously approved conflicting Appeals. Clown show fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 12:55 on Feb 15, 2022 |
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Feb 15, 2022 12:48
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